Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner
May 13, 2020 15:09:54 GMT
Robert Waller, The Bishop, and 5 more like this
Post by Pete Whitehead on May 13, 2020 15:09:54 GMT
This constituency dates back only to 2010 but is the clear successor to the Ruislip Northwood seat which was first contested in 1950. The boundaries of that constituency barely changed between 1950 and 1997 being more or less coterminous with the old Ruislip-Northwood Urban District which was merged into Hillingdon in 1964 and in the latter year Harefield was added from Uxbridge.
The 2010 boundary changes involved a major reconfiguration without altering the seats continued status as a very safe Conservative seat – indeed if anything it made it safer and with the effect on neighbouring seats giving it the appearance of a ‘packed gerrymander’. Around 25,000 voters (more than a third of the existing electorate) were removed in the ‘South Ruislip’ area to be merged with Uxbridge. This area was not typical of the of the constituency as a whole, being distinctly more downmarket than the areas which remained. South Ruislip itself (and its predecessor wards of Bourne and Deansfield) saw Labour being historically competitive while the wards of Manor and Cavendish (covering the southern parts of Ruislip proper and Eastcote respectively) were strong for the Lib Dems.
The core of the remaining area – Northwood, Eastcote and the Northern half of Ruislip is all extremely affluent and very safely Conservative – there have never been other than Conservative councillors elected in any of the wards here. Northwood Hill is a little more mixed than the other wards, with some council estates and a modest Labour vote but has never been marginal. There are some seriously wealthy neighbourhoods here, in Northwood especially.
The replacement for the ‘South Ruislip’ area came mainly in the form of Pinner and Hatch End from Harrow West – another c. 25,000 voters. This is likewise a very affluent, middle class and owner-occupied area comprising mostly detached housing from the inter-war years. It is likewise an area that has never come close to electing any Labour councillors (though the Lib Dems were able to win the old Pinner West ward in the 1990s). There are small pockets of council housing such as at Pinner Green and in the part of Hatch End ward around Headstone Lane, but they are very much the exception. There is however a large and growing ethnic Indian population in this part of Harrow as in the rest of the borough and while this has not (yet) pushed the wards here towards marginality, they are clearly less monolithically Conservative than in the past. Nevertheless, their loss to Harrow West wrecked any chances the Conservatives had there, while here they merely contribute to an already unassailable position. There is a significant Jewish population in Pinner and Hatch End as there is also in Northwood (but not Ruislip).
The other incoming ward is if anything even more strongly Conservative than the others discussed so far. Ickenham is still predominantly white and overwhelmingly owner-occupied and middle-class. It is one of the safest Conservative wards in the whole of Greater London. As such its voters will be sorely missed by Uxbridge Conservatives whereas here, they seem superfluous. It seems somewhat illogical to have removed this ward from Uxbridge of which it was always an integral part, lying just across the A40 from Uxbridge itself, though it is well connected to West Ruislip and suits the general tenor of this constituency.
The final ward here is a true outlier – physically, demographically and politically (at least historically).
While Ruislip, Northwood, Eastcote, Ickenham, Pinner and Hatch End are all thoroughly suburban and built-up – mostly developed in the 1920s as part of ‘Metroland’ and well served by the Metropolitan line and other railways, Harefield is a large village surrounded by countryside and including significant tracts of farmland. It is connected to the other parts of the constituency only by country lanes. This covers the far North-West corner of Greater London, bordering both Hertfordshire and Buckinghamshire. This is no rural Tory stronghold though, at least it has not been traditionally. Harefield is famous for its specialist heart Hospital of course and while the centre of Harefield, around the village green, is attractive enough, most of the residential areas are far from salubrious.
A majority of housing here used to be council owned and while right to buy plus some new development have pushed the figure down, it was still almost a quarter social rented in 2011. Harefield is by a long way the most working-class part of this constituency with a low proportion of graduates and professional and managerial workers. It is also by far the most heavily White part of this constituency.
It is not surprising given the above that Harefield is the one ward in this constituency with a history of voting Labour as it did often in the 1960s and 1970s and most recently in 1994. ‘History’ is indeed the operative word here though as since losing the ward in 1998 Labour’s vote has gone into free-fall and they haven’t managed to even finish second since 2002, being beaten even by the National Front in 2006 and by the Green party at the most recent election.
The closest the Conservatives have come to losing in recent years was to UKIP in 2014 and this is indeed, predictably, a strongly pro-Brexit area and this has been a factor in converting this into effectively a safe Conservative ward. It is probable that at the last general election the Conservatives did significantly better in Harefield (and Labour significantly worse) than in Pinner, which would have been unthinkable even 20 years ago.
As such all the wards here are now safely Conservative and this constituency may be unique in that no ward here has elected other than a Conservative councillor this century. They may not maintain that record for only electing Conservatives for the remainder of the century, but it would not be surprising if this constituency does.
Map shows winner at most recent local elections (2018)
2019 General election
2017 General election
2015 General election
2016 EU referendum (Hanratty estimate)
2011 Census
The 2010 boundary changes involved a major reconfiguration without altering the seats continued status as a very safe Conservative seat – indeed if anything it made it safer and with the effect on neighbouring seats giving it the appearance of a ‘packed gerrymander’. Around 25,000 voters (more than a third of the existing electorate) were removed in the ‘South Ruislip’ area to be merged with Uxbridge. This area was not typical of the of the constituency as a whole, being distinctly more downmarket than the areas which remained. South Ruislip itself (and its predecessor wards of Bourne and Deansfield) saw Labour being historically competitive while the wards of Manor and Cavendish (covering the southern parts of Ruislip proper and Eastcote respectively) were strong for the Lib Dems.
The core of the remaining area – Northwood, Eastcote and the Northern half of Ruislip is all extremely affluent and very safely Conservative – there have never been other than Conservative councillors elected in any of the wards here. Northwood Hill is a little more mixed than the other wards, with some council estates and a modest Labour vote but has never been marginal. There are some seriously wealthy neighbourhoods here, in Northwood especially.
The replacement for the ‘South Ruislip’ area came mainly in the form of Pinner and Hatch End from Harrow West – another c. 25,000 voters. This is likewise a very affluent, middle class and owner-occupied area comprising mostly detached housing from the inter-war years. It is likewise an area that has never come close to electing any Labour councillors (though the Lib Dems were able to win the old Pinner West ward in the 1990s). There are small pockets of council housing such as at Pinner Green and in the part of Hatch End ward around Headstone Lane, but they are very much the exception. There is however a large and growing ethnic Indian population in this part of Harrow as in the rest of the borough and while this has not (yet) pushed the wards here towards marginality, they are clearly less monolithically Conservative than in the past. Nevertheless, their loss to Harrow West wrecked any chances the Conservatives had there, while here they merely contribute to an already unassailable position. There is a significant Jewish population in Pinner and Hatch End as there is also in Northwood (but not Ruislip).
The other incoming ward is if anything even more strongly Conservative than the others discussed so far. Ickenham is still predominantly white and overwhelmingly owner-occupied and middle-class. It is one of the safest Conservative wards in the whole of Greater London. As such its voters will be sorely missed by Uxbridge Conservatives whereas here, they seem superfluous. It seems somewhat illogical to have removed this ward from Uxbridge of which it was always an integral part, lying just across the A40 from Uxbridge itself, though it is well connected to West Ruislip and suits the general tenor of this constituency.
The final ward here is a true outlier – physically, demographically and politically (at least historically).
While Ruislip, Northwood, Eastcote, Ickenham, Pinner and Hatch End are all thoroughly suburban and built-up – mostly developed in the 1920s as part of ‘Metroland’ and well served by the Metropolitan line and other railways, Harefield is a large village surrounded by countryside and including significant tracts of farmland. It is connected to the other parts of the constituency only by country lanes. This covers the far North-West corner of Greater London, bordering both Hertfordshire and Buckinghamshire. This is no rural Tory stronghold though, at least it has not been traditionally. Harefield is famous for its specialist heart Hospital of course and while the centre of Harefield, around the village green, is attractive enough, most of the residential areas are far from salubrious.
A majority of housing here used to be council owned and while right to buy plus some new development have pushed the figure down, it was still almost a quarter social rented in 2011. Harefield is by a long way the most working-class part of this constituency with a low proportion of graduates and professional and managerial workers. It is also by far the most heavily White part of this constituency.
It is not surprising given the above that Harefield is the one ward in this constituency with a history of voting Labour as it did often in the 1960s and 1970s and most recently in 1994. ‘History’ is indeed the operative word here though as since losing the ward in 1998 Labour’s vote has gone into free-fall and they haven’t managed to even finish second since 2002, being beaten even by the National Front in 2006 and by the Green party at the most recent election.
The closest the Conservatives have come to losing in recent years was to UKIP in 2014 and this is indeed, predictably, a strongly pro-Brexit area and this has been a factor in converting this into effectively a safe Conservative ward. It is probable that at the last general election the Conservatives did significantly better in Harefield (and Labour significantly worse) than in Pinner, which would have been unthinkable even 20 years ago.
As such all the wards here are now safely Conservative and this constituency may be unique in that no ward here has elected other than a Conservative councillor this century. They may not maintain that record for only electing Conservatives for the remainder of the century, but it would not be surprising if this constituency does.
Map shows winner at most recent local elections (2018)
| 1. Hatch End | 6. Eastcote & East Ruislip |
| 2. Pinner | 7. West Ruislip |
| 3. Pinner South | 8. Ickenham |
| 4. Northwood Hills | 9. Harefield |
| 5. Northwood |
2019 General election
| Con | 29,391 | 55.6% |
| Lab | 12,997 | 24.6% |
| LD | 7,986 | 15.1% |
| Grn | 1,646 | 3.1% |
| AW | 325 | 0.6% |
| Ind | 295 | 0.6% |
| Ind | 264 | 0.5% |
| Majority | 16,394 | 31.0% |
2017 General election
| Con | 30,555 | 57.2% |
| Lab | 16,575 | 31.0% |
| LD | 3,813 | 7.1% |
| Grn | 1,268 | 2.4% |
| UKIP | 1,171 | 2.2% |
| Majority | 13,980 | 26.2% |
2015 General election
| Con | 30,521 | 59.6% |
| Lab | 10,297 | 20.1% |
| UKIP | 5,598 | 10.9% |
| LD | 2,537 | 5.0% |
| Grn | 1,801 | 3.5% |
| TUSC | 302 | 0.6% |
| NL | 166 | 0.3% |
| Majority | 20,224 | 39.5% |
2016 EU referendum (Hanratty estimate)
| Remain | 50.5% | |
| Leave | 49.5% |
2011 Census
% | Rank | % | Rank | % | Rank | % | Rank | ||||
| Owner Occupied | 73.3 | 103 | White | 70.4 | 495 | Christian | 52.2 | 478 | Graduates | 39.3 | 49 |
| Social Rented | 11.5 | 454 | Asian | 21.7 | 39 | Muslim | 5.6 | 128 | No Qualifications | 15.2 | 527 |
| Private Rented | 13.8 | 319 | Black | 2.8 | 142 | Hindu | 11.2 | 10 | |||
| Mixed | 3.4 | 109 | Sikh | 1.5 | 56 | Students | 7.7 | 204 | |||
| Other | 1.6 | 99 | Jewish | 3.7 | 14 | ||||||
| None | 16.6 | 531 | Prof/Man | 47.8 | |||||||
| Routine/ | 14.5 | ||||||||||
| Semi Routine |
