Post by greenchristian on May 3, 2020 18:33:26 GMT
The Warwick and Leamington constituency name dates back to 1885, when it included not just Leamington and Warwick but also Kenilworth and Stratford upon Avon. This version of the seat, which would have been more accurately named “South Warwickshire”, was represented by Anthony Eden (who served from 1923 to 1957). The seat lost Stratford in 1950 and Kenilworth in 1983. Since then there have been three different sets of boundaries, with the difference being which rural wards were included with the Leamington-Warwick conurbation.
The seat as it has been since 2010 consists of two major parts, and two smaller ones. As a whole the seat leans towards an educated middle-class demographic, which is one of the main reasons that Warwick District (taking in this seat, Kenilworth, and large parts of rural Warwickshire) was the only council area in the West Midlands region to vote remain, and that was largely due to this seat.
Around half the seat by population is Royal Leamington Spa – though locals usually drop the “Royal” and “Spa” (and often shorten it to just “Leam”). Leamington essentially came into being as a spa town in the 19th century (having previously been a small village). Whilst it no longer functions as a spa, the Pump Room Gardens remain. Queen Victoria granted the town the royal prefix in 1838, and there's a prominent statue of her outside the town hall. Geographically Leamington is divided North-South by the river Leam, with the Parade (essentially Leamington High Street) being an East-West boundary for the areas north of the river. The town does have an industrial base, even though it doesn't feel like an industrial town.
The town as a whole has tended to attract a bohemian demographic, the Leamington Peace Festival dates back to 1978, and the bohemian demographics are stronger in the north of the town, which was solidly Liberal Democrat at local level before the coalition, and has mostly reverted to type in recent years. The Lib Dems currently hold all three county council seats in the north, and six of the nine district council seats – having been close behind Labour for the others. This bohemian feel may be a factor in the way Leamington has become a major centre for the computer games industry, Leamington also has a substantial Asian population (9.15% as of the census), with a clear majority of them being Sikhs.
South Leamington contains some areas of high deprivation alongside a significant amount of student housing. Though the University of Warwick is actually in Coventry around a third of the student body live in Leamington. At local government level south Leamington has historically been Labour, although it has become a Labour-Green battleground since the first Green councillor was elected in 2013. The Greens currently hold one of the two county council seats and five of the six district council seats in the south (they missed out on the final seat by 10 votes), with the others held by Labour.
The second major part of the seat is the town of Warwick. Whilst the boundary between the two towns is virtually invisible they do have very distinct identities. Warwick is, of course, a very old town – having been continuously inhabited since the 6th century. It is home to Warwick Castle, which is one of the biggest tourist attractions in the West Midlands region, being less a standard castle and more a medieval experience. Warwick School claims to be the oldest boy's school in the country. The town is very middle class and well-educated, but lacks Leamington''s bohemian tendencies, and has rather less in the way of industry. At local government level, the town has tended to be solidly Conservative, with the occasional challenge from Labour. The Conservatives currently hold two of the three county council seats and nine of the ten district council seats in the town.
The first small part is the town of Whitnash, which dates back at least as far as the Domesday Book. Whitnash is a de-facto suburb of Leamington, lacking anything that could be called a centre of its own. The town merges seamlessly into south Leamington, though it is more up-market than much of the south Leamington area. Despite, or perhaps because of, this de facto suburb status Whitnash retains a strong local identity. At local government level it is almost entirely represented by Whitnash Residents' Association (the sole exception being one Independent on the town council).
The final part of the seat is Bishop's Tachbrook, a small village lying just to the south of Leamington. This is the only remaining part of the seat which is outside the conurbation. At local government level the area has been mostly safe Conservative. Labour were just eight votes short of taking the second of two seats at the 2019 local elections, but that may be partly an effect of the electoral system (Labour and the Liberal Democrats only fielded one candidate each).
Whilst smaller parties play a very large part in local politics here, at Westminster level it is very much a story of Labour and the Conservatives – Liberal Democrat and Green voters typically lend their votes to Labour or the Conservatives when it comes to Westminster. This was a safe seat for the Conservatives for most of the 20th Century – from when they comfortably took it from the Liberals in 1910 until they lost it in the 1997 landslide.
And here's the completely different local picture in local elections over the same period.
The seat as it has been since 2010 consists of two major parts, and two smaller ones. As a whole the seat leans towards an educated middle-class demographic, which is one of the main reasons that Warwick District (taking in this seat, Kenilworth, and large parts of rural Warwickshire) was the only council area in the West Midlands region to vote remain, and that was largely due to this seat.
Around half the seat by population is Royal Leamington Spa – though locals usually drop the “Royal” and “Spa” (and often shorten it to just “Leam”). Leamington essentially came into being as a spa town in the 19th century (having previously been a small village). Whilst it no longer functions as a spa, the Pump Room Gardens remain. Queen Victoria granted the town the royal prefix in 1838, and there's a prominent statue of her outside the town hall. Geographically Leamington is divided North-South by the river Leam, with the Parade (essentially Leamington High Street) being an East-West boundary for the areas north of the river. The town does have an industrial base, even though it doesn't feel like an industrial town.
The town as a whole has tended to attract a bohemian demographic, the Leamington Peace Festival dates back to 1978, and the bohemian demographics are stronger in the north of the town, which was solidly Liberal Democrat at local level before the coalition, and has mostly reverted to type in recent years. The Lib Dems currently hold all three county council seats in the north, and six of the nine district council seats – having been close behind Labour for the others. This bohemian feel may be a factor in the way Leamington has become a major centre for the computer games industry, Leamington also has a substantial Asian population (9.15% as of the census), with a clear majority of them being Sikhs.
South Leamington contains some areas of high deprivation alongside a significant amount of student housing. Though the University of Warwick is actually in Coventry around a third of the student body live in Leamington. At local government level south Leamington has historically been Labour, although it has become a Labour-Green battleground since the first Green councillor was elected in 2013. The Greens currently hold one of the two county council seats and five of the six district council seats in the south (they missed out on the final seat by 10 votes), with the others held by Labour.
The second major part of the seat is the town of Warwick. Whilst the boundary between the two towns is virtually invisible they do have very distinct identities. Warwick is, of course, a very old town – having been continuously inhabited since the 6th century. It is home to Warwick Castle, which is one of the biggest tourist attractions in the West Midlands region, being less a standard castle and more a medieval experience. Warwick School claims to be the oldest boy's school in the country. The town is very middle class and well-educated, but lacks Leamington''s bohemian tendencies, and has rather less in the way of industry. At local government level, the town has tended to be solidly Conservative, with the occasional challenge from Labour. The Conservatives currently hold two of the three county council seats and nine of the ten district council seats in the town.
The first small part is the town of Whitnash, which dates back at least as far as the Domesday Book. Whitnash is a de-facto suburb of Leamington, lacking anything that could be called a centre of its own. The town merges seamlessly into south Leamington, though it is more up-market than much of the south Leamington area. Despite, or perhaps because of, this de facto suburb status Whitnash retains a strong local identity. At local government level it is almost entirely represented by Whitnash Residents' Association (the sole exception being one Independent on the town council).
The final part of the seat is Bishop's Tachbrook, a small village lying just to the south of Leamington. This is the only remaining part of the seat which is outside the conurbation. At local government level the area has been mostly safe Conservative. Labour were just eight votes short of taking the second of two seats at the 2019 local elections, but that may be partly an effect of the electoral system (Labour and the Liberal Democrats only fielded one candidate each).
Whilst smaller parties play a very large part in local politics here, at Westminster level it is very much a story of Labour and the Conservatives – Liberal Democrat and Green voters typically lend their votes to Labour or the Conservatives when it comes to Westminster. This was a safe seat for the Conservatives for most of the 20th Century – from when they comfortably took it from the Liberals in 1910 until they lost it in the 1997 landslide.
In the 21st Century, the seat has swung a fair bit. Labour comfortably held in 2001, narrowly held in 2005, and then lost the seat in 2010, despite boundary changes that removed almost all of the rural parts of the seat. In 2015 Labour slipped back further despite running a big ground campaign. The narrow Labour gain in 2017 was one of the bigger surprises of the night, and they narrowly held it again in 2019.
Results on the current boundaries:
| Party | 2015 | 2017 | 2019 | |||
| Votes | Percentage | Percentage | Votes | Percentage | Votes | |
| Labour | 17,643 | 34.9% | 25,337 | 46.7% | 23,718 | 43.8% |
| Conservatives | 24,249 | 47.9% | 24,021 | 44.4% | 22,929 | 42.3% |
| Liberal Democrats | 2,512 | 5.0% | 2,810 | 5.2% | 4,995 | 9.2% |
| Green Party | 1,994 | 3.9% | 1,198 | 2.2% | 1,536 | 2.8% |
| UKIP/Brexit Party | 4,183 | 8.3% | 799 | 1.5% | 807 | 1.5% |
| Independent | 153 | 0.3% | ||||
| DP | 67 | 0.1% | ||||
| Turnout | 50,770 | 70.7% | 54,160 | 72.8% | 54,205 | 71% |
And here's the completely different local picture in local elections over the same period.
| Party | 2015 District Council | 2017 County Council | 2019 District Council | ||||||||||
| Top Vote | % | Average vote | % | Seats | Votes | % | Seats | Top vote | % | Average vote | % | Seats | |
| Labour | 13,363 | 27.8% | 12,362 | 27.6% | 9 | 7,844 | 27.3% | 2 | 8,085 | 27.4% | 7,705 | 28.0% | 5 |
| Liberal Democrats | 7,430 | 15.4% | 6,801 | 15.2% | 2 | 6,005 | 20.9% | 3 | 6647 | 22.5% | 6,047 | 22.0% | 6 |
| Conservative | 17,035 | 35.3% | 16,018 | 35.7% | 15 | 9,456 | 32.9% | 3 | 6,364 | 21.5% | 6,001 | 21.8% | 11 |
| Green Party | 6,741 | 14.0% | 6,160 | 13.7% | 1 | 3,437 | 12.0% | 1 | 6,048 | 20.5% | 5,437 | 19.8% | 5 |
| Whitnash Residents' Association | 1,941 | 4.0% | 1,813 | 4.0% | 3 | 1,151 | 4.0% | 1 | 1,487 | 5.0% | 1374 | 5.0% | 3 |
| UKIP | 985 | 2.0% | 985 | 2.2% | 0 | 517 | 1.8% | 0 | 913 | 3.1% | 913 | 3.3% | 0 |
| Independent | 736 | 1.5% | 701 | 1.6% | 0 | 323 | 1.1% | 0 | - | - | - | - | - |
Note: There are no figures for seat changes, since all three elections were fought on revised boundaries, making the figures not directly comparable. The county council results include the Budbrooke and Bishop's Tachbrook Division, part of which is outside the constituency.
And here is a map of the most recent district council election results in the constituency:
