Eltham

[jacoblamsden]

Eltham, located to the south of the Royal Borough of Greenwich, is an unlikely London suburb to house a historic royal palace. While most places with a royal connection have a lingering opulence about them, The Royal Borough of Kensington and Chelsea, Windsor and Royal Tunbridge Wells perhaps, few would say Eltham warrants such a description. Perhaps this is because Eltham has been influenced far more by industry and the military than it has by royalty, located close enough to Woolwich to have developed into a residential area for many working at the Royal Arsenal and Royal Artillery Barracks. Eltham is clearly a cut above Woolwich though, with some fine housing such as the Eltham Park and Progress Estates built to house senior and skilled workers.

But whilst Eltham may not be particularly posh, neither is it a gritty London suburb. For somewhere admitted into the County of London in 1889, Eltham feels still remarkably distant from much of the capital. Population density is low for London standards, with large areas of green space around New Eltham and woodland near Shooters Hill. The constituency, but particularly Eltham itself, has little of the diversity of Woolwich or Lewisham with three of the four Eltham wards three-quarters White British. There are also few privately rented properties and a much higher owner occupation rate than most London seats. All these statistics would seem to point to a Conservative seat, especially since neighbouring Bromley and Chislehurst, Old Bexley and Sidcup and Bexleyheath and Crayford are all safely in the blue column. It is therefore a puzzle, not so much that Eltham went Labour in the landslide of 1997 but that it has stayed there ever since. Despite the constituency voting to leave in the EU referendum and the Brexit Party topping the poll at the most recent European elections, ex-cab driver Clive Efford has hung on with his current majority a relatively comfortable 3,197.

Some of the explanation for Labour’s resilience here is that there is more to the seat than Eltham itself. The three wards in the north and west of the constituency – Shooters Hill, Kidbrooke and Hornfair and Middle Park and Sutcliffe - are easily Labour, having a much higher proportion of renters, a younger average age and a much higher ethnic population (this being south-east London it is more black than Asian). But since these three wards can be outvoted by the four Eltham wards, Labour must also be competitive in Eltham itself. This is borne out by the last set of local election results which yielded no safe wards for the Conservatives in the constituency. They couldn’t even take a full house in Eltham North, the whitest and wealthiest ward of them all and were not even close to gaining a seat in Eltham West, a ward with plenty of the white working-class demographic which has swung so much to the Conservative in recent elections. Whatever the real reason for Conservative underperformance over successive elections in Eltham, the current Father of the House, Peter Bottomley, was certainly right to make a chicken run from Eltham to safer pastures in Worthing back in 1997. For if Eltham could not even go Conservative in 2019, it is hard to see it falling any time soon.

[jacoblamsden]

May 5, 2020 21:13:55 GMT @barnabymarder said:

It's not an area of London I know well. A close friend lived very nearby for a time, but he's moved out to Bromley now.

I did the same! There was certainly quite a few people originally from Eltham living in Bromley and Beckenham when I was there - just as there is a load of people originally from Bromley now living in Tunbridge Wells where I am now.  

[greenhert]

This distance from the capital as well as less diverse demographics also explain why UKIP polled as much as 15% here in 2015, whereas in the majority of Inner London (i.e. old County of London) constituencies the UKIP candidate lost their deposit in 2015.

[iang]

Eltham Palace is well worth visiting. There's hardly any of the Tudor palace left, but it was converted into a magnificent Art Deco house (with a bathroom to die for, daaarling). Rather less happily, it was at a bus stop in the Well Hall area of Eltham that Stephen Lawrence was attacked and murdered.

[Deleted]

May 6, 2020 9:16:59 GMT iang said:

Eltham Palace is well worth visiting. There's hardly any of the Tudor palace left, but it was converted into a magnificent Art Deco house (with a bathroom to die for, daaarling). Rather less happily, it was at a bus stop in the Well Hall area of Eltham that Stephen Lawrence was attacked and murdered.

The Great Hall is actually a little earlier than the Tudor period - it dates from the 1470s, from the reign of Edward IV.

The walled garden, moat and north bridge also pre-date the Courtaulds.

[Robert Waller]

2011 Census

Age 65+ 14.3% 500/650
Owner-occupied 58.6% 497/650
Private rented 12.0% 459/650
Social rented 27.5% 78/650
White 76.6% 543/650
Black 9.9% 46/650
Asian 7.9% 156/650
Managerial & professional 31.0%
Routine & Semi-routine 21.2%
Degree level 27.8% 247/650
No qualifications 23.5% 306/650
Students 10.4% 136/650


2021 Census

Owner occupied 56.4% 441/573
Private rented 17.4% 325/573
Social rented 26.2% 59/573
White 67.8%
Black 13.1%
Asian 10.2%
Managerial & professional 36.4% 183/573
Routine & Semi-routine 18.9% 448/573
Degree level 39.9% 104/573
No qualifications 18.4% 253/573



General Election 2019: Eltham

Party Candidate Votes % ±%

Labour Clive Efford 20,550 47.0 -7.4
Conservative Louie French 17,353 39.7 -1.1
Liberal Democrats Charley Hasted 2,941 6.7 +3.6
Brexit Party Steve Kelleher 1,523 3.5 N/A
Green Matthew Stratford 1,322 3.0 N/A

Lab Majority 3,197 7.3 -6.3

Turnout 43,689 68.2 -3.4

Registered electors 64,084

Labour hold
Swing 3.2 Lab to C

[Pete Whitehead]

ELtham is considerably under quota and in the proposals by the boundary commission (the initial and revised plans are the same) the Shooters Hill ward is removed to Erith & Thamesmead. To bring it in quota nearly 20,000 voters are brought in from the borough of Bromley in the wards of Chislehurst and Mottingham. Chislehurst is an overwhelmingly strong Conservative ward. Mottingham is somewhat more marginal (historically indeed a Labour ward which contributed to previous Labour victories in the old Chislehurst seat). Overall the addition of these two wards together with the loss of Shooters Hill (Labour's strongest ward in the current Eltham) transforms the political balance of this seat. The Mottingham area itself spills across the borough boundary (the Coldharbour & New Eltham ward has now been renamed 'Mottingham, Coldharbour & New Eltham') so there is some logic to the pairing.
This is the only Labour seat in London to be translated into a 'notional' Conservative seat based on the 2019 results. It is hardly by an insurmountable margin though and given the continued drift of much of Eltham away from the Conservatives and the likely national swing a the next election, a Conservative held Eltham & Chislehurst seat may not (ever?) become a reality.

Notional result 2019 on the proposed new boundaries - Eltham & Chislehurst

Con	23211	45.6%
Lab	20674	40.6%
LD	4033	7.9%
Grn	1488	2.9%
BxP	1348	2.7%
Oth	107	0.2%
Majority	2537	5.0%

[batman]

Indeed, at present there are no entirely Conservative-held wards remaining in the Borough of Greenwich, every ward having at least one Labour councillor. It's a tall order for the Tories to win this new seat even if Clive Efford retires.

[batman]

Looking at past election results, though, it comes as some surprise to note that there was a time when Shooters Hill was a pretty safe Tory ward.

[Pete Whitehead]

Nov 29, 2022 18:59:44 GMT batman said:

Looking at past election results, though, it comes as some surprise to note that there was a time when Shooters Hill was a pretty safe Tory ward.

The pre-1978 Shooters Hill ward covered a quite different area, all south of Shooters Hill (the A207) and corresponds more to the current Eltham Nortfh. The wards of that vintage which covered the area now included in Shooters Hill ward were Academy, Slade and St Margaret's - all safe Labour wards except for in 1968

[batman]

thanks Pete, that's a good explanation, I can't pretend it's an area of London I know at all well.

[rockefeller]

Nov 29, 2022 18:24:41 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

ELtham is considerably under quota and in the proposals by the boundary commission (the initial and revised plans are the same) the Shooters Hill ward is removed to Erith & Thamesmead. To bring it in quota nearly 20,000 voters are brought in from the borough of Bromley in the wards of Chislehurst and Mottingham. Chislehurst is an overwhelmingly strong Conservative ward. Mottingham is somewhat more marginal (historically indeed a Labour ward which contributed to previous Labour victories in the old Chislehurst seat). Overall the addition of these two wards together with the loss of Shooters Hill (Labour's strongest ward in the current Eltham) transforms the political balance of this seat. The Mottingham area itself spills across the borough boundary (the Coldharbour & New Eltham ward has now been renamed 'Mottingham, Coldharbour & New Eltham') so there is some logic to the pairing.
This is the only Labour seat in London to be translated into a 'notional' Conservative seat based on the 2019 results. It is hardly by an insurmountable margin though and given the continued drift of much of Eltham away from the Conservatives and the likely national swing a the next election, a Conservative held Eltham & Chislehurst seat may not (ever?) become a reality.

Notional result 2019 on the proposed new boundaries - Eltham & Chislehurst

Con	23211	45.6%
Lab	20674	40.6%
LD	4033	7.9%
Grn	1488	2.9%
BxP	1348	2.7%
Oth	107	0.2%
Majority	2537	5.0%

Looking at the local election results in Bromley, Labour would surely fancy their chances in that seat. 

[Pete Whitehead]

Nov 30, 2022 8:52:39 GMT rockefeller said:

Nov 29, 2022 18:24:41 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

ELtham is considerably under quota and in the proposals by the boundary commission (the initial and revised plans are the same) the Shooters Hill ward is removed to Erith & Thamesmead. To bring it in quota nearly 20,000 voters are brought in from the borough of Bromley in the wards of Chislehurst and Mottingham. Chislehurst is an overwhelmingly strong Conservative ward. Mottingham is somewhat more marginal (historically indeed a Labour ward which contributed to previous Labour victories in the old Chislehurst seat). Overall the addition of these two wards together with the loss of Shooters Hill (Labour's strongest ward in the current Eltham) transforms the political balance of this seat. The Mottingham area itself spills across the borough boundary (the Coldharbour & New Eltham ward has now been renamed 'Mottingham, Coldharbour & New Eltham') so there is some logic to the pairing.
This is the only Labour seat in London to be translated into a 'notional' Conservative seat based on the 2019 results. It is hardly by an insurmountable margin though and given the continued drift of much of Eltham away from the Conservatives and the likely national swing a the next election, a Conservative held Eltham & Chislehurst seat may not (ever?) become a reality.

Notional result 2019 on the proposed new boundaries - Eltham & Chislehurst

Con	23211	45.6%
Lab	20674	40.6%
LD	4033	7.9%
Grn	1488	2.9%
BxP	1348	2.7%
Oth	107	0.2%
Majority	2537	5.0%

Looking at the local election results in Bromley, Labour would surely fancy their chances in that seat. 

I should have thought the local election results in Greenwich (as batman alluded to) would have more relevance. Labour's advance in Bromley came in wards other than those coming into this seat - sure they came close in Mottingham but that used to be a safe Labour ward (even allowing for less favourable ward boundaries). But obviously Labour will fancy their chances in any seat where the Conservative lead in 2019 was only 5%

[batman]

indeed, Labour's progress in recent Bromley elections has been much weaker in Mottingham than in wards in, primarily, the Bromley & Chislehurst constituency which are not going to be included with this territory. Chislehurst itself has never been a good area for Labour & it still has a look of prosperity which is greater than most of outer SE London.

[melthamhd94nn]

Nov 29, 2022 19:55:30 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Nov 29, 2022 18:59:44 GMT batman said:

Looking at past election results, though, it comes as some surprise to note that there was a time when Shooters Hill was a pretty safe Tory ward.

The pre-1978 Shooters Hill ward covered a quite different area, all south of Shooters Hill (the A207) and corresponds more to the current Eltham Nortfh. The wards of that vintage which covered the area now included in Shooters Hill ward were Academy, Slade and St Margaret's - all safe Labour wards except for in 1968

Slade was won by Lib/SDP in 1982 and by Lib Dem in 1986 and 1994. St Margarets was usually Conservative throughout.

[Pete Whitehead]

Nov 30, 2022 11:13:50 GMT melthamhd94nn said:

Nov 29, 2022 19:55:30 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

The pre-1978 Shooters Hill ward covered a quite different area, all south of Shooters Hill (the A207) and corresponds more to the current Eltham Nortfh. The wards of that vintage which covered the area now included in Shooters Hill ward were Academy, Slade and St Margaret's - all safe Labour wards except for in 1968

Slade was won by Lib/SDP in 1982 and by Lib Dem in 1986 and 1994. St Margarets was usually Conservative throughout.

I was talking about the pre-1978 wards because that was the time when the Conservative Shooters Hill ward which Barbaby mentioned existed. St Margaret's was, as I say, Labour at all elections except for 1968 and ceased to exist in 1978. The 1978-2002 wards which roughly correspond to the post-2002 Shooters Hill ward were Herbert, Shrewsbury and Slade. Shrewsbury was usually Conservative, Slade often Liberal/Lib Dem and Herbert safely Labour. At that time the safest Labour wards in Eltham were the council estate wards of Middle Park and Sherard (and in any case Shrewsbury and Slade were in the Woolwich seat before 1987).
The point was to draw the distinction between the 'Shooters Hill' which existed before 1978 and was safely Conservative and that which existed after 2002 which was safely Labour. The earlier version became largely the post-1978 wards of Deansfield, Eltham Park and Shrewsbury which were all Conservative for most or all of their existance.

[spinach]

The MSOSAs with the highest % White British population in Inner London (using pre-1965 County of London boundaries) are located in Eltham:

1. Eltham North - 70.1%
2. Eltham Park - 69.1%
3. New Eltham - 66.6%