Post by John Chanin on May 3, 2020 9:55:03 GMT
Lewes is an important old mediaeval town with a castle and priory, and a fine old high street. It sits at a strategic site at the foot of the South Downs where it is cut by the river Ouse - and occasionally flooded by it. It is most famous in modern times for its riotous bonfire night celebrations with their ceremonial burning of effigies of the pope, and these days anyone else they take a dislike to. Socially and politically it is an extension of Brighton - well-educated, middle-class, and with the Greens having taken over representation on Lewes District Council from the Liberal Democrats who long dominated, while the Conservatives get a derisory vote. There is a significant amount of social housing here too, and as the county town of East Sussex there are a lot of public sector workers. However Lewes is not a large town, and accounts for less than a fifth of voters, and is unrepresentative of the rest of the constituency.
There are three other urban settlements in the constituency. The largest is Seaford, sitting on the coast between the marshy estuary of the Ouse and Cuckmere Haven. This is a poor man’s Eastbourne, its neighbour to the east - without the fine architecture and facilities of that town. It is a low-key seaside resort, and shares Eastbourne’s generally elderly population, and also Eastbourne’s political tendencies, being normally Conservative with a strong Liberal Democrat challenge. The town is probably the most boring and undistinguished place along the whole south coast, but no doubt suits the people who choose to live there, overwhelmingly owner-occupiers. Like most coastal towns it is more down market inland, with a lower proportion of managerial workers, and degree holders. On the opposite side of the Ouse estuary is Newhaven, a very different place. This is an old fishing port, from which ferries run to Dieppe in France, and has some industry, as well as being a dormitory for Brighton. There is less owner-occupation here, a much higher proportion of routine workers, and a much lower proportion of degree holders. Politically it is the sort of place that you would expect to have Labour councillors, or at least a Labour challenge, but in the context of Lewes the town is safely Liberal Democrat. Of similar size to Newhaven is Polegate. This isn’t in Lewes District, and it isn’t a separate town. It is a suburb of Eastbourne, outwith the borough boundaries, and sits uneasily in Wealden District for local government purposes, and in Lewes for parliamentary purposes. It was added to this seat in 1997 from the oversized Eastbourne seat, in exchange for the Peacehaven wards of Lewes District which were added to the undersized Brighton Kemptown seat. It is not a rich suburb - managerial workers are lower than everywhere else in the seat except Newhaven - but it is solidly owner-occupied and normally Conservative. At a local level in recent years representation though has been dominated by a family of Chinese descent standing as independents.
The remaining third of the seat consists of villages extending over a large area of the South Downs, and north into the Weald. This is very attractive countryside, including the large village of Alfriston sitting in the valley of the Cuckmere, the village of Glyndebourne east of Lewes with its famous music festival, and the highest point in the South Downs at Ditchling Beacon. There is an old racecourse up on the Downs, and just over the boundary with Brighton sits Sussex University, and the new AMEX stadium of Brighton FC. The area is also associated with the Bloomsbury Group, with Vanessa Bell’s country house in the village of Firle, south of Lewes. Politically the villages surrounding Lewes are not as Conservative as elsewhere, and generally vote Liberal Democrat alongside the town, and Green influence has also spread out more recently into the countryside. The northern villages up on the Weald are however largely safe Conservative.
These political tendencies, pitting Liberal Democrat Lewes and Newhaven against the Conservative villages, with Seaford contested, make for a highly marginal seat. The seat was won by Norman Baker for the Liberal Democrats in 1997, and he held the seat with increasingly comfortable majorities until disaster overtook the Liberals nationally in 2015. However their vote has not faded away here in the same way as it has in other parts of the country, and this is still very much a marginal seat, and one of the few where the Liberal Democrats could potentially win. The MP here since 2015 is Maria Caulfield, a former nurse and member of the European Research Group.
The Boundary Commission have made significant changes here. The 5 rural wards in the north of Lewes district amounting to 12,000 predominantly Conservative voters, are to be moved to a new cross-county seat of East Grinstead & Uckfield. In exchange the seat gains the Eastbourne suburbs of Willingdon & Stone Cross, with a very similar electorate. At a local level Willingdon is represented by independents, but at national level probably votes very similarly to the rural wards moved out, and should not impede Liberal Democrat attempts to regain this seat.
Census data: owner-occupied 74% (108/573 in England & Wales), private rented 14% (306th), social rented 11% (479th).
:White 97%, Black 0%, South Asian 1%, Mixed 1%, Other 1%
: Managerial & professional 40% (153rd), Routine & Semi-routine 24% (435th)
:Degree level 31%(135th), Minimal qualifications 34%(352nd)
: Students 2.6% (417th), Over 65: 24% (17th)
There are three other urban settlements in the constituency. The largest is Seaford, sitting on the coast between the marshy estuary of the Ouse and Cuckmere Haven. This is a poor man’s Eastbourne, its neighbour to the east - without the fine architecture and facilities of that town. It is a low-key seaside resort, and shares Eastbourne’s generally elderly population, and also Eastbourne’s political tendencies, being normally Conservative with a strong Liberal Democrat challenge. The town is probably the most boring and undistinguished place along the whole south coast, but no doubt suits the people who choose to live there, overwhelmingly owner-occupiers. Like most coastal towns it is more down market inland, with a lower proportion of managerial workers, and degree holders. On the opposite side of the Ouse estuary is Newhaven, a very different place. This is an old fishing port, from which ferries run to Dieppe in France, and has some industry, as well as being a dormitory for Brighton. There is less owner-occupation here, a much higher proportion of routine workers, and a much lower proportion of degree holders. Politically it is the sort of place that you would expect to have Labour councillors, or at least a Labour challenge, but in the context of Lewes the town is safely Liberal Democrat. Of similar size to Newhaven is Polegate. This isn’t in Lewes District, and it isn’t a separate town. It is a suburb of Eastbourne, outwith the borough boundaries, and sits uneasily in Wealden District for local government purposes, and in Lewes for parliamentary purposes. It was added to this seat in 1997 from the oversized Eastbourne seat, in exchange for the Peacehaven wards of Lewes District which were added to the undersized Brighton Kemptown seat. It is not a rich suburb - managerial workers are lower than everywhere else in the seat except Newhaven - but it is solidly owner-occupied and normally Conservative. At a local level in recent years representation though has been dominated by a family of Chinese descent standing as independents.
The remaining third of the seat consists of villages extending over a large area of the South Downs, and north into the Weald. This is very attractive countryside, including the large village of Alfriston sitting in the valley of the Cuckmere, the village of Glyndebourne east of Lewes with its famous music festival, and the highest point in the South Downs at Ditchling Beacon. There is an old racecourse up on the Downs, and just over the boundary with Brighton sits Sussex University, and the new AMEX stadium of Brighton FC. The area is also associated with the Bloomsbury Group, with Vanessa Bell’s country house in the village of Firle, south of Lewes. Politically the villages surrounding Lewes are not as Conservative as elsewhere, and generally vote Liberal Democrat alongside the town, and Green influence has also spread out more recently into the countryside. The northern villages up on the Weald are however largely safe Conservative.
These political tendencies, pitting Liberal Democrat Lewes and Newhaven against the Conservative villages, with Seaford contested, make for a highly marginal seat. The seat was won by Norman Baker for the Liberal Democrats in 1997, and he held the seat with increasingly comfortable majorities until disaster overtook the Liberals nationally in 2015. However their vote has not faded away here in the same way as it has in other parts of the country, and this is still very much a marginal seat, and one of the few where the Liberal Democrats could potentially win. The MP here since 2015 is Maria Caulfield, a former nurse and member of the European Research Group.
The Boundary Commission have made significant changes here. The 5 rural wards in the north of Lewes district amounting to 12,000 predominantly Conservative voters, are to be moved to a new cross-county seat of East Grinstead & Uckfield. In exchange the seat gains the Eastbourne suburbs of Willingdon & Stone Cross, with a very similar electorate. At a local level Willingdon is represented by independents, but at national level probably votes very similarly to the rural wards moved out, and should not impede Liberal Democrat attempts to regain this seat.
Census data: owner-occupied 74% (108/573 in England & Wales), private rented 14% (306th), social rented 11% (479th).
:White 97%, Black 0%, South Asian 1%, Mixed 1%, Other 1%
: Managerial & professional 40% (153rd), Routine & Semi-routine 24% (435th)
:Degree level 31%(135th), Minimal qualifications 34%(352nd)
: Students 2.6% (417th), Over 65: 24% (17th)
2010 | % | 2015 | % | 2017 | % | 2019 | % | |
Conservative | 18,401 | 36.7% | 19,206 | 38.0% | 26,820 | 49.5% | 26,268 | 47.9% |
Liberal Democrat | 26,048 | 52.0% | 18,123 | 35.9% | 21,312 | 39.3% | 23,811 | 43.4% |
Labour | 2,508 | 5.0% | 5,000 | 9.9% | 6,060 | 11.2% | 3,206 | 5.8% |
UKIP | 1,728 | 3.4% | 5,427 | 10.7% | ||||
Green | 729 | 1.5% | 2,784 | 5.5% | 1,453 | 2.6% | ||
Others | 674 | 1.4% | 113 | 0.2% | ||||
Majority | -7,647 | -15.3% | 1,083 | 2.1% | 5,508 | 10.2% | 2,457 | 4.5% |
Probably the best beer obtainable in any important English football ground.
