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Post by Deleted on May 17, 2020 1:58:23 GMT
Yes, I know I said I wouldn't do any more, but I don't have anything else to do and I'm bored. Unless anyone objects, I'll post this one here tomorrow.
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Post by Deleted on May 17, 2020 21:34:42 GMT
Gloucester
Gloucester is the county town of and largest city in the County of Gloucestershire. It sits roughly central within the modern Non-Metropolitan County perhaps slightly to the north and West, about 13 miles from the northernmost point in Tewkesbury; 19 miles from the southernmost point near Tetbury; around 17 miles from the Welsh border at Symonds Yat and 22 miles from the Oxfordshire border. However, the ceremonial county stretches another ten miles southwards and the historic border was the River Avon, running through the middle of Bristol. The constituency borders the Forest of Dean to its West, Stroud to the South, and Tewkesbury to the North and east. Despite its proximity to both Bristol and Cheltenham, it is not overshadowed by either and maintains a proud and distinct identity as a city. People from the market towns and valleys to the south of the city are far more likely to tell you that they come from “near Gloucester” than “near Bristol”, although in truth “Gloucestershire” is preferred to either of those as a description.
One ward from the city of Gloucester is in the Tewkesbury constituency rather than this one: that is Longlevens, covering the mostly lower-middle class community of the same name. As Gloucester would have been oversized on 600 seats let alone 650, with 81,332 registered electors in 2019, more areas will have to be removed at the next boundary review. Within the seat is Quedgely to the south, a separate town and parish which is really part of the city (just don’t tell them); the middle class although not wealthy suburb of Tuffley to the south west; the very middle-class communities of Abbeymead and Hucclecote to the east and north east; the more deprived area of Kingsholm around the famous rugby ground of the same name to the north west; a city centre divided between a rather run down area between the station and the quays, and a much more pleasant area around the famous cathedral; and a large and more working-class residential area slightly to the east of the centre. The city centre is actually in Westgate ward, right on the western edge of the seat. There has been very little development to the west of the centre, presumably because of the high risk of flooding from the Severn.
The history of Gloucester is long and eventful. It was founded as Colonia Glevum Nevensis by the Romans in 97AD, essentially as a retirement community for Roman soldiers. One of the city’s major attractions is the archaeological remains of the roman city. In the early middle ages, Gloucester was home to a number of religious sites, including St Oswalds Priory, founded in the late 9th century; St Peter’s Abbey, founded in 679 and later to become the city’s famous cathedral, and Llanthony Secunda Priory, founded in 1136. Henry III was crowned in Gloucester in 1216 at the age of ten, and Edward II was buried here after his rather brutal death at nearby Berkeley Castle in 1327. Interestingly, his tomb is one of two in the cathedral to have the eyes carved open, in this case to symbolise his looking up at heaven, represented by the beautifully painted ceiling, in death; the implication being that he did not make it in. It is monuments like this, as well as a corridor that can be seen briefly in the Harry Potter films, that make the cathedral an attraction for tourists from all over the country. Richard II convened parliament in Gloucester for the first time in 1378 and parliaments continued to be held here until 1406. Two grammar schools survive from the Tudor and Stuart eras, The Crypt school founded in 1539 and Sir Thomas Rich’s, founded in 1666. The New Inn, a former coaching inn built in 1450 is still open for business, and is one of the most popular pubs in Gloucester; it was in fact here that Lady Jane Grey was proclaimed queen on her accession to the throne in 1553. Robert Raikes, the founder of the Sunday School Movement, was born in Gloucester and is commemorated by a pub called Robert Raikes’ House on Southgate Street.
Gloucester, with its position in the Severn, was something of a medieval export hub, mainly for Cotswolds wool, but also leather and iron. It also has a long history of fishing, to which the Mariners’ Chapel on the docks is a testament. Despite this, outside the docks area, there has never been a huge amount of industry within Gloucester itself. The Gloucester and Sharpness canal added to the traffic coming through the docks by making it easier to move the produce from surrounding areas into the city.
Gloucester has been a constituency since 1295. More recent political history has suggested a marginal seat, although it did elect a Radical as one of its two MPs in 1852 and 1857. Until 1918, it was a Liberal-Conservative marginal, the Conservatives winning by just 4 votes in December 1910. The Conservatives broke 50% against Liberal and Labour opposition in 1918, and then in 1922, the Labour Party increased their vote share by 18.8% to come within 51 votes of taking the seat. It would take until 1945 for Labour to win the seat, and by this time it had been well established as a Conservative-Labour marginal. However, it ceased to be a bellwether and was won by Labour, mostly by narrow margins, until 1970 when it was gained by Sally Oppenheim for the Conservatives. It remained marginally Conservative throughout the seventies, until the rise of the SDP hurt Labour and allowed the Tories to increase their majority by nearly ten points to 22.3% in 1983, despite losing vote share. Tess Kingham gained it for Labour on an 11.5% swing in 1997; she served just a single term before retiring and being replaced by Parmjit Dhanda in 2001. He held the seat until 2010, when current incumbent Richard Graham gained it on an 8.9% swing. In 2019, he won 54.2% of the vote and a majority of 19.1%, which represents quite a swing from when Labour last held the seat although still leaves it as lower-hanging fruit than some other seats lost in 2010.
Gloucester is the most deprived constituency in Gloucestershire, although still only the 216th most deprived in England, making it comparable with seats such as Dover, Stretford & Urmston and Kensington. Indices where it does significantly worse than its overall ranking are education (141st in England) and health and deprivation (157th). It does significantly better on crime and living environment, ranking 314th and 393rd in England respectively. 13% of its LSOAs are considered highly deprived, meaning they are in the most deprived decile in England. Income is slightly below the national and regional averages and routine occupations are slightly over-represented in the workforce, while managerial ones are slightly over-represented. The only significantly over-represented industry is human health and social work, at 21% of the workforce compared to a national average of 13.2%. 65.5% of households are owner-occupied, slightly above the national average. Social renting is below the national average, although private renting is above it. Education statistics are interesting, as all bands are under-represented compared to the country, except “other qualifications”. That said, the higher levels are the most significantly under-represented, with those having no qualifications only 0.1% less than the country at large. There is division within the constituency for all of these statistics. Owner-occupied housing ranges from 39.6% in Westgate to 84.7% in Elmbridge (all ward are pre-2016 boundaries), while socially rented housing ranges from 3.8% in Quedgeley Severn Vale to 41.7% in Podsmead and private rented housing is at its lowest in Tuffley at 6.6% and highest in Kingsholm & Wotton at 34.3%. Elementary Occupations (SOC group 9) make up 19.2% of the workforce in Barton & Tredworth and just 8.5% in Abbey ward, compared to 11.2% nationally. SOC group 1 (managerial occupations) show their highest and lowest figures in the same wards, only reversed.
Despite this, Gloucester is actually a relatively conservative and nationalistic seat. It has a higher percentage of UK-born residents than the country at large, and unusually for a city of its size, is 88.6% white. A not insignificant Asian population exists in the central ward of Barton & Tredworth, making up 26.4% of the ward’s population; but even this ward is 58.6% white. Without that ward, the seat would be 91.9% white. The constituency also voted 58.9% leave at the referendum, which was enough to tip Gloucestershire as a whole from remain to leave. Every ward backed leave (these are on the new, post-2016 boundaries), although Kingsholm & Wotton only did so by 30 votes or 0.98%. The leave vote ranged from 50.49% in this ward to a massive 71.21% in Coney Hill. There is a positive correlation between the percentage of the vote cast for Labour at 2016’s local elections and the percentage for leave at the referendum, albeit a weak one. However, this is far from an ideal measure, for reasons that will be explained below.
Labour’s strongest areas are the deprived, working class communities of the city centre and the inner-eastern bits, although these areas are not as monolithically Labour as they would be in a similar city in Lancashire or the North East. The Conservatives dominate the middle-class outer areas and Quedgeley. At local elections, the LibDems main strengths are in the northern areas nearest to Cheltenham, but that is not particularly useful for judging general elections: in 2015, the LibDems won 4,000 votes more in local elections than in the general election on the same day – 6,819 votes to 2,828 – despite the relatively strong LibDem ward of Elmbridge not having an election on that day. The demographics of the LibDem voting wards would suggest that a large chunk goes Conservative at general elections, but that would be incompatible with the strong Labour results of the late nineties and early 2000s. However, given the differential turnout between the Tory and Labour areas at local elections, this scenario starts to look more plausible. So, at general elections, Labour win the city centre areas around Kingsholm, Barton, Moreland, Podsmead and Coney Hill, as well as Matson out to the east; the Conservatives dominate Quedgeley and the outer suburbs, while Westgate and Tuffley probably decide the winner.
Overall, this is a moderately deprived yet conservative constituency. Labour won it under Blair by making sure that their economic policy won over enough centrist and conservative voters, and the Conservatives have been able to win thanks to a combination of Corbyn and the city’s relative social conservatism. This seat is not as far beyond Labour as it might be, and would have been needed for the party to win a majority in either 2017 or 2019, and will probably be needed for a majority in the future. That said, however, while Labour are still close enough to be competitive, it is difficult to see it falling in the next couple of elections.
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Post by Deleted on May 17, 2020 21:36:01 GMT
As a side note, the New Inn and the Pelican are both excellent pubs if you're ever in Gloucester, the Pelican especially if you're there for rugby-watching purposes. The New Inn does great food too.
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Post by jamie on May 17, 2020 22:22:03 GMT
@europeanlefty Good profile. On your last comment, its worth noting that this is the kind of constituency that Labour would have needed for a majority in 2017 and 2019, and probably will do so in the future.
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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2020 4:24:38 GMT
@europeanlefty Good profile. On your last comment, its worth noting that this is the kind of constituency that Labour would have needed for a majority in 2017 and 2019, and probably will do so in the future. Thank you! I have edited the end to include that |
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Post by bjornhattan on May 18, 2020 4:46:38 GMT
The only other point I'd add is that the city centre itself is actually in Westgate ward - there is very little development west of the centre, presumably because of the Severn flooding that area regularly. If I remember right, putting Westgate ward in a Forest of Dean seat has been proposed at least once, to make the numbers work - as ridiculous as it sounds the ward shapes in Tewkesbury do force reviews to make... interesting decisions.
It's definitely an important seat to watch though - the demographics here are very close to the national average for a wide range of different variables. This really is the sort of constituency that should be marginal whenever there's a close election nationally, much like another city thirty or so miles up the valley.
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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2020 4:48:23 GMT
A note on boundary changes, as there will have to be some and they could be crucial for this seat and the surrounding ones:
All the Gloucestershire seats are oversized, with the exception of Tewkesbury and the Forest. Gloucester could, in theory, lose any ward from around the edge but there are problems. Westgate ward contains both the cathedral and the quay, so moving that into the Forest is clearly not an option as it would probably cause riots. Stroud is the second largest seat in the county and also needs extensive trimming, so moving Quedgely into Stroud would be hugely disruptive, beside which it would meet with fierce opposition from a well-organised Labour campaign in Stroud and locals in Quedgeley. This leaves the northern and north eastern wards. The most sensible option would be to move Hucclecote, Barnwood and, if necessary, Elmbridge into Tewkesbury, then re-jig The Cotswolds, Tewkesbury and the Forest as necessary. This would move safe Tory wards into safe Tory seats and make Gloucester more competitive, possibly bringing the Tories under 50% at the last election.
However, Gloucestershire alone comes to 6.67 quotas, Gloucestershire and South Gloucs comes to 9.61 and Gloucs, South Gloucs and Bristol comes to 13.96, making the last one by far the easiest combination. Combining Bristol and South Gloucs, in any combination, means wards will have to move from Gloucs to South Gloucs. The option of moving Quedgeley, as proposed in the last boundary review, then becomes viable from a numerical point of view. This would necessitate either moving Cam, Dursley, Berkeley and possibly Nailsworth into South Gloucs; moving Charlford, Painswick, Bisley and Upton into Cotswolds and moving as many Cotswolds wards as necessary into S Gloucs; or a combination of the two. In this scenario, Stroud becomes much harder for Labour to win, and Labour don't come as close in Gloucester as the other scenario.
My personal preference is, of course, for moving the wards around Hucclecote, and there are reasonable social and cultural arguments for it too, but Gloucestershire is going to be a nightmare to draw boundaries for, so there's no way of knowing what the boundary commission will do.
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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2020 4:50:04 GMT
The only other point I'd add is that the city centre itself is actually in Westgate ward - there is very little development west of the centre, presumably because of the Severn flooding that area regularly. If I remember right, putting Westgate ward in a Forest of Dean seat has been proposed at least once, to make the numbers work - as ridiculous as it sounds the ward shapes in Tewkesbury do force reviews to make... interesting decisions. It's definitely an important seat to watch though - the demographics here are very close to the national average for a wide range of different variables. This really is the sort of constituency that should be marginal whenever there's a close election nationally, much like another city thirty or so miles up the valley. Yes, I should probably mention that more explicitly. I think moving Westgate has been proposed, but given that the cathedral and the quay are both in that ward, it would go down like a cup of cold Humberside sick. |
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Post by yellowperil on May 18, 2020 6:05:16 GMT
The only other point I'd add is that the city centre itself is actually in Westgate ward Interesting.. as I pointed out in the Canterbury profile, the entirety of the walled city of Canterbury is contained within the ward of Westgate there! I wonder if there are any others? |
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Post by bjornhattan on May 18, 2020 6:14:02 GMT
The only other point I'd add is that the city centre itself is actually in Westgate ward Interesting.. as I pointed out in the Canterbury profile, the entirety of the walled city of Canterbury is contained within the ward of Westgate there! I wonder if there are any others? Until 2018, Newcastle city centre (or at least the majority of it) was included within the Westgate ward - it was replaced by a new ward named Monument in 2018. But the other three Westgate wards do not include town centre areas. Ipswich's Westgate ward is still fairly central and inner-city (and has the highest proportion of immigrants of any of the Ipswich wards), but both Bury St Edmunds and Morecambe have distinctly suburban Westgate wards (the former presumably named because it is on the southwestern edge of town, the latter named after a large housing estate between Lancaster and Morecambe). |
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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2020 6:21:43 GMT
To be honest, Westgate is a slightly misleading name in Gloucester. The city centre contains the intersection of four roads called Northgate, Southgate, Eastgate and Westgate Streets. The centre essentially spreads out around this point, to the station and rugby ground, the quays, the cathedrals, and the various shops, pubs and restaurants. The intersection is mostly just referred to as the "city centre" or some variation on the "gates" theme, however I have never heard it referred to as "Westgate". Mostly people refer to the specific road that is of interest at the time, all four of which are in this ward.
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on May 18, 2020 7:54:46 GMT
As a side note, the New Inn and the Pelican are both excellent pubs if you're ever in Gloucester, the Pelican especially if you're there for rugby-watching purposes. The New Inn does great food too. Been there, done that. Recommendation seconded. |
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Post by yellowperil on May 18, 2020 14:46:50 GMT
To be honest, Westgate is a slightly misleading name in Gloucester. The city centre contains the intersection of four roads called Northgate, Southgate, Eastgate and Westgate Streets. The centre essentially spreads out around this point, to the station and rugby ground, the quays, the cathedrals, and the various shops, pubs and restaurants. The intersection is mostly just referred to as the "city centre" or some variation on the "gates" theme, however I have never heard it referred to as "Westgate". Mostly people refer to the specific road that is of interest at the time, all four of which are in this ward. That's also interesting! Sounds a bit as though Gate is being used as a word for street, rather than indicating an actual gate, which I thought was supposed to be a Danish thing when it turns up in places like York, so maybe not something you would expect of Gloucester. Now Canterbury Westgate is a substantial surviving actual building and vehicles still have to go through its arch. I am trying desperately to remember Gloucester which I'm ashamed to say I have only been to a couple of times and not at all in the last 60 years (ashamed in that I'm a Gloucestershire man on my father's side). |
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Post by finsobruce on May 18, 2020 15:25:39 GMT
I'm sure that in most cases an actual gate will have existed at some point in history though in some cases they will no longer exist. There were definitely gates in Gloucester:
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on May 18, 2020 16:48:10 GMT
However, Gloucestershire alone comes to 6.67 quotas, Gloucestershire and South Gloucs comes to 9.61 and Gloucs, South Gloucs and Bristol comes to 13.96, making the last one by far the easiest combination. Combining Bristol and South Gloucs, in any combination, means wards will have to move from Gloucs to South Gloucs. The option of moving Quedgeley, as proposed in the last boundary review, then becomes viable from a numerical point of view. This would necessitate either moving Cam, Dursley, Berkeley and possibly Nailsworth into South Gloucs; moving Charlford, Painswick, Bisley and Upton into Cotswolds and moving as many Cotswolds wards as necessary into S Gloucs; or a combination of the two. In this scenario, Stroud becomes much harder for Labour to win, and Labour don't come as close in Gloucester as the other scenario. Or just for some fun:  Gloucester 69995 Churchdown 69381 Cheltenham 66491 Forest of Dean 68590 East Gloucestershire 69053 Cirencester and Stroud 69874 Thornbury 68554 Kingswood 67569 Yate 68740 Filton and Avonmouth 68445 Bristol North 66576 Bristol East 71612 Bristol South East 67353 Bristol South West 71077 Pitchforks all round! |
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Post by Chris from Brum on May 18, 2020 17:22:01 GMT
I'm sure that in most cases an actual gate will have existed at some point in history though in some cases they will no longer exist. If we take York as an example, the streets are -gate, but the gates in the city wall are usually -gate Bar, for example Walmgate Bar and Micklegate Bar. There is no implication of alcoholic refreshment, of course, but there's usually a pub nearby. |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on May 18, 2020 18:02:02 GMT
I'm sure that in most cases an actual gate will have existed at some point in history though in some cases they will no longer exist. If we take York as an example, the streets are -gate, but the gates in the city wall are usually -gate Bar, for example Walmgate Bar and Micklegate Bar. There is no implication of alcoholic refreshment, of course, but there's usually a pub nearby. That's because the meaning of "gate" differed between Anglo-Saxon and Norse. There are even places that have both in close proximity – in Leicester you can walk along East Gates (the Anglo-Saxon sense) and then turn onto Gallowtree Gate (the Norse sense). To plagiarize Wiktionary: 1) From Middle English gate, gat, ȝate, ȝeat, from Old English gæt, gat, ġeat (“a gate, door”), from Proto-Germanic *gatą (“hole, opening”) (compare Old Norse gat, Swedish and Dutch gat, Low German Gaat, Gööt). 2) Borrowed from Old Norse gata, from Proto-Germanic *gatwǭ. Cognate with Danish gade, Swedish gata, German Gasse (“lane”). |
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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2020 20:01:49 GMT
However, Gloucestershire alone comes to 6.67 quotas, Gloucestershire and South Gloucs comes to 9.61 and Gloucs, South Gloucs and Bristol comes to 13.96, making the last one by far the easiest combination. Combining Bristol and South Gloucs, in any combination, means wards will have to move from Gloucs to South Gloucs. The option of moving Quedgeley, as proposed in the last boundary review, then becomes viable from a numerical point of view. This would necessitate either moving Cam, Dursley, Berkeley and possibly Nailsworth into South Gloucs; moving Charlford, Painswick, Bisley and Upton into Cotswolds and moving as many Cotswolds wards as necessary into S Gloucs; or a combination of the two. In this scenario, Stroud becomes much harder for Labour to win, and Labour don't come as close in Gloucester as the other scenario. Or just for some fun: Gloucester 69995 Churchdown 69381 Cheltenham 66491 Forest of Dean 68590 East Gloucestershire 69053 Cirencester and Stroud 69874 Thornbury 68554 Kingswood 67569 Yate 68740 Filton and Avonmouth 68445 Bristol North 66576 Bristol East 71612 Bristol South East 67353 Bristol South West 71077 Pitchforks all round! That is a great way to upset just about everybody! |
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Post by froome on May 18, 2020 21:27:19 GMT
The 4 Gloucester gates were all definitely gates in the city wall.
The lack of a western side to Gloucester is due to this being the flood plain around the Severn, which also included much of the land on the western side of the river. In medieval times, the river ran further east, so that the town of Gloucester developed on the river's banks, and the west gate led directly onto the river crossing point. As this was the route to Wales, it was particularly heavily defended, so the choice of Westgate as the ward name for the city centre is probably due to its historic importance to the city.
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Post by yellowperil on May 19, 2020 6:16:44 GMT
I have been looking at the further out old prints of Gloucester and it seems to me that the gates on the north, east and south side were small piercings in the inner line of the original medieval walls but the west gate seems to have been a much more elaborate barbican-like structure down towards the river, maybe in part a flood defence as well as keeping out the heathen nation lying out there to the west? So Westgate street seems to extend much further than the three equivalents? Are there any traces of the original walls surviving at Gloucester?
I am thinking of the original walled cities of England that I know- Canterbury and York must be among the best preserved
(and somebody will no doubt want to say not the only anachronism associated with those two) Exeter? Chester? What others? And ( to get back on theme) what is the original derivation of the word "ward" - doen't it mean an enclosed space as in the walled area of a city?
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