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Post by greenhert on Apr 25, 2020 12:51:49 GMT
North East Derbyshire was created in 1885, although its boundaries have changed to the point where it should now be called North Derbyshire, and it is not coterminous with the North East Derbyshire district either.
North East Derbyshire's main settlements are Clay Cross, Dronfield, Killamarsh and Staveley. It surrounds Chesterfield, is just south of Sheffield and some of the villages on its western edge give access to the Peak District. Clay Cross is an ex-mining town which was the scene of a rebellion by Labour councillors in 1972 against attempts to impose a national rise in council rents under the Housing Finance Act, resulting in them being disqualified; this happened just before Clay Cross UDC was absorbed into North East Derbyshire District Council. Dronfield is becoming an increasingly popular commuter town for middle of the road Sheffield commuters wanting to get away from the hustle and bustle of the city when not in the office; nearby is the ground of Sheffield FC, the world's oldest football club, founded in 1857. That said, Dronfield houses the offices of several construction companies so not everyone there is a commuter. Killamarsh and Staveley are both ex-mining towns although Staveley also had substantial chemical manufacturing which has now ceased. The demographics of North East Derbyshire are fairly average for the East Midlands in most respects (except ethnicity; it is 98% white) although the 2021 census will show a significant increase in qualification levels of its residents within the last decade.
North East Derbyshire first elected a Labour MP as early as January 1910, although the MP in question, William Harvey, was first elected as a Liberal in 1907. From 1922 to 2017 Labour's hold was interrupted only once, by the Conservatives' Jardine Whyte from 1931-35. From 2010 onwards Labour's grip started to fray; it experienced an 8.6% swing from Labour to Conservative and in 2015 Natascha Engel's majority was reduced to just 1,883, a lower Labour majority than in 1983. Ms Engel's support for a fracking plan in the constituency, as well as demographic change in Dronfield in particular, cost her the seat in 2017 to the Conservatives' Lee Rowley, who had contested it in 2015. Mr Rowley strongly opposed fracking in the constituency and continues to do so, despite the Conservatives having supported fracking for years. He increased his majority to as high as 12,876 in 2019, and the decline of the old Labour vote now makes this a safe Conservative seat, especially when combined with the fact that the Conservatives captured North East Derbyshire DC outright in 2019 with a gain of 13 seats from Labour, at a time when they lost over 1,800 council seats nationally and mainly in their southern heartlands.
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Post by Merseymike on Apr 25, 2020 13:04:10 GMT
I think what needs to be emphasised is that 'gentrification' can be a very specific affair, affecting different places in different ways. This seat has become more middle class, but it attracts the sort of middle class voter who is likely to be aiming to escape from the cities, works in the commercial sector and votes Conservative. Whereas middle class left-wing voters are much more likely to choose to live in Sheffield Hallam or one of the Central wards which were once Conservative
I would agree that this is likely to move permanently into the Conservative camp (and it hasn't been that sudden either - Dronfield has been electing Tory councillors for some time) - and its the old Labour ex-mining areas where the change is likely to be the most obvious
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Post by matureleft on Apr 25, 2020 14:56:11 GMT
I think what needs to be emphasised is that 'gentrification' can be a very specific affair, affecting different places in different ways. This seat has become more middle class, but it attracts the sort of middle class voter who is likely to be aiming to escape from the cities, works in the commercial sector and votes Conservative. Whereas middle class left-wing voters are much more likely to choose to live in Sheffield Hallam or one of the Central wards which were once Conservative I would agree that this is likely to move permanently into the Conservative camp (and it hasn't been that sudden either - Dronfield has been electing Tory councillors for some time) - and its the old Labour ex-mining areas where the change is likely to be the most obvious A bit more nuance. High Peak is trending Labour and Hathersage, a High Peak village on the western edge of Sheffield, has started to return Labour councillors. That constituency has also seen middle class, former city, escapers either, in Hathersage, from Sheffield or, in say New Mills, from Manchester. The type of lifestyle and landscape on offer is different. North East Derbyshire doesn't attract the arty, "green" folk that are drawn to High Peak. Many of the large, former mining, villages of North East Derbyshire offer reasonably cheap housing but with a (less dramatic and sometimes scarred) rural setting.
As you say, Dronfield has been non-Labour for quite a while.
I'd make the same remark as I've made about some other East Midlands seats. Let's see how this goes when Brexit has played out. The voters here aren't "baked in" Tories and I'd expect their sympathies to be fickle.
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Post by yellowperil on Apr 25, 2020 15:14:27 GMT
I think what needs to be emphasised is that 'gentrification' can be a very specific affair, affecting different places in different ways. This seat has become more middle class, but it attracts the sort of middle class voter who is likely to be aiming to escape from the cities, works in the commercial sector and votes Conservative. Whereas middle class left-wing voters are much more likely to choose to live in Sheffield Hallam or one of the Central wards which were once Conservative I would agree that this is likely to move permanently into the Conservative camp (and it hasn't been that sudden either - Dronfield has been electing Tory councillors for some time) - and its the old Labour ex-mining areas where the change is likely to be the most obvious A bit more nuance. High Peak is trending Labour and Hathersage, a High Peak village on the western edge of Sheffield, has started to return Labour councillors. That constituency has also seen middle class, former city, escapers either, in Hathersage, from Sheffield or, in say New Mills, from Manchester. The type of lifestyle and landscape on offer is different. North East Derbyshire doesn't attract the arty, "green" folk that are drawn to High Peak. Many of the large, former mining, villages of North East Derbyshire offer reasonably cheap housing but with a (less dramatic and sometimes scarred) rural setting.
As you say, Dronfield has been non-Labour for quite a while.
I'd make the same remark as I've made about some other East Midlands seats. Let's see how this goes when Brexit has played out. The voters here aren't "baked in" Tories and I'd expect their sympathies to be fickle.
Are you saying they're half-baked? |
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Post by warofdreams on Apr 25, 2020 15:36:01 GMT
North East Derbyshire was created in 1885, although its boundaries have changed to the point where it should now be called North Derbyshire, and it is not coterminous with the North East Derbyshire district either. North East Derbyshire's main settlements are Clay Cross, Dronfield, Killamarsh and Staveley. It surrounds Chesterfield, is just south of Sheffield and some of the villages on its western edge give access to the Peak District. Clay Cross is an ex-mining town which was the scene of a rebellion by Labour councillors in 1972 against attempts to impose a national rise in council rents under the Housing Finance Act, resulting in them being disqualified; this happened just before Clay Cross UDC was absorbed into North East Derbyshire District Council. Dronfield is becoming an increasingly popular commuter town for middle of the road Sheffield commuters wanting to get away from the hustle and bustle of the city when not in the office; nearby is the ground of Sheffield FC, the world's oldest football club, founded in 1857. That said, Dronfield houses the offices of several construction companies so not everyone there is a commuter. Killamarsh and Staveley are both ex-mining towns although Staveley also had substantial chemical manufacturing which has now ceased. The demographics of North East Derbyshire are fairly average for the East Midlands in most respects (except ethnicity; it is 98% white) although the 2021 census will show a significant increase in qualification levels of its residents within the last decade. North East Derbyshire first elected a Labour MP as early as January 1910, although the MP in question, William Harvey, was first elected as a Liberal in 1907. From 1922 to 2017 Labour's hold was interrupted only once, by the Conservatives' Jardine Whyte from 1931-35. From 2010 onwards Labour's grip started to fray; it experienced an 8.6% swing from Labour to Conservative and in 2015 Natascha Engel's majority was reduced to just 1,883, a lower Labour majority than in 1983. Ms Engel's support for a fracking plan in the constituency, as well as demographic change in Dronfield in particular, cost her the seat in 2017 to the Conservatives' Lee Rowley, who had contested it in 2015. Mr Rowley strongly opposed fracking in the constituency and continues to do so, despite the Conservatives having supported fracking for years. He increased his majority to as high as 12,876 in 2019, and the decline of the old Labour vote now makes this a safe Conservative seat, especially when combined with the fact that the Conservatives captured North East Derbyshire DC outright in 2019 with a gain of 13 seats from Labour, at a time when they lost over 1,800 council seats nationally and mainly in their southern heartlands. A minor point is that the seat doesn't surround Chesterfield; it wraps around the north, west and south (and there's not a whole load in the west to link the north and south together), but Bolsover lies to the east. |
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Post by Merseymike on Apr 25, 2020 16:02:35 GMT
I think what needs to be emphasised is that 'gentrification' can be a very specific affair, affecting different places in different ways. This seat has become more middle class, but it attracts the sort of middle class voter who is likely to be aiming to escape from the cities, works in the commercial sector and votes Conservative. Whereas middle class left-wing voters are much more likely to choose to live in Sheffield Hallam or one of the Central wards which were once Conservative I would agree that this is likely to move permanently into the Conservative camp (and it hasn't been that sudden either - Dronfield has been electing Tory councillors for some time) - and its the old Labour ex-mining areas where the change is likely to be the most obvious A bit more nuance. High Peak is trending Labour and Hathersage, a High Peak village on the western edge of Sheffield, has started to return Labour councillors. That constituency has also seen middle class, former city, escapers either, in Hathersage, from Sheffield or, in say New Mills, from Manchester. The type of lifestyle and landscape on offer is different. North East Derbyshire doesn't attract the arty, "green" folk that are drawn to High Peak. Many of the large, former mining, villages of North East Derbyshire offer reasonably cheap housing but with a (less dramatic and sometimes scarred) rural setting. As you say, Dronfield has been non-Labour for quite a while.
I'd make the same remark as I've made about some other East Midlands seats. Let's see how this goes when Brexit has played out. The voters here aren't "baked in" Tories and I'd expect their sympathies to be fickle.
Oh, High Peak attracts the knit your own yogurt brigade. Probably potential for the Greens under a different electoral system |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,908
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Post by YL on Apr 25, 2020 16:11:23 GMT
North East Derbyshire was created in 1885, although its boundaries have changed to the point where it should now be called North Derbyshire, and it is not coterminous with the North East Derbyshire district either. It is not the best name, but "North Derbyshire" would not be an improvement. It doesn't contain the northernmost parts of the county any more than it contains the north-easternmost. I'd probably call it "Clay Cross & Dronfield". |
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jamie
Top Poster
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Post by jamie on Apr 25, 2020 16:12:12 GMT
Its probably worth pointing out that the Conservatives have made much more progress in the northern part of the constituency than the southern part. While towns such as Dronfield, Eckington and Killamarsh saw substantial increases in the Conservative vote from 2015 to 2017, towns such as Clay Cross actually saw very little swing in their favour. While the Conservatives will have made big progress in both parts in 2019, there will still remain substantial differences in voting patterns between the deprived ex coal mining villages on the one hand, and those which have become fairly middle class commuter belt in recent decades (a difference too many commentators often forget).
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Post by matureleft on Apr 25, 2020 17:29:16 GMT
A bit more nuance. High Peak is trending Labour and Hathersage, a High Peak village on the western edge of Sheffield, has started to return Labour councillors. That constituency has also seen middle class, former city, escapers either, in Hathersage, from Sheffield or, in say New Mills, from Manchester. The type of lifestyle and landscape on offer is different. North East Derbyshire doesn't attract the arty, "green" folk that are drawn to High Peak. Many of the large, former mining, villages of North East Derbyshire offer reasonably cheap housing but with a (less dramatic and sometimes scarred) rural setting. As you say, Dronfield has been non-Labour for quite a while.
I'd make the same remark as I've made about some other East Midlands seats. Let's see how this goes when Brexit has played out. The voters here aren't "baked in" Tories and I'd expect their sympathies to be fickle.
Oh, High Peak attracts the knit your own yogurt brigade. Probably potential for the Greens under a different electoral systemYup. They've made progress in Hope Valley. North East Derbyshire isn't that kind of place (although parts of it are pretty and are essentially part of the Peak District). People from roughly the same socio-economic group are moving to both seats, but they seem (sweeping generalisation) to hold rather different cultural perspectives. |
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Post by Robert Waller on May 16, 2021 11:27:02 GMT
2011 Census
Age 65+ 20.9% 99/650
Owner-occupied 71.0% 188/650
Private rented 7.6% 640/650
Social rented 20.1% 216/650
White 98.1% 108 /650
Black 0.2% 510 /650
Asian 0.8% 575/650
Country of birth England 96.2% 4/650
Managerial & professional 29.5%
Routine & Semi-routine 29.6%
Degree level 22.2% 427/650
No qualifications 26.4% 200/650
Students 5.6% 563/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 71.1% 150/573
Private rented 10.5% 571/573
Social rented 18.4% 200/573
White 97.3%
Black 0.4%
Asian 1.0%
Managerial & professional 31.7% 292/573
Routine & Semi-routine 27.1% 177/573
Degree level 27.6% 404/573
No qualifications 19.6% 214/573
General Election 2019: North East Derbyshire
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Lee Rowley 28,897 58.7 +9.5
Labour Chris Peace 16,021 32.6 -10.9
Liberal Democrats Ross Shipman 3,021 6.1 +3.3
Green Frank Adlington-Stringer 1,278 2.6 +1.2
C Majority 12,876 26.1 +20.4
Turnout 49,217 68.0 -1.9
Conservative hold
Swing 10.2 Lab to C
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