Post by andrewp on May 3, 2020 12:34:09 GMT
This seat covers the area immediately to the East of the County town of Devon, Exeter. Until the 2010 boundary changes, it reached as far as the Dorset border, but in that boundary change it lost its eastern end around Seaton to Tiverton and Honiton and in exchange gained 2 wards from Exeter, Topsham and St Loyes. This didn’t affect the political balance here but probably cost the Conservatives a gain in Exeter.
This is generally an affluent seat of rolling countryside rolling down to the sea. The coastline in this constituency is a series of steep red stone cliffs giving way to bays, thus making this a particularly challenging section of the South West Coastal path with several steep ascents and descents.
Aside from the Exeter suburbs included, the 3 main towns in this seat are from West to East the coastal towns of Exmouth, Budleigh Salterton and Sidmouth
Exmouth, which sits on the corner of the Exe Estuary and the Channel is the largest and least genteel of the 3. Unlike the other 2 it has industry, and a slightly down at heel town centre. It has a population of 34000 and is a popular commuting base into Exeter, being only 15 minutes away on the train. Exmouth is usually the least Conservative and most Lib Dem part of the constituency. It is younger, has some industry, and some council estates. It has a splendid 2 and a half mile promenade and a picturesque cricket ground in the sand dunes at the Maer. The best part of the town are the expensive flats set on a ridge above the Maer overlooking the channel.
The other 2 towns, Budleigh Salterton and Sidmouth are much more genteel and have pebbly rather than sandy beaches. These are elderly towns full of bowling greens and parks. Sidmouth has a population of 13000 and Budleigh 7000. The 2018 estimate was that 43% of people in Sidmouth are over 65 and 45% in Budleigh Salterton. These 2 towns are normally very Conservative
The 2 wards from Exeter that were included in 2010 are different bedfellows. Topsham is a quaint town on the River Exe, which really fits very well with East Devon. Topsham is a mixture of commuters to Exeter and retirees and is very Conservative, for a spell in the 1990s supplying the only Conservatives to Exeter City Council. The other ward is a bit different, St Loyes is mainly rapidly expanding new housing estates on the edge of Exeter. This ward is also won by the Conservatives currently.
So far, so good for the Conservatives. Until the last few elections, this would be categorised as a safeish Conservative seat with a significant Lib Dem minority. In 1997 veteran Honiton MP Sir Peter Emery followed the majority of his constituents here and won by 7500. Sir Peter retired in 2001 and was succeeded by old Etonian Hugo Swire. Between 2001-2010 this was a seat of little swing with Swire’s majority staying at about the 8-9,000 mark. Swire was never that popular here, with a reputation of being a bit lazy and from London. The laziness of Sir Hugo and a complacent Conservative run council has led to an Independent movement gaining serious traction here. In 2015, Claire Wright, a PR officer in the NHS stood and gathered a very creditable 13000 votes and 2nd place. Wright’s politics are very much of the centre left, but she has gained some momentum as a very hard working activist against an unpopular local council. In 2013, she was elected to the County Council, getting 74% of the vote in the Ottery St Mary rural division, and she was re elected in 2017 with 75%. In the 2017 general election, she built further, amassing 21000 votes and cutting Sir Hugo’s majority to 8,000. Its fair to say that a lot of her votes come from Lib Dems, who themselves got a paltry 2.4%. In the 2019, local elections, Independents, inspired by Wright, gained control of the district council from the Conservatives. Like some other areas of the country this is an area where only one of the three main political parties could ever win, so when that party is unpopular, voters have turned to Independents. In 2019, Hugo Swire retired, which probably helped arrest some of Wright’s momentum. New Conservative candidate was Simon Jupp, a former radio presenter and SPAD. Early on election night at least one model predicted a Claire Wright gain, but despite her clocking up 26000 votes and 40%, Jupp won by 6708. Wright has run 3 times now, and asked whether she would stand again, she said she’s not sure. Jupp will rest easier if she doesn’t.
This is generally an affluent seat of rolling countryside rolling down to the sea. The coastline in this constituency is a series of steep red stone cliffs giving way to bays, thus making this a particularly challenging section of the South West Coastal path with several steep ascents and descents.
Aside from the Exeter suburbs included, the 3 main towns in this seat are from West to East the coastal towns of Exmouth, Budleigh Salterton and Sidmouth
Exmouth, which sits on the corner of the Exe Estuary and the Channel is the largest and least genteel of the 3. Unlike the other 2 it has industry, and a slightly down at heel town centre. It has a population of 34000 and is a popular commuting base into Exeter, being only 15 minutes away on the train. Exmouth is usually the least Conservative and most Lib Dem part of the constituency. It is younger, has some industry, and some council estates. It has a splendid 2 and a half mile promenade and a picturesque cricket ground in the sand dunes at the Maer. The best part of the town are the expensive flats set on a ridge above the Maer overlooking the channel.
The other 2 towns, Budleigh Salterton and Sidmouth are much more genteel and have pebbly rather than sandy beaches. These are elderly towns full of bowling greens and parks. Sidmouth has a population of 13000 and Budleigh 7000. The 2018 estimate was that 43% of people in Sidmouth are over 65 and 45% in Budleigh Salterton. These 2 towns are normally very Conservative
The 2 wards from Exeter that were included in 2010 are different bedfellows. Topsham is a quaint town on the River Exe, which really fits very well with East Devon. Topsham is a mixture of commuters to Exeter and retirees and is very Conservative, for a spell in the 1990s supplying the only Conservatives to Exeter City Council. The other ward is a bit different, St Loyes is mainly rapidly expanding new housing estates on the edge of Exeter. This ward is also won by the Conservatives currently.
So far, so good for the Conservatives. Until the last few elections, this would be categorised as a safeish Conservative seat with a significant Lib Dem minority. In 1997 veteran Honiton MP Sir Peter Emery followed the majority of his constituents here and won by 7500. Sir Peter retired in 2001 and was succeeded by old Etonian Hugo Swire. Between 2001-2010 this was a seat of little swing with Swire’s majority staying at about the 8-9,000 mark. Swire was never that popular here, with a reputation of being a bit lazy and from London. The laziness of Sir Hugo and a complacent Conservative run council has led to an Independent movement gaining serious traction here. In 2015, Claire Wright, a PR officer in the NHS stood and gathered a very creditable 13000 votes and 2nd place. Wright’s politics are very much of the centre left, but she has gained some momentum as a very hard working activist against an unpopular local council. In 2013, she was elected to the County Council, getting 74% of the vote in the Ottery St Mary rural division, and she was re elected in 2017 with 75%. In the 2017 general election, she built further, amassing 21000 votes and cutting Sir Hugo’s majority to 8,000. Its fair to say that a lot of her votes come from Lib Dems, who themselves got a paltry 2.4%. In the 2019, local elections, Independents, inspired by Wright, gained control of the district council from the Conservatives. Like some other areas of the country this is an area where only one of the three main political parties could ever win, so when that party is unpopular, voters have turned to Independents. In 2019, Hugo Swire retired, which probably helped arrest some of Wright’s momentum. New Conservative candidate was Simon Jupp, a former radio presenter and SPAD. Early on election night at least one model predicted a Claire Wright gain, but despite her clocking up 26000 votes and 40%, Jupp won by 6708. Wright has run 3 times now, and asked whether she would stand again, she said she’s not sure. Jupp will rest easier if she doesn’t.
