For many decades after the division of the two-member Southampton constituency into individual seats in 1950, Test was less favourable to Labour than Itchen. For example, it was won by the Conservatives in the general elections of 1955, 1959, 1964, 1970, February 1974, 1979, 1983 and 1987, and fulfilled the conditions for a bellwether from 1966-2010, whereas Itchen was continuously won by Labour from 1950 to 1979 (saving only Horace King’s period as Speaker of the House of Commons) and 1992 to 2010. Yet in the last three elections the situation has reversed, as Alan Whitehead has retained Test three times while Royston Smith has won Itchen thrice for the Tories. What has caused this apparent reversal of preference? Three theories may be tested: boundary changes, the student or university vote, or possibly the reflection of deep changes within voting behaviour on class lines.
Test has always been West as far as Southampton is concerned. It is named after one of the two Hampshire rivers that flow into the Southampton Water extension of the Solent here, and is situated entirely to the west of the Itchen. Test consists of the City of Southampton wards of Bevois, Coxford, Freemantle, Millbrook, Portswood, Redbridge, and Shirley. It is true that up to 1997 Test also included the most up-market residential ward in the whole of the city, Bassett on its northern fringes, which was then shifted into Romsey (now Romsey and Southampton North), as the city is a little too populous to be contained in two whole seats. The boundary with Itchen in the vicinity of the city centre has also been adjusted on occasion, but these changes are not enough to account for Test’s transformation from a slightly Tory-inclined marginal in the second half of the twentieth century to a safeish Labour seat in the twenty-first.
On the student vote, It is true that Southampton University’s main campus is situated within Test in a corner of the Portswood ward, and the constituency did rank 47th in the rank order of full time students at the time of the 2011 Census. However, Itchen actually ranked higher, in 40th place, even before the impact of the new 1100 room Southampton University Mayflower halls of residence in Bargate ward took full effect; and the campus of Southampton Solent University is also in Itchen. So the divergence does not seem to be thus explained. However it is indeed relevant that Test has always been the less working class of the two Southampton seats. In 2011 Itchen was 417th out of 650 in the percentage of higher professional workers, Test was 256th (above average) in higher professional occupations. In previous eras that would be an indicator that Test was more inclined to Conservatism, but not in recent years, as the electoral impact of socio-economic class has flattened almost to net zero in 2019. The impact of Brexit has pulled preferences the other way. Itchen is estimated to have voted around 60-40 to leave, Test to be close to 50-50. However, the contrary trends in Southampton are more long lasting and deeper than that.
Labour’s stronger performance in Test was also reflected in the May 2019 council election results, which were presumably less dominated by the European issue. They won six of the seven wards, missing only Millbrook (interestingly a ward with higher deprivation - 41% of its population in the most deprived fifth compared with a city-wide average of 28% - and lower educational levels than the city norm), while the Tories took most of those in Itchen. The exchange of political characteristics between the two Southampton seats seems to be more illustrative of the major and fascinating change in British politics, as the traditional class cleavage that for so long underpinned the nature and shape of the two party system has fundamentally evolved and weakened. Southampton has long been a rather typical English city, and this is no exception.
City ward profiles 2018 here
www.publichealth.southampton.gov.uk/healthintelligence/profiles-local.aspx?option=tcm:62-346450City ward map
www.southampton.gov.uk/council-democracy/councillors/wards-map.asp
General election 2019: Southampton TestParty Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Alan Whitehead 22,256 49.5 -9.2Conservative Steven Galton 16,043 35.7 +1.6
Liberal Democrats Joe Richards 3,449 7.7 +3.7
Brexit Party Philip Crook 1,591 3.5 N/A
Green Katherine Barbour 1,433 3.2 N/A
Independent Kev Barry 222 0.5 N/A
Lab Majority 6,213 13.8 -10.8Turnout 44,994 64.2 -2.6
Labour hold Swing 5.4 Lab to C
2011 CensusAge 65+ 11.7 576/650
Owner-occupied 46.3 599/650
Private rented 28.7 43/650
Social rented 23.1 143/650
White 83.1 512/650
Black 2.5 153/650
Asian 10.7 108/650
Managerial & professional 26.1
Routine & Semi-routine 26.9
Degree level 26.9 280/650
No qualifications 21.0 409/650
Students 17.2 49/650
2021 CensusOwner occupied 45.0% 529/573
Private rented 33.4% 43/573
Social rented 21.6% 119/573
White 77.3%
Black 3.4%
Asian 13.3%
Managerial & professional 27.5% 423/573
Routine & Semi-routine 26.0% 216/573
Degree level 33.4% 245/573
No qualifications 18.0% 277/573
Students 13.9% 43/573
BoundariesIn the initial and revised proposals of the Boundary Commission for England '2023 review' Southampton Test's boundaries were wholly unchanged.
