Post by iang on May 9, 2020 21:33:51 GMT
This is Brexit country. In an authority which is overwhelmingly pro-Brexit (only one ward, Paddock in Walsall South, voted Remain), this is the Brexit heartland. In the UKIP surge of 2014, the Kippers won two of the Willenhall wards, and were second in the other five in Walsall North, missing out by less than 10% in both Bloxwich wards. The UKIP challenge may have faded, the spirit that they were channelling certainly has not. Walsall declared on an authority basis in the EU Referendum, 68% Leave. Walsall North is reckoned to have voted 74% Leave, a figure exceeded in constituencies by only Boston and Skegness on the Lincolnshire coast. From 2015 to 2019, the constituency has seen a cumulative 19% swing to the Tories, turning it from Labour marginal to Tory marginal to seemingly rock-solid Conservative seat. Only in the 1966 Labour landslide was the Labour vote (marginally) higher than the 63.8% that Eddie Hughes earned in 2019.
Not that Walsall North has not dabbled in Conservatism before. In the boundary changes of 1974, Willenhall – previously part of a Wednesbury seat – became part of Walsall North, and with Willenhall came Wednesbury’s MP – John Stonehouse. Marital disharmony and approaching bankruptcy caused Stonehouse to fake his own death and flee with his mistress to Australia, where his dubious financial transactions led to his arrest, although Australian police apparently thought they’d netted the greater prize of Lord Lucan. In the circumstances, it is hardly a surprise that the Conservatives gained the seat in the consequent by-election, which took place in 1976. However, the defeated Labour candidate, David Winnick, recovered the constituency in the 1979 General Election, and held it to 2017. However, only in the Blair years was Winnick’s majority comfortable, and it sank to below a thousand in 2010, before recovering a little to a still vulnerable 1,937 in 2015. Eddie Hughes, a long-standing Walsall Conservative councillor (albeit for affluent Streetly, about as far from Walsall North as it is possible to get within the authority) gained the first Tory General Election victory in 2017, with a majority of around 2 ½ thousand, and converted this to a scarcely credible margin of virtually 12,000 two years later.
This is not an affluent constituency. Eddie Hughes’ victory in 2017 was perhaps a harbinger of what was to come in 2019 – predominantly white working-class seats which had voted for Brexit seeing Labour swept away as the so-called “Red Wall” crumbled. The main settlements within Walsall North are Bloxwich (in local elections at least, the most Conservative part of the seat) and Willenhall, both of which border Wolverhampton to the east of Walsall. Willenhall was until the beginning of this century the centre of Britain’s lock making industry. The remaining two wards, Blakenhall and Birchills-Leamore, push closer into central Walsall. None are particularly middle class. Birchills-Leamore is the second most deprived ward in the authority, with almost half its residents (47%) in socially rented housing. Only in Willenhall North and Short Heath does the proportion of social renting fall below at least a quarter. The constituency as a whole is 86% White British, in line with national averages, and significantly above the regional average. Bloxwich is particularly white – only in Willenhall South does the White British population fall below 80% (to 75% - this ward is the only area with a significant Asian presence at 15% of the population). As the ward figures above indicate, this is a seat with a great deal of socially rented housing – over 30% overall, the 34th highest in England and Wales. 17% of the residents are in professional or managerial roles, 15% in elementary work. The region’s manufacturing heritage is perhaps indicated by the presence of 15 ½ % recorded as working in skilled trades, the 40th highest of any parliamentary constituency. Educational qualifications are a far cry from the image of a safe Conservative seat. 39% of the local electorate lack any formal qualifications (the second highest in England and Wales) whereas only 12% have degree level qualifications or an equivalent, leaving it ranked in 572nd place in that particular list. Willenhall North is the most educated ward – 15% have degrees, just under a third lack any qualifications. In Blakenhall, the figures sink to 9% for degree qualifications, and soar to 46% for those who seemingly left education with nothing to show for it. This is not stockbroker country.
Politically, even when holding the seat at parliamentary level, Labour have often struggled to win a majority of the wards within it. Bloxwich West is the one reliable Conservative ward, returning a slate of Tory councillors in the all ups of 2004, and only won by Labour in the early Coalition years of 2011 and 2012. Bloxwich East returned two Conservatives and one Labour in those 2004 all up elections, and the Conservatives have continued to win it in good years, although it is usually Labour. Blakenhall ought to be a comfortable Labour ward – but a bit of Walsall political history is called for here. In the mid-1990s, a faction struggle in Walsall Labour Party saw the left win control, then lose it when Labour’s NEC suspended Walsall Council leader Dave Church and others. This resulted in a breakaway faction, referred to by various labels but most commonly “Democratic Labour” contesting borough elections. Once various breakaway councillors were defeated, the faction mostly received derisory votes – except in Blakenhall. Here, former DLP councillor Peter Smith won the ward from Labour in 2007, lost in 2011, but won again in 2012. Defeated in 2016, he still polled over 30% of the Blakenhall vote in the last two rounds of local elections, and could presumably win again. Meanwhile, in Willenhall an even more long-established councillor dominated. Even within this Brexit heartland, Willenhall has long been a hot-bed of Liberal / Lib Dem activity. The two wards of Willenhall North and Short Heath have returned Liberal councillors since the beginning of the 1980s until the Coalition years (Willenhall South joined them in the early 90s). In 1982 in fact, the Lib/SDP Alliance won four of the seven wards in the constituency and would have “won” the Parliamentary seat by over 3000 votes. Lib Dem group leader Councillor Ian Shires was first elected in 1979, and was due to defend his Willenhall North seat this year – are there any other Lib Dem councillors with over forty years continuous service? Of course, this does not mean that Willenhall is an oasis of Remain, far from it – in 2015, the votes for the (defeated) Lib Dem candidates in those two wards EACH exceeded the Lib Dem Parliamentary vote in Walsall North as a whole. In summary then, only Birchills, and since the mid-90s Willenhall South, have been truly reliable for Labour.
And since 2017, Conservative dominance has been expressed at local as well as Parliamentary level. On Eddie Hughes’ coat-tails, Conservative councillors have won not just in both Bloxwich wards, but in 2018 and 2019 in formerly Lib Dem Willenhall North and Short Heath also, leaving the last two Lib Dem councillors in the whole Black Country to see if they can cling on when elections take place next year. Even Birchills-Leamore has gone Conservative for the first time in a full council election in the 2019 elections. Eddie Hughes was reckoned to have carried every ward in 2019 at the General Election. Local Conservatives might be wondering if they can do the same when elections do resume next year. Of course, in time, Brexit will lose its impact as an issue – but it is difficult to see a Labour resurgence in Walsall North any time soon.
Not that Walsall North has not dabbled in Conservatism before. In the boundary changes of 1974, Willenhall – previously part of a Wednesbury seat – became part of Walsall North, and with Willenhall came Wednesbury’s MP – John Stonehouse. Marital disharmony and approaching bankruptcy caused Stonehouse to fake his own death and flee with his mistress to Australia, where his dubious financial transactions led to his arrest, although Australian police apparently thought they’d netted the greater prize of Lord Lucan. In the circumstances, it is hardly a surprise that the Conservatives gained the seat in the consequent by-election, which took place in 1976. However, the defeated Labour candidate, David Winnick, recovered the constituency in the 1979 General Election, and held it to 2017. However, only in the Blair years was Winnick’s majority comfortable, and it sank to below a thousand in 2010, before recovering a little to a still vulnerable 1,937 in 2015. Eddie Hughes, a long-standing Walsall Conservative councillor (albeit for affluent Streetly, about as far from Walsall North as it is possible to get within the authority) gained the first Tory General Election victory in 2017, with a majority of around 2 ½ thousand, and converted this to a scarcely credible margin of virtually 12,000 two years later.
This is not an affluent constituency. Eddie Hughes’ victory in 2017 was perhaps a harbinger of what was to come in 2019 – predominantly white working-class seats which had voted for Brexit seeing Labour swept away as the so-called “Red Wall” crumbled. The main settlements within Walsall North are Bloxwich (in local elections at least, the most Conservative part of the seat) and Willenhall, both of which border Wolverhampton to the east of Walsall. Willenhall was until the beginning of this century the centre of Britain’s lock making industry. The remaining two wards, Blakenhall and Birchills-Leamore, push closer into central Walsall. None are particularly middle class. Birchills-Leamore is the second most deprived ward in the authority, with almost half its residents (47%) in socially rented housing. Only in Willenhall North and Short Heath does the proportion of social renting fall below at least a quarter. The constituency as a whole is 86% White British, in line with national averages, and significantly above the regional average. Bloxwich is particularly white – only in Willenhall South does the White British population fall below 80% (to 75% - this ward is the only area with a significant Asian presence at 15% of the population). As the ward figures above indicate, this is a seat with a great deal of socially rented housing – over 30% overall, the 34th highest in England and Wales. 17% of the residents are in professional or managerial roles, 15% in elementary work. The region’s manufacturing heritage is perhaps indicated by the presence of 15 ½ % recorded as working in skilled trades, the 40th highest of any parliamentary constituency. Educational qualifications are a far cry from the image of a safe Conservative seat. 39% of the local electorate lack any formal qualifications (the second highest in England and Wales) whereas only 12% have degree level qualifications or an equivalent, leaving it ranked in 572nd place in that particular list. Willenhall North is the most educated ward – 15% have degrees, just under a third lack any qualifications. In Blakenhall, the figures sink to 9% for degree qualifications, and soar to 46% for those who seemingly left education with nothing to show for it. This is not stockbroker country.
Politically, even when holding the seat at parliamentary level, Labour have often struggled to win a majority of the wards within it. Bloxwich West is the one reliable Conservative ward, returning a slate of Tory councillors in the all ups of 2004, and only won by Labour in the early Coalition years of 2011 and 2012. Bloxwich East returned two Conservatives and one Labour in those 2004 all up elections, and the Conservatives have continued to win it in good years, although it is usually Labour. Blakenhall ought to be a comfortable Labour ward – but a bit of Walsall political history is called for here. In the mid-1990s, a faction struggle in Walsall Labour Party saw the left win control, then lose it when Labour’s NEC suspended Walsall Council leader Dave Church and others. This resulted in a breakaway faction, referred to by various labels but most commonly “Democratic Labour” contesting borough elections. Once various breakaway councillors were defeated, the faction mostly received derisory votes – except in Blakenhall. Here, former DLP councillor Peter Smith won the ward from Labour in 2007, lost in 2011, but won again in 2012. Defeated in 2016, he still polled over 30% of the Blakenhall vote in the last two rounds of local elections, and could presumably win again. Meanwhile, in Willenhall an even more long-established councillor dominated. Even within this Brexit heartland, Willenhall has long been a hot-bed of Liberal / Lib Dem activity. The two wards of Willenhall North and Short Heath have returned Liberal councillors since the beginning of the 1980s until the Coalition years (Willenhall South joined them in the early 90s). In 1982 in fact, the Lib/SDP Alliance won four of the seven wards in the constituency and would have “won” the Parliamentary seat by over 3000 votes. Lib Dem group leader Councillor Ian Shires was first elected in 1979, and was due to defend his Willenhall North seat this year – are there any other Lib Dem councillors with over forty years continuous service? Of course, this does not mean that Willenhall is an oasis of Remain, far from it – in 2015, the votes for the (defeated) Lib Dem candidates in those two wards EACH exceeded the Lib Dem Parliamentary vote in Walsall North as a whole. In summary then, only Birchills, and since the mid-90s Willenhall South, have been truly reliable for Labour.
And since 2017, Conservative dominance has been expressed at local as well as Parliamentary level. On Eddie Hughes’ coat-tails, Conservative councillors have won not just in both Bloxwich wards, but in 2018 and 2019 in formerly Lib Dem Willenhall North and Short Heath also, leaving the last two Lib Dem councillors in the whole Black Country to see if they can cling on when elections take place next year. Even Birchills-Leamore has gone Conservative for the first time in a full council election in the 2019 elections. Eddie Hughes was reckoned to have carried every ward in 2019 at the General Election. Local Conservatives might be wondering if they can do the same when elections do resume next year. Of course, in time, Brexit will lose its impact as an issue – but it is difficult to see a Labour resurgence in Walsall North any time soon.
