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Post by Robert Waller on May 18, 2020 9:39:22 GMT
As I've been 'in Hampshire' recently, and as Yellow Peril has pointed out the county is lagging behind, I thought I'd have a go at Basingstoke next.
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Post by Arthur Figgis on May 19, 2020 13:01:14 GMT
No topless bathing. Basingstoke has suffered enough.
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on May 19, 2020 16:45:37 GMT
No topless bathing. Basingstoke has suffered enough. 😂 Basingstoke is the definition of suffering. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on May 19, 2020 17:31:52 GMT
No topless bathing. Basingstoke has suffered enough. 😂 Basingstoke is the definition of suffering. As noted by WS Gilbert. "Basingstoke my dear. Basingstoke." |
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Post by gwynthegriff on May 19, 2020 17:32:46 GMT
ah yes, England's only-ever DUP-held seat. What about Vauxhall ? |
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Post by greenhert on May 19, 2020 18:34:20 GMT
ah yes, England's only-ever DUP-held seat. What about Vauxhall ? Kate Hoey never defected to the DUP though, unlike Andrew Hunter  |
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Post by Robert Waller on May 19, 2020 19:25:30 GMT
The Basingstoke division of Hampshire has existed since 1885 and in only one election (1923, in the shape of the Liberal Reginald Fletcher) has it been won by anyone other than a Conservative (or Unionist when the party preferred to be so labelled). Labour has finished second more often than not since 1945 but have only come really close to victory twice, in 1997 (2,397 votes behind) and 2001 (just 880). This last contest suggests a deviation into how the Almanac of British Politics first came to be written, in case it is of any interest.
(I first came across the Almanac of American Politics in Rhodes House Library in Oxford around 1980, immediately thinking that if no one had done something similar for the UK, I’d have a go. For years I thought that the creator of the American version, Michael Barone, might resent my plagiarism, but when I finally met him for the first time in Washington DC sometime in the 1990s he was nothing but pleased. Indeed there are some curious parallels. The American Almanac started 11 years before the British version, and we were both 27 years of age when the first one was published. We both annoyed our families at a very early age by insisting in being quizzed on Census populations. We used each other’s book as a guide when touring the other’s country. We stayed in touch and when in 2001 he visited this side of the pond for the general election, we decided to go on a drive on election day through some interesting seats. I chose these and we ended up in Basingstoke, where we found a polling station in Chineham, then a marginal ward in a marginal constituency, where Michael unsuccessfully tried to find out which party folk were voting for; “they’d have told me in the States”).
Only in 2001 would Basingstoke have been a reasonable destination for a psephological tour. It might be argued that New Labour suited the constituency enough to make it competitive. Before and since the Blair era the Conservatives have held the seat easily enough. It needs to be pointed out that Basingstoke has gone through more than one incarnation. Before the 1960s it was essentially a market town with a rural hinterland north east of the geographical centre of Hampshire. This was the Basingstoke its renowned son John Arlott, the doyen of cricket commentators, would have recognized. The population of the former municipal borough of Basingstoke was 17.000 in 1951 and 26,000 in 1961. Then it took off, as Basingstoke was designated not as an official New Town but as a designated expansion for example for London overspill. As well as social housing estates there has been a continuous development of private housing as the urban area has spread in most directions into the Hampshire countryside, somewhat reminiscent of Milton Keynes in Buckinghamshire. A view of the towers of the central zone can be seen from the M3. By 2019 the population of the Basingstoke and Deane borough (created in 1974) was estimated at 176,000 and still rising, and it has to be split between three constituencies, this one and NE and NW Hampshire.
The Basingstoke seat itself is drawn quite tightly to the urban core of the town itself, with 15 compact wards within the contiguous built up area, plus Basing, which stretches beyond Old Basing itself to beyond Mapledurwell and the intriguingly named Nately Scures, which sounds like something out of Catch-22. The wards which still have a substantial amount of social housing stock tend to be strongly Labour in council elections, such as Popley East and West, South Ham, Buckskin, Norden and Rooksdown, all in the centre and north of the town, and Brighton Hill South on its southern edge. On the other hand, the strongly owner-occupied housing - whether older (Kempshott) or newer (Chineham) - is nowadays usually heavily Conservative. There are also a scattering of Liberal Democrat wards like Eastrop and Grove. However, adding up local election votes does not match the recent general election results in Basingstoke very closely. In 2019 Maria Miller increased her majority to 14,198 or 26%. This suggests that there is a substantial vote that switched from Labour at local level to Conservative nationally.
The reason for this was probably partly to do with the 54% Leave share in the 2016 referendum, and also the seat’s nature: over 90% white, 2nd in the list of all seats for proportion ‘economically active’ and 7th for ’in employment’, but 635th for those working ‘in education’. Though there is a fair amount of potential Labour support here – for example it still has above the average of social housing - it would not appear to be the type that found Corbyn’s brand appealing; as we have seen, Blair’s apparently much more so. Barring an unlikely revivification of ‘Blairism’, it is unlikely that Basingstoke will return to marginal status in the near future, even though the continued population growth means that at least one ward should be trimmed in the next boundary review – the electorate was over 82,000 in 2019. It should stay in the Conservative column, unless there is a repeat of such bizarre circumstances as led it to be the only ever English constituency to have a DUP MP (yes, the Northern Irish party) after Andrew Hunter defected from the Conservatives and after a period as an independent took their whip from 2004 to his retirement in 2005. But such a personal factor relating to the MP would be more for the aspect of Michael Barone’s conception that focuses on the representatives, not the places; a dangerous aspect, as the Almanac of British Politics was, in the end, to discover …
2011 Census
Owner-occupied 64.3% 403/650
Private rented 12.4% 434/650
Social rented 20.8% 194/650
White 90.4% 426/650
Black 1.6% 205/650
Asian 5.6% 198/650
Managerial & professional 36.9%
Routine & Semi-routine 24.2%
Degree level 28.0% 238/650
No qualifications 17.7% 546/650
Students 5.7% 540/650
Age 65+ 12.4% 560/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 62.4% 364/573
Private rented 13.2% 341/573
Social rented 21.9 % 141/573
White 84.8%
Black 2.6%
Asian 8.2%
Managerial & professional 37.8% 152/573
Routine & Semi-routine 23.6% 293/573
Degree level 33.4% 247/573
No qualifications 15.1% 423/573
General election 2019: Basingstoke
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Maria Miller 29,593 54.1 +1.4
Labour Kerena Marchant 15,395 28.1 -7.7
Liberal Democrats Sashi Mylvaganam 6,841 12.5 +6.4
Green Jonnie Jenkin 2,138 3.9 +1.9
Independent Alan Stone 746 1.4 +1.4
C Majority 14,198 26.0 +9.1
Turnout 54,713 66.0 -2.4
Conservative hold
Swing 4.5 Lab to C
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Post by belvoir on May 19, 2020 19:35:14 GMT
The Basingstoke division of Hampshire has existed since 1885 and in only one election (1923, in the shape of the Liberal Reginald Fletcher) has it been won by anyone other than a Conservative (or Unionist when the party preferred to be so labelled). Labour has finished second in every election since 1945 but have only come really close to victory twice, in 1997 (2,397 votes behind) and 2001 (just 880). This last contest suggests a deviation into how the Almanac of British Politics first came to be written, in case it is of any interest. (I first came across the Almanac of American Politics in Rhodes House Library in Oxford around 1980, immediately thinking that if no one had done something similar for the UK, I’d have a go. For years I thought that the creator of the American version, Michael Barone, might resent my plagiarism, but when I finally met him for the first time in Washington DC sometime in the 1990s he was nothing but pleased. Indeed there are some curious parallels. The American Almanac started 11 years before the British version, and we were both 27 years of age when the first one was published. We both annoyed our families at a very early age by insisting in being quizzed on Census populations. We used each other’s book as a guide when touring the other’s country. We stayed in touch and when in 2001 he visited this side of the pond for the general election, we decided to go on a drive on election day through some interesting seats. I chose these and we ended up in Basingstoke, where we found a polling station in Chineham, then a marginal ward in a marginal constituency, where Michael unsuccessfully tried to find out which party folk were voting for; “they’d have told me in the States”). Only in 2001 would Basingstoke have been a reasonable destination for a psephological tour. It might be argued that New Labour suited the constituency enough to make it competitive. Before and since the Blair era the Conservatives have held the seat easily enough. It needs to be pointed out that Basingstoke has gone through more than one incarnation. Before the 1960s it was essentially a market town with a rural hinterland north east of the geographical centre of Hampshire. This was the Basingstoke its renowned son John Arlott, the doyen of cricket commentators, would have recognized. The population of the former municipal borough of Basingstoke was 17.000 in 1951 and 26,000 in 1961. Then it took off, as Basingstoke was designated not as an official New Town but as a designated expansion for example for London overspill. As well as social housing estates there has been a continuous development of private housing as the urban area has spread in most directions into the Hampshire countryside, somewhat reminiscent of Milton Keynes in Buckinghamshire. A view of the towers of the central zone can be seen from the M3. By 2019 the population of the Basingstoke and Deane borough (created in 1974) was estimated at 176,000 and still rising, and it has to be split between three constituencies, this one and NE and NW Hampshire. The Basingstoke seat itself is drawn quite tightly to the urban core of the town itself, with 15 compact wards within the contiguous built up area, plus Basing, which stretches beyond Old Basing itself to beyond Mapledurwell and the intriguingly named Nately Scures, which sounds like something out of Catch-22. The wards which still have a substantial amount of social housing stock tend to be strongly Labour in council elections, such as Popley East and West, South Ham, Buckskin, Norden and Rooksdown, all in the centre and north of the town, and Brighton Hill South on its southern edge. On the other hand, the strongly owner-occupied housing - whether older (Kempshott) or newer (Chineham) - is nowadays usually heavily Conservative. There are also a scattering of Liberal Democrat wards like Eastrop and Grove. However, adding up local election votes does not match the recent general election results in Basingstoke very closely. In 2019 Maria Miller increased her majority to 14,198 or 26%. This suggests that there is a substantial vote that switched from Labour at local level to Conservative nationally. The reason for this was probably party to do with the 54% Leave share in the 2016 referendum, and also the seat’s nature: over 90% white, 2nd in the list of all seats for proportion ‘economically active’ and 7th for ’in employment’, but 635th for those working ‘in education’. Though there is a fair amount of potential Labour support here – for example it still has above the average of social housing - it would not appear to be the type that found Corbyn’s brand appealing; as we have seen, Blair’s apparently much more so. Barring an unlikely revivification of ‘Blairism’, it is unlikely that Basingstoke will return to marginal status in the near future, even though the continued population growth means that at least one ward should be trimmed in the next boundary review – the electorate was over 82,000 in 2019. It should stay in the Conservative column, unless there is a repeat of such bizarre circumstances as led it to be the only ever English constituency to have a DUP MP (yes, the Northern Irish party) after Andrew Hunter defected from the Conservatives and after a period as an independent took their whip from 2004 to his retirement in 2005. But such a personal factor relating to the MP would be more for the aspect of Michael Barone’s conception that focuses on the representatives, not the places; a dangerous aspect, as the Almanac of British Politics was, in the end, to discover … 76% of those voting in Gravesend in 1970 were happy to tell the BBC's exit pollsters how they voted - you and Barone must have just had ugly mugs. As for this seat only being interesting in 2001, if it loses Basing in any future review and those under 40 can't afford to buy homes within 50 miles of London where they have to work go off voting Conservative for utterly inexplicable reasons, Basingstoke might come back into play. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 19, 2020 19:41:13 GMT
The Basingstoke division of Hampshire has existed since 1885 and in only one election (1923, in the shape of the Liberal Reginald Fletcher) has it been won by anyone other than a Conservative (or Unionist when the party preferred to be so labelled). Labour has finished second in every election since 1945 but have only come really close to victory twice, in 1997 (2,397 votes behind) and 2001 (just 880). This last contest suggests a deviation into how the Almanac of British Politics first came to be written, in case it is of any interest. But of course not only did Labour drop to a poor third behind the SDP in 1983 and 1987 but the Lib Dems also came second here in 2010 Incidentally I also used Barone's book when I toured parts of the US in 2003 - one of my first acts when I arrived in New York was to buy the latest edition |
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Post by Robert Waller on May 19, 2020 20:33:36 GMT
Thanks Pete, I shall amend.
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Post by tonyhill on May 20, 2020 5:51:17 GMT
John Arlott had a more pleasant accent though. Didn't he start his working life as a policeman in Basingstoke?
The second line should read "Labour has finished second..." I think?
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Post by carlton43 on May 20, 2020 8:01:41 GMT
John Arlott of course was not just a cricket (and until the late 60s occasionally football) commentator, he was himself a parliamentary candidate for the Liberals, in Essex. To me, great though Arlott was, the finest ever cricket commentator has been Richie Benaud. But what a rich warm encompassing voice he had. And the general background information injected into his coverage. He was an accomplished poet, editor, critic and writer; plus a considerable expert on fine wines. Very much my sort of chap. I still miss him with an acuteness. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 20, 2020 8:47:06 GMT
John Arlott of course was not just a cricket (and until the late 60s occasionally football) commentator, he was himself a parliamentary candidate for the Liberals, in Essex. To me, great though Arlott was, the finest ever cricket commentator has been Richie Benaud. But what a rich warm encompassing voice he had. And the general background information injected into his coverage. He was an accomplished poet, editor, critic and writer; plus a considerable expert on fine wines. Very much my sort of chap. I still miss him with an acuteness. I have a copy of Arlott on Wine, and it is a fascinating throwback to a time when wine choices were limited. At one point, he recommends trying hock. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 20, 2020 8:56:40 GMT
Basingstoke is a surprisingly interesting place. Noting the earlier mention of it as an "expanded" town, it is the central point of three along the same railway line: the others being Andover to its west, and Farnborough further east. It is worth noting that much of the housing stock around Oakridge (particularly Oakridge Road) was built originally to house workers at the AWE in Aldermaston.
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Post by Robert Waller on May 20, 2020 10:22:13 GMT
John Arlott had a more pleasant accent though. Didn't he start his working life as a policeman in Basingstoke? The second line should read "Labour has finished second..." I think? Yes, thank you. Now amended. John Arlott's autobiography was entitled Basingstoke Boy, so despite his later residence in New Alresford and Alderney, it must have meant much to him. |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on May 20, 2020 12:33:27 GMT
The Basingstoke division of Hampshire has existed since 1885 and in only one election (1923, in the shape of the Liberal Reginald Fletcher) has it been won by anyone other than a Conservative (or Unionist when the party preferred to be so labelled). Labour has finished second more often than not since 1945 but have only come really close to victory twice, in 1997 (2,397 votes behind) and 2001 (just 880). This last contest suggests a deviation into how the Almanac of British Politics first came to be written, in case it is of any interest. (I first came across the Almanac of American Politics in Rhodes House Library in Oxford around 1980, immediately thinking that if no one had done something similar for the UK, I’d have a go. For years I thought that the creator of the American version, Michael Barone, might resent my plagiarism, but when I finally met him for the first time in Washington DC sometime in the 1990s he was nothing but pleased. Indeed there are some curious parallels. The American Almanac started 11 years before the British version, and we were both 27 years of age when the first one was published. We both annoyed our families at a very early age by insisting in being quizzed on Census populations. We used each other’s book as a guide when touring the other’s country. We stayed in touch and when in 2001 he visited this side of the pond for the general election, we decided to go on a drive on election day through some interesting seats. I chose these and we ended up in Basingstoke, where we found a polling station in Chineham, then a marginal ward in a marginal constituency, where Michael unsuccessfully tried to find out which party folk were voting for; “they’d have told me in the States”). Only in 2001 would Basingstoke have been a reasonable destination for a psephological tour. It might be argued that New Labour suited the constituency enough to make it competitive. Before and since the Blair era the Conservatives have held the seat easily enough. It needs to be pointed out that Basingstoke has gone through more than one incarnation. Before the 1960s it was essentially a market town with a rural hinterland north east of the geographical centre of Hampshire. This was the Basingstoke its renowned son John Arlott, the doyen of cricket commentators, would have recognized. The population of the former municipal borough of Basingstoke was 17.000 in 1951 and 26,000 in 1961. Then it took off, as Basingstoke was designated not as an official New Town but as a designated expansion for example for London overspill. As well as social housing estates there has been a continuous development of private housing as the urban area has spread in most directions into the Hampshire countryside, somewhat reminiscent of Milton Keynes in Buckinghamshire. A view of the towers of the central zone can be seen from the M3. By 2019 the population of the Basingstoke and Deane borough (created in 1974) was estimated at 176,000 and still rising, and it has to be split between three constituencies, this one and NE and NW Hampshire. The Basingstoke seat itself is drawn quite tightly to the urban core of the town itself, with 15 compact wards within the contiguous built up area, plus Basing, which stretches beyond Old Basing itself to beyond Mapledurwell and the intriguingly named Nately Scures, which sounds like something out of Catch-22. The wards which still have a substantial amount of social housing stock tend to be strongly Labour in council elections, such as Popley East and West, South Ham, Buckskin, Norden and Rooksdown, all in the centre and north of the town, and Brighton Hill South on its southern edge. On the other hand, the strongly owner-occupied housing - whether older (Kempshott) or newer (Chineham) - is nowadays usually heavily Conservative. There are also a scattering of Liberal Democrat wards like Eastrop and Grove. However, adding up local election votes does not match the recent general election results in Basingstoke very closely. In 2019 Maria Miller increased her majority to 14,198 or 26%. This suggests that there is a substantial vote that switched from Labour at local level to Conservative nationally. The reason for this was probably partly to do with the 54% Leave share in the 2016 referendum, and also the seat’s nature: over 90% white, 2nd in the list of all seats for proportion ‘economically active’ and 7th for ’in employment’, but 635th for those working ‘in education’. Though there is a fair amount of potential Labour support here – for example it still has above the average of social housing - it would not appear to be the type that found Corbyn’s brand appealing; as we have seen, Blair’s apparently much more so. Barring an unlikely revivification of ‘Blairism’, it is unlikely that Basingstoke will return to marginal status in the near future, even though the continued population growth means that at least one ward should be trimmed in the next boundary review – the electorate was over 82,000 in 2019. It should stay in the Conservative column, unless there is a repeat of such bizarre circumstances as led it to be the only ever English constituency to have a DUP MP (yes, the Northern Irish party) after Andrew Hunter defected from the Conservatives and after a period as an independent took their whip from 2004 to his retirement in 2005. But such a personal factor relating to the MP would be more for the aspect of Michael Barone’s conception that focuses on the representatives, not the places; a dangerous aspect, as the Almanac of British Politics was, in the end, to discover … A lot of the local Labour vote is related to local issues, which may explains why it's much more solidly Tory at the GE. Basingstoke and Deane Council tried to close a small secondary school in its suburb of Winklebury and that led to a Labour gain in a by election in 2016 I think because the Labour candidate was heavily involved in the campaign to save the school. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 20, 2020 13:56:10 GMT
I think Alderney is where Sir Ian Botham lives now. "Two thousand alcoholics clinging to a rock". |
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Post by yellowperil on May 20, 2020 15:18:54 GMT
John Arlott of course was not just a cricket (and until the late 60s occasionally football) commentator, he was himself a parliamentary candidate for the Liberals, in Essex. To me, great though Arlott was, the finest ever cricket commentator has been Richie Benaud. But what a rich warm encompassing voice he had. And the general background information injected into his coverage. He was an accomplished poet, editor, critic and writer; plus a considerable expert on fine wines. Very much my sort of chap. I still miss him with an acuteness. There, a Liberal parliamentary candidate who was very much Carlton's sort of chap. One does have to wonder how that is possible. Did Carlton ever catch up with him on some of his more controversial contributions to Any Questions? I of course cheered those on- did Carlton? |
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Post by carlton43 on May 20, 2020 16:09:30 GMT
But what a rich warm encompassing voice he had. And the general background information injected into his coverage. He was an accomplished poet, editor, critic and writer; plus a considerable expert on fine wines. Very much my sort of chap. I still miss him with an acuteness. There, a Liberal parliamentary candidate who was very much Carlton's sort of chap. One does have to wonder how that is possible. Did Carlton ever catch up with him on some of his more controversial contributions to Any Questions? I of course cheered those on- did Carlton? I have more friends who are or have been Labour politicians than I do Conservatives. I am not as tribal as you may think. Friendship trumps politics and we can agree to disagree. High culture trumps anything, as does involvement in the arts. I do have a thing about LDs I confess. Have had very few LD friends or associates. The fact is I did not know John was a Liberal. Probably an old style National Liberal like my Dad? |
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Post by lbarnes on May 20, 2020 17:01:16 GMT
There, a Liberal parliamentary candidate who was very much Carlton's sort of chap. One does have to wonder how that is possible. Did Carlton ever catch up with him on some of his more controversial contributions to Any Questions? I of course cheered those on- did Carlton? I have more friends who are or have been Labour politicians than I do Conservatives. I am not as tribal as you may think. Friendship trumps politics and we can agree to disagree. High culture trumps anything, as does involvement in the arts. I do have a thing about LDs I confess. Have had very few LD friends or associates. The fact is I did not know John was a Liberal. Probably an old style National Liberal like my Dad? Arlott was actually a proper campaigning radical. www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/b01944rf |
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