Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 40,460
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Post by Merseymike on May 22, 2020 13:23:31 GMT
If someone had told me just 5 years ago that by 2020 this seat would have a Labour MP while the Tories would have 10 out of 13 MPs in the "Black Country" I would have said that they should be sectioned. And, for all we know, seats gained and held in this way - as part of the great pro-European strategic vote, tenuous and unwilling but also very strong - could end up being lost even if Labour recovers massively elsewhere. All of which is a useful reminder that elections aren't actually censuses: the electorate does not affirm its 'identity', but rather chooses from the options presented to it at that given moment. True. But this seat has been won by Labour before. |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on May 22, 2020 13:41:23 GMT
There are a number of seats with a similar make-up which have seen similar shifts towards Labour. Students are one issue, but by no means the only one. I know, just saying it was part of the reason for the increased Labour vote in that one. My own seat is one with a significant increase in the Labour vote without students being a sizeable factor. |
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Post by Robert Waller on May 2, 2021 21:31:32 GMT
2011 Census
Age 65+ 15.0% 459/650
Owner-occupied 61.7% 453/650
Private rented 20.2% 119/650
Social rented 16.0% 322/650
White 87.3% 476/650
Black 0.8% 298/650
Asian 8.5% 142/650
Sikh 5.1% 18/650
Managerial & professional 38.1%
Routine & Semi-routine 21.0%
Degree level 36.9% 77/650
No qualifications 17.4% 556/650
Students 12.6% 92/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 62.0% 372/573
Private rented 21.3% 177/573
Social rented 16.7% 227/573
White 82.5%
Black 1.1%
Asian 11.2%
(South Asian 9.1%)
Mixed 3.2%
Other 1.9%
Managerial & professional 42.0% 74/573
Routine & Semi-routine 18.7% 459/573
Degree level 44.7% 65/573
No qualifications 13.6% 493/573
General Election 2019: Warwick and Leamington
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Matt Western 23,718 43.8 -2.9
Conservative Jack Rankin 22,929 42.3 -2.1
Liberal Democrats Louis Adam 4,995 9.2 +4.0
Green Jonathan Chilvers 1,536 2.8 +0.6
Brexit Party Tim Griffiths 807 1.5
Independent Bob Dhillon 153 0.3
SDP Xander Bennett 67 0.1
Lab Majority 789 1.5 -0.8
Turnout 54,205 71.0 -1.8
Labour hold
Swing 0.4 Lab to C
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Post by John Chanin on Dec 5, 2022 9:26:16 GMT
The seat is very slightly oversized, and Kenilworth & Southam is very slightly undersized. The Boundary Commission propose to remedy this by transferring the rural ward of Budbrooke to the south-west of the town to the latter seat. Budbrooke is a safe Conservative ward, and Labour’s position in this marginal seat will therefore be strengthened a little.
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