Post by European Lefty on Apr 26, 2020 13:12:01 GMT
Bristol East
Bristol East runs in a narrow strip down the entire Eastern boundary of Bristol and is under 2.5 miles wide at its widest point. It is the least suburban of the Bristol seats, with no significant suburban areas and bordering almost exclusively other built-up seats. Its western boundary is with the other three Bristol seats, North West, West and South at various points; on its north, it borders the more suburban Filton & Bradley Stoke; its eastern boundary is with the equally suburban Kingswood seat. Long and thin seats like this are often in danger of producing very disparate and polarised constituencies, although this is not too much of a problem here. Given the slightly awkward maths and city boundaries, it is an admirable effort by the boundary commission.
The city’s position on the mouth of the river Avon allowed it to become a major port and industrial centre. Bristol was already a major shipbuilding and manufacturing hub by the 14th century, and by the Tudor era it was the country’s second most important port, trading with Ireland, Iceland and Gascony. In 1497, John Cabot sailed west from Brtisol hoping to reach Asia but instead landing in North America, probably in Newfoundland although the exact location is uncertain. In the 17th and 18th centuries overseas trade grew in importance and Bristol, along with Liverpool, became a major hub in the triangular Atlantic slave trade. In the nineteenth century, the railway came to Bristol thanks to engineer Isambard Kingdom Brunel who built the Great Western Railway linking the West Country to London. His Bristol-Built steamships, the SS Great Britain and Great Western, the former of which is now back in Bristol harbour and open to the public as a museum which is well worth a visit if you’re ever in the area, brought the New World much closer and helped increase Bristol’s importance as a port.
Bristol also has a long history of liberal and non-conformist thought. Not only did its status as a port open it to trade and immigration from all over Europe, but John Wesley opened the first Methodist chapel in the city in 1739. In 1831, the people of Bristol rioted in Queen's Square in protest at the House of Lords' rejection of the reform act at its second reading. In 1963, the Bristol Omnibus company was refusing to hire black or Asian bus crews and discrimination in many areas, including employment and housing, was sadly commonplace in the UK at the time. Led by youth worker Paul Stephenson and the West Indian Development Council, residents boycotted Bristol buses for four months. The boycott drew national attention and was endorsed by several prominent politicians including the High Commissioner of Trinidad and Tobago. The boycott was successful not only in persuading the company to drop it discriminatory policies but was also likely instrumental in passing the Race Relations acts of 1965 and 68. Little wonder then, with its history of liberalism, protest and progressivism that this city is such a stronghold for the left in UK politics.
Industry in this seat was certainly plentiful. The Fishponds area to the north contained several brick works, a locomotive works, chocolate and confectionary factories, pottery works, paper manufacturing and printing at various times from 1830s to the 1990s. Eastville was the site of a brickworks and a colliery; coal and fireclay were mined in St George’s until the start of the 20th century and Brislington contained a paint works and a rail link to the Somerset coalfields. Stockwood on the seat’s southern edge has never had much industry. On top of its industry, Hillfield contains the first housing estate in Bristol to be built under the National Housing Scheme, built in 1919. Hillfields still beats both the constituency and the national average for the percentage of households living in socially rented accommodation, although the highest proportion is in Frome Vale Ward. On the pre-2016 boundaries, St George East was the lowest, at 8.36%. Stockwood ward was over 70% owner occupied: overall, the seat was 62.5% owner occupied (roughly in line with the national average), 16% social rented and 19.5% private rented at the last census.
The gradual loss of the city’s and the seat’s industry over the years has certainly had an impact. Managerial, professional and technical jobs are over-represented in the workforce compared to the national average, while manual labourers are under-represented. Most industries employ a proportion of the workforce similar to the national average, the main exceptions being the over-representation of retail; human health and social work; education; construction and manufacturing, and the under-representation of accommodation and food services; admin and support services; and public administration and defence.
This is the 160th most deprived constituency in England, making it more deprived than Wakefield, Leigh and Keighley, and the second most deprived in the city. This comes from most of the seat being slightly on the deprived side, rather than polarisation. St George Troopers Hill ward is mostly comfortably off, and parts of Stockwood ward are actively wealthy (although parts are in England’s most deprived decile), although most of the seat is in the 20%-40% most deprived in England. Deprivation is based on multiple different factors, and this seat does worse than its average in two of them: access to education, skills and training (144th in England) and crime (49th in England). Its average weekly income is almost the same as the national average.
This seat competes with South for the title of most conservative seat in the city, although this is Bristol so that’s worth about the same as identifying the most left-wing seat in Surrey: interesting, but it doesn’t tell us much that’s useful. It had the second lowest remain vote in Bristol, only higher than Bristol South. One key difference is that while South is really a leave seat that was tipped into the remain column by two wards voting over 70% remain, this is a genuinely remain seat, even if its only 53.2%, with most wards running fairly close. It is also a fairly soft-left seat, with a combination of city-centre and living-in-deprivation leftyness.
So, this seat is moderately centre-left, moderately liberal by national standards and moderately conservative by local ones, reasonably but not massively deprived and with a relatively middle-class and commuter labour profile. Politically, it is a reliably Labour seat, although not as monolithically as Bristol West. Its first version was safely Liberal from its creation in 1885 until 1918 when it became marginal, then a Liberal-Labour marginal until 1924, with Labour gaining it in 1923, and finally safe Labour from 1924 until its abolition in 1945. The only exception was 1931, when Labour held on by 429 votes or 1.1%, although given that Labour were reduced to just 52 seats at that election, any win at all indicates a strong Labour performance. It then mostly became Bristol South East which gradually became more and more marginal over its existence. Stafford Cripps, who had served as chancellor from 1947-50 was replaced by left-wing stalwart Tony Benn. After Benn inherited the title Viscount Stangate and became ineligible to sit in the commons, he was disqualified, and won the ensuing by-election in 1961, although he was disqualified, and the seat awarded to his opponent. After renouncing his peerage, he was elected again in 1963. After Bristol East was re-created in 1983, Jonathan Sayeed became the seat’s first Conservative representative, winning by 1789 votes or 3.6%. Jean Corston gained the seat for Labour in 1992 on a 6.8% swing. She retired in 2005, and an 8.6% swing against Labour left new MP Kerry McCarthy with a still healthy 20.7% majority, although this time over the LibDems. This was cut to 8.3% over the Tories in 2010, and 8.6% in 2015; that year, Labour, the Conservatives, UKIP, the Greens and the LibDems all kept their deposits. 2019 saw both Labour and the Conservatives lose vote share with the LibDems making the largest gain. McCarthy won 53.1% of the vote and her current majority is 20.7%.
At local level, Frome Vale and Brislington East wards are close between Labour and the Conservatives, Brislington West is close between Labour and the LibDems, Stockwood is comfortably but not safely Conservative and the other wards are reasonably safe for Labour. At a general election, the LibDems’ strength will decrease. Their strongest ward is one of the wealthier wards but was 55% remain, so their strength there will be transferring better; overall, it probably goes more Tory than Labour. Frome Vale is probably a bit stronger for Labour while Stockwood will be more Conservative and is probably the only ward consistently carried by them at general elections.
Overall, this is a fairly strong Labour seat that wasn’t particularly turned off by the Corbyn leadership. The Labour majority here might shrink, but it is highly unlikely to become competitive again in the near future.
Bristol East runs in a narrow strip down the entire Eastern boundary of Bristol and is under 2.5 miles wide at its widest point. It is the least suburban of the Bristol seats, with no significant suburban areas and bordering almost exclusively other built-up seats. Its western boundary is with the other three Bristol seats, North West, West and South at various points; on its north, it borders the more suburban Filton & Bradley Stoke; its eastern boundary is with the equally suburban Kingswood seat. Long and thin seats like this are often in danger of producing very disparate and polarised constituencies, although this is not too much of a problem here. Given the slightly awkward maths and city boundaries, it is an admirable effort by the boundary commission.
The city’s position on the mouth of the river Avon allowed it to become a major port and industrial centre. Bristol was already a major shipbuilding and manufacturing hub by the 14th century, and by the Tudor era it was the country’s second most important port, trading with Ireland, Iceland and Gascony. In 1497, John Cabot sailed west from Brtisol hoping to reach Asia but instead landing in North America, probably in Newfoundland although the exact location is uncertain. In the 17th and 18th centuries overseas trade grew in importance and Bristol, along with Liverpool, became a major hub in the triangular Atlantic slave trade. In the nineteenth century, the railway came to Bristol thanks to engineer Isambard Kingdom Brunel who built the Great Western Railway linking the West Country to London. His Bristol-Built steamships, the SS Great Britain and Great Western, the former of which is now back in Bristol harbour and open to the public as a museum which is well worth a visit if you’re ever in the area, brought the New World much closer and helped increase Bristol’s importance as a port.
Bristol also has a long history of liberal and non-conformist thought. Not only did its status as a port open it to trade and immigration from all over Europe, but John Wesley opened the first Methodist chapel in the city in 1739. In 1831, the people of Bristol rioted in Queen's Square in protest at the House of Lords' rejection of the reform act at its second reading. In 1963, the Bristol Omnibus company was refusing to hire black or Asian bus crews and discrimination in many areas, including employment and housing, was sadly commonplace in the UK at the time. Led by youth worker Paul Stephenson and the West Indian Development Council, residents boycotted Bristol buses for four months. The boycott drew national attention and was endorsed by several prominent politicians including the High Commissioner of Trinidad and Tobago. The boycott was successful not only in persuading the company to drop it discriminatory policies but was also likely instrumental in passing the Race Relations acts of 1965 and 68. Little wonder then, with its history of liberalism, protest and progressivism that this city is such a stronghold for the left in UK politics.
Industry in this seat was certainly plentiful. The Fishponds area to the north contained several brick works, a locomotive works, chocolate and confectionary factories, pottery works, paper manufacturing and printing at various times from 1830s to the 1990s. Eastville was the site of a brickworks and a colliery; coal and fireclay were mined in St George’s until the start of the 20th century and Brislington contained a paint works and a rail link to the Somerset coalfields. Stockwood on the seat’s southern edge has never had much industry. On top of its industry, Hillfield contains the first housing estate in Bristol to be built under the National Housing Scheme, built in 1919. Hillfields still beats both the constituency and the national average for the percentage of households living in socially rented accommodation, although the highest proportion is in Frome Vale Ward. On the pre-2016 boundaries, St George East was the lowest, at 8.36%. Stockwood ward was over 70% owner occupied: overall, the seat was 62.5% owner occupied (roughly in line with the national average), 16% social rented and 19.5% private rented at the last census.
The gradual loss of the city’s and the seat’s industry over the years has certainly had an impact. Managerial, professional and technical jobs are over-represented in the workforce compared to the national average, while manual labourers are under-represented. Most industries employ a proportion of the workforce similar to the national average, the main exceptions being the over-representation of retail; human health and social work; education; construction and manufacturing, and the under-representation of accommodation and food services; admin and support services; and public administration and defence.
This is the 160th most deprived constituency in England, making it more deprived than Wakefield, Leigh and Keighley, and the second most deprived in the city. This comes from most of the seat being slightly on the deprived side, rather than polarisation. St George Troopers Hill ward is mostly comfortably off, and parts of Stockwood ward are actively wealthy (although parts are in England’s most deprived decile), although most of the seat is in the 20%-40% most deprived in England. Deprivation is based on multiple different factors, and this seat does worse than its average in two of them: access to education, skills and training (144th in England) and crime (49th in England). Its average weekly income is almost the same as the national average.
This seat competes with South for the title of most conservative seat in the city, although this is Bristol so that’s worth about the same as identifying the most left-wing seat in Surrey: interesting, but it doesn’t tell us much that’s useful. It had the second lowest remain vote in Bristol, only higher than Bristol South. One key difference is that while South is really a leave seat that was tipped into the remain column by two wards voting over 70% remain, this is a genuinely remain seat, even if its only 53.2%, with most wards running fairly close. It is also a fairly soft-left seat, with a combination of city-centre and living-in-deprivation leftyness.
So, this seat is moderately centre-left, moderately liberal by national standards and moderately conservative by local ones, reasonably but not massively deprived and with a relatively middle-class and commuter labour profile. Politically, it is a reliably Labour seat, although not as monolithically as Bristol West. Its first version was safely Liberal from its creation in 1885 until 1918 when it became marginal, then a Liberal-Labour marginal until 1924, with Labour gaining it in 1923, and finally safe Labour from 1924 until its abolition in 1945. The only exception was 1931, when Labour held on by 429 votes or 1.1%, although given that Labour were reduced to just 52 seats at that election, any win at all indicates a strong Labour performance. It then mostly became Bristol South East which gradually became more and more marginal over its existence. Stafford Cripps, who had served as chancellor from 1947-50 was replaced by left-wing stalwart Tony Benn. After Benn inherited the title Viscount Stangate and became ineligible to sit in the commons, he was disqualified, and won the ensuing by-election in 1961, although he was disqualified, and the seat awarded to his opponent. After renouncing his peerage, he was elected again in 1963. After Bristol East was re-created in 1983, Jonathan Sayeed became the seat’s first Conservative representative, winning by 1789 votes or 3.6%. Jean Corston gained the seat for Labour in 1992 on a 6.8% swing. She retired in 2005, and an 8.6% swing against Labour left new MP Kerry McCarthy with a still healthy 20.7% majority, although this time over the LibDems. This was cut to 8.3% over the Tories in 2010, and 8.6% in 2015; that year, Labour, the Conservatives, UKIP, the Greens and the LibDems all kept their deposits. 2019 saw both Labour and the Conservatives lose vote share with the LibDems making the largest gain. McCarthy won 53.1% of the vote and her current majority is 20.7%.
At local level, Frome Vale and Brislington East wards are close between Labour and the Conservatives, Brislington West is close between Labour and the LibDems, Stockwood is comfortably but not safely Conservative and the other wards are reasonably safe for Labour. At a general election, the LibDems’ strength will decrease. Their strongest ward is one of the wealthier wards but was 55% remain, so their strength there will be transferring better; overall, it probably goes more Tory than Labour. Frome Vale is probably a bit stronger for Labour while Stockwood will be more Conservative and is probably the only ward consistently carried by them at general elections.
Overall, this is a fairly strong Labour seat that wasn’t particularly turned off by the Corbyn leadership. The Labour majority here might shrink, but it is highly unlikely to become competitive again in the near future.
