Post by bsjmcr on May 6, 2020 0:22:17 GMT
Although on the face of it you wouldn't perhaps believe it, Heywood and Middleton has actually produced some remarkable election results of recent. It was one of the more unprecedented Conservative gains in 2019, having never been taken by the party in the history of the seat, as the 2017 result was a not-really-marginal majority of almost 8,000 for Labour, notwithstanding a stubborn 3,000 votes for UKIP at that election even though their raison d'être seemed extinct at the time. On 6th September 2014 all eyes and cameras were on Clacton to see if UKIP defector Douglas Carswell would keep his seat, he did, but nobody seemed to talk about how UKIP were in recount territory here, where Labour held by just 617 votes - though that was an increased vote share - UKIP's votes coming at the expense of Tories and Lib Dem votes. Less than a year later at the general election and this seat did still produce one of the best results for UKIP in the country, but they still finished runners up, 5,000 votes behind Labour. Going back further, it should also be noted that the BNP comfortably held their deposit with 7% in 2010.
Why is this? Well the two eponymous towns would have been thriving during the Industrial Revolution as cotton mill towns, but as they closed and with little other industry to fall back on, they became pretty deprived and depressed. Covering the western half of the Rochdale borough, there must be disaffection with and detachment from Rochdale proper as well. Those with no qualifications is higher than average, and the proportion of graduates much lower. As such the percentage of professionals and managers is significantly lower than average and elementary occupations higher. Heywood is particularly working class and has struggled for some time, despite being surrounded by green belt and hills to the north. There are attempts at job creation here with the huge Heywood Distribution Park which takes advantage of its convenient location near the motorway. One of the largest if not the largest such 'park' in the North West, it is a local hub of logistics and industry. More recently, Elon Musk almost chose Heywood as the location to build his latest line of futuristic electric cars, but he went with Berlin in the end (Brexit, anyone?). A sliver of green space and the M62 separates it from Middleton to the south which is equally working class and formerly industrial and dominated by the notorious Langley estate, one of the larger 1960s overspill estates commissioned by Manchester City Council (outside their boundaries, of course Wythenshawe is the biggest). The tower blocks are mostly gone but the depressing terraces are still there and house prices much cheaper than neighbouring Prestwich or even Blackley. South Middleton includes 'Alkrington Garden Village' which is a more salubrious suburb of Middleton with some attractive leafy housing, but even this area is generally Labour on the council. It is separated from Blackley and Manchester in the south by the M60 motorway. Middleton is generally more urban than Heywood and the northern half of the constituency but does include some green space at Alkrington Woods Nature Reserve, as well as two golf clubs, North Manchester, and Blackley.
This is a surprisingly green constituency in more ways than one - it includes most of Scout Moor Wind Farm in the far north, the second largest onshore wind farm in the country. The sparser population can be illustrated in the map of this constituency which is the same length as the neighbouring Bury North and South constituencies combined! Most of the northern area is uninhabited for miles, stretching into the Pennines with several reservoirs, moors and great scenery.
The northernmost settlements of note in this seat, edging towards Rochdale, are Norden and Bamford, effectively suburbs of Rochdale. These are and have always been safe Conservative seats on Rochdale Council and would have been the bedrock of the constituency's Conservative vote here through thick and thin (which was never too derisory, only dipping below 10,000 in '05 and '15). There is particularly opulent housing and some mansions to be seen in Bamford and Norden, with the distant hills (and wind turbines) a permanent fixture of the landscape, not what you would think of when you think Rochdale. The Green Belt land between Heywood and Middleton to the west however is at imminent risk of being lost under the 'Greater Manchester Spatial Framework', which plans a massive extension to the Heywood industrial complex which would see most of the current farmland gone. The manor houses once owned by the factory owners and aristocrats round here have sadly seen better days. Hopwood Hall gives its name to a council ward in Heywood (safely Labour) and Sixth Form college and currently stands derelict. Tonge Hall in Middleton even worse so having been set on fire and just about remains standing.
At its incarnation in 1983 the seat was held by Jim Callaghan (not that one) who astutely followed his Middleton voters from Prestwich and Middleton where he had been since 1974 to this new seat (at the time Prestwich was still a Tory stronghold). He took it with a majority of 4,000 in Labour's then-nadir and remained here until retiring in 1997. A health centre in Heywood is named after him in honour of his long and dedicated service to the area. Jim Dobbin took over in 1997, with more than double his predecessor's majority at over 17,500. A rare scientist MP (formerly a microbiologist at nearby Royal Oldham Hospital) he had been a local councillor for some time beforehand. His majority was trimmed to less than 6,000 in 2010 when current Bath MP Wera Hobhouse was the Lib Dem candidate who came a close 3rd. Dobbin tragically died in 2014, precipitating the by-election at which Liz McInnes snuck in to Parliament. Remarkably she is also a former biochemist, born in Oldham, Oxford-educated and based in Rossendale to the north prior to her election. She did a good job to boost her majority in 2015 and 17, but was toppled in 2019 by 663 votes. One of her more notable moments towards the end of her tenure was her incessant heckling of former Labour turned independent MPs Ian Austin and Ivan Lewis on a late night sitting. The 2019 victor is Chris Clarkson, a former Councillor in Salford, for the affluent Worsley ward. He is openly gay, truly a sign of progress for the Conservative and in terms of his success in what must be a more socially conservative constituency. But with Brexit 'done', he will have to work his socks off to have a chance of holding on here in 2024. Keir Starmer would have to be the heaviest lead balloon in the world in this part of the country if Labour fails to retake it.
Why is this? Well the two eponymous towns would have been thriving during the Industrial Revolution as cotton mill towns, but as they closed and with little other industry to fall back on, they became pretty deprived and depressed. Covering the western half of the Rochdale borough, there must be disaffection with and detachment from Rochdale proper as well. Those with no qualifications is higher than average, and the proportion of graduates much lower. As such the percentage of professionals and managers is significantly lower than average and elementary occupations higher. Heywood is particularly working class and has struggled for some time, despite being surrounded by green belt and hills to the north. There are attempts at job creation here with the huge Heywood Distribution Park which takes advantage of its convenient location near the motorway. One of the largest if not the largest such 'park' in the North West, it is a local hub of logistics and industry. More recently, Elon Musk almost chose Heywood as the location to build his latest line of futuristic electric cars, but he went with Berlin in the end (Brexit, anyone?). A sliver of green space and the M62 separates it from Middleton to the south which is equally working class and formerly industrial and dominated by the notorious Langley estate, one of the larger 1960s overspill estates commissioned by Manchester City Council (outside their boundaries, of course Wythenshawe is the biggest). The tower blocks are mostly gone but the depressing terraces are still there and house prices much cheaper than neighbouring Prestwich or even Blackley. South Middleton includes 'Alkrington Garden Village' which is a more salubrious suburb of Middleton with some attractive leafy housing, but even this area is generally Labour on the council. It is separated from Blackley and Manchester in the south by the M60 motorway. Middleton is generally more urban than Heywood and the northern half of the constituency but does include some green space at Alkrington Woods Nature Reserve, as well as two golf clubs, North Manchester, and Blackley.
This is a surprisingly green constituency in more ways than one - it includes most of Scout Moor Wind Farm in the far north, the second largest onshore wind farm in the country. The sparser population can be illustrated in the map of this constituency which is the same length as the neighbouring Bury North and South constituencies combined! Most of the northern area is uninhabited for miles, stretching into the Pennines with several reservoirs, moors and great scenery.
The northernmost settlements of note in this seat, edging towards Rochdale, are Norden and Bamford, effectively suburbs of Rochdale. These are and have always been safe Conservative seats on Rochdale Council and would have been the bedrock of the constituency's Conservative vote here through thick and thin (which was never too derisory, only dipping below 10,000 in '05 and '15). There is particularly opulent housing and some mansions to be seen in Bamford and Norden, with the distant hills (and wind turbines) a permanent fixture of the landscape, not what you would think of when you think Rochdale. The Green Belt land between Heywood and Middleton to the west however is at imminent risk of being lost under the 'Greater Manchester Spatial Framework', which plans a massive extension to the Heywood industrial complex which would see most of the current farmland gone. The manor houses once owned by the factory owners and aristocrats round here have sadly seen better days. Hopwood Hall gives its name to a council ward in Heywood (safely Labour) and Sixth Form college and currently stands derelict. Tonge Hall in Middleton even worse so having been set on fire and just about remains standing.
At its incarnation in 1983 the seat was held by Jim Callaghan (not that one) who astutely followed his Middleton voters from Prestwich and Middleton where he had been since 1974 to this new seat (at the time Prestwich was still a Tory stronghold). He took it with a majority of 4,000 in Labour's then-nadir and remained here until retiring in 1997. A health centre in Heywood is named after him in honour of his long and dedicated service to the area. Jim Dobbin took over in 1997, with more than double his predecessor's majority at over 17,500. A rare scientist MP (formerly a microbiologist at nearby Royal Oldham Hospital) he had been a local councillor for some time beforehand. His majority was trimmed to less than 6,000 in 2010 when current Bath MP Wera Hobhouse was the Lib Dem candidate who came a close 3rd. Dobbin tragically died in 2014, precipitating the by-election at which Liz McInnes snuck in to Parliament. Remarkably she is also a former biochemist, born in Oldham, Oxford-educated and based in Rossendale to the north prior to her election. She did a good job to boost her majority in 2015 and 17, but was toppled in 2019 by 663 votes. One of her more notable moments towards the end of her tenure was her incessant heckling of former Labour turned independent MPs Ian Austin and Ivan Lewis on a late night sitting. The 2019 victor is Chris Clarkson, a former Councillor in Salford, for the affluent Worsley ward. He is openly gay, truly a sign of progress for the Conservative and in terms of his success in what must be a more socially conservative constituency. But with Brexit 'done', he will have to work his socks off to have a chance of holding on here in 2024. Keir Starmer would have to be the heaviest lead balloon in the world in this part of the country if Labour fails to retake it.
