Post by matureleft on May 3, 2020 20:05:42 GMT
Chichester
One of the oldest constituencies, having been established in 1295. Since the beginning of the 20th Century, with one lapse in 1923 when a Liberal was returned, it has provided a safe berth for a succession of Conservative MPs of varying stature. Among those who have represented the seat are Chris Chataway, a runner who ran with Roger Bannister to break the 4 minute mile and was a Heath minister, Anthony Nelson, a banker and Thatcher minister (but not a true believer, so much so that he joined Labour in 2001), and more recently Andrew Tyrie, cerebral and politely rebellious with an awkward streak (apparently nicknamed Andrew Tiresome by some Tories, but in my personal experience I can imagine that his cleverness may have been a problem...), He had an interest in issues that seldom troubled most Conservatives, extraordinary rendition being the most obvious. Slightly surprisingly, bearing in mind its utterly safe history, the seat has seemingly not had a Conservative drafted in with parliamentary career development in mind (although Chataway probably looked like that when selected for the 1969 by-election). The MP since 2017 has been Gillian Keegan.
Chichester being a very small city (the electorate of the 5 city wards was just under 21000 in 2019) the seat has in modern times encompassed a much wider area. At times this stretched along the coast to Bognor Regis but from 1974 it has spread northward instead. In 1983 it comprised all the wards of Chichester District Council including the major communities of Midhurst, Petworth and Selsey, the city itself and a large rural area at the western end of West Sussex. The notable growth community is Tangmere, the former RAF base, but Chichester is sprawling too, except to its north.
The boundaries from 2010 comprise the district excluding Petworth and rural wards to its north and south. It is now substantially oversized, with an electorate of over 85,000 at the 2019 election. The most obvious future change would be to exclude a further section of the northern end of the seat. Does this make much difference?
Well the city itself is not a Conservative stronghold and its local representation has been dominated by Lib Dems in many elections since the 1980s. The City (meaning Town) Council has but two Conservatives in its membership of 18, with the Lib Dems in a small majority and both a Green and Labour presence. The last district council elections in 2019 gave the Conservatives exactly half of the seats across the district with the Lib Dems a strong second. The city district councillors elected divided 3 Lib Dem, 2 Labour (the first elected in the city since at least 1973, and the first in the district since two individual successes in a Selsey ward in 1995 and 1999), 2 Conservative and 2 Green. A further pruning of the northern end of the seat would exclude some strongly Conservative wards. The district was rewarded in 2016 and the most natural boundary with close to the correct number, using the new wards, would make Midhurst the northernmost point of the constituency. Midhurst returned a popular local independent and a Lib Dem at the last local elections. The second-largest community, the geographically-isolated Selsey, returned a mixture of Local [Selsey] Alliance and Conservatives.
The district narrowly voted Leave but one would suspect that the Parliamentary seat voted narrowly Remain.
Nevertheless with the 2019 General Election delivering a Conservative vote share of just under 58 per cent (but a fall of over 2 per cent from 2017) there's a long way for any opponent to go. The Lib Dems retook second place then after Labour had surged to 22 per cent in 2017. The Labour vote has been historically quite resilient while the party has never been a realistic contender In the seat.
This is the kind of constituency that the Conservatives might struggle to hold in a by election in mildly unpopular times but shouldn't waver in a General Election. There are signs that the city has drifted away from them and, should the boundaries tighten toward the city and a single strong opponent emerge, they might struggle.
One of the oldest constituencies, having been established in 1295. Since the beginning of the 20th Century, with one lapse in 1923 when a Liberal was returned, it has provided a safe berth for a succession of Conservative MPs of varying stature. Among those who have represented the seat are Chris Chataway, a runner who ran with Roger Bannister to break the 4 minute mile and was a Heath minister, Anthony Nelson, a banker and Thatcher minister (but not a true believer, so much so that he joined Labour in 2001), and more recently Andrew Tyrie, cerebral and politely rebellious with an awkward streak (apparently nicknamed Andrew Tiresome by some Tories, but in my personal experience I can imagine that his cleverness may have been a problem...), He had an interest in issues that seldom troubled most Conservatives, extraordinary rendition being the most obvious. Slightly surprisingly, bearing in mind its utterly safe history, the seat has seemingly not had a Conservative drafted in with parliamentary career development in mind (although Chataway probably looked like that when selected for the 1969 by-election). The MP since 2017 has been Gillian Keegan.
Chichester being a very small city (the electorate of the 5 city wards was just under 21000 in 2019) the seat has in modern times encompassed a much wider area. At times this stretched along the coast to Bognor Regis but from 1974 it has spread northward instead. In 1983 it comprised all the wards of Chichester District Council including the major communities of Midhurst, Petworth and Selsey, the city itself and a large rural area at the western end of West Sussex. The notable growth community is Tangmere, the former RAF base, but Chichester is sprawling too, except to its north.
The boundaries from 2010 comprise the district excluding Petworth and rural wards to its north and south. It is now substantially oversized, with an electorate of over 85,000 at the 2019 election. The most obvious future change would be to exclude a further section of the northern end of the seat. Does this make much difference?
Well the city itself is not a Conservative stronghold and its local representation has been dominated by Lib Dems in many elections since the 1980s. The City (meaning Town) Council has but two Conservatives in its membership of 18, with the Lib Dems in a small majority and both a Green and Labour presence. The last district council elections in 2019 gave the Conservatives exactly half of the seats across the district with the Lib Dems a strong second. The city district councillors elected divided 3 Lib Dem, 2 Labour (the first elected in the city since at least 1973, and the first in the district since two individual successes in a Selsey ward in 1995 and 1999), 2 Conservative and 2 Green. A further pruning of the northern end of the seat would exclude some strongly Conservative wards. The district was rewarded in 2016 and the most natural boundary with close to the correct number, using the new wards, would make Midhurst the northernmost point of the constituency. Midhurst returned a popular local independent and a Lib Dem at the last local elections. The second-largest community, the geographically-isolated Selsey, returned a mixture of Local [Selsey] Alliance and Conservatives.
The district narrowly voted Leave but one would suspect that the Parliamentary seat voted narrowly Remain.
Nevertheless with the 2019 General Election delivering a Conservative vote share of just under 58 per cent (but a fall of over 2 per cent from 2017) there's a long way for any opponent to go. The Lib Dems retook second place then after Labour had surged to 22 per cent in 2017. The Labour vote has been historically quite resilient while the party has never been a realistic contender In the seat.
The city's cathedral dominates the landscape to the south and is at the heart of a complex of church properties. The church has influenced other aspects of the city – the fine Pallant House gallery was established through a collection of 20th Century British art assembled by a former Dean. The Chichester Festival Theatre has a regional reputation. The Fishbourne Roman palace lies to the west of Chichester and reflects the importance of the area in those times. Around the south of the constituency from Chichester to the coast and Selsey there are landmarks reflecting the draconian but often vain attempts to control smuggling in the area in the 18th Century. Goodwood (part of the substantial holdings of the Duke of Richmond) to the north of the city offers racing, an airfield and is base to Rolls-Royce cars. The South Downs National Park stretches across the seat and the areas around Chichester harbour are an Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty. Cowdray Park also lies in this attractive seat. The former teacher training college evolved in stages gaining University status in 2005. While a relatively small university with 5,500 students the presence of a university seldom bodes well for the modern Conservative Party. The city is base to the County Council, its District Council and there's a hospital as well, so a significant public sector workforce will also influence its voting behaviour.
2011 Census data for the district, slightly larger than the constituency, shows that it then had a 93 per cent White British population. 14.8 per cent lived in socially owned housing, with 2.1 per cent privately rented. 27.1% held higher qualifications. It's a relatively elderly constituency with 27 per cent being over 65 (18 per cent nationally) and relatively affluent with median weekly pay being above the South-East regional average and lying 409th in the constituency deprivation list with no segments being in the 10 per cent most deprived.
This is the kind of constituency that the Conservatives might struggle to hold in a by election in mildly unpopular times but shouldn't waver in a General Election. There are signs that the city has drifted away from them and, should the boundaries tighten toward the city and a single strong opponent emerge, they might struggle.
