Post by matureleft on May 3, 2020 20:05:42 GMT
Chichester
One of the oldest constituencies, having been established in 1295. Since the beginning of the 20th Century, with one lapse in 1923 when a Liberal was returned, it has provided a safe berth for a succession of Conservative MPs of varying stature. Among those who have represented the seat are Chris Chataway, a runner who ran with Roger Bannister to break the 4 minute mile and was a Heath minister, Anthony Nelson, a banker and Thatcher minister (but not a true believer, so much so that he joined Labour in 2001), and more recently Andrew Tyrie, cerebral and politely rebellious with an awkward streak (apparently nicknamed Andrew Tiresome by some Tories, but in my personal experience I can imagine that his cleverness may have been a problem...), He had an interest in issues that seldom troubled most Conservatives, extraordinary rendition being the most obvious. Slightly surprisingly, bearing in mind its utterly safe history, the seat has seemingly not had a Conservative drafted in with parliamentary career development in mind (although Chataway probably looked like that when selected for the 1969 by-election). The MP since 2017 has been Gillian Keegan. She has risen through the parliamentary ranks, becoming Education Secretary in Rishi Sunak’s cabinet.
Chichester being a very small city (the electorate of the 5 city wards was just under 21000 in 2019) the seat has in modern times encompassed a much wider area. At times this stretched along the coast to Bognor Regis but from 1974 it has spread northward instead. In 1983 it comprised all the wards of Chichester District Council including the major communities of Midhurst, Petworth and Selsey, the city itself and a large rural area at the western end of West Sussex. The notable growth community is Tangmere, the former RAF base, but Chichester is sprawling too, except to its north.
The boundaries from 2010 comprised the district excluding Petworth and rural wards to its north and south. It is substantially oversized, with an electorate of over 85,000 at the 2019 election. The most obvious future change would be to exclude a further section of the northern end of the seat. However the Boundary Commission’s initial proposals instead excluded the wards immediately south of the city, leaving Chichester itself lodged in the far south-eastern corner of the eponymous constituency. Some objections to this but more importantly the consequences of other amendments in West Sussex drew further proposals. These do exclude the northern, rural end of the seat even to the extent of splitting Goodwood ward that abuts the city. To compensate 2 wards from Arun District Council, Bersted and Pagham on the edge of Bognor Regis are added to the constituency. The effect is to produce a much smaller constituency with the little city near its centre.
Does this make much difference in electoral terms?
Well the city itself is not a Conservative stronghold and its local representation has been dominated by Lib Dems in many elections since the 1980s. The City (meaning Town) Council has but two Conservatives in its membership of 18, with the Lib Dems in a small majority and both a Green and Labour presence. The last district council elections in 2019 gave the Conservatives exactly half of the seats across the district with the Lib Dems a strong second. The city district councillors elected divided 3 Lib Dem, 2 Labour (the first elected in the city since at least 1973, and the first in the district since two individual successes in a Selsey ward in 1995 and 1999), 2 Conservative and 2 Green. The pruning of the northern end of the seat would exclude some strongly Conservative wards but also the ward of the last Lib Dem parliamentary candidate.
The second-largest community, the geographically-isolated Selsey, returned a mixture of Local [Selsey] Alliance and Conservatives.
Do the 2 Arun wards offer some reassurance to the Conservatives? Bersted comfortably elected Lib Dem councillors. Pagham elected locally-focused Independents against a full suite of party opponents but has normally been Conservative.
The district narrowly voted Leave but one would suspect that the current Parliamentary seat voted narrowly Remain.
Nevertheless with the 2019 General Election delivering a Conservative vote share of just under 58 per cent (but a fall of over 2 per cent from 2017) there's a long way for any opponent to go. The Lib Dems retook second place then after Labour had surged to 22 per cent in 2017. The Labour vote has been historically quite resilient while the party has never been a realistic contender In the seat.
Like many an affluent South-East constituency Chichester has had its share of planning pressures with the council having difficulty accommodating the new housing numbers required by the government and making slow progress with its local plan. That led to a period where the council was unable to resist developer applications effectively through their failure to comply. This has prompted some defections to independent from the Conservative group and some fairly strong localist campaigns. What this amounts to in terms of votes in a General Election is hard to predict but the issue is bound to be used by opponents.
This is the kind of constituency that the Conservatives might well struggle to hold in a by election on the current boundaries in mildly unpopular times. The strong representations from Keegan concerning the latest boundary proposals suggest some anxiety about the much smaller, less rural seat in even a general election. Local election results aren’t always a good indicator of prospects but currently loyal Conservative wards are relatively scarce within the new boundaries.
One of the oldest constituencies, having been established in 1295. Since the beginning of the 20th Century, with one lapse in 1923 when a Liberal was returned, it has provided a safe berth for a succession of Conservative MPs of varying stature. Among those who have represented the seat are Chris Chataway, a runner who ran with Roger Bannister to break the 4 minute mile and was a Heath minister, Anthony Nelson, a banker and Thatcher minister (but not a true believer, so much so that he joined Labour in 2001), and more recently Andrew Tyrie, cerebral and politely rebellious with an awkward streak (apparently nicknamed Andrew Tiresome by some Tories, but in my personal experience I can imagine that his cleverness may have been a problem...), He had an interest in issues that seldom troubled most Conservatives, extraordinary rendition being the most obvious. Slightly surprisingly, bearing in mind its utterly safe history, the seat has seemingly not had a Conservative drafted in with parliamentary career development in mind (although Chataway probably looked like that when selected for the 1969 by-election). The MP since 2017 has been Gillian Keegan. She has risen through the parliamentary ranks, becoming Education Secretary in Rishi Sunak’s cabinet.
Chichester being a very small city (the electorate of the 5 city wards was just under 21000 in 2019) the seat has in modern times encompassed a much wider area. At times this stretched along the coast to Bognor Regis but from 1974 it has spread northward instead. In 1983 it comprised all the wards of Chichester District Council including the major communities of Midhurst, Petworth and Selsey, the city itself and a large rural area at the western end of West Sussex. The notable growth community is Tangmere, the former RAF base, but Chichester is sprawling too, except to its north.
The boundaries from 2010 comprised the district excluding Petworth and rural wards to its north and south. It is substantially oversized, with an electorate of over 85,000 at the 2019 election. The most obvious future change would be to exclude a further section of the northern end of the seat. However the Boundary Commission’s initial proposals instead excluded the wards immediately south of the city, leaving Chichester itself lodged in the far south-eastern corner of the eponymous constituency. Some objections to this but more importantly the consequences of other amendments in West Sussex drew further proposals. These do exclude the northern, rural end of the seat even to the extent of splitting Goodwood ward that abuts the city. To compensate 2 wards from Arun District Council, Bersted and Pagham on the edge of Bognor Regis are added to the constituency. The effect is to produce a much smaller constituency with the little city near its centre.
Does this make much difference in electoral terms?
Well the city itself is not a Conservative stronghold and its local representation has been dominated by Lib Dems in many elections since the 1980s. The City (meaning Town) Council has but two Conservatives in its membership of 18, with the Lib Dems in a small majority and both a Green and Labour presence. The last district council elections in 2019 gave the Conservatives exactly half of the seats across the district with the Lib Dems a strong second. The city district councillors elected divided 3 Lib Dem, 2 Labour (the first elected in the city since at least 1973, and the first in the district since two individual successes in a Selsey ward in 1995 and 1999), 2 Conservative and 2 Green. The pruning of the northern end of the seat would exclude some strongly Conservative wards but also the ward of the last Lib Dem parliamentary candidate.
The second-largest community, the geographically-isolated Selsey, returned a mixture of Local [Selsey] Alliance and Conservatives.
Do the 2 Arun wards offer some reassurance to the Conservatives? Bersted comfortably elected Lib Dem councillors. Pagham elected locally-focused Independents against a full suite of party opponents but has normally been Conservative.
The district narrowly voted Leave but one would suspect that the current Parliamentary seat voted narrowly Remain.
Nevertheless with the 2019 General Election delivering a Conservative vote share of just under 58 per cent (but a fall of over 2 per cent from 2017) there's a long way for any opponent to go. The Lib Dems retook second place then after Labour had surged to 22 per cent in 2017. The Labour vote has been historically quite resilient while the party has never been a realistic contender In the seat.
The city's cathedral dominates the landscape to the south and is at the heart of a complex of church properties. The church has influenced other aspects of the city – the fine Pallant House gallery was established through a collection of 20th Century British art assembled by a former Dean. The Chichester Festival Theatre has a regional reputation. The Fishbourne Roman palace lies to the west of Chichester and reflects the importance of the area in those times. Around the south of the constituency from Chichester to the coast and Selsey there are landmarks reflecting the draconian but often vain attempts to control smuggling in the area in the 18th Century. Goodwood (part of the substantial holdings of the Duke of Richmond) to the north of the city offers racing, an airfield and is base to Rolls-Royce cars (now German owned). The South Downs National Park stretches across the seat and the areas around Chichester harbour are an Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty. A former teacher training college evolved in stages gaining University status in 2005. While a relatively small university with 5,500 students the presence of a university seldom bodes well for the modern Conservative Party. The city is base to the County Council, its District Council and there's a hospital as well, so a significant public sector workforce will also influence its voting behaviour.
2011 Census data for the district, now much larger than the proposed constituency, shows that it then had a 93 per cent White British population. 14.8 per cent lived in socially owned housing, 14.8 per cent privately rented. 27.1% held higher qualifications. It's been a relatively elderly constituency with 27 per cent being over 65 (18 per cent nationally) and relatively affluent with median weekly pay being above the South-East regional average and lying 409th in the constituency deprivation list with no segments being in the 10 per cent most deprived.
Like many an affluent South-East constituency Chichester has had its share of planning pressures with the council having difficulty accommodating the new housing numbers required by the government and making slow progress with its local plan. That led to a period where the council was unable to resist developer applications effectively through their failure to comply. This has prompted some defections to independent from the Conservative group and some fairly strong localist campaigns. What this amounts to in terms of votes in a General Election is hard to predict but the issue is bound to be used by opponents.
This is the kind of constituency that the Conservatives might well struggle to hold in a by election on the current boundaries in mildly unpopular times. The strong representations from Keegan concerning the latest boundary proposals suggest some anxiety about the much smaller, less rural seat in even a general election. Local election results aren’t always a good indicator of prospects but currently loyal Conservative wards are relatively scarce within the new boundaries.
