Swansea East

[greenhert]

It takes its English name from a Viking trading post. Swansea's true (Welsh) name is Abertawe.

[Foggy]

May 12, 2020 12:02:08 GMT greenhert said:

It takes its English name from a Viking trading post. Swansea's true (Welsh) name is Abertawe.

Correct. Meaning, of course, Mouth of the (River) Tawe. The specific name for this constituency is Dwyrain Abertawe. 

[andrewp]

To replace the original, and untraceable, deleted profile for here

As in many British cities, the eastern half of the second city of Wales is the more working class and less affluent half. This is not the Swansea of the bohemian University area of Uplands or affluent Sketty, this is the Swansea of council estates and industry. As you would expect, therefore, this is also the half of Swansea which has shown greater favour to the Labour Party

Swansea East has a relatively narrow section of waterfront onto Swansea Bay, which contains the docklands east of the mouth of the River Tawe, the seat then follows the valley northwards past the Swansea Stadium, home to Swansea City FC and the Ospreys rugby team, past Morriston hospital and as far as the communities of Birchgrove and Ynystawe north of the M4 and at the bottom of the Upper Swansea Valley. This territory contains much of Swansea’s social housing in wards such as Morriston, Llansamlet and Penderry. The boundaries of this constituency have been unchanged since coming into effect for the 1983 general election when the City Centre was moved into Swansea West.
Swansea East clocks up a century in Labour hands this year, having been gained from the Liberals in 1922. For most of the post war period the majorities racked up by the party here have looked impregnable, topping 20,000 on nine occasions.

The demographics of East are that of a predominantly white working-class seat. At the time of the 2011 census, East was 94.9% white compared to 89.4% in West. East was more owner occupied than West, with more socially rented housing and less private rented housing . Prior to the policies of the 1980s, this was a 40% council housing seat.
Fully 30.8% of residents aged 16 or over were classified as having no qualifications. That puts this constituency in the top (or bottom) 100 constituencies for this measure and is fully 10% more than in Swansea West. Just 4.3% of the population here are students, compared to 16.8% in West.

In the rather unique circumstances of the 2019 election, a partial political realignment along the lines seen across the country reached Swansea. East is estimated to have voted 62% leave, West 57% remain. In the circumstances of the 2019 election, it is perhaps not unsurprising that the results in the two constituencies converged somewhat. The Conservatives polled 28.1% here, their highest ever share in Swansea East, cutting the Labour majority to just under 8,000 – the first time the Labour majority has fallen below 10000 since 1931. The percentage majority that the Labour party achieved was smaller than that in historic semi marginals like Cardiff West and Cardiff South and Penarth, and indeed the result here was almost identical to neighbouring historically semi marginal Swansea West. This is still the 8th safest Labour seat in Wales, ( although in the 1997 landslide it was the third safest in Wales and the 7th safest in the UK) and it can still be regarded as safe.

In the 2022 local elections, there was precious little sign of any Conservative momentum being maintained here, however. The highest percentage that they achieved in any of the 8 wards within this constituency was 21%. Labour racked up over 75% in Penderry, Landore and Bonymaen wards and over 60% in Morriston and the more central St Thomas. The Liberal Democrats won two wards, suburban Cwymbria where the party have a run of success going back to 1984, and the new Waterfront ward, where like many cities, new apartments are springing up around the old docklands. The Lib Dems managed to finish second in the parliamentary contests of 2005 and 2010 but have finished in 5th place in each of the last three elections.

Its perhaps fair to conclude that whilst this constituency is not as monolithically Labour as it was, it may be that this is one of those places that 2019 was the outlier, and its still a very safe constituency for that party.

Initial proposals for boundary changes here are radical however, so it may be that the 104-year history of the Swansea East constituency is coming to an end. The 4 Labour constituencies of Gower, Neath, Swansea East and Swansea West would be merged into three. About 30,000 voters in Cwymbria, Landore, Morriston and Penderry would move into a new Swansea Central and North constituency which would manage to contain both the City Centre and a vast swathe of rural territory north of the M4. The rest of the constituency in Bonymaen, Llansamlet, St Thomas and Waterfront wards would form the minority of a new Swansea East and Neath constituency. Both these seats would be safe Labour seats.

[Robert Waller]

2011 Census

Age 65+ 15.6% 412/650
Bad/very bad health 9.3% 16/650
Owner-occupied 60.8% 461/650
Private rented 13.2% 382/650
Social rented 23.8% 129/650
White 94.9% 323/650
Black 0.8% 293/650
Asian 3.0% 310/650
Managerial & professional 22.0%
Routine & Semi-routine 34.7%
Degree level 17.9% 573/650
No qualifications 30.8% 78/650
Students 7.0% 298/650

2021 Census

Owner occupied 58.7% 416/573
Private rented 18.2% 270/573
Social rented 23.1% 92/573
White 92.0%
Black 1.2%
Asian 4.2%
Managerial & professional 23.3% 513/573
Routine & Semi-routine 31.4% 56/573
Degree level 25.7% 462/573
No qualifications 23.6% 74/573





General election 2019: Swansea East

Party Candidate Votes % ±%

Labour Carolyn Harris 17,405 51.8 -11.6
Conservative Denise Howard 9,435 28.1 +2.1
Brexit Party Tony Willicombe 2,842 8.5 N/A
Plaid Cymru Geraint Havard 1,905 5.7 +0.9
Liberal Democrats Chloe Hutchinson 1,409 4.2 +2.4
Green Chris Evans 583 1.7 +0.7

Lab Majority 7,970 23.7 -13.7

Turnout 33,579 57.4 -2.7

Registered electors 58,450

Labour hold

Swing 6.9 Lab to C

[iainbhx]

Swansea University now has a new campus in Swansea East, this isn't replacing Singleton Park but supplementing it, this will probably make a difference to the census figures over time, but not much difference to the voting patterns. When I attended University College, Swansea (as it was then), local election turnout from students was abysmal, there wasn't even a polling booth on campus and I believe that I was the only student in my hall of residence to vote that year and I only popped in because I was going to the pub.