Post by bsjmcr on May 2, 2020 16:42:14 GMT
I'm surprised it hasn't been done already, so here goes - apologies if I may have inadvertently broken any rules, I'm new to this!
Sir Robert Peel may be forever associated with the Tamworth Manifesto, but it is Bury where he was born and raised, and so he is arguably Bury's most famous son. There is a pub named after him and a statue in the town centre, and up in Ramsbottom the Peel Monument which looks over the borough and beyond. One would think, therefore, that through these links this is a Tory bastion, but in fact it is the most marginal seat in England with the Conservatives leading by just 105 votes.
As always with both of the Bury seats, it is a bit of a misnomer - the entire town of Bury is in the North seat as it covers the northern half of the entire borough. Bury itself is forever associated with Black Pudding, and its town centre is home to a proudly-named 'World Famous' Market. There is also the Fusiliers Museum and the heritage East Lancashire Railway for any Flying Scotsman enthusiasts, for more conventional transport, Bury is also the terminus of the original Metrolink Line to Altrincham. The arts/theatre venue The Met is based here at the Victorian-era Derby Hall, a notable performance there was one of the last concerts by the band Joy Division in 1980 where riots occurred. There are also two large Sixth Form colleges that serve students from across the borough and beyond, plus the private fee-paying Grammar School. There are no free grammar schools across Bury, but the borough's better comprehensives are to be found in this constituency. Sadly the FA-cup winning (back in 1900) local football team based at Gigg Lane is no more, despite the best efforts of local elected representatives and the community. Nonetheless, Bury is generally regarded as remaining relatively affluent when the textile industry of Manchester declined, due to much of the industry in Bury being based on paper making which continued for some time after. The town centre ward 'East' and a number of the neighbouring ones are reliably Labour - there is sporadic council housing throughout, often for older people, and some rows of terraced houses. Most of the ethnic minority population of Bury North is also concentrated in East, though as a whole it is not as sizeable as that of neighbouring Bolton, Rochdale or Oldham. One exception is the 'Church' ward west of the town centre which is highly affluent, white and slightly older in age, and so safely conservative, while Elton to the northwest is suburban and marginal. The River Irwell flows through the area, through the towns and powered many of the mills that once stood. Some evidence of this has been preserved at Burrs Country Park, where a cotton mill once was.
Leave the town centre and it becomes more suburban and even rural with swathes of green belt land surrounding the next town, Tottington, which is safely conservative, as are, going further north, small villages such as Greenmount and Summerseat, and finally Ramsbottom at the top of the borough. Ramsbottom was generally a Conservative heartland but is more marginal in recent times, a few years ago both main parties were tied and had to draw straws (Labour winning, taking the council) and recently Labour have been comfortably gaining council seats there. It is a very pleasant, comfortable market town surrounded by green space and the hills of the West Pennines, permanent fixtures on the landscape being the aforementioned Peel Tower on Holcombe Hill, and in the distance the many wind turbines of nearby Scout Moor - the second largest onshore wind farm. The town is now increasingly attractive for commuting despite being isolated from the tram/train network (save for the ELR!), but the M66 motorway lies close by, taking you to Manchester in little over 30 minutes. It could be that Ramsbottom is attracting a younger family type of commuting demographic, possibly more of a public sector type, which may be leading to this shift away from the Tories.
The marginal status perhaps is representative of the seat as a whole, with few extremes of deprivation or affluence, an urban centre surrounded by semi-rural areas, and a Brexit vote close to the national average at around 53-54% for Leave. The proportion of graduates and professionals is slightly higher than the national average. This is not a Red Wall area, more middle-England with a northern feel. The area was first ably represented by local (Bury Grammar and Oxford educated) Alistair Burt from 1983-1997 where even he couldn't survive the landslide and moved to Bedfordshire until standing down in 2019, but his heart appears to remain in Bury, as he often refers back to it. Another BGS alumnus David Chaytor of Labour took over, having lost twice in Calder Valley, serving until 2010 when he stood down after being implicated in the Expenses Scandal, when David Nuttall gained it for the Conservatives having failed to do so in 2005. His majority was slashed 5 years later into 3 figures by Labour's James Frith who finished the job in 2017. He may not have had a local accent but after graduating from MMU had settled in Bury for several years before being elected and was a local councillor for Elton. As MP, a highly energetic campaigner who fought hard for two years, including appearing on national TV in the wake of the Bury FC affair, he lost after recounts last year to another James - Daly, of the Conservatives, a local councillor for the Church ward. The marginality of the result is due in no small part to Frith's assiduousness as local MP, when other Labour 'red wall' seats with higher majorities going into the election, were gained by Conservatives by larger majorities than this one. Most of the time North was always the more conservative of the two Bury seats, perhaps owing to its more rural nature, but it is now South that is safer, just about, with 402 votes. Most recently, Keir Starmer chose Bury as his 'first stop' on his 'Call Keir' campaign, speaking to voters online. Labour must win across Bury to have any chance of forming the next government, and it would be surprising if James Frith does not stand again let alone regain it.
Sir Robert Peel may be forever associated with the Tamworth Manifesto, but it is Bury where he was born and raised, and so he is arguably Bury's most famous son. There is a pub named after him and a statue in the town centre, and up in Ramsbottom the Peel Monument which looks over the borough and beyond. One would think, therefore, that through these links this is a Tory bastion, but in fact it is the most marginal seat in England with the Conservatives leading by just 105 votes.
As always with both of the Bury seats, it is a bit of a misnomer - the entire town of Bury is in the North seat as it covers the northern half of the entire borough. Bury itself is forever associated with Black Pudding, and its town centre is home to a proudly-named 'World Famous' Market. There is also the Fusiliers Museum and the heritage East Lancashire Railway for any Flying Scotsman enthusiasts, for more conventional transport, Bury is also the terminus of the original Metrolink Line to Altrincham. The arts/theatre venue The Met is based here at the Victorian-era Derby Hall, a notable performance there was one of the last concerts by the band Joy Division in 1980 where riots occurred. There are also two large Sixth Form colleges that serve students from across the borough and beyond, plus the private fee-paying Grammar School. There are no free grammar schools across Bury, but the borough's better comprehensives are to be found in this constituency. Sadly the FA-cup winning (back in 1900) local football team based at Gigg Lane is no more, despite the best efforts of local elected representatives and the community. Nonetheless, Bury is generally regarded as remaining relatively affluent when the textile industry of Manchester declined, due to much of the industry in Bury being based on paper making which continued for some time after. The town centre ward 'East' and a number of the neighbouring ones are reliably Labour - there is sporadic council housing throughout, often for older people, and some rows of terraced houses. Most of the ethnic minority population of Bury North is also concentrated in East, though as a whole it is not as sizeable as that of neighbouring Bolton, Rochdale or Oldham. One exception is the 'Church' ward west of the town centre which is highly affluent, white and slightly older in age, and so safely conservative, while Elton to the northwest is suburban and marginal. The River Irwell flows through the area, through the towns and powered many of the mills that once stood. Some evidence of this has been preserved at Burrs Country Park, where a cotton mill once was.
Leave the town centre and it becomes more suburban and even rural with swathes of green belt land surrounding the next town, Tottington, which is safely conservative, as are, going further north, small villages such as Greenmount and Summerseat, and finally Ramsbottom at the top of the borough. Ramsbottom was generally a Conservative heartland but is more marginal in recent times, a few years ago both main parties were tied and had to draw straws (Labour winning, taking the council) and recently Labour have been comfortably gaining council seats there. It is a very pleasant, comfortable market town surrounded by green space and the hills of the West Pennines, permanent fixtures on the landscape being the aforementioned Peel Tower on Holcombe Hill, and in the distance the many wind turbines of nearby Scout Moor - the second largest onshore wind farm. The town is now increasingly attractive for commuting despite being isolated from the tram/train network (save for the ELR!), but the M66 motorway lies close by, taking you to Manchester in little over 30 minutes. It could be that Ramsbottom is attracting a younger family type of commuting demographic, possibly more of a public sector type, which may be leading to this shift away from the Tories.
The marginal status perhaps is representative of the seat as a whole, with few extremes of deprivation or affluence, an urban centre surrounded by semi-rural areas, and a Brexit vote close to the national average at around 53-54% for Leave. The proportion of graduates and professionals is slightly higher than the national average. This is not a Red Wall area, more middle-England with a northern feel. The area was first ably represented by local (Bury Grammar and Oxford educated) Alistair Burt from 1983-1997 where even he couldn't survive the landslide and moved to Bedfordshire until standing down in 2019, but his heart appears to remain in Bury, as he often refers back to it. Another BGS alumnus David Chaytor of Labour took over, having lost twice in Calder Valley, serving until 2010 when he stood down after being implicated in the Expenses Scandal, when David Nuttall gained it for the Conservatives having failed to do so in 2005. His majority was slashed 5 years later into 3 figures by Labour's James Frith who finished the job in 2017. He may not have had a local accent but after graduating from MMU had settled in Bury for several years before being elected and was a local councillor for Elton. As MP, a highly energetic campaigner who fought hard for two years, including appearing on national TV in the wake of the Bury FC affair, he lost after recounts last year to another James - Daly, of the Conservatives, a local councillor for the Church ward. The marginality of the result is due in no small part to Frith's assiduousness as local MP, when other Labour 'red wall' seats with higher majorities going into the election, were gained by Conservatives by larger majorities than this one. Most of the time North was always the more conservative of the two Bury seats, perhaps owing to its more rural nature, but it is now South that is safer, just about, with 402 votes. Most recently, Keir Starmer chose Bury as his 'first stop' on his 'Call Keir' campaign, speaking to voters online. Labour must win across Bury to have any chance of forming the next government, and it would be surprising if James Frith does not stand again let alone regain it.
