Post by AdminSTB on May 10, 2020 11:28:17 GMT
ROCHDALE
The Rochdale constituency’s history has been anything but dull in recent decades. It is one of those eastern Lancashire (now officially Greater Manchester) mill town constituencies in which the Liberals remained resilient long after the 1920s, when they were permanently cast into national third party status. For a while they were nearing extinction, and even here they did not field candidates in 1951 or 1955, which appeared to allow the Conservative candidate Wentworth Schofield to narrowly beat Labour twice. But Tory success came to a permanent end after Schofield died. They were pushed into third place at the resulting 1958 by-election when the Liberals decided to intervene again.
The real breakthrough came at the 1972 by-election, when local Liberal ex-mayor Cyril Smith, famous for his large physical size and blunt speaking, and affectionately known as “Big Cyril”, seized the seat and went on to win another five times as a large rock in a sea of major party MPs. This was his popular image throughout the 1970s and 1980s, and it wasn’t until after his death in 2010 that his name was blackened by serial child sexual abuse allegations.
On his retirement in 1992, the new Lib Dem candidate Liz Lynne defied expectations and held on, but she was swept aside by Lorna Fitzsimons in the New Labour landslide of 1997. Fitzsimons was in turn defeated by the Lib Dem candidate Paul Rowen in 2005, in part due to discontent over the UK’s involvement in the war with Iraq.
Despite Gordon Brown being caught on a tape recording describing a local woman during the 2010 campaign, Gillian Duffy, as a “bigot”, their candidate Simon Danczuk managed to win, possibly as a result of favourable boundary changes and the Tory advance, which hurt the Lib Dems more than Labour. This marked the end of Lib Dem success in the constituency, and they suffered very badly as a result of being a junior partner of the Conservative led government, slumping by a huge 24% in 2015 and falling back even further since then. Danczuk was re-elected in 2015, but was afterwards dropped as a candidate following reports he had exchanged messages with a 17 year old girl, which came as a particular embarrassment owing to his past campaigns on investigating historical sexual abuse among politicians, including his predecessor Cyril Smith. Danczuk stood as an independent in 2017 but lost his deposit, while Labour’s long serving Tony Lloyd, a former MP, Mayor and Police and Crime Commissioner won.
It should be remembered that Labour also have a long tradition in Rochdale. This was a boomtown during the Industrial Revolution, with its people employed in the textile industry, particularly cotton. It was also the birthplace of the Co-operative Movement.
More recently, it has become the home of a significant non-white community – particularly of Pakistani origin - which makes up over a quarter of the population. Unemployment, the number of people who consider themselves to be in poor health, and the proportion of younger voters are all relatively high. The constituency was estimated to have voted 57% in favour of leaving the European Union in 2016.
The Lib Dem decline since 2010 has been seen at local level, too. Before the forming of the Coalition with the Conservatives, they were a formidable force and could win most of the constituency’s eight wards. But in 2011 they failed to win a single one, most of them going to Labour. Only one, Milnrow and Newhey went back to the Lib Dems in 2015 and they have been winning it since.
The Conservatives have only been able to consistently win one ward, and a very strong one for them too: Wardle and West Littleborough. They can also pick up Littleborough Lakeside and Healey in a good year.
But Labour win the rest, including Central Rochdale, Balderstone/Kirkholt, Kingsway, Milkstone/Deeplish, Smallbridge/Firgrove and Spotbridge/Falinge. The Asian population are concentrated in the Central ward, Falinge and Smallbridge, although these are also poor areas with much council housing and white working class residents.
In 2019, Lloyd won a majority of 9,668 over the Conservatives, indicating that Rochdale is now a safe Labour seat. The Lib Dems came fourth behind the Brexit Party and it seems their best days are behind them, unless perhaps a very well timed by-election opportunity should arise again.
The Rochdale constituency’s history has been anything but dull in recent decades. It is one of those eastern Lancashire (now officially Greater Manchester) mill town constituencies in which the Liberals remained resilient long after the 1920s, when they were permanently cast into national third party status. For a while they were nearing extinction, and even here they did not field candidates in 1951 or 1955, which appeared to allow the Conservative candidate Wentworth Schofield to narrowly beat Labour twice. But Tory success came to a permanent end after Schofield died. They were pushed into third place at the resulting 1958 by-election when the Liberals decided to intervene again.
The real breakthrough came at the 1972 by-election, when local Liberal ex-mayor Cyril Smith, famous for his large physical size and blunt speaking, and affectionately known as “Big Cyril”, seized the seat and went on to win another five times as a large rock in a sea of major party MPs. This was his popular image throughout the 1970s and 1980s, and it wasn’t until after his death in 2010 that his name was blackened by serial child sexual abuse allegations.
On his retirement in 1992, the new Lib Dem candidate Liz Lynne defied expectations and held on, but she was swept aside by Lorna Fitzsimons in the New Labour landslide of 1997. Fitzsimons was in turn defeated by the Lib Dem candidate Paul Rowen in 2005, in part due to discontent over the UK’s involvement in the war with Iraq.
Despite Gordon Brown being caught on a tape recording describing a local woman during the 2010 campaign, Gillian Duffy, as a “bigot”, their candidate Simon Danczuk managed to win, possibly as a result of favourable boundary changes and the Tory advance, which hurt the Lib Dems more than Labour. This marked the end of Lib Dem success in the constituency, and they suffered very badly as a result of being a junior partner of the Conservative led government, slumping by a huge 24% in 2015 and falling back even further since then. Danczuk was re-elected in 2015, but was afterwards dropped as a candidate following reports he had exchanged messages with a 17 year old girl, which came as a particular embarrassment owing to his past campaigns on investigating historical sexual abuse among politicians, including his predecessor Cyril Smith. Danczuk stood as an independent in 2017 but lost his deposit, while Labour’s long serving Tony Lloyd, a former MP, Mayor and Police and Crime Commissioner won.
It should be remembered that Labour also have a long tradition in Rochdale. This was a boomtown during the Industrial Revolution, with its people employed in the textile industry, particularly cotton. It was also the birthplace of the Co-operative Movement.
More recently, it has become the home of a significant non-white community – particularly of Pakistani origin - which makes up over a quarter of the population. Unemployment, the number of people who consider themselves to be in poor health, and the proportion of younger voters are all relatively high. The constituency was estimated to have voted 57% in favour of leaving the European Union in 2016.
The Lib Dem decline since 2010 has been seen at local level, too. Before the forming of the Coalition with the Conservatives, they were a formidable force and could win most of the constituency’s eight wards. But in 2011 they failed to win a single one, most of them going to Labour. Only one, Milnrow and Newhey went back to the Lib Dems in 2015 and they have been winning it since.
The Conservatives have only been able to consistently win one ward, and a very strong one for them too: Wardle and West Littleborough. They can also pick up Littleborough Lakeside and Healey in a good year.
But Labour win the rest, including Central Rochdale, Balderstone/Kirkholt, Kingsway, Milkstone/Deeplish, Smallbridge/Firgrove and Spotbridge/Falinge. The Asian population are concentrated in the Central ward, Falinge and Smallbridge, although these are also poor areas with much council housing and white working class residents.
In 2019, Lloyd won a majority of 9,668 over the Conservatives, indicating that Rochdale is now a safe Labour seat. The Lib Dems came fourth behind the Brexit Party and it seems their best days are behind them, unless perhaps a very well timed by-election opportunity should arise again.
