Post by iang on May 13, 2020 22:04:47 GMT
Walsall South is a slightly oddly shaped constituency, curving banana shaped around the bottom of Walsall authority, bordering Birmingham and Sandwell at its eastern end, and Dudley and Wolverhampton at the western. It moves from Darlaston at that western extremity, a white working-class town reminiscent of most of the wards in Walsall North, through the area around the town centre, which has some very inner city characteristics, to the eastern wards of Paddock and Pheasey Park Farm, which are very affluent indeed in places. Most of the town centre is in St Matthew’s ward, so most of the places that those outside of Walsall might want to visit – the Arboretum, Leather Museum, Calderfields Golf course – are in this seat. So also is the Walsall campus of Wolverhampton University – significantly, as this is where election counts for Walsall are held.
From 1955 to 1974, Walsall South was a Conservative seat, although on significantly different boundaries – it then contained Aldridge. The creation of Aldridge Brownhills as a separate seat in February 1974 saw Bruce George capture Walsall South for Labour for the first time. And Labour has held it since, often only just – from 1979 to 1987, the Labour majority was always under two thousand. It was close again on Bruce George’s retirement and replacement by Valerie Vaz in 2010, but relatively easily since, and even in 2019, an 8% majority represented relative comfort for Labour, given what was happening elsewhere in the Black Country.
So why the apparent anomaly? The answer might be found in the ways in which Walsall South is significantly different to the rest of Walsall. Firstly, in a strongly Leave authority, this is a little less Brexity. The referendum result was 62% Leave here – by the standards of ultra-Leave Walsall North next door, or even compared to Aldridge Brownhills, positively ambiguous. Walsall South includes the only pro-Remain ward in the whole authority, ultra-affluent Paddock. Even in their 2014 surge, when UKIP won or came second in every ward in Aldridge and in Walsall North, the Kippers won none of South’s seven wards, and came second in only three. Secondly, the heart of the constituency – the area around and to the south of Walsall town centre – is significantly less white than the rest of Walsall. In Aldridge Brownhills, no ward falls below 80% white, in Walsall North only one ward. In Walsall South, five wards do, including the three “inner city” wards of Palfrey, Pleck and St Matthews, where white residents are in a minority, and Muslims are the largest community. Paddock, whilst very different in most respects, is just 53% white (although here the Sikh and Hindu community is noticeably larger than the Muslim community). The 2019 election seemed to show white working class voters behaving markedly differently to Asian working class voters, especially Asian Muslim voters. This would help explain why, having returned pretty similar results through the 1980s into the 2000s, Walsall North and South have diverged significantly in recent elections.
As stated above, the seat divides into three parts. The two Darlaston wards on the western edge of the constituency could easily fit into Walsall North (if a Walsall West seat was ever created, it would in current circumstances be a Conservative shoo-in). Both seats are predominantly white (a little less so in Darlaston North and Bentley), both see around 40% of their residents without formal qualifications and only about 10% with degrees or equivalents, and but 15% in managerial or professional employment. 35% or more of the residents in these two wards live in socially rented housing. The three “central/south city centre” wards, Pleck, Palfrey and St Matthews are a little higher for managerial to professional qualifications (16 to 20%), and for degree qualifications (13 to 17%), and lower for social renting (20+%). As stated above, the crucial difference with these three wards is that they are minority white – 44% in Pleck and down to 32% in St Matthews. The two wards on the eastern edge, Paddock and Pheasey, are different again. In both wards, just 3% are in socially rented housing – in Paddock, over half live in detached properties. Pheasey is in line with Palfrey with 19% with degrees and 23% in managerial or professional occupations. Paddock, with particularly spacious and affluent housing around the Park Farm area, benefits from just over a third of its residents with degrees or equivalents, and 39% in managerial or professional occupations. These two wards are second and third on Walsall’s list of economic activity – only neighbouring Streetly, which comes under Aldridge, has fewer residents claiming benefit.
So, rather like West Bromwich East, a very divided seat, with a middle class eastern end balanced by some very deprived areas. The mansions of Paddock ward notwithstanding, for both percentage of managerial and professional employment, the seat is down in the 400s in the list of constituencies in England and Wales. With 32% at no qualifications overall, it is as high as 40th in England and Wales, and conversely, the 18% of residents with a degree puts it on 495th. The crucial statistic though, compared to its neighbours in Walsall authority, is that it is 61% white and 31% Asian, and that seems to be the most salient factor in explaining why it has resisted the pull of Conservatism, unlike much of the Black Country.
Politically, the Conservatives seem to have been losing ground in South, in contrast to Walsall North. In 2004, when Walsall had all-up elections, four of South’s wards elected slates of three Conservative councillors, Pleck returned two Labour and one Conservative, an Independent shared representation with Labour in Darlaston South, and only Bentley and Darlaston North (one ward) returned a complete slate of Labour councillors. Strikingly, those inner city wards were dominated by the Tories – full slates in Palfrey and St Matthews to go with the one Conservative in Pleck. Since then, Paddock and Pheasey have been safe Conservative wards, Bentley safe Labour. Labour has had an Independent problem in Darlaston South where husband and wife team Paul and Chris Bott have kept getting returned since 2004, leaving Labour to win the ward only on every third cycle – although with the Botts having joined Labour in 2018 in circumstances that were nothing to do with who should be Mayor, that situation will presumably change. The trajectory of the other wards is interesting, and in sharp contrast to some wards elsewhere in the authority. In 2007, the Conservatives won five of the wards in the seat, including the three inner city seats. But they haven’t been able to hold on to them. The Tories haven’t won Pleck (always the weakest) since that 2007 win, last won Palfrey in 2008, and lost their last councillor in St Matthews in 2012. Pleck and Palfrey are among the safest Labour wards in the authority now. The very trends that have helped make Walsall North a safe Tory seat against all traditional expectations, and have turned Aldridge Brownhills into an ultra-safe Tory fortress, have seen them locked out of Walsall South even in the favourable circumstances of 2019.
From 1955 to 1974, Walsall South was a Conservative seat, although on significantly different boundaries – it then contained Aldridge. The creation of Aldridge Brownhills as a separate seat in February 1974 saw Bruce George capture Walsall South for Labour for the first time. And Labour has held it since, often only just – from 1979 to 1987, the Labour majority was always under two thousand. It was close again on Bruce George’s retirement and replacement by Valerie Vaz in 2010, but relatively easily since, and even in 2019, an 8% majority represented relative comfort for Labour, given what was happening elsewhere in the Black Country.
So why the apparent anomaly? The answer might be found in the ways in which Walsall South is significantly different to the rest of Walsall. Firstly, in a strongly Leave authority, this is a little less Brexity. The referendum result was 62% Leave here – by the standards of ultra-Leave Walsall North next door, or even compared to Aldridge Brownhills, positively ambiguous. Walsall South includes the only pro-Remain ward in the whole authority, ultra-affluent Paddock. Even in their 2014 surge, when UKIP won or came second in every ward in Aldridge and in Walsall North, the Kippers won none of South’s seven wards, and came second in only three. Secondly, the heart of the constituency – the area around and to the south of Walsall town centre – is significantly less white than the rest of Walsall. In Aldridge Brownhills, no ward falls below 80% white, in Walsall North only one ward. In Walsall South, five wards do, including the three “inner city” wards of Palfrey, Pleck and St Matthews, where white residents are in a minority, and Muslims are the largest community. Paddock, whilst very different in most respects, is just 53% white (although here the Sikh and Hindu community is noticeably larger than the Muslim community). The 2019 election seemed to show white working class voters behaving markedly differently to Asian working class voters, especially Asian Muslim voters. This would help explain why, having returned pretty similar results through the 1980s into the 2000s, Walsall North and South have diverged significantly in recent elections.
As stated above, the seat divides into three parts. The two Darlaston wards on the western edge of the constituency could easily fit into Walsall North (if a Walsall West seat was ever created, it would in current circumstances be a Conservative shoo-in). Both seats are predominantly white (a little less so in Darlaston North and Bentley), both see around 40% of their residents without formal qualifications and only about 10% with degrees or equivalents, and but 15% in managerial or professional employment. 35% or more of the residents in these two wards live in socially rented housing. The three “central/south city centre” wards, Pleck, Palfrey and St Matthews are a little higher for managerial to professional qualifications (16 to 20%), and for degree qualifications (13 to 17%), and lower for social renting (20+%). As stated above, the crucial difference with these three wards is that they are minority white – 44% in Pleck and down to 32% in St Matthews. The two wards on the eastern edge, Paddock and Pheasey, are different again. In both wards, just 3% are in socially rented housing – in Paddock, over half live in detached properties. Pheasey is in line with Palfrey with 19% with degrees and 23% in managerial or professional occupations. Paddock, with particularly spacious and affluent housing around the Park Farm area, benefits from just over a third of its residents with degrees or equivalents, and 39% in managerial or professional occupations. These two wards are second and third on Walsall’s list of economic activity – only neighbouring Streetly, which comes under Aldridge, has fewer residents claiming benefit.
So, rather like West Bromwich East, a very divided seat, with a middle class eastern end balanced by some very deprived areas. The mansions of Paddock ward notwithstanding, for both percentage of managerial and professional employment, the seat is down in the 400s in the list of constituencies in England and Wales. With 32% at no qualifications overall, it is as high as 40th in England and Wales, and conversely, the 18% of residents with a degree puts it on 495th. The crucial statistic though, compared to its neighbours in Walsall authority, is that it is 61% white and 31% Asian, and that seems to be the most salient factor in explaining why it has resisted the pull of Conservatism, unlike much of the Black Country.
Politically, the Conservatives seem to have been losing ground in South, in contrast to Walsall North. In 2004, when Walsall had all-up elections, four of South’s wards elected slates of three Conservative councillors, Pleck returned two Labour and one Conservative, an Independent shared representation with Labour in Darlaston South, and only Bentley and Darlaston North (one ward) returned a complete slate of Labour councillors. Strikingly, those inner city wards were dominated by the Tories – full slates in Palfrey and St Matthews to go with the one Conservative in Pleck. Since then, Paddock and Pheasey have been safe Conservative wards, Bentley safe Labour. Labour has had an Independent problem in Darlaston South where husband and wife team Paul and Chris Bott have kept getting returned since 2004, leaving Labour to win the ward only on every third cycle – although with the Botts having joined Labour in 2018 in circumstances that were nothing to do with who should be Mayor, that situation will presumably change. The trajectory of the other wards is interesting, and in sharp contrast to some wards elsewhere in the authority. In 2007, the Conservatives won five of the wards in the seat, including the three inner city seats. But they haven’t been able to hold on to them. The Tories haven’t won Pleck (always the weakest) since that 2007 win, last won Palfrey in 2008, and lost their last councillor in St Matthews in 2012. Pleck and Palfrey are among the safest Labour wards in the authority now. The very trends that have helped make Walsall North a safe Tory seat against all traditional expectations, and have turned Aldridge Brownhills into an ultra-safe Tory fortress, have seen them locked out of Walsall South even in the favourable circumstances of 2019.
