Post by iang on Apr 25, 2020 15:53:08 GMT
The first thing to say about West Bromwich West is that the name is something of a misnomer – since the transfer of Greets Green ward, the western edge of West Brom itself, from West to East in 1997, this seat actually contains none of West Bromwich. It is actually made up of Wednesbury, Tipton and Oldbury, but it was presumably felt by the Boundary Commission that this would make too much of a mouthful, so it was named after the nearest big town. Curiously so, given that the Borough of Sandwell, aware that it was made up from several UDCs across various small Black Country towns, self consciously chose NOT to call itself West Bromwich. Be that as it may, it creates a seat which even by the standards of the Black Country is very working class, without the leavening of middle-class properties that Great Barr gives to its East counterpart, or Bearwood to Warley. Wednesbury is perhaps the nearest the seat has to a middle-class fringe – at least, Wednesbury North was the only ward in the constituency the Conservatives could reliably win more often that not, at least until the last decade.
Oldbury is probably the smallest of the three towns, but is also the civic centre, where the council house is situated, brand new and already leaking when I sat in it. It also houses the main Borough library, named after Jack Judge, one of the writers of the First World War marching song, “It’s a long way to Tipperary”. Wednesbury is the highest point of the seat, as befits somewhere named after the worship of Woden, and probably the main shopping area. Tipton, part of which was incorporated into Dudley at the creation of the Borough of Sandwell, features a statue of William Perry, the “Tipton Slasher”, a bare-knuckle boxer from the nineteenth century, and the Tipton Sports Academy where most election counts in Sandwell are held.
West is significantly “whiter” than East. It is 77% white (rounded figures), 15% Asian, 5% black., and therefore closer, whilst still below, both the regional and national average. Like East though, the Asian population is more Indian than Pakistani by heritage, reflected in the religious background of residents – 7% Sikh and 2% Hindu, compared to 6% Muslim, so again, not as marked a difference as in East. The most significant statistic perhaps is levels of qualification – West Bromwich West is the sixth highest constituency in the country for no qualifications at all, at 36.6% almost 15% above the national average. Conversely, and unsurprisingly, Level 4 qualifications at just 13% leave the constituency ranked at 570th. This is a very working-class constituency, with “elementary occupations” the biggest single category of employment, at 15%, followed by process, plant and machine operative at 13.8%, the 7th highest such constituency in the country, proving that the Black Country manufacturing traditions are not entirely dead. On the other hand, and once again unsurprisingly, managerial and professional occupations are low, both at less than 10%, and down in the deep 500s in terms of Parliamentary constituencies. Once again, this is a very working-class seat.
It is also in many areas a very deprived one. Tipton (the wards of Great Bridge, Princes End and Tipton Green) has exactly half its LSOAs in the most deprived 10% in England. Wednesbury (although Wednesbury figures include Friar Park which is in West Brom East) has over 60% of its LSOAs in the 20% most deprived in England. Both Wednesbury and Tipton are 81% white – Oldbury Ward has much the most significant BME population in the constituency. These are communities that may be tempted to feel that they have had little gain from government, any government, and consequently may be inclined to look outside their traditional political affiliation. As we shall see, that has been particularly true of Tipton. So this is (much more so than East) a solidly working class, and by urban West Midlands standards at least, predominantly white constituency, traditionally safe Labour, but therefore particularly vulnerable in the circumstances of 2019.
What of the politics? As we know, Sandwell has been monolithically Labour from the beginning of the Coalition years – no ward has elected anything other than a Labour councillor since 2014. There would appear to be nothing here to suggest Labour vulnerability any more than in East. In fact, this is rather less so in some ways than in East. Wednesbury North was for a while the most reliable Conservative ward in the authority, particularly in the time of the popular (if not populist) councillors Bill Archer and Ray Partridge. Wednesbury South could also be won by the Tories in a good year, like 1991 or 2008. The main issues for Labour came in Tipton, and not usually at the hands of the Conservatives. Perhaps what sparked the problems was the arrest in Afghanistan of the so called “Tipton Three” in 2001, who were then imprisoned in Guantanamo Bay, which maybe heightened community tensions. The BNP had already been active in Princes End, and in 2003 were able to win both that ward, and in neighbouring Great Bridge, where the de-selection of long-standing Labour councillor Fred Perry, who had built on his success in tennis and sports wear with a career in local government*, produced a tight three-way split, with Perry’s candidature as an independent splitting the Labour vote and letting the far right in. In 2006, they won in the same two wards and almost in Tipton Green, as well as winning in neighbouring Tividale. The BNP challenge faded almost as quickly as it emerged, their group of four on the Council splitting into two separate groups (shades of the Judean People’s Front), and one of their number losing his place on the council as he had not attended a meeting – any meeting – for six months. Labour won the subsequent by-election. But in 2014, UKIP polled over 20% across the Borough as a whole, winning Princes End and coming close in Great Bridge. This was the last time Labour suffered defeat in a council election in Sandwell to date, but UKIP remained competitive in several West Brom wards over the next two years before their challenge faded too. The EU Referendum was a very convincing win for Leave – 69% to 31%, and if one statistic should have made Labour worried, it was that one, especially as established MP Adrian Bailey was retiring. The seat was indeed captured by his Conservative namesake Shaun, on an 11% swing, and giving the Conservatives a majority of over 10%.
So as with East – will this prove to be just a blip? Can the Conservatives consolidate their General Election success with gains at local level over the next few years? Will the leadership of Keir Starmer prove more effective at appealing to traditional white working class communities in the West Midlands? The next few years will interesting.
* I’m joking – it wasn’t that Fred Perry
Oldbury is probably the smallest of the three towns, but is also the civic centre, where the council house is situated, brand new and already leaking when I sat in it. It also houses the main Borough library, named after Jack Judge, one of the writers of the First World War marching song, “It’s a long way to Tipperary”. Wednesbury is the highest point of the seat, as befits somewhere named after the worship of Woden, and probably the main shopping area. Tipton, part of which was incorporated into Dudley at the creation of the Borough of Sandwell, features a statue of William Perry, the “Tipton Slasher”, a bare-knuckle boxer from the nineteenth century, and the Tipton Sports Academy where most election counts in Sandwell are held.
West is significantly “whiter” than East. It is 77% white (rounded figures), 15% Asian, 5% black., and therefore closer, whilst still below, both the regional and national average. Like East though, the Asian population is more Indian than Pakistani by heritage, reflected in the religious background of residents – 7% Sikh and 2% Hindu, compared to 6% Muslim, so again, not as marked a difference as in East. The most significant statistic perhaps is levels of qualification – West Bromwich West is the sixth highest constituency in the country for no qualifications at all, at 36.6% almost 15% above the national average. Conversely, and unsurprisingly, Level 4 qualifications at just 13% leave the constituency ranked at 570th. This is a very working-class constituency, with “elementary occupations” the biggest single category of employment, at 15%, followed by process, plant and machine operative at 13.8%, the 7th highest such constituency in the country, proving that the Black Country manufacturing traditions are not entirely dead. On the other hand, and once again unsurprisingly, managerial and professional occupations are low, both at less than 10%, and down in the deep 500s in terms of Parliamentary constituencies. Once again, this is a very working-class seat.
It is also in many areas a very deprived one. Tipton (the wards of Great Bridge, Princes End and Tipton Green) has exactly half its LSOAs in the most deprived 10% in England. Wednesbury (although Wednesbury figures include Friar Park which is in West Brom East) has over 60% of its LSOAs in the 20% most deprived in England. Both Wednesbury and Tipton are 81% white – Oldbury Ward has much the most significant BME population in the constituency. These are communities that may be tempted to feel that they have had little gain from government, any government, and consequently may be inclined to look outside their traditional political affiliation. As we shall see, that has been particularly true of Tipton. So this is (much more so than East) a solidly working class, and by urban West Midlands standards at least, predominantly white constituency, traditionally safe Labour, but therefore particularly vulnerable in the circumstances of 2019.
What of the politics? As we know, Sandwell has been monolithically Labour from the beginning of the Coalition years – no ward has elected anything other than a Labour councillor since 2014. There would appear to be nothing here to suggest Labour vulnerability any more than in East. In fact, this is rather less so in some ways than in East. Wednesbury North was for a while the most reliable Conservative ward in the authority, particularly in the time of the popular (if not populist) councillors Bill Archer and Ray Partridge. Wednesbury South could also be won by the Tories in a good year, like 1991 or 2008. The main issues for Labour came in Tipton, and not usually at the hands of the Conservatives. Perhaps what sparked the problems was the arrest in Afghanistan of the so called “Tipton Three” in 2001, who were then imprisoned in Guantanamo Bay, which maybe heightened community tensions. The BNP had already been active in Princes End, and in 2003 were able to win both that ward, and in neighbouring Great Bridge, where the de-selection of long-standing Labour councillor Fred Perry, who had built on his success in tennis and sports wear with a career in local government*, produced a tight three-way split, with Perry’s candidature as an independent splitting the Labour vote and letting the far right in. In 2006, they won in the same two wards and almost in Tipton Green, as well as winning in neighbouring Tividale. The BNP challenge faded almost as quickly as it emerged, their group of four on the Council splitting into two separate groups (shades of the Judean People’s Front), and one of their number losing his place on the council as he had not attended a meeting – any meeting – for six months. Labour won the subsequent by-election. But in 2014, UKIP polled over 20% across the Borough as a whole, winning Princes End and coming close in Great Bridge. This was the last time Labour suffered defeat in a council election in Sandwell to date, but UKIP remained competitive in several West Brom wards over the next two years before their challenge faded too. The EU Referendum was a very convincing win for Leave – 69% to 31%, and if one statistic should have made Labour worried, it was that one, especially as established MP Adrian Bailey was retiring. The seat was indeed captured by his Conservative namesake Shaun, on an 11% swing, and giving the Conservatives a majority of over 10%.
So as with East – will this prove to be just a blip? Can the Conservatives consolidate their General Election success with gains at local level over the next few years? Will the leadership of Keir Starmer prove more effective at appealing to traditional white working class communities in the West Midlands? The next few years will interesting.
* I’m joking – it wasn’t that Fred Perry
