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Post by John Chanin on Apr 27, 2020 15:24:18 GMT
Sutton Coldfield is a rather reluctant part of the city of Birmingham. It was forced into union by the local government reforms of the 1970s. There is no question that geographically it is part of the city - the urban area is continuous - but socially it is a different matter. The seat throughout is very middle-class with little variation - owner-occupied, managerial jobs. Physically the main feature is the huge Sutton Park, which the seat surrounds on the south and east (the west is in Walsall borough, and the north is in Lichfield District). Some of the housing in the Four Oaks area is not just 4-bedroom executive houses, but positively plutocratic. To the east the boundary approximates to the new M6 toll. There is actually quite a lot of open country between the built up area and the city boundary, but there is nothing here but farms, and few voters. Most development in the north is post-war. The centre has some older housing, and a fraction more private renting and social housing but there is little in it. The southern section is mostly inter-war semis, as it blends indistinguishably into Erdington. To the south-east are Walmley and Minworth, two communities outside Sutton proper, Minworth being separated from the Castle Vale estate by an industrial estate and Birmingham’s main sewage works. Politically the seat has been entirely unchanged since 1974, as locals have resisted any rationalization of local ward boundaries. In 1979 it was the safest Conservative seat in the whole country. Since then it has slid down the list, along with general trends in urban areas, and the arrival of some ethnic minority households. There was only a narrow Leave vote here at the 2016 referendum. However it is still very safe. Locally Labour wins the Vesey ward, a narrow strip sandwiched between the Birmingham boundary and Sutton Park. However this is largely due to the untiring work of local activist Rob Pocock, and Vesey would have voted Conservative in the General Election like the rest of Sutton Coldfield. MP here since 2001 is veteran Andrew Mitchell, first elected for Gedling in Nottingham in 1987. He is a former cabinet minister, probably best known for “Plebgate”, when he supposedly abused a policeman on guard at Downing Street. Once again the Boundary Commission is proposing no change to this seat. Census data: owner-occupied 80% (18/573 in England & Wales), private rented 11% (501st), social rented 8% (550th). :White 89%, Black 2%, Sth Asian 5%, Mixed 2%, Other 2% : Managerial & professional 48% (62nd), Routine & Semi-routine 19% (522nd) : Degree 35% (83rd), Minimal qualifications 31% (456th) : Students 3.1% (302nd), Over 65: 20% (124th)
| 2010 | % | 2015 | % | 2017 | % | 2019 | % | Conservative | 27,303 | 54.0% | 27,782 | 54.6% | 32,224 | 61.0% | 31,604 | 60.4% | Labour | 10,298 | 20.4% | 11,365 | 22.3% | 16,885 | 31.9% | 12,332 | 23.6% | Liberal Democrat | 9,117 | 18.0% | 2,627 | 5.2% | 2,302 | 4.4% | 6,358 | 12.2% | UKIP | 1,587 | 3.1% | 7,489 | 14.7% | | | |
| Green | 535 | 1.1% | 1,426 | 2.8% | 965 | 1.8% | 2,031 | 3.9% | Others | 1,749 | 3.5% | 165 | 0.3% | 482 | 0.9% | |
| Majority | 17,005 | 33.6% | 16,417 | 32.3% | 15,339 | 29.0% | 19,272 | 36.8% |
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Post by November_Rain on Apr 27, 2020 16:13:05 GMT
John excellent article. Thank you.
Question: Sutton Vesey, does that include some of the Falcon Lodge housing estate? That would be fertile ground for Labour votes there.
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Post by John Chanin on Apr 27, 2020 16:30:50 GMT
John excellent article. Thank you. Question: Sutton Vesey, does that include some of the Falcon Lodge housing estate? That would be fertile ground for Labour votes there. No, Falcon Lodge is on the far eastern side of Sutton Coldfield in Reddicap ward. It is indeed the only sizeable council estate in the whole seat. |
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Post by November_Rain on Apr 27, 2020 16:31:55 GMT
John excellent article. Thank you. Question: Sutton Vesey, does that include some of the Falcon Lodge housing estate? That would be fertile ground for Labour votes there. No, Falcon Lodge is on the far eastern side of Sutton Coldfield in Reddicap ward. It is indeed the only sizeable council estate in the whole seat. Thank you. I know Labour claimed a town councillor in that ward in 2018. |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 27, 2020 16:46:47 GMT
The Liberal Party had some strength here for a time and at the 1973 WMCC election they won two of the three wards (New Hall and Vesey).
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Apr 27, 2020 17:23:37 GMT
(The People's Republic of)
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iang
Lib Dem
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Post by iang on Apr 28, 2020 9:53:20 GMT
The Liberal Party had some strength here for a time and at the 1973 WMCC election they won two of the three wards (New Hall and Vesey). Jim Whorwood was one of the councillors then, who was much later a Birmingham councillor (in Acocks Green from 1999 - think he was Mayor at one point too). |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 28, 2020 15:47:03 GMT
Reluctant Birmingham is another phrase that would make a great name for an album.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 28, 2020 16:57:38 GMT
The Liberal Party had some strength here for a time and at the 1973 WMCC election they won two of the three wards (New Hall and Vesey). Jim Whorwood was one of the councillors then, who was much later a Birmingham councillor (in Acocks Green from 1999 - think he was Mayor at one point too). First elected in a by election in 1997, served until 2010. He had to face the voters 5 times in 9 years: 1997, 1999, 2003, 2004 (all up on new boundaries) and 2006. I will stand corrected but I think he was on Sutton Coldfield Borough Council prior to its abolition in 1974. |
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Post by iainbhx on Apr 29, 2020 5:38:22 GMT
Jim Whorwood was one of the councillors then, who was much later a Birmingham councillor (in Acocks Green from 1999 - think he was Mayor at one point too). First elected in a by election in 1997, served until 2010. He had to face the voters 5 times in 9 years: 1997, 1999, 2003, 2004 (all up on new boundaries) and 2006. I will stand corrected but I think he was on Sutton Coldfield Borough Council prior to its abolition in 1974. He was on Sutton Coldfield Council - first elected in 1965. |
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iang
Lib Dem
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Post by iang on Apr 29, 2020 9:13:55 GMT
I ought to have remembered the 97 by election, as I went to help quite a bit. Yes, it was the SC council I was referring to above - don't know if he was on the West Mids CC as well
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Post by Robert Waller on Dec 8, 2022 17:53:00 GMT
2021 Census
Owner occupied 78.2% 18/573
Private rented 13.3% 513/573
Social rented 8.5% 549/573
White 81.4%
Black 2.8%
Asian 10.7%
(South Asian 8.6%)
Mixed 3.4%
Other 1.7%
Managerial & professional 44.7% 41/573
Routine & Semi-routine 16.2% 506/573
Degree level 42.2% 91/573
No qualifications 14.2% 433/573
2011 on same criteria
Degree level 34.9% 83/573
No qualifications 18.5% 446/573
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 8, 2022 18:41:56 GMT
Quite a change here but maybe not as much as one might expect. In general with these posts one is struck by how little the non-white population has grown in many seats. Lots of seats in shire counties where the White figure is down from say 97% to 95%. Only significant increases are in places like Birmingham Yardley and some edge of conurbation seats like Hertsmere and Epping Forest (and here). Obviously these figures aren't a revelation in themselves as we have the spreadsheet that bjornhattan published, but its very useful to see the comparison with the 2011 figures as we are able to on these threads. |
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Post by John Chanin on Dec 8, 2022 18:59:31 GMT
Quite a change here but maybe not as much as one might expect. In general with these posts one is struck by how little the non-white population has grown in many seats. Lots of seats in shire counties where the White figure is down from say 97% to 95%. Only significant increases are in places like Birmingham Yardley and some edge of conurbation seats like Hertsmere and Epping Forest (and here). Obviously these figures aren't a revelation in themselves as we have the spreadsheet that bjornhattan published, but its very useful to see the comparison with the 2011 figures as we are able to on these threads. has just put the new figures on all the seats where I have done profiles. I was going to wait until full census data was available, but yes the changes are interesting. Thurrock appears to have the largest change, which is no surprise, but yes the Birmingham suburbs here and in Solihull also show large moves. |
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Post by bjornhattan on Dec 8, 2022 19:34:26 GMT
Quite a change here but maybe not as much as one might expect. In general with these posts one is struck by how little the non-white population has grown in many seats. Lots of seats in shire counties where the White figure is down from say 97% to 95%. Only significant increases are in places like Birmingham Yardley and some edge of conurbation seats like Hertsmere and Epping Forest (and here). Obviously these figures aren't a revelation in themselves as we have the spreadsheet that bjornhattan published, but its very useful to see the comparison with the 2011 figures as we are able to on these threads. has just put the new figures on all the seats where I have done profiles. I was going to wait until full census data was available, but yes the changes are interesting. Thurrock appears to have the largest change, which is no surprise, but yes the Birmingham suburbs here and in Solihull also show large moves. Dagenham and Rainham has seen the largest change of all - particularly in the Chadwell Heath area. Many of the other seats to have seen significant changes are in that area too - Romford, Barking, Ilford North, and Thurrock. There's another cluster of seats which have seen similarly rapid change to the west of London (including all three Hillingdon seats and particularly Uxbridge and South Ruislip), and then several in the West Midlands (Yardley, Ladywood, Erdington, and the three Sandwell seats all featuring in the top thirty). Dartford is a curious case; the established residential parts of the town have seen relatively little change but there are a number of new estates between the town centre and the Thames which are extremely diverse.
Of course, there are various definitions you could use to define demographic change. I looked at all of the eighteen groups in the census and added up the absolute value of all changes (so if one group went up 5%, another down 3%, a third down 2%, and the rest all stayed the same, I'd assign that a value of 5+3+2=10%). This was why a seat like Ladywood was included - the White and Black populations both remained fairly level but in each case one subgroup (specifically "White British" and "Black Caribbean" respectively) became much smaller and a different one ("White Other" and "Black African") became much larger. Another way to measure change would be to look at the percentage growth in the minority population - by this metric several Merseyside seats come near the top, where there might have only been a moderate increase in the levels of diversity but it started from a very low base.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 8, 2022 20:11:08 GMT
Robert Waller has just put the new figures on all the seats where I have done profiles. I was going to wait until full census data was available, but yes the changes are interesting. Thurrock appears to have the largest change, which is no surprise, but yes the Birmingham suburbs here and in Solihull also show large moves. Dagenham and Rainham has seen the largest change of all - particularly in the Chadwell Heath area. Many of the other seats to have seen significant changes are in that area too - Romford, Barking, Ilford North, and Thurrock. There's another cluster of seats which have seen similarly rapid change to the west of London (including all three Hillingdon seats and particularly Uxbridge and South Ruislip), and then several in the West Midlands (Yardley, Ladywood, Erdington, and the three Sandwell seats all featuring in the top thirty). Dartford is a curious case; the established residential parts of the town have seen relatively little change but there are a number of new estates between the town centre and the Thames which are extremely diverse.
Of course, there are various definitions you could use to define demographic change. I looked at all of the eighteen groups in the census and added up the absolute value of all changes (so if one group went up 5%, another down 3%, a third down 2%, and the rest all stayed the same, I'd assign that a value of 5+3+2=10%). This was why a seat like Ladywood was included - the White and Black populations both remained fairly level but in each case one subgroup (specifically "White British" and "Black Caribbean" respectively) became much smaller and a different one ("White Other" and "Black African") became much larger. Another way to measure change would be to look at the percentage growth in the minority population - by this metric several Merseyside seats come near the top, where there might have only been a moderate increase in the levels of diversity but it started from a very low base.
That's a similar pattern in Thurrock - one such output area in Purfleet is over 50% Black |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 9, 2022 15:41:17 GMT
Robert Waller has just put the new figures on all the seats where I have done profiles. I was going to wait until full census data was available, but yes the changes are interesting. Thurrock appears to have the largest change, which is no surprise, but yes the Birmingham suburbs here and in Solihull also show large moves. Dagenham and Rainham has seen the largest change of all - particularly in the Chadwell Heath area. Many of the other seats to have seen significant changes are in that area too - Romford, Barking, Ilford North, and Thurrock. There's another cluster of seats which have seen similarly rapid change to the west of London (including all three Hillingdon seats and particularly Uxbridge and South Ruislip), and then several in the West Midlands (Yardley, Ladywood, Erdington, and the three Sandwell seats all featuring in the top thirty). Dartford is a curious case; the established residential parts of the town have seen relatively little change but there are a number of new estates between the town centre and the Thames which are extremely diverse.
Of course, there are various definitions you could use to define demographic change. I looked at all of the eighteen groups in the census and added up the absolute value of all changes (so if one group went up 5%, another down 3%, a third down 2%, and the rest all stayed the same, I'd assign that a value of 5+3+2=10%). This was why a seat like Ladywood was included - the White and Black populations both remained fairly level but in each case one subgroup (specifically "White British" and "Black Caribbean" respectively) became much smaller and a different one ("White Other" and "Black African") became much larger. Another way to measure change would be to look at the percentage growth in the minority population - by this metric several Merseyside seats come near the top, where there might have only been a moderate increase in the levels of diversity but it started from a very low base.
Do you know which Conservative-held seat has the smallest white population? Uxbridge does seem very low. |
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Post by bjornhattan on Dec 9, 2022 15:48:19 GMT
Dagenham and Rainham has seen the largest change of all - particularly in the Chadwell Heath area. Many of the other seats to have seen significant changes are in that area too - Romford, Barking, Ilford North, and Thurrock. There's another cluster of seats which have seen similarly rapid change to the west of London (including all three Hillingdon seats and particularly Uxbridge and South Ruislip), and then several in the West Midlands (Yardley, Ladywood, Erdington, and the three Sandwell seats all featuring in the top thirty). Dartford is a curious case; the established residential parts of the town have seen relatively little change but there are a number of new estates between the town centre and the Thames which are extremely diverse.
Of course, there are various definitions you could use to define demographic change. I looked at all of the eighteen groups in the census and added up the absolute value of all changes (so if one group went up 5%, another down 3%, a third down 2%, and the rest all stayed the same, I'd assign that a value of 5+3+2=10%). This was why a seat like Ladywood was included - the White and Black populations both remained fairly level but in each case one subgroup (specifically "White British" and "Black Caribbean" respectively) became much smaller and a different one ("White Other" and "Black African") became much larger. Another way to measure change would be to look at the percentage growth in the minority population - by this metric several Merseyside seats come near the top, where there might have only been a moderate increase in the levels of diversity but it started from a very low base.
Do you know which Conservative-held seat has the smallest white population? Uxbridge does seem very low. Harrow East, which is 36% white (and just 18.6% White British). |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 9, 2022 15:52:25 GMT
Do you know which Conservative-held seat has the smallest white population? Uxbridge does seem very low. Harrow East, which is 36% white (and just 18.6% White British). Oh wow, I didn’t expect it to be that low! And not the most marginal majority. |
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