North East Somerset

[loderingo]

In my description of Blaenau Gwent, I talked about the huge wave of immigration into the Welsh Valleys during the Industrial revolution.  What I have not addressed until now is where those workers came from.  While many workers initially came from the rural parts of Wales, later on there was a large movement of people from England and particularly North East Somerset.  Indeed if you come from the Valleys and have an English surname there is a good chance you will be able to trace one or more lines of your family tree back to this seat.  This seat itself has a long history of coal mining and was the centre of the Somerset Coalfield, which stretched towards Bath and the Bristol coalfield in the north and as far west as Nailsea in the North Somerset seat.  Nevertheless the heart of the coalfield was Midsomer Norton, Radstock and surrounding villages.  

There is some evidence of coal being dug in Roman times and certainly from medieval times but the pits were often of a small scale and often involved surface mining.  As the Welsh deep mines developed, the new mine owners were able to tempt many workers across the Severn with the prospect of better wages.  The coalfield reached its peak in the early twentieth century before going into decline from the 1930s with the last pit closing in the 1970s.  The coalfield lead to the creation of infrastructure that would not otherwise have been needed in an otherwise rural area. The Somersetshire coal canal is being in the process of being restored. The Somerset and Dorset Joint railway, nicknamed the "Slow and Dirty" travelled through the coalfield and connected Bath with Bournemouth before being culled in the Beeching Axe. There has been a campaign to restore the line and there is a small steam heritage railway at Midsomer Norton.

It might be worth saying a bit at this point about the local MP Jacob Rees-Mogg.  Rees-Mogg has sometimes been seen as old fashioned but he is unusually in having deep historical roots to the constituency he represents in parliament.  The Mogg family were prominent local landowners and owned shares in some of the local coal mines.  The Rees -Moggs were formed in 1805 when a poor Welsh cleric named Rees married a Mogg heiress.  The family home is at Cameley one of the mining villages.

Beyond coal, the seat also has other points of interest. In the west, the seat has more rural aspect.  The Chew Valley reservoir was created in 1950 and is the 5th largest artificial body of water in the UK.  It is a very popular spot for trout fishing.  Also in the Chew Valley is Stanton Drew, which has a number of neolithic stone circles.  The great circle is the 2nd largest in Britain after Avebury.

In the north of the seat Keynsham is between Bristol and Bath and is known for its former Frys then Cadburys chocolate factory.  After Cadbury was taken over by Kraft the factory was controversially closed down and is now going to be redeveloped. In the East of the seat, the Bathavon wards cover a number of small villages in the outer orbit of Bath

The North East Somerset was created in 2010 as the successor seat to the old Wansdyke seat, which had also included a portion of what is now the Kingswood seat.  That in turn was created in 1983 from the old North Somerset seat.  That seat was much larger, stretching from Bathavon to Portishead and included portions of both the current North East Somerset and North Somerset seats.

The Wansdyke seat was held by Jack Aspinwall, previously one term MP for Kingswood  from 1983 to 1992 with fairly comfortable majorities (13,000 in 1992). In 1997 a huge 15% swing saw Dan Norris beat new candidate Mark Prisk (later MP for Hertford) by 5,500 votes.  Norris' majority dwindled to 2,000 by 2005 and the boundary changes meant the new North East Somerset seat was already notionally Tory for 2010. Rees-Mogg took the seat by 5,000 votes and in each subsequent election his majority has been in 5 figures (14,729 in 2019).

This doesn't tell the whole story, however. In the Brexit referendum, BANES was perhaps one of the most politically divided authorities in the country.  The Bath half is estimated to have voted 32% remain, while North East Somerset is estimated to have voted 51% leave.  Within that I suspect that the strongest remain areas would have been the villages around Bath, while the Norton Radstock area would have been for leave.  The latter area is where Labour have their greatest strength.

In 2019 BANES council voted 37 LDs, 11 Conservative, 5 Labour and 6 Independent.  The LDs swept Bath and also did well in the North East Somerset part winning the ward where Rees-Mogg lives. This led to perhaps some overexcitement over the general election.  The LDs did get a large swing to them but Rees-Mogg's majority went up even as his vote % dropped due a more evenly split opposition.  The final split was Con 50.4%, Lab 24.2%, LD 22.1%

This might be a seat worth keeping an eye on in the longer term to see if we see a "Bath effect" as we have seen a "Brighton effect".

There is likely to be some impact on this seat from the next boundary review. The Bath seat is somewhat undersized and is likely to take back the Bathavon wards ending the inner/outer doughnut split as per York.  In turn it wouldn't surprise me if this seat ends up taking a ward such as Stockland from Bristol as the commission will have to find a way to downsize the overly large Bristol West via transfers.

[🏴‍☠️ Neath West 🏴‍☠️]

This needs something about the megalithic monuments of Stanton Drew.

[Chris from Brum]

Apr 30, 2020 21:55:56 GMT loderingo said:

In my description of Blaenau Gwent, I talked about the huge wave of immigration into the Welsh Valleys during the Industrial revolution.  What I have not addressed until now is where those workers came from.  While many workers initially came from the rural parts of Wales, later on there was a large movement of people from England and particularly North East Somerset.  Indeed if you come from the Valleys and have an English surname there is a good chance you will be able to trace one or more lines of your family tree back to this seat.  This seat itself has a long history of coal mining and was the centre of the Somerset Coalfield, which stretched towards Bath and the Bristol coalfield in the north and as far west as Nailsea in the North Somerset seat.  Nevertheless the heart of the coalfield was Midsomer Norton, Radstock and surrounding villages.  

There is some evidence of coal being dug in Roman times and certainly from medieval times but the pits were often of a small scale and often involved surface mining.  As the Welsh deep mines developed, the new mine owners were able to tempt many workers across the Severn with the prospect of better wages.  The coalfield reached its peak in the early twentieth century before going into decline from the 1930s with the last pit closing in the 1970s.  The coalfield lead to the creation of infrastructure that would not otherwise have been needed in an otherwise rural area. The Somersetshire coal canal is being in the process of being restored. The Somerset and Dorset Joint railway, nicknamed the "Slow and Dirty" travelled through the coalfield and connected Bath with Bournemouth before being culled in the Beeching Axe. There has been a campaign to restore the line and there is a small steam heritage railway at Midsomer Norton.

It might be worth saying a bit at this point about the local MP Jacob Rees-Mogg.  Rees-Mogg has sometimes been seen as old fashioned but he is unusually in having deep historical roots to the constituency he represents in parliament.  The Mogg family were prominent local landowners and owned shares in some of the local coal mines.  The Rees -Moggs were formed in 1805 when a poor Welsh cleric named Rees married a Mogg heiress.  The family home is at Cameley one of the mining villages.

Beyond coal, the seat also has other points of interest. In the west, the seat has more rural aspect.  The Chew Valley reservoir was created in 1950 and is the 5th largest artificial body of water in the UK.  It is a very popular spot for trout fishing.  In the north of the seat Keynsham is between Bristol and Bath and is known for its former Frys then Cadburys chocolate factory.  After Cadbury was taken over by Kraft the factory was controversially closed down and is now going to be redeveloped. In the East of the seat, the Bathavon wards cover a number of small villages in the outer orbit of Bath

MORE TO FOLLOW TOMORROW

[John Chanin]

All I know about Keynsham is the pools tipster who used to issue part of a complete perm to everyone he signed up, and used to advertise obsessively on Radio Luxembourg when I was a kid. K-E-Y-N-S-H-A-M Keynsham...... I had no idea where it was until years later.

[European Lefty]

I have some very fond memories of playing rugby against Keynsham. Nice club.

[Disgusted Of Tunbridge Wells]

Apr 30, 2020 21:55:56 GMT loderingo said:

In my description of Blaenau Gwent, I talked about the huge wave of immigration into the Welsh Valleys during the Industrial revolution.  What I have not addressed until now is where those workers came from.  While many workers initially came from the rural parts of Wales, later on there was a large movement of people from England and particularly North East Somerset.  Indeed if you come from the Valleys and have an English surname there is a good chance you will be able to trace one or more lines of your family tree back to this seat.  This seat itself has a long history of coal mining and was the centre of the Somerset Coalfield, which stretched towards Bath and the Bristol coalfield in the north and as far west as Nailsea in the North Somerset seat.  Nevertheless the heart of the coalfield was Midsomer Norton, Radstock and surrounding villages.  

There is some evidence of coal being dug in Roman times and certainly from medieval times but the pits were often of a small scale and often involved surface mining.  As the Welsh deep mines developed, the new mine owners were able to tempt many workers across the Severn with the prospect of better wages.  The coalfield reached its peak in the early twentieth century before going into decline from the 1930s with the last pit closing in the 1970s.  The coalfield lead to the creation of infrastructure that would not otherwise have been needed in an otherwise rural area. The Somersetshire coal canal is being in the process of being restored. The Somerset and Dorset Joint railway, nicknamed the "Slow and Dirty" travelled through the coalfield and connected Bath with Bournemouth before being culled in the Beeching Axe. There has been a campaign to restore the line and there is a small steam heritage railway at Midsomer Norton.

It might be worth saying a bit at this point about the local MP Jacob Rees-Mogg.  Rees-Mogg has sometimes been seen as old fashioned but he is unusually in having deep historical roots to the constituency he represents in parliament.  The Mogg family were prominent local landowners and owned shares in some of the local coal mines.  The Rees -Moggs were formed in 1805 when a poor Welsh cleric named Rees married a Mogg heiress.  The family home is at Cameley one of the mining villages.

Beyond coal, the seat also has other points of interest. In the west, the seat has more rural aspect.  The Chew Valley reservoir was created in 1950 and is the 5th largest artificial body of water in the UK.  It is a very popular spot for trout fishing.  Also in the Chew Valley is Stanton Drew, which has a number of neolithic stone circles.  The great circle is the 2nd largest in Britain after Avebury.

In the north of the seat Keynsham is between Bristol and Bath and is known for its former Frys then Cadburys chocolate factory.  After Cadbury was taken over by Kraft the factory was controversially closed down and is now going to be redeveloped. In the East of the seat, the Bathavon wards cover a number of small villages in the outer orbit of Bath

The North East Somerset was created in 2010 as the successor seat to the old Wansdyke seat, which had also included a portion of what is now the Kingswood seat.  That in turn was created in 1983 from the old North Somerset seat.  That seat was much larger, stretching from Bathavon to Portishead and included portions of both the current North East Somerset and North Somerset seats.

The Wansdyke seat was held by Jack Aspinwall, previously one term MP for Kingswood  from 1983 to 1992 with fairly comfortable majorities (13,000 in 1992). In 1997 a huge 15% swing saw Dan Norris beat new candidate Mark Prisk (later MP for Hertford) by 5,500 votes.  Norris' majority dwindled to 2,000 by 2005 and the boundary changes meant the new North East Somerset seat was already notionally Tory for 2010. Rees-Mogg took the seat by 5,000 votes and in each subsequent election his majority has been in 5 figures (14,729 in 2019).

This doesn't tell the whole story, however. In the Brexit referendum, BANES was perhaps one of the most politically divided authorities in the country.  The Bath half is estimated to have voted 32% remain, while North East Somerset is estimated to have voted 51% leave.  Within that I suspect that the strongest remain areas would have been the villages around Bath, while the Norton Radstock area would have been for leave.  The latter area is where Labour have their greatest strength.

In 2019 BANES council voted 37 LDs, 11 Conservative, 5 Labour and 6 Independent.  The LDs swept Bath and also did well in the North East Somerset part winning the ward where Rees-Mogg lives. This led to perhaps some overexcitement over the general election.  The LDs did get a large swing to them but Rees-Mogg's majority went up even as his vote % dropped due a more evenly split opposition.  The final split was Con 50.4%, Lab 24.2%, LD 22.1%

This might be a seat worth keeping an eye on in the longer term to see if we see a "Bath effect" as we have seen a "Brighton effect".

There is likely to be some impact on this seat from the next boundary review. The Bath seat is somewhat undersized and is likely to take back the Bathavon wards ending the inner/outer doughnut split as per York.  In turn it wouldn't surprise me if this seat ends up taking a ward such as Stockland from Bristol as the commission will have to find a way to downsize the overly large Bristol West via transfers.

Thanks for writing the profile, it's been very informative. However, I spotted a slight mistake. Surely Bath did not vote 32 percent remain?

[froome]

May 16, 2020 18:58:13 GMT Disgusted Of Tunbridge Wells said:

Apr 30, 2020 21:55:56 GMT loderingo said:

In my description of Blaenau Gwent, I talked about the huge wave of immigration into the Welsh Valleys during the Industrial revolution.  What I have not addressed until now is where those workers came from.  While many workers initially came from the rural parts of Wales, later on there was a large movement of people from England and particularly North East Somerset.  Indeed if you come from the Valleys and have an English surname there is a good chance you will be able to trace one or more lines of your family tree back to this seat.  This seat itself has a long history of coal mining and was the centre of the Somerset Coalfield, which stretched towards Bath and the Bristol coalfield in the north and as far west as Nailsea in the North Somerset seat.  Nevertheless the heart of the coalfield was Midsomer Norton, Radstock and surrounding villages.  

There is some evidence of coal being dug in Roman times and certainly from medieval times but the pits were often of a small scale and often involved surface mining.  As the Welsh deep mines developed, the new mine owners were able to tempt many workers across the Severn with the prospect of better wages.  The coalfield reached its peak in the early twentieth century before going into decline from the 1930s with the last pit closing in the 1970s.  The coalfield lead to the creation of infrastructure that would not otherwise have been needed in an otherwise rural area. The Somersetshire coal canal is being in the process of being restored. The Somerset and Dorset Joint railway, nicknamed the "Slow and Dirty" travelled through the coalfield and connected Bath with Bournemouth before being culled in the Beeching Axe. There has been a campaign to restore the line and there is a small steam heritage railway at Midsomer Norton.

It might be worth saying a bit at this point about the local MP Jacob Rees-Mogg.  Rees-Mogg has sometimes been seen as old fashioned but he is unusually in having deep historical roots to the constituency he represents in parliament.  The Mogg family were prominent local landowners and owned shares in some of the local coal mines.  The Rees -Moggs were formed in 1805 when a poor Welsh cleric named Rees married a Mogg heiress.  The family home is at Cameley one of the mining villages.

Beyond coal, the seat also has other points of interest. In the west, the seat has more rural aspect.  The Chew Valley reservoir was created in 1950 and is the 5th largest artificial body of water in the UK.  It is a very popular spot for trout fishing.  Also in the Chew Valley is Stanton Drew, which has a number of neolithic stone circles.  The great circle is the 2nd largest in Britain after Avebury.

In the north of the seat Keynsham is between Bristol and Bath and is known for its former Frys then Cadburys chocolate factory.  After Cadbury was taken over by Kraft the factory was controversially closed down and is now going to be redeveloped. In the East of the seat, the Bathavon wards cover a number of small villages in the outer orbit of Bath

The North East Somerset was created in 2010 as the successor seat to the old Wansdyke seat, which had also included a portion of what is now the Kingswood seat.  That in turn was created in 1983 from the old North Somerset seat.  That seat was much larger, stretching from Bathavon to Portishead and included portions of both the current North East Somerset and North Somerset seats.

The Wansdyke seat was held by Jack Aspinwall, previously one term MP for Kingswood  from 1983 to 1992 with fairly comfortable majorities (13,000 in 1992). In 1997 a huge 15% swing saw Dan Norris beat new candidate Mark Prisk (later MP for Hertford) by 5,500 votes.  Norris' majority dwindled to 2,000 by 2005 and the boundary changes meant the new North East Somerset seat was already notionally Tory for 2010. Rees-Mogg took the seat by 5,000 votes and in each subsequent election his majority has been in 5 figures (14,729 in 2019).

This doesn't tell the whole story, however. In the Brexit referendum, BANES was perhaps one of the most politically divided authorities in the country.  The Bath half is estimated to have voted 32% remain, while North East Somerset is estimated to have voted 51% leave.  Within that I suspect that the strongest remain areas would have been the villages around Bath, while the Norton Radstock area would have been for leave.  The latter area is where Labour have their greatest strength.

In 2019 BANES council voted 37 LDs, 11 Conservative, 5 Labour and 6 Independent.  The LDs swept Bath and also did well in the North East Somerset part winning the ward where Rees-Mogg lives. This led to perhaps some overexcitement over the general election.  The LDs did get a large swing to them but Rees-Mogg's majority went up even as his vote % dropped due a more evenly split opposition.  The final split was Con 50.4%, Lab 24.2%, LD 22.1%

This might be a seat worth keeping an eye on in the longer term to see if we see a "Bath effect" as we have seen a "Brighton effect".

There is likely to be some impact on this seat from the next boundary review. The Bath seat is somewhat undersized and is likely to take back the Bathavon wards ending the inner/outer doughnut split as per York.  In turn it wouldn't surprise me if this seat ends up taking a ward such as Stockland from Bristol as the commission will have to find a way to downsize the overly large Bristol West via transfers.

Thanks for writing the profile, it's been very informative. However, I spotted a slight mistake. Surely Bath did not vote 32 percent remain?

No, it obviously should say 32% leave or 68% remain (my estimate as a resident was about 70% remain).

Another slight error in the final paragraph is that Stockland should be Stockwood. I would be surprised if that was moved to this constituency, though it isn't inconceivable.

[Robert Waller]

2011 Census

Age 65+ 20.3% 125/650
Owner-occupied 76.8% 44/650
Private rented 10.1% 573/650
Social rented 11.2% 531/650
White 97.6% 174/650
Black 0.3% 464/650
Asian 1.0% 522/650
Managerial & professional 34.2%
Routine & Semi-routine 24.4%
Part time employee 16.5% 9/650
Degree level 28.6% 220/650
No qualifications 20.6% 432/650
Students 7.0% 289/650

2021 Census

Owner occupied 75.9% 41/573
Private rented 12.2% 549/573
Social rented 11.8% 432/573
White 96.2%
Black 0.5%
Asian 1.3%
Managerial & professional 36.9% 171/573
Routine & Semi-routine 21.9% 359/573
Degree level 34.8% 208/573
No qualifications 14.7% 438/573



General Election 2019: North East Somerset

Party Candidate Votes % ±%

Conservative Jacob Rees-Mogg 28,360 50.4 -3.2
Labour Mark Huband 13,631 24.2 -10.5
Liberal Democrats Nick Coates 12,422 22.1 +13.8
Green Fay Whitfield 1,423 2.5 +0.2
Independent Shaun Hughes 472 0.8 -0.3

C Majority 14,729 26.2 +7.3

Turnout 56,308 76.4 +0.7

Conservative hold

Swing 3.6 Lab to C

[Pete Whitehead]

This constituency is heavily redfrawn and renamed in proposed boundary changes. Over 32,000 voters are removed, mostly in the Midsomer-Norton-Radstock area to the new Frome seat but also in Bathavon to Bath. As many voters come in on the North bank of the Avon from Kingswood in Hanham, Bitton, Warmley etc. These are more Conservative than average for Kingswood while the departing areas are less reliable (Norton-Radstock is a major source of Labour support in this seat and Bathavon is susceptible to voting Lib Dem). The notional majority is therefore increased quite substantially but also make Labour very clearly the challenger in this seat. There are loads of swing voters in the Bristol suburbs which now dominate this seat so those hoping for a Rees-Mogg moment in 2024 might not give up all hope.
In the initial proposals the name was to change to Keynsham & NE Somerset which actually gave no acknowledgement to the South Glouctershire contingent as Keynsham is already in the seat. The revise plans do not alter the boundaries, but change the name to 'North East Somerset & Hanham' - a pretty unsatisfactory name for a poorly drawn constituency

2019 Notional result - North East Somerset & Hanham

Con	30506	58.1%
Lab	13143	25.0%
LD	7098	13.5%
Grn	1257	2.4%
Oth	464	0.9%
Majority	17363	33.1%