|
|
Post by greenhert on May 11, 2020 22:27:05 GMT
West Suffolk was created in 1997, mostly from the Bury St Edmunds constituency which subsequently shifted eastwards. It consists of the majority of the district of the same name, which was formed from a merger of Forest Heath and St Edmundsbury councils last year.
West Suffolk's largest town is Haverhill, a town that expanded in the second half of the 20th century to accommodate London overspill. It is mainly a manufacturing town with relatively few claims to fame apart from being the site of the world's first laser-lit sculpture. Newmarket, on the other hand, is famous for its racecourse, the Tattersalls auction where racehorses are auctioned (still unofficially in guineas even though the guinea has not been in circulation since 1816 and also decimal currency was introduced as long ago as 1971), the National Horseracing Museum, and almost anything to do with racehorses. Within the context of local government, the two Newmarket parishes were once split between Suffolk and Cambridgeshire until the Local Government Act 1888 settled that issue, transferring both to Suffolk. Newmarket nearly forms a de facto exclave of Cambridgeshire and this was the main basis of its wish to move to Cambridgeshire when local government was being restructured; however their request to transfer to Cambridgeshire was ultimately denied. Mildenhall, meanwhile, is famous for two significant RAF bases, RAF Mildenhall and RAF Lakenheath nearby. In industrial terms West Suffolk has one of the highest proportions of people working in "other" industries-12.2%, and the proportion of people working in manufacturing is considerably above average-12.4%. The proportion of people working in routine/semi-routing occupations is 30%, significantly higher than average. Owner-occupation rates are low for rural Suffolk due to the large number of private renters amongst the RAF personnel. Qualification levels are not particularly high, with "other" qualifications being as high as 9.4%.
West Suffolk has been Conservative since its creation in 1997 although the Conservative majority over Labour that year was 1,867; that year it gave the Referendum Party one of its best results in the country, 7.6%. From 1997 to 2010 Richard Spring (now Baron Spring), who had been Conservative MP for Bury St Edmunds from 1992 to 1997, represented this seat. Since 2010 the Conservative MP for this seat has been Health Secretary Matt Hancock. There has been a strong Eurosceptic streak within this constituency since its creation and UKIP achieved its best result in Suffolk there in 2015, 21.7%. This has helped West Suffolk become Suffolk's safest Conservative seat. Although this is true at a parliamentary level, this is not the case locally-the former Forest Heath council area is mostly shared between the West Suffolk Independents and Independents in Mildenhall. Newmarket is mostly Conservative although a West Suffolk Independent was elected in that town in 2019, and Haverhill is largely shared between Independent and Labour councillors.
|
|
|
|
Post by John Chanin on May 18, 2020 18:59:48 GMT
Newmarket, Haverhill, and Mildenhall make this a mostly urban seat, unlike the neighbouring Suffolk seats. It really oughtn’t to be the “safest Conservative seat” in Suffolk.
|
|
|
|
Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on May 18, 2020 19:56:17 GMT
Useless fact: Mildenhall, Suffolk, is pronounced as spelt, and not as the real Mildenhall in Wiltshire.
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
|
Post by Sibboleth on May 18, 2020 21:02:08 GMT
Newmarket, Haverhill, and Mildenhall make this a mostly urban seat, unlike the neighbouring Suffolk seats. It really oughtn’t to be the “safest Conservative seat” in Suffolk. I suspect that if it came to it - and as absurd as the idea seems we really should not rule anything out these days - it probably wouldn't be, even if right now it might have the largest majority. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 19, 2020 14:03:55 GMT
Labour got the most votes in Suffolk in 1997 despite only winning two of the five constituencies in the county.
|
|
|
|
Post by John Chanin on May 19, 2020 14:56:24 GMT
Labour got the most votes in Suffolk in 1997 despite only winning two of the five constituencies in the county. Seven constituencies. |
|
|
|
Post by owainsutton on May 20, 2020 17:23:16 GMT
Useless fact: Mildenhall, Suffolk, is pronounced as spelt, and not as the real Mildenhall in Wiltshire. Whereas the second H in Haverhill is silent. The 'other' occupations perhaps also skewed by the presence of USAF personnel and families? |
|
bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,591 
|
Post by bsjmcr on Nov 28, 2020 17:46:36 GMT
To avoid further going out of topic on the Sherwood thread, how much could Hancock's majority be reduced by next time if not completely, if there was a concerted Labour effort? They came fairly close in '97, and it would be interesting to see how locals now view him, plus he now appears to be full-time in London (if his media appearances are anything to go by), unsurprisingly of course, as he does have a big job on his hands, but still this feels like a part of the country where strong visible local MPs are valued.
The National Health party did dent Hunt's majority in 2017 but ironically the Lib Dems did an even better job at that in 2019, more than halving it (probably more likely due to Brexit), but any negative perceptions of his tenure as HS must be a long and distant memory now compared to the current one. Could West Suffolk just end up being an Esher scenario where they come close but no cigar?
|
|
|
|
Post by Merseymike on Nov 28, 2020 17:59:31 GMT
To avoid further going out of topic on the Sherwood thread, how much could Hancock's majority be reduced by next time if not completely, if there was a concerted Labour effort? They came fairly close in '97, and it would be interesting to see how locals now view him, plus he now appears to be full-time in London (if his media appearances are anything to go by), unsurprisingly of course, as he does have a big job on his hands, but still this feels like a part of the country where strong visible local MPs are valued. The National Health party did dent Hunt's majority in 2017 but ironically the Lib Dems did an even better job at that in 2019, more than halving it (probably more likely due to Brexit), but any negative perceptions of his tenure as HS must be a long and distant memory now compared to the current one. Could West Suffolk just end up being an Esher scenario where they come close but no cigar? The traditional area of Labour strength is Haverhill, which has exactly the character of places which have swung away from Labour in recent years. Some of the other parts of the seat are very traditional Tory. I can imagine Hancock has plenty of constituents who don't rate him but this is a Tory seat, really. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 28, 2020 18:37:41 GMT
To avoid further going out of topic on the Sherwood thread, how much could Hancock's majority be reduced by next time if not completely, if there was a concerted Labour effort? They came fairly close in '97, and it would be interesting to see how locals now view him, plus he now appears to be full-time in London (if his media appearances are anything to go by), unsurprisingly of course, as he does have a big job on his hands, but still this feels like a part of the country where strong visible local MPs are valued. The National Health party did dent Hunt's majority in 2017 but ironically the Lib Dems did an even better job at that in 2019, more than halving it (probably more likely due to Brexit), but any negative perceptions of his tenure as HS must be a long and distant memory now compared to the current one. Could West Suffolk just end up being an Esher scenario where they come close but no cigar? Esher and Walton this is not. Hancock is safe as houses here I'd have thought. |
|
middyman
Conservative
"The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people's money."
Posts: 8,050
|
Post by middyman on Nov 28, 2020 20:33:55 GMT
To avoid further going out of topic on the Sherwood thread, how much could Hancock's majority be reduced by next time if not completely, if there was a concerted Labour effort? They came fairly close in '97, and it would be interesting to see how locals now view him, plus he now appears to be full-time in London (if his media appearances are anything to go by), unsurprisingly of course, as he does have a big job on his hands, but still this feels like a part of the country where strong visible local MPs are valued. The National Health party did dent Hunt's majority in 2017 but ironically the Lib Dems did an even better job at that in 2019, more than halving it (probably more likely due to Brexit), but any negative perceptions of his tenure as HS must be a long and distant memory now compared to the current one. Could West Suffolk just end up being an Esher scenario where they come close but no cigar? I do know that on Election Day 2019, Hancock spent most, if not all, the day helping in marginal constituencies, Ipswich in the morning, Cambridge in the afternoon and Peterborough in the evening. What with his ministerial duties, he may have not had the time to look after his constituency as he would have wished. Incidentally, Therese Coffey spent the entire day walking the streets of Ipswich in the pouring rain (as did her sister) helping in this marginal. |
|
bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,591
|
Post by bsjmcr on Nov 28, 2020 23:18:56 GMT
To avoid further going out of topic on the Sherwood thread, how much could Hancock's majority be reduced by next time if not completely, if there was a concerted Labour effort? They came fairly close in '97, and it would be interesting to see how locals now view him, plus he now appears to be full-time in London (if his media appearances are anything to go by), unsurprisingly of course, as he does have a big job on his hands, but still this feels like a part of the country where strong visible local MPs are valued. The National Health party did dent Hunt's majority in 2017 but ironically the Lib Dems did an even better job at that in 2019, more than halving it (probably more likely due to Brexit), but any negative perceptions of his tenure as HS must be a long and distant memory now compared to the current one. Could West Suffolk just end up being an Esher scenario where they come close but no cigar? I do know that on Election Day 2019, Hancock spent most, if not all, the day helping in marginal constituencies, Ipswich in the morning, Cambridge in the afternoon and Peterborough in the evening. What with his ministerial duties, he may have not had the time to look after his constituency as he would have wished. Incidentally, Therese Coffey spent the entire day walking the streets of Ipswich in the pouring rain (as did her sister) helping in this marginal. Good to know - I hope you mean South Cambridgeshire though, not Cambridge! |
|
middyman
Conservative
"The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people's money."
Posts: 8,050
|
Post by middyman on Nov 29, 2020 8:42:47 GMT
I do know that on Election Day 2019, Hancock spent most, if not all, the day helping in marginal constituencies, Ipswich in the morning, Cambridge in the afternoon and Peterborough in the evening. What with his ministerial duties, he may have not had the time to look after his constituency as he would have wished. Incidentally, Therese Coffey spent the entire day walking the streets of Ipswich in the pouring rain (as did her sister) helping in this marginal. Good to know - I hope you mean South Cambridgeshire though, not Cambridge! He didn’t specify. Our concern was how long he would be helping us. |
|
|
|
Post by yellowperil on Nov 29, 2020 9:30:29 GMT
Good to know - I hope you mean South Cambridgeshire though, not Cambridge! He didn’t specify. Our concern was how long he would be helping us. I would have assumed you would hope for as little as possible.  |
|
middyman
Conservative
"The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people's money."
Posts: 8,050
|
Post by middyman on Nov 29, 2020 10:35:26 GMT
He didn’t specify. Our concern was how long he would be helping us. I would have assumed you would hope for as little as possible. Ho! Ho! Ho! As far as I gathered, he was very good. |
|
|
|
Post by Robert Waller on Jun 4, 2021 9:50:12 GMT
2011 Census
Age 65+ 16.9% 311/650
Owner-occupied 62.1% 448/650
Private rented 18.7% 147/650
Social rented 15.4% 336/650
White 93.8% 132/650
Black 1.9% 466/650
Asian 2.6% 578/650
Passport N America/Caribbean 7.9% 1/650*
Employed other 12.2% 1/650*
Managerial & professional 28.7%
Routine & Semi-routine 29.8%
Degree level 20.2 % 503/650
No qualifications 25.0% 253/650
Students 5.3% 617/650
*US Air Force at Lakenheath
2021 Census
Owner occupied 60.9% 384/573
Private rented 23.5% 138/573
Social rented 15.7% 262/573
White 91.0%
Black 1.9%
Asian 2.6%
Managerial & professional 31.0% 316/573
Routine & Semi-routine 27.2% 171/573
Degree level 26.4% 446/573
No qualifications 22.6% 109/573
General Election 2019: West Suffolk
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Matt Hancock 33,842 65.8 +4.6
Labour Claire Unwin 10,648 20.7 -7.5
Liberal Democrats Elfreda Tealby-Watson 4,685 9.1 +4.9
Green Donald Allwright 2,262 4.4 +2.6
C Majority 23,194 45.1 +12.1
Turnout 51,437 64.1 -2.8
Conservative hold
Swing 6.1 Lab to C
|
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 15, 2023 13:36:24 GMT
In proposed boundary changes this seat will lose its Eastern panhandle (Bardwell, Barningham, Ixworth and Stanton wards) to Bury St Edmunds but gain Horringer in return, and the area around Clare from South Suffolk (the part of West Suffolk district currently included in that seat) There is barely any partisan effect as the notional numerical majority is reduced more or less in line with the reduction in the electorate. 2019 Notional result | Con | 32185 | 65.3% | | Lab | 10371 | 21.0% | | LD | 4416 | 9.0% | | Grn | 2263 | 4.6% | | Oth | 38 | 0.1% | | | | | | maj | 21814 | 44.3% | | | | |
|
|
