Wallasey

[Merseymike]

I can't find a general discussion board for the almanac any more but I can do this seat plus Birkenhead, Wirral West and Wirral South.

[Merseymike]

Wallasey is one of four seats covering the metropolitan part of the Wirral peninsula – the north-east of Wirral. It is one of the few seats where the boundaries have remained much the same throughout its existence, and since 1997, its results have indicated that it is a safe Labour seat. Yet it was only won by Labour in 1992, although marginal since the 1960’s, without ever having been taken by Labour.

It is also a seat where local results have often flattered to deceive for the Conservatives. The constituency consists of six wards, two of which are usually Conservative, the middle class residential wards of Wallasey itself, which has been Labour in the odd very good year, and Moreton West and Saughall Massie, which the Conservatives have always held. There is a safe Labour ward, which has never been lost, Seacombe , socially similar to the inner city Liverpool and Bootle wards it faces across the Mersey. The other wards are all essentially Labour, but the Conservatives have sometimes performed better than expected – Liscard , Leasowe and Moreton East, and New Brighton have all managed to elect Conservative councillors since 2006, but in both 2015 where the national turnout influenced results, and the last local elections in 2019, all these wards returned healthy Labour majorities. Liscard is the more working class of the three, and New Brighton resembles the areas of Crosby which it faces across the river too – a formerly safe Tory area where Labour are now 40% ahead of their nearest competitors.

Local antagonisms have sometimes been at the heart of Labour’s problems here – the conflicts between the local MP Angela Eagle and the CLP, which has always been left-leaning, have been well documented. Other lapses for Labour have been less easily explained – the Conservatives beat a well known local actress in what was considered a safe seat in the Leasowe and Moreton East by-election in 2013, and this was explained at the time by a strong local Conservative organisation. However, this does not appear to have sustained, and the Conservatives now hold only their two relatively safe wards, with Labour holding the remainder.

This is a largely residential seat, with many Liverpool commuters and a branch of the Mersey tunnel emerging at Seacombe. Its political progress from Tory marginal to safe Labour seat appears unlikely to be reversed and to that extent, it reflects its location as part of the Liverpool City Region. But it does have areas of poverty, particularly in Seacombe and Liscard, as well as its leafier suburban areas - nevertheless, it is probably far more securely Labour than it would be in other parts of the country, although not to the extent of the nearby Wirral West seat

[Lord Twaddleford]

No mention of this seat's most infamous former member?

[AdminSTB]

May 26, 2020 14:58:33 GMT Lord Twaddleford said:

No mention of this seat's most infamous former member?

Lynda Chalker also. I don't think her 1992 loss was any personal reflection on her. Arguably she could claim to be the Tories' second most senior female MP after Mrs T.

[Merseymike]

May 26, 2020 17:11:54 GMT AdminSTB said:

May 26, 2020 14:58:33 GMT Lord Twaddleford said:

No mention of this seat's most infamous former member?

Lynda Chalker also. I don't think her 1992 loss was any personal reflection on her. Arguably she could claim to be the Tories' second most senior female MP after Mrs T.

Given what Robert Waller said about lawsuits I've tried to avoid any negative comments about MPs past or present

[greenhert]

May 26, 2020 17:11:54 GMT AdminSTB said:

May 26, 2020 14:58:33 GMT Lord Twaddleford said:

No mention of this seat's most infamous former member?

Lynda Chalker also. I don't think her 1992 loss was any personal reflection on her. Arguably she could claim to be the Tories' second most senior female MP after Mrs T.

No it was not-it was a result of long-term demographic change and a decline of the "Merseyside Orange vote" which was also prominent in much of Liverpool. The Conservatives have not even come close to winning Wallasey since Lynda Chalker (now Baroness Chalker) lost this seat.

[Merseymike]

May 26, 2020 19:56:28 GMT greenhert said:

May 26, 2020 17:11:54 GMT AdminSTB said:

Lynda Chalker also. I don't think her 1992 loss was any personal reflection on her. Arguably she could claim to be the Tories' second most senior female MP after Mrs T.

No it was not-it was a result of long-term demographic change and a decline of the "Merseyside Orange vote" which was also prominent in much of Liverpool. The Conservatives have not even come close to winning Wallasey since Lynda Chalker (now Baroness Chalker) lost this seat.

I'm not sure how powerful the Orange vote as such was by then. What was the case was absolute loathing of the Thatcher Government which pretty much killed off Liverpool Conservatism. But by then the old Orange areas were safely Labour. What really did suffer were some of the middle class areas where the Tory vote vanished and that's why by 97 this looked like a safe Labour seat and Labour took Crosby. New Brighton, for example, was always a safe Conservative ward at one time

[hengo]

Demographic change is in many places largely a synonym for immigration, but not really here, unless we mean immigration from across the Mersey, or the four bridges from Birkenhead. That probably has been a factor in turning this constituency from Conservative to safe Labour. Frank Field used to make the point that there was in Birkenhead itself a lack of housing for those seeking a step up. There has been a big drift of the “ upwardly mobile” over the last generation from areas like the North End of Birkenhead out to Wallasey, West and South Wirral where a much wider range of housing is available.

[Deleted]

My partner lives in Liscard (long distance relationship!). I visit most weekends. I remember on an earlier version of this forum someone commenting that it is hard to believe that Wallasey was Labour held given some of the houses around here. New Brighton is almost a dictionary definition of "faded seaside glamour", although the front has had a significant "up-do" in terms of investment. One very large pub-restaurant closed before lockdown and another has been tumbling down derelict for years, and I do wonder if circumstances have made the potential to refurb either of these impossible.

Liscard is not exactly down-at-heel but it's rougher and scrappier than it perhaps once was. The main shopping street is looking a touch sad for itself. I tell you what though, there are *tons* of pubs in Liscard, that side of things was certainly healthy last time I visited.

[hengo]

I think New Brighton was at last actually doing reasonably well before the lockdown. The crumbling eyesore you refer to has I believe been bought by Weatherspoons, and there are currently signs at last of some work there, though now who knows what will happen? The history of decline in New Brighton prior to the renovation, funded through the big Morrison’s supermarket is indeed a classic case of poor management by the local authority. When I moved up to this area from London it looked to me an obvious place to relocate - lots of lovely (and cheap) houses running down to the river front.. it looked to be certain to “improve” and shoot up in value. But my new boss, a shrewd Yorkshireman , said “ nay lad, folk have been thinking that for thirty years- look to Deeside”. He was right. But now things are, or were, on the up.

[Devil Wincarnate]

May 27, 2020 7:33:38 GMT hengo said:

Demographic change is in many places largely a synonym for immigration, but not really here, unless we mean immigration from across the Mersey, or the four bridges from Birkenhead. That probably has been a factor in turning this constituency from Conservative to safe Labour. Frank Field used to make the point that there was in Birkenhead itself a lack of housing for those seeking a step up. There has been a big drift of the “ upwardly mobile” over the last generation from areas like the North End of Birkenhead out to Wallasey, West and South Wirral where a much wider range of housing is available.

Birkenhead really does show this.  It is quite a step up from the pokier homes in the town proper or on the edge of the centre to the massive properties in Prenton or Claughton, with not a lot in between.

[Deleted]

May 27, 2020 7:56:08 GMT hengo said:

I think New Brighton was at last actually doing reasonably well before the lockdown. The crumbling eyesore you refer to has I believe been bought by Weatherspoons, and there are currently signs at last of some work there, though now who knows what will happen? The history of decline in New Brighton prior to the renovation, funded through the big Morrison’s supermarket is indeed a classic case of poor management by the local authority. When I moved up to this area from London it looked to me an obvious place to relocate - lots of lovely (and cheap) houses running down to the river front.. it looked to be certain to “improve” and shoot up in value. But my new boss, a shrewd Yorkshireman , said “ nay lad, folk have been thinking that for thirty years- look to Deeside”. He was right. But now things are, or were, on the up.

 Yes, I've heard the Wetherspoons story too, though it seemed to be on-again/off-again/on-again. 

The Victoria Road investment had looked to be gaining momentum before lockdown, a couple of bars had opened and it was looking busier than it had. 

[Merseymike]

May 27, 2020 7:33:38 GMT hengo said:

Demographic change is in many places largely a synonym for immigration, but not really here, unless we mean immigration from across the Mersey, or the four bridges from Birkenhead. That probably has been a factor in turning this constituency from Conservative to safe Labour. Frank Field used to make the point that there was in Birkenhead itself a lack of housing for those seeking a step up. There has been a big drift of the “ upwardly mobile” over the last generation from areas like the North End of Birkenhead out to Wallasey, West and South Wirral where a much wider range of housing is available.

I'm not sure, but there is evidence that some of the middle class areas have more propensity to vote Labour nationally. However places like Heswall and Hoylake in neighbouring seats haven't shifted much at all, at least locally, which I'll discuss when I do Wirral West and Wirral South

[jamie]

May 27, 2020 8:06:53 GMT Merseymike said:

I'm not sure, but there is evidence that some of the middle class areas have more propensity to vote Labour nationally. However places like Heswall and Hoylake in neighbouring seats haven't shifted much at all, at least locally, which I'll discuss when I do Wirral West and Wirral South

They do seem to have moved quite a bit nationally. Labour’s substantial underperformance at council elections means you have to find national Labour voters somewhere, and even assuming semi-North Korean margins in the poor areas leaves you with Labour comfortably winning wards like Wallasey nationally. 

[Merseymike]

May 27, 2020 10:50:18 GMT jamie said:

May 27, 2020 8:06:53 GMT Merseymike said:

I'm not sure, but there is evidence that some of the middle class areas have more propensity to vote Labour nationally. However places like Heswall and Hoylake in neighbouring seats haven't shifted much at all, at least locally, which I'll discuss when I do Wirral West and Wirral South

They do seem to have moved quite a bit nationally. Labour’s substantial underperformance at council elections means you have to find national Labour voters somewhere, and even assuming semi-North Korean margins in the poor areas leaves you with Labour comfortably winning wards like Wallasey nationally. 

In this seat. Yes. There's still enough Tory strength in the other seats mentioned to allow for Tory enclaves, though. Here it's unlikely, except perhaps in 2015 which was a relatively weak Labour performance

[greenhert]

May 27, 2020 7:33:38 GMT hengo said:

Demographic change is in many places largely a synonym for immigration, but not really here, unless we mean immigration from across the Mersey, or the four bridges from Birkenhead. That probably has been a factor in turning this constituency from Conservative to safe Labour. Frank Field used to make the point that there was in Birkenhead itself a lack of housing for those seeking a step up. There has been a big drift of the “ upwardly mobile” over the last generation from areas like the North End of Birkenhead out to Wallasey, West and South Wirral where a much wider range of housing is available.

Demographic change can also refer to a decline or increase in property ownership, the population overall becoming significantly older or significantly younger, the proportion of graduates substantially increasing etc. It does not necessarily refer to increasing diversification.

[hengo]

Yes, of course, and I didn’t think I had implied that-and certainly didn’t intend to. But I have seen the term used a lot to describe constituencies where immigration, particularly from the sub continent has substantially changed the character of a place, and its traditional voting habit. My intention for those who don’t know Wallasey at all was to clarify that this was not the case here, and other causes have to be sought for those interested in why a constituency which was, in relatively recent times, Conservative should have become solidly Labour.

[froome]

May 27, 2020 7:41:10 GMT @pr1berske said:

My partner lives in Liscard (long distance relationship!). I visit most weekends. I remember on an earlier version of this forum someone commenting that it is hard to believe that Wallasey was Labour held given some of the houses around here. New Brighton is almost a dictionary definition of "faded seaside glamour", although the front has had a significant "up-do" in terms of investment. One very large pub-restaurant closed before lockdown and another has been tumbling down derelict for years, and I do wonder if circumstances have made the potential to refurb either of these impossible.

Liscard is not exactly down-at-heel but it's rougher and scrappier than it perhaps once was. The main shopping street is looking a touch sad for itself. I tell you what though, there are *tons* of pubs in Liscard, that side of things was certainly healthy last time I visited.

That was almost certainly me. I lived in Wallasey for a year in 1974 and still find it difficult to believe it can be so strongly Labour now. Liscard was indeed the very epitome of middle class suburbia when i was there, as was Wallasey Village, while New Brighton was fairly down at heel. I was living in Leasowe, which was a classic Labour council estate, and working in Seacombe, which was poor and no doubt Labour voting. But the overwhelming feel of the place was comfortable middle class suburbia.

[hengo]

Mike is quite right I think in saying that there is, here and in West and South Wirral, a particularly strong middle class Labour support. I would add that I think that this is largely drawn from the public sector. Many of those handsome villas which once saw thousands of middle income types in the Shipping offices and Insurance companies make their way to Seacombe ferry in the morning are now more likely to be home to Teachers , Doctors and University staff.

[Deleted]

Funny, I always thought Worthing was the new Brighton.