Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 30, 2020 22:07:45 GMT
When Gareth Thomas was growing up in Hatch End in the 1970s he may have dreamt of one day becoming the MP for his local seat, Harrow West, but must never have thought it likely that it would happen, let alone that he would enjoy a long tenure in what has become a safe Labour seat. That he has done so is due initially to the extreme circumstances of the 1997 Labour landslide, continued demographic and political change since then and crucially a drastic and very favourable boundary change in 2010.
The Labour gain of Harrow West in 1997 was one of the most shocking results of that extraordinary election. Labour had been in a distant third place only ten years previously and the 1992 majority in this unchanged seat was nearly 18,000 – a swing of over 16% was required to win but in the event a swing of over 17% was achieved. Harrow West had been a very safe Conservative seat since its creation, even returning a majority of nearly 10,000 in the inaugural contest in 1945. It consisted mostly of a swathe of middle-class inter-war suburbia, noticeably more upmarket than its neighbour to the East. The winning margin was only narrow in 1997 but as in so much of London the seat swung heavily to Labour again in 2001, before swinging back strongly again in 2005 (again in line with the regional pattern).
The constituency would have been ripe for the taking in 2010, as its eastern neighbour was, but the boundary commission intervened decisively to save Labour here. Over 20,000 voters in the north of the constituency were removed, in the neighbourhoods of Pinner and Hatch End. These very affluent and middle-class suburbs were always the Tory strongholds in Harrow West and their removal alone was enough to leave the rump of Harrow West as strongly Labour leaning. But their loss required some compensation, and this came in the form of the Greenhill and Marlborough wards from Harrow East which boosted Labour further. This constituency now bore more resemblance to the old Harrow Central seat than to the old Harrow West. Nevertheless, that was a consistently (if not overwhelmingly) Conservative seat during its existence from 1950 to 1983 and even on these boundaries this would not have been a Labour seat prior to 1997.
The Conservatives may still have entertained some hopes here and were moderately competitive in 2010 and 2015 before another huge swing to Labour in 2017 put them ahead by a five-figure margin. Things settled down a little in 2019 but this is now clearly a safe Labour seat.
In the 2018 local elections, Labour won every ward here bar one. The exception was Headstone North which borders onto Pinner and Hatch End, and which contains the last vestiges of upmarket Tory suburbia to be found here, containing predominantly detached family homes – even this ward was fairly competitive. There is some similar terrain in the northern part of Rayners Lane ward, but south of the Metropolitan line the general area of South Harrow is now very solid for Labour.
This encompasses part of Rayners Lane and the wards of Roxbourne and Roxeth. This has always been a fairly grotty neighbourhood and was marginal at best but is now overwhelmingly strong for Labour.
Roxbourne contains a large proportion of social housing including the grim Rayners Lane estate while Roxeth blends almost imperceptibly into Northolt in Ealing borough. There is a very low White British proportion now in this area and unlike the South East of the borough, this is not an overwhelmingly Gujerati Hindu area. That group are to be found in large numbers here, but other groups are also, such as Sri Lankans and Somalians. As in much of this borough, outside the council estates, inter-war semis are the dominant housing type in South Harrow.
There tends to be older (early 20th Century) housing closer to the town centre in Headstone South and West Harrow and some of the areas here are not unattractive but have clearly seen better days. Headstone South ward is an area of chronic Conservative weakness – it was a Lib Dem stronghold at the local level for many years before becoming a safe Labour ward. West Harrow has also trended to Labour though it is one of the few wards where the Conservatives remain competitive at least.
The strongest Central Harrow ward for the Conservatives was always Harrow-on-the-Hill. Harrow-on-the-Hill itself indeed – the old village around the famous public school – is still a very desirable area, still predominantly white and very wealthy and Conservative. But it does not even dominate the ward it is named for let alone the constituency – there are grottier areas down the hill towards Roxeth and the ward includes the bleak, brutalist Grange Farm council estate. After a number of years of split representation, Labour comfortably won all three seats here in 2018.
Of the wards imported from Harrow East in 2010, Greenhill covers most of the town centre and includes a variety of housing types, ranging from Victorian workers terraces to some quite upmarket areas in the East towards Kenton and Northwick Park and now much modern high density developments of mixed tenure. The Conservatives maintain a presence here but in general it has also trended in Labour’s direction. Finally, Marlborough is a ward which has always been safely Labour – this covers the area around Harrow & Wealdstone station and Harrow Civic Centre, encompassing part of the town centre and the southern end of Wealdstone. There are dingy streets of terraced housing here though it is a bit more pleasantly suburban out towards Belmont. As in Greenhill there has also been considerable new development here such as on the site of the old Kodak factory.
The electoral contrast with Harrow East is fascinating and requires some explanation. Clearly the 2010 boundary changes made this a better seat for Labour than East where previously the opposite had been the case, but the behaviour of the two seats has continued to diverge since then. On the 2005 notional results, both seats were notionally Labour but with the Labour margin being about 10% higher here than in East and that differential was more or less maintained in 2010 and 2015. In the last two elections though the difference has widened to about 30%.
One factor is that with the removal of Pinner there is almost a complete absence of Jewish voters in this constituency now. Another is that the Gujerati Hindu community is not as numerous here and there is a greater presence of other ethnic groups like Somalians who are far more loyal to Labour. Also - and this is rather impressionistic – the residual white middle-class population is a bit more left-leaning here: The Remain vote was somewhat higher in the referendum, there is more of a liberal public-sector element, teachers etc in the central areas particularly. These differences can be overstated though. Of course, there is not the solid Conservative voting block that Harrow East contains in the Stanmore area, but this does not account for the divergence post-2010.
The likeliest explanation is in the personal incumbency vote that Bob Blackman has built up in East, but which is still benefiting Gareth Thomas here. It has been observed that ethnic Indian voters have a particular propensity to reward incumbents in this way. Given Labour’s ever-increasing local government dominance in the wards which make up this seat it is not likely that even with the loss of that incumbency things would change here. It would surely require a radical redrawing of the boundaries, undoing the effects of the changes which occurred in 2010 to even make the Conservatives competitive here again.
2018 local election results
2019 General election
2017 General election
2015 General election
2016 EU referendum
2011 census
The Labour gain of Harrow West in 1997 was one of the most shocking results of that extraordinary election. Labour had been in a distant third place only ten years previously and the 1992 majority in this unchanged seat was nearly 18,000 – a swing of over 16% was required to win but in the event a swing of over 17% was achieved. Harrow West had been a very safe Conservative seat since its creation, even returning a majority of nearly 10,000 in the inaugural contest in 1945. It consisted mostly of a swathe of middle-class inter-war suburbia, noticeably more upmarket than its neighbour to the East. The winning margin was only narrow in 1997 but as in so much of London the seat swung heavily to Labour again in 2001, before swinging back strongly again in 2005 (again in line with the regional pattern).
The constituency would have been ripe for the taking in 2010, as its eastern neighbour was, but the boundary commission intervened decisively to save Labour here. Over 20,000 voters in the north of the constituency were removed, in the neighbourhoods of Pinner and Hatch End. These very affluent and middle-class suburbs were always the Tory strongholds in Harrow West and their removal alone was enough to leave the rump of Harrow West as strongly Labour leaning. But their loss required some compensation, and this came in the form of the Greenhill and Marlborough wards from Harrow East which boosted Labour further. This constituency now bore more resemblance to the old Harrow Central seat than to the old Harrow West. Nevertheless, that was a consistently (if not overwhelmingly) Conservative seat during its existence from 1950 to 1983 and even on these boundaries this would not have been a Labour seat prior to 1997.
The Conservatives may still have entertained some hopes here and were moderately competitive in 2010 and 2015 before another huge swing to Labour in 2017 put them ahead by a five-figure margin. Things settled down a little in 2019 but this is now clearly a safe Labour seat.
In the 2018 local elections, Labour won every ward here bar one. The exception was Headstone North which borders onto Pinner and Hatch End, and which contains the last vestiges of upmarket Tory suburbia to be found here, containing predominantly detached family homes – even this ward was fairly competitive. There is some similar terrain in the northern part of Rayners Lane ward, but south of the Metropolitan line the general area of South Harrow is now very solid for Labour.
This encompasses part of Rayners Lane and the wards of Roxbourne and Roxeth. This has always been a fairly grotty neighbourhood and was marginal at best but is now overwhelmingly strong for Labour.
Roxbourne contains a large proportion of social housing including the grim Rayners Lane estate while Roxeth blends almost imperceptibly into Northolt in Ealing borough. There is a very low White British proportion now in this area and unlike the South East of the borough, this is not an overwhelmingly Gujerati Hindu area. That group are to be found in large numbers here, but other groups are also, such as Sri Lankans and Somalians. As in much of this borough, outside the council estates, inter-war semis are the dominant housing type in South Harrow.
There tends to be older (early 20th Century) housing closer to the town centre in Headstone South and West Harrow and some of the areas here are not unattractive but have clearly seen better days. Headstone South ward is an area of chronic Conservative weakness – it was a Lib Dem stronghold at the local level for many years before becoming a safe Labour ward. West Harrow has also trended to Labour though it is one of the few wards where the Conservatives remain competitive at least.
The strongest Central Harrow ward for the Conservatives was always Harrow-on-the-Hill. Harrow-on-the-Hill itself indeed – the old village around the famous public school – is still a very desirable area, still predominantly white and very wealthy and Conservative. But it does not even dominate the ward it is named for let alone the constituency – there are grottier areas down the hill towards Roxeth and the ward includes the bleak, brutalist Grange Farm council estate. After a number of years of split representation, Labour comfortably won all three seats here in 2018.
Of the wards imported from Harrow East in 2010, Greenhill covers most of the town centre and includes a variety of housing types, ranging from Victorian workers terraces to some quite upmarket areas in the East towards Kenton and Northwick Park and now much modern high density developments of mixed tenure. The Conservatives maintain a presence here but in general it has also trended in Labour’s direction. Finally, Marlborough is a ward which has always been safely Labour – this covers the area around Harrow & Wealdstone station and Harrow Civic Centre, encompassing part of the town centre and the southern end of Wealdstone. There are dingy streets of terraced housing here though it is a bit more pleasantly suburban out towards Belmont. As in Greenhill there has also been considerable new development here such as on the site of the old Kodak factory.
The electoral contrast with Harrow East is fascinating and requires some explanation. Clearly the 2010 boundary changes made this a better seat for Labour than East where previously the opposite had been the case, but the behaviour of the two seats has continued to diverge since then. On the 2005 notional results, both seats were notionally Labour but with the Labour margin being about 10% higher here than in East and that differential was more or less maintained in 2010 and 2015. In the last two elections though the difference has widened to about 30%.
One factor is that with the removal of Pinner there is almost a complete absence of Jewish voters in this constituency now. Another is that the Gujerati Hindu community is not as numerous here and there is a greater presence of other ethnic groups like Somalians who are far more loyal to Labour. Also - and this is rather impressionistic – the residual white middle-class population is a bit more left-leaning here: The Remain vote was somewhat higher in the referendum, there is more of a liberal public-sector element, teachers etc in the central areas particularly. These differences can be overstated though. Of course, there is not the solid Conservative voting block that Harrow East contains in the Stanmore area, but this does not account for the divergence post-2010.
The likeliest explanation is in the personal incumbency vote that Bob Blackman has built up in East, but which is still benefiting Gareth Thomas here. It has been observed that ethnic Indian voters have a particular propensity to reward incumbents in this way. Given Labour’s ever-increasing local government dominance in the wards which make up this seat it is not likely that even with the loss of that incumbency things would change here. It would surely require a radical redrawing of the boundaries, undoing the effects of the changes which occurred in 2010 to even make the Conservatives competitive here again.
2018 local election results
| 1. Headsrone North | 6. Roxeth |
| 2. Headstone South | 7. Harrow-on-the-Hill |
| 3. West Harrow | 8. Greenhill |
| 4. Rayners Lane | 9. Marlborough |
| 5. Roxbourne |
2019 General election
| Lab | 25,132 | 52.4% |
| Con | 16,440 | 34.3% |
| LD | 4,310 | 9.0% |
| Grn | 1,109 | 2.3% |
| BP | 931 | 1.9% |
| Majority | 8,692 | 18.1% |
2017 General election
| Lab | 30,640 | 60.8% |
| Con | 17,326 | 34.4% |
| LD | 1,267 | 2.5% |
| Grn | 652 | 1.3% |
| UKIP | 470 | 0.9% |
| Majority | 13,314 | 26.4% |
2015 General election
| Lab | 21,885 | 47.0% |
| Con | 19,677 | 42.2% |
| UKIP | 2,047 | 4.3% |
| LD | 1,567 | 3.3% |
| Grn | 1,310 | 2.8% |
| Majority | 2,208 | 4.7% |
2016 EU referendum
| Remain | 54.9% | |
| Leave | 45.1% |
2011 census
% | Rank | % | Rank | % | Rank | % | Rank | ||||
| Owner Occupied | 60.0 | 420 | White | 40.1 | 559 | Christian | 39.2 | 551 | Graduates | 38.5 | 54 |
| Social Rented | 10.9 | 472 | Asian | 42.9 | 10 | Muslim | 13.3 | 57 | No Qualifications | 14.7 | 536 |
| Private Rented | 26.4 | 58 | Black | 9.3 | 49 | Hindu | 24.7 | 4 | |||
| Mixed | 4.6 | 55 | Sikh | 1.6 | 54 | Students | 11.6 | 93 | |||
| Other | 3.0 | 43 | Jewish | 0.8 | 41 | ||||||
| None | 11.4 | 565 | Prof/Man | 40.4 | |||||||
| Routine/ | 18.9 | ||||||||||
| Semi Routine |
