Bolsover

[carlton43]

I elect to do this entry in due course.

[Robert Waller]

2011 Census

Age 65+ 18.5% 203/650
Owner-occupied 66.7% 335/650
Private rented 12.1% 455/650
Social rented 19.5% 231/650
White 98.1% 110/650
Black 0.4% 420/650
Asian 0.8% 559/650
Managerial & professional 22.8%
Routine & Semi-routine 37.0%
(Routine 19.3% 9/650)
Degree level 16.3% 606/650
No qualifications 32.8% 45/650
Students 5.5% 579/650

2021 Census

Owner occupied 66.4% 274/573
Private rented 16.2% 378/573
Social rented 17.4% 212/573
White 97.4%
Black 0.5%
Asian 0.9%
Managerial & professional 25.2% 481/573
Routine & Semi-routine 33.6% 25/573
Degree level 22.2% 541/573
No qualifications 24.0% 66/573



General Election 2019: Bolsover

Party Candidate Votes % ±%

Conservative Mark Fletcher 21,791 47.4 +6.9
Labour Dennis Skinner 16,492 35.9 -16.0
Brexit Party Kevin Harper 4,151 9.0
Liberal Democrats David Hancock 1,759 3.8 +0.9
Green David Kesteven 758 1.7
Independent Ross Walker 517 1.1
Independent Natalie Hoy 470 1.0

C Majority 5,299 11.5

Turnout 45,938 61.1 -2.2

Conservative gain from Labour

Swing 11.5 Lab to C

[Robert Waller]

If you drive on the M1 through Derbyshire, for close to twenty miles you’ll be passing through the length of the Bolsover parliamentary constituency. The scenery is not spectacularly pleasant – this is not the Peak District National Park; that lies in the western half of the county – but it is attractive enough. Just over half way up (if you are travelling north), look to the east and there will be Bolsover Castle, on its dominant lofty eminence. The two versions of Hardwick Hall, medieval ruin and Elizabethan crystal palace, are in the seat too. At no point is it obvious that this part of England used to be - for one year short of half a century - one of Labour’s most renowned strongholds, the lair of the so-called Beast of Bolsover, the MP most known for his vocal and virulent anti-Tory interventions in the House of Commons: Dennis Skinner. It was thus one of the most prominent bricks in the so-called Red Wall that fell decisively to the Conservatives in the December 2019 general election.

Why was Bolsover so strongly partisan Labour? And why is it no longer? Is this a profound and long lasting psephological change, or a short lived reversal of character?

The reason it was so solidly ‘red’ from its creation in 1950 (as was its predecessor Clay Cross since 1922) lies beneath those green fields next to the motorway: this was the heart of the once extensive east Derbyshire coalfield. Skinner came from a long-standing mining family and had worked underground himself, before becoming the president of the Derbyshire region of the NUM at the age of 32. At the time of the publication of the first edition of the Almanac of British Politics in 1983 Bolsover was still the constituency in Britain with the highest proportion employed in coal mining. That year was sandwiched between the great and effective coal strikes of the 1970s and the even greater but far less successful one on 1984-85. It is hardly surprising that it returned a Labour majority of 14,000 even in Thatcher’s greatest landslide nationally. In the Bolsover council elections of that year (May 1983) 35 Labour members were returned, two Independents and no-one else. In 10 wards Labour were returned completely unopposed. There was a total of seven Conservative candidates, all of whom but one finished bottom of the poll in their wards.

By 2019 all the mines in the Bolsover seat were long closed. This is still a predominantly working class area: in the most recent available census it was in the top ten of the 650 constituencies as far as proportion of ‘routine’ workers are concerned. But instead of the highly unionised and class aware coal miners, the typical large scale employment is in the huge warehouses such as the Sports Direct complex at Shirebrook, with its migrant workers from eastern Europe and zero hours contracts. There are extensive industrial and retail estates, such as at the Designer Outlet East Midlands near South Normanton. There is also a lot of newish and often relatively low-cost private housing, for example at Barlborough in the north of the seat. Evidence of the former coalfield has gradually disappeared beneath the landscaping and the re-purposing – and the political tradition seems to have been re-thought as well.

The Bolsover seat saw one of the biggest swings in the December 2019 election, 11.5% from Labour (who lost 16%) to the Conservatives. This was despite any residual personal vote for 87 year old Dennis Skinner, the member here since 1970, who did stand again, although ill health prevented active campaigning and his presence at the count and declaration. Most explanations of this apparent political earthquake have centred on Labour’s apparent reluctance to support the implementation of Brexit in the three years since the referendum (despite Skinner’s own lifelong left-wing Euroscepticism). It is true that Bolsover is estimated to have voted to Leave by just over 70%. If that is the case, then, as in other similar Tory gains in 2019, a reversal might be expected as the European obsession fades.

However there is evidence that there is in fact a long-term transformation which goes well beyond the Brexit issue. Labour’s share had been falling before 2016 – the 15% drop between 2005 and 2010, for example, cannot be explained away by the relatively minor boundary changes between those elections. Yes, UKIP took substantial shares (21% in 2015 being the highest), but when this faded it was the Conservatives who benefited, not Skinner. What is more, the 2019 swing was repeated in the May 2021 Derbyshire county council elections.

The Bolsover constituency consists of a number of small towns or large villages, many formerly based on collieries, along both sides of the M1 corridor. Starting from the south, we find Pinxton, South Normanton (South Normo to its inhabitants), Blackwell, Tibshelf, Pilsley, Holmewood, Shirebrook, Bolsover itself, Clowne, Creswell (with its Crags containing late Pleistocene cave-art), Barlborough and Whitwell. All of these communities have populations between 3,000 and 13,000. This is emphatically not metropolitan Britain or city Britain. It is also not multi-ethnic. In 2011 Bolsover constituency was over 98% white. It was 19th out of 650 in the list of proportion born in England (95.6%), though those born in the ‘new EU’ may have increased since then. In 2021 the Conservatives gained the following county divisions from Labour: Barlborough & Clowne (with a swing of 18.45% since 2017), South Normanton & Pinxton (10.0%), Sutton (14.15%), and Tibshelf (11.3%). Labour just held three county seats entirely within the current constituency boundaries, essentially those in Bolsover itself (narrowly) and Shirebrook. The Conservatives would have again led across the constituency.

This suggests that the Tories can win again here in the next general election, not least as Mark Fletcher will have built up some incumbency votes and will not be facing the Skinner name, and already has a majority of over 5,000. The boundary changes proposed by the Commission are minor and merely tidy up afterward boundaries have fallen out of line with that of the constituency. There has been talk that the fall in ‘shares in Boris’ might affect the so-called red wall seats most, but that seems doubtful. In fact, it is quite possible that Labour could become the largest party and form the next government without Bolsover or its ilk. There seems to be a long term shift from class voting cleavages to considerations of ethnicity, age, urban versus more rural, city vis-a-vis town, education and culture in general. Parallels with the USA must be to some extent fanciful, but when looking at the ex-coalfields in England, West Virginia somehow comes to mind – once one of the most Democratic states in the nation, absolutely not now. Could the beast of Bolsover in fact be likened to a dinosaur, or a resident of Creswell Crags? Maybe not, but (changing) time(s) will tell.


Statistics and election results in previous post.

Profile written in response to the list of John Chanin

[carlton43]

Apr 26, 2022 13:45:08 GMT Robert Waller said:

If you drive on the M1 through Derbyshire, for close to twenty miles you’ll be passing through the length of the Bolsover parliamentary constituency. The scenery is not spectacularly pleasant – this is not the Peak District National Park; that lies in the western half of the county – but it is attractive enough. Just over half way up (if you are travelling north), look to the east and there will be Bolsover Castle, on its dominant crag. The two versions of Hardwick Hall, medieval ruin and Elizabethan crystal palace, are in the seat too. At no point is it obvious that this part of England used to be - for one year short of half a century - one of Labour’s most renowned strongholds, the lair of the so-called Beast of Bolsover, the MP most known for his vocal and virulent anti-Tory interventions in the House of Commons: Dennis Skinner. It was thus one of the most prominent bricks in the so-called Red Wall that fell decisively to the Conservatives in the December 2019 general election.

Why was Bolsover so strongly partisan Labour? And why is it no longer? Is this a profound and long lasting psephological change, or a short lived reversal of character?

The reason it was so solidly ‘red’ from its creation in 1950 (as was its predecessor Clay Cross since 1922) lies beneath those green fields next to the motorway: this was the heart of the once extensive east Derbyshire coalfield. Skinner came from a long-standing mining family and had worked underground himself, before becoming the president of the Derbyshire region of the NUM at the age of 32. At the time of the publication of the first edition of the Almanac of British Politics in 1983 Bolsover was still the constituency in Britain with the highest proportion employed in coal mining. That year was sandwiched between the great and effective coal strikes of the 1970s and the even greater but far less successful one on 1984-85. It is hardly surprising that it returned a Labour majority of 14,000 even in Thatcher’s greatest landslide nationally. In the Bolsover council elections of that year (May 1983) 35 Labour members were returned, two Independents and no-one else. In 10 wards Labour were returned completely unopposed. There was a total of seven Conservative candidates, all of whom but one finished bottom of the poll in their wards.

By 2019 all the mines in the Bolsover seat were long closed. This is still a predominantly working class area: in the most recent available census it was in the top ten of the 650 constituencies as far as proportion of ‘routine’ workers are concerned. But instead of the highly unionised and class aware coal miners, the typical large scale employment is in the huge warehouses such as the Sports Direct complex at Shirebrook, with its migrant workers from eastern Europe and zero hours contracts. There are extensive industrial and retail estates, such as at the Designer Outlet East Midlands near South Normanton. There is also a lot of newish and often relatively low-cost private housing, for example at Barlborough in the north of the seat. Evidence of the former coalfield has gradually disappeared beneath the landscaping and the re-purposing – and the political tradition seems to have been re-thought as well.

The Bolsover seat saw one of the biggest swings in the December 2019 election, 11.5% from Labour (who lost 16%) to the Conservatives. This was despite any residual personal vote for 87 year old Dennis Skinner, the member here since 1970, who did stand again, although ill health prevented active campaigning and his presence at the count and declaration. Most explanations of this apparent political earthquake have centred on Labour’s apparent reluctance to support the implementation of Brexit in the three years since the referendum (despite Skinner’s own lifelong left-wing Euroscepticism). It is true that Bolsover is estimated to have voted to Leave by just over 70%. If that is the case, then, as in other similar Tory gains in 2019, a reversal might be expected as the European obsession fades.

However there is evidence that there is in fact a long-term transformation which goes well beyond the Brexit issue. Labour’s share had been falling before 2016 – the 15% drop between 2005 and 2010, for example, cannot be explained away by the relatively minor boundary changes between those elections. Yes, UKIP took substantial shares (21% in 2015 being the highest), but when this faded it was the Conservatives who benefited, not Skinner. What is more, the 2019 swing was repeated in the May 2021 Derbyshire county council elections.

The Bolsover constituency consists of a number of small towns or large villages, many formerly based on collieries, along both sides of the M1 corridor. Starting form the south, we find Pinxton, South Normanton (South Normo to its inhabitants), Blackwell, Tibshelf, Pilsley, Holmewood, Shirebrook, Bolsover itself, Clowne, Creswell (with its crags containing late Pleistocene cave-art), Barlborough and Whitwell. All of these communities have populations between 3,000 and 13,000. This is emphatically not metropolitan Britain or city Britain. It is also not multi-ethnic. In 2011 Bolsover constituency was over 98% white. It was 19th out of 650 in the list of proportion born in England (95.6%), though those born in the ‘new EU’ may have increased since then. In 2021 the Conservatives gained the following county divisions from Labour: Barlborough & Clowne (with a swing of 18.45% since 2017), South Normanton & Pinxton (10.0%), Sutton (14.15%), and Tibshelf (11.3%). Labour just held three county seats entirely within the current constituency boundaries, essentially those in Bolsover itself (narrowly) and Shirebrook. The Conservatives would have again led across the constituency.

This suggests that the Tories can win again here in the next general election, not least as Mark Fletcher will have built up some incumbency votes and will not be facing the Skinner name, and already has a majority of over 5,000. The boundary changes proposed by the Commission are minor and merely tidy up afterward boundaries have fallen out of line with that of the constituency. There has been talk that the fall in ‘shares in Boris’ might affect the so-called red wall seats most, but that seems doubtful. In fact, it is quite possible that Labour could become the largest party and form the next government without Bolsover or its ilk. There seems to be a long term shift from class voting cleavages to considerations of ethnicity, age, urban versus more rural, city and town, education and culture in general. Parallels with the USA must be to some extent fanciful, but when looking at the ex-coalfields in England, West Virginia somehow comes to mind – once one of the most Democratic states in the nation, absolutely not now. Could the beast of Bolsover in fact be likened to a dinosaur, or a resident of Creswell Crags? Maybe not, but (changing) time(s) will tell.


Statistics and election results in previous post.

Profile written in response to the list of John Chanin

That is an excellent thumbnail of a constituency I know well and frequently drive through.  I live to the west in Sheffield Heeley and used to live to the east three decades ago in Bassetlaw.

I have seen and witnessed from afar the gradual transition of the constituency as coal and allied industries declined, new service industries took over, but most of all the demographics changed with new housing estates, gentrification of many sub areas and the dying out of generations of tribal Labour voters.  All these trends have coalesced to cause a mammoth change in complexion.

I postulated on this Forum the likelihood of a transition to a marginal status followed by being a long term gain and hold and was roundly derided for saying so, because those not on the ground thought in terms of the 'same people' changing coats.  It was never that.  It was the steep and often early death rate of former miners and the large inflow of new home owners that has had the major effect.

It is an area of great interest for those wishing to research industrial inter-related communities, the dominance of coal and rail, and earlier history through the excellent castle where I have helped to hang art exhibitions, and the quite amazing Hardwicks imperious on their ridge.  The Crags and caves are also near unique in importance and worth a visit, as are many of the villages that are going up-market year-on-year.

I met Skinner quite often decades ago and he had genuine rapport and charm that created a strong personal vote of people normally Conservative.  He was an acknowledged expert on flora and fauna of Derbyshire ridge  and Peak areas.  Much more to him than the knock-about stuff in HOC.  He played up to an image much as I have done.  The truth was rather different.  I miss him.  Very good MP but went on too long.

[sirbenjamin]

I always find it interesting to read profiles of constituencies/areas about which I know absolutely fuck-all, of which this is a fine example.

I'm not convinced I have ever visited this seat, and quite possibly only passed through it a handful of times in my life, such as on the train between Nottingham and Chesterfield. I have had a taxi driver talking extremely positively about his then-MP Skinner, but that journey took place entirely within neighbouring Amber Valley.

Bolsover itself does have a Wetherspoons, so I shall probably get there eventually to tick it off the list.

[Pete Whitehead]

I've been through it often enough on the M1 and as recently as within the last 12 months, but I've never really visited it other than once going to Shirebrook (which I would have done as an extension of a tour of Mansfield from a Nottingham base). It was extremely grim then but this probably getting on for 20 years ago and in any case that always probably was (and still is) the grimmest part of the constituency.

[therealriga]

Is there any commuter element at all to this? Parts of it look 35 minutes' drive from Central Sheffield.

[Robert Waller]

Apr 26, 2022 19:34:00 GMT therealriga said:

Is there any commuter element at all to this? Parts of it look 35 minutes' drive from Central Sheffield.

Barlborough maybe. Take a street view tour round the new estates there, definitely upmarket compared with most of the Bolsover seat.
Some Sheffield workers certainly have looked for cheaper (tax) housing over the border in Derbyshire. See Gosforth Valley near Dronfield (in NE Derbyshire) for example.

[YL]

Apr 26, 2022 19:34:00 GMT therealriga said:

Is there any commuter element at all to this? Parts of it look 35 minutes' drive from Central Sheffield.

I've heard of people commuting in from Barlborough and also from Bolsover town.

[batman]

Apr 26, 2022 17:43:18 GMT sirbenjamin said:

I always find it interesting to read profiles of constituencies/areas about which I know absolutely fuck-all, of which this is a fine example.

I'm not convinced I have ever visited this seat, and quite possibly only passed through it a handful of times in my life, such as on the train between Nottingham and Chesterfield. I have had a taxi driver talking extremely positively about his then-MP Skinner, but that journey took place entirely within neighbouring Amber Valley.

Bolsover itself does have a Wetherspoons, so I shall probably get there eventually to tick it off the list.

I visited Hardwick Hall, so have been to the constituency.

[Deleted]

Apr 26, 2022 22:11:43 GMT batman said:

Apr 26, 2022 17:43:18 GMT sirbenjamin said:

I always find it interesting to read profiles of constituencies/areas about which I know absolutely fuck-all, of which this is a fine example.

I'm not convinced I have ever visited this seat, and quite possibly only passed through it a handful of times in my life, such as on the train between Nottingham and Chesterfield. I have had a taxi driver talking extremely positively about his then-MP Skinner, but that journey took place entirely within neighbouring Amber Valley.

Bolsover itself does have a Wetherspoons, so I shall probably get there eventually to tick it off the list.

I visited Hardwick Hall, so have been to the constituency.

Hardwick Hall is beautiful, with all those windows. I've spent time in Penistone & Stocksbridge so came here. I've not been to the castle yet.

[swanarcadian]

The defeat of a man with 49 years’ service was the biggest psychological shock factor here. Had Skinner retired years ago (IIRC it was originally going to be as long ago as 1997), the defeat of whoever would have replaced him would have been no more remarkable than in other seats Labour lost in 2019.

[jamie]

Apr 26, 2022 19:34:00 GMT therealriga said:

Is there any commuter element at all to this? Parts of it look 35 minutes' drive from Central Sheffield.

Parts of South Normanton in the far south of the constituency are also very nice and have been built in recent decades. Not Sheffield commuters in this case but Nottingham I assume. 

[bsjmcr]

Apr 27, 2022 21:13:41 GMT jamie said:

Apr 26, 2022 19:34:00 GMT therealriga said:

Is there any commuter element at all to this? Parts of it look 35 minutes' drive from Central Sheffield.

Parts of South Normanton in the far south of the constituency are also very nice and have been built in recent decades. Not Sheffield commuters in this case but Nottingham I assume. 

I believe that is where Skinner is based? I guess “Beast of South Normanton” doesn’t quite have the same ring to it.