Berwick upon Tweed

[jamie]

Berwick upon Tweed

Berwick upon Tweed constituency covers a large stretch of rural communities in northern Northumberland and is one of the largest constituencies in the entire country. The constituency includes a diverse range of settlements, from the border town of Berwick, to rural farming communities, to the Northumberland coalfield. These boundaries have seen little substantial change in over a century. The constituency was originally safely Conservative in the post-war period, but was gained by the Liberals in a 1973 by election on a massive swing. From 1979 onwards, Alan Beith turned this into a safe seat for the Liberals and their successors. While Labour took a distant 2nd in 1997, the Conservatives otherwise retained 2nd place. They significantly narrowed Beith’s majority in 2010, and finally gained the seat in 2015 upon his retirement. The Liberal Democrat vote further unwound in 2017, to the point of Labour taking a distant 2nd place. This was repeated in 2019, with an unusually small decline in the Labour vote and a further decline in the Liberal Democrat vote.

Beginning in the north, we find the eponymous town of Berwick. The northernmost town in England, Berwick is located on both sides of the river Tweed, which otherwise forms the border between England and Scotland. Owing to its location, Berwick was once disputed territory between England and Scotland, and there was even suggestion a few years ago for the SNP to stand a candidate in the constituency. Berwick has long been one of the more Liberal Democrat friendly parts of the constituency, but will have voted comfortably Conservative in the past couple of elections. Despite significant deprivation, Labour get only a modest vote share, at least in part due to the cannibalisation of their vote by the Liberal Democrats.

The next part of the constituency comprises the numerous farming and tourism orientated communities that form the core of Berwick upon Tweed constituency. In the west, these very sparse farming communities stretch from Norham in the north, to Wooler in the middle (and nearby Chillingham Castle), then Rothbury in the south. Norham and nearby communities have traditionally been Liberal Democrat leaning, Rothbury has been more competitive, while Wooler has long been one of the most Conservative parts of the constituency. All these towns and villages will have been reliably Conservative in the past 2 election cycles. Though parts around Wooler are not exactly wealthy, Labour have little support here owing to their agricultural nature.

On the coast, the constituency includes a number of tourist destinations. These include Bamburgh (famous for its castle), Lindisfarne/Holy Island, as well as Beadnell and Seahouses. These communities have proved competitive at different council elections, but will vote comfortably Conservative nationally. Labour are stronger here than out west, but this is very relative. The constituency then takes in Alnwick, its 2nd largest town. The town is well known for Alnwick Castle, the filming location for Hogwarts from the Harry Potter film series. Like the other communities already mentioned, Alnwick has been competitive between the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives in the past, but will have voted Conservative in the 2017 and 2019 general elections.

Finally, the constituency takes in the northernmost part of the Northumberland coalfield. Immediately south of Alnwick is Shilbottle, a small former coal mining village that is nonetheless rather isolated from the rest of the coalfield. It is notably the most Conservative inclined part of the coalfield in this constituency. On the coast is the port of Amble. Once an economic hub of the area, it has faced significant problems since the closure of the coal mining industry in the mid-20th century. While western Amble is more middle class and comfortably Conservative, the rest of Amble is heavily deprived and Labour voting. Similar support for Labour can be found in the villages of Hadston and Widdrington Station. Finally, on the edge of the constituency is Lynemouth. Easily the most deprived part of the constituency, the forming mining village is strongly Labour.

Overall, Berwick upon Tweed is a safe Conservative constituency. While the Liberal Democrats long held the constituency under Alan Beith, the combination of the loss of his incumbency, the woes of the national party, and the strongly pro-remain message have led to the party falling into 3rd place. The Liberal Democrat vote was traditionally rather spread out around the constituency, albeit with some concentration in Berwick and weakness in some rural areas. The Conservative vote, particularly in the past 2 elections, is stronger in the rural areas in the centre of the constituency. Conversely, the Labour vote is very heavily concentrated in the former coal mining communities in the south. The Conservatives will have won all areas outside the coal mining villages in 2017, and may have proved competitive even there in 2019. They look unlikely to be challenged for the foreseeable future, as the Liberal Democrats seem unable to reassemble their former voting coalition while Labour lack any serious support outside their coal mining heartlands.

[bjornhattan]

Apr 25, 2020 11:38:50 GMT jamie said:

Berwick upon Tweed

Berwick upon Tweed constituency covers a large stretch of rural communities in northern Northumberland. The constituency includes a diverse range of settlements, from the border town of Berwick, to rural farming communities, to the Northumberland coalfield. These boundaries have seen little substantial change in over a century. The constituency was originally safely Conservative in the post-war period, but was gained by the Liberals in a 1973 by election on a massive swing. From 1979 onwards, Alan Beith turned this into a safe seat for the Liberals and their successors. While Labour took a distant 2nd in 1997, the Conservatives otherwise retained 2nd place. They significantly narrowed Beith’s majority in 2010, and finally gained the seat in 2015 upon his retirement. The Liberal Democrat vote further unwound in 2017, to the point of Labour taking a distant 2nd place. This was repeated in 2019, with an unusually small decline in the Labour vote and a further decline in the Liberal Democrat vote.

Beginning in the north, we find the eponymous town of Berwick. The northernmost town in England, Berwick is located on both sides of the river Tweed, which otherwise forms the border between England and Scotland. Owing to its location, Berwick was once disputed territory between England and Scotland, and there was even suggestion a few years ago for the SNP to stand a candidate in the constituency. Berwick has long been one of the more Liberal Democrat friendly parts of the constituency, but will have voted comfortably Conservative in the past couple of elections. Despite significant deprivation, Labour get only a modest vote share, at least in part due to the cannibalisation of their vote by the Liberal Democrats.

The next part of the constituency comprises the numerous farming and tourism orientated communities that form the core of Berwick upon Tweed constituency. In the west, these farming communities stretch from Norham in the north, to Wooler in the middle, then Rothbury in the south. Norham and nearby communities have traditionally been Liberal Democrat leaning, Rothbury has been more competitive, while Wooler has long been one of the most Conservative parts of the constituency. All these towns and villages will have been reliably Conservative in the past 2 election cycles. Though parts around Wooler are not exactly wealthy, Labour have little support here owing to their agricultural nature.

On the coast, the constituency includes a number of tourist destinations. These include Bamburgh, Beadnell, Lindisfarne and Seahouses. These communities have proved competitive at different council elections, but will vote comfortably Conservative nationally. Labour are stronger here than out west, but this is very relative. The constituency then takes in Alnwick, its 2nd largest town. The town is well known for Alnwick Castle, the filming location for Hogwarts from the Harry Potter film series. Like the other communities already mentioned, Alnwick has been competitive between the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives in the past, but will have voted Conservative in the 2017 and 2019 general elections.

Finally, the constituency takes in the northernmost part of the Northumberland coalfield. Immediately south of Alnwick is Shilbottle, a small former coal mining village that is nonetheless rather isolated from the rest of the coalfield. It is notably the most Conservative inclined part of the coalfield in this constituency. On the coast is the port of Amble. Once an economic hub of the area, it has faced significant problems since the closure of the coal mining industry in the mid-20th century. While western Amble is more middle class and comfortably Conservative, the rest of Amble is heavily deprived and Labour voting. Similar support for Labour can be found in the villages of Hadston and Widdrington Station. Finally, on the edge of the constituency is Lynemouth. Easily the most deprived part of the constituency, the forming mining village is strongly Labour.

Overall, Berwick upon Tweed is a safe Conservative constituency. While the Liberal Democrats long held the constituency under Alan Beith, the combination of the loss of his incumbency, the woes of the national party, and the strongly pro-remain message have led to the party falling into 3rd place. The Liberal Democrat vote was traditionally rather spread out around the constituency, albeit with some concentration in Berwick and weakness in some rural areas. The Conservative vote, particularly in the past 2 elections, is stronger in the rural areas in the centre of the constituency. Conversely, the Labour vote is very heavily concentrated in the former coal mining communities in the south. The Conservatives will have won all areas outside the coal mining villages in 2017, and may have proved competitive even there in 2019. They look unlikely to be challenged for the foreseeable future, as the Liberal Democrats seem unable to reassemble their former voting coalition while Labour lack any serious support outside their coal mining heartlands.

During the time when this seat was marginal between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, who do you think would have won in the likes of Lynemouth? Those areas seem very far from natural Lib Dem territory, but equally if there was a lot of tactical voting, they might have been able to win there.

[jamie]

Apr 25, 2020 11:44:41 GMT bjornhattan said:

During the time when this seat was marginal between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, who do you think would have won in the likes of Lynemouth? Those areas seem very far from natural Lib Dem territory, but equally if there was a lot of tactical voting, they might have been able to win there.

I don't want to sound more certain than i actually am, but i would think the Liberal Democrats on a rather low vote share. Its not natural Lib Dem territory as you say, but pre-coalition they used to be able to win these sorts of areas on the basis of personal votes and in this case being the non-Conservative option. There is some difficulty in working out where the Conservative/Lib Dem vote was distributed, as council election results here are heavily influenced by personal votes eg; neighbouring and demographically similar wards can vote 80% for different parties, the same ward being a landslide for different parties from one election to the next, while even the independent vote breaks very differently in different wards. However, I can quite confidently state the Labour vote is ridiculously concentrated in the coal mining section and is almost completely derisory outside it (both in absolute terms and relative to similar areas outside the constituency). 

[iang]

Alnwick also has a pretty impressive second hand book shop, located in an old railway station. Several other castles to visit in the area as well as Alnwick too.

[jamie]

Apr 25, 2020 17:37:00 GMT iang said:

Alnwick also has a pretty impressive second hand book shop, located in an old railway station. Several other castles to visit in the area as well as Alnwick too.

At my primary school 3 out the 4 school ‘houses’ were named after Northumberland castles. Years later, I was surprised to learn how tiny Bamburgh and Chillingham are, and even Alnwick isn’t that big compared to the likes of Durham. 

[Deleted]

Apr 25, 2020 18:29:44 GMT jamie said:

Apr 25, 2020 17:37:00 GMT iang said:

Alnwick also has a pretty impressive second hand book shop, located in an old railway station. Several other castles to visit in the area as well as Alnwick too.

At my primary school 3 out the 4 school ‘houses’ were named after Northumberland castles. Years later, I was surprised to learn how tiny Bamburgh and Chillingham are, and even Alnwick isn’t that big compared to the likes of Durham. 

Blimey mate, you’re hard to impress😉

[jamie]

Apr 26, 2020 8:42:31 GMT @johnyorks said:

Apr 25, 2020 18:29:44 GMT jamie said:

At my primary school 3 out the 4 school ‘houses’ were named after Northumberland castles. Years later, I was surprised to learn how tiny Bamburgh and Chillingham are, and even Alnwick isn’t that big compared to the likes of Durham. 

Blimey mate, you’re hard to impress😉

I may need to qualify that by saying I meant the population of the settlements, not the castles themselves! 

[finsobruce]

Apr 26, 2020 8:42:31 GMT @johnyorks said:

Apr 25, 2020 18:29:44 GMT jamie said:

At my primary school 3 out the 4 school ‘houses’ were named after Northumberland castles. Years later, I was surprised to learn how tiny Bamburgh and Chillingham are, and even Alnwick isn’t that big compared to the likes of Durham. 

Blimey mate, you’re hard to impress😉

*Castle Envy*

[heslingtonian]

Get the feeling the historic Lib Dem vote here was largely a Beith vote than a Liberal Democrat vote as Sir Alan was clearly personally popular and an assiduous MP. Similar to Westmoreland & Lonsdale is with Tim Farron.

[greenhert]

Its core Liberal/Liberal Democrat vote is greater than most though, and the same goes for Westmoreland & Lonsdale.

[yellowperil]

Apr 26, 2020 14:33:39 GMT greenhert said:

Its core Liberal/Liberal Democrat vote is greater than most though, and the same goes for Westmoreland & Lonsdale.

Indeed it has to have been once in all such places, or how did Beith (or Faron, or Norman Lamb, or Paddy Ashdown,say) win in the first place?

Once in, the quality of the serving MP can do the rest, but however good a campaigner the candidate is, you need a break to move from a distant prospect to actually winning, even if it takes a number of goes.  Sometimes there is a local circumstance to provide an opportunity, and more commonly it requires years of damned hard work, but even that's not enough unless there's something there to work with in the first place.

[Robert Waller]

2011 Census

Age 65+ 22.1% 54/650
Owner-occupied 62.7% 436/650
Private rented 16.5% 210/650
Social rented 17.5% 281/650
White 98.7% 35/650
Black 0.2% 548/650
Asian 0.6% 617/650
Managerial & professional 29.8%
Routine & Semi-routine 29.1%
Degree level 25.9% 318/650
No qualifications 24.0% 290/650
Students 4.8% 644/650


2021 Census

Owner occupied 64.3% 328/573
Private rented 18.9% 247/573
Social rented 16.8% 224/573
White 98.4%
Black 0.2%
Asian 0.5%
Managerial & professional 30.9% 318/573
Routine & Semi-routine 26.1% 212/573
Degree level 31.3% 299/573
No qualifications 18.1% 268/573






General Election 2019: Berwick-upon-Tweed

Party Candidate Votes % ±%

Conservative Anne-Marie Trevelyan 23,947 56.9 +4.4
Labour Trish Williams 9,112 21.6 -2.9
Liberal Democrats Tom Hancock 7,656 18.2 -2.9
Green Thomas Stewart 1,394 3.3 +1.4

C Majority 14,835 35.3 +7.4

Turnout 42,109 70.3 -1.5

Conservative hold
Swing 3.7 LD to C, 3.7 Lab to C

[matureleft]

There is a history of Liberal sympathy in the seat. My family (strongly Tory and particularly mistrustful of Liberals "He wears his hat like a Liberal" was one saying!) lived up there. A Liberal gain in 1935.

[andrew111]

Apr 26, 2020 14:33:39 GMT greenhert said:

Its core Liberal/Liberal Democrat vote is greater than most though, and the same goes for Westmoreland & Lonsdale.

It might be won again by the Lib Dems in a by-election, but I think my Party looks a bit metropolitan these days to be gaining seats like this in a General Election.

Westmoreland and Lonsdale is different in that the Lib Dems have a stranglehold on the local council. Now Farron has gone back to being a constituency MP he should be able to hold it, but whether it could be passed on I don't know.

[bjornhattan]

Jun 5, 2021 11:28:28 GMT andrew111 said:

Apr 26, 2020 14:33:39 GMT greenhert said:

Its core Liberal/Liberal Democrat vote is greater than most though, and the same goes for Westmoreland & Lonsdale.

It might be won again by the Lib Dems in a by-election, but I think my Party looks a bit metropolitan these days to be gaining seats like this in a General Election.

Westmoreland and Lonsdale is different in that the Lib Dems have a stranglehold on the local council. Now Farron has gone back to being a constituency MP he should be able to hold it, but whether it could be passed on I don't know.

Boundary changes here will be important - this constituency is undersized and needs to gain quite a significant number of electors. The most likely place for these to come from is Morpeth - which has good links to Berwick and Alnwick along the A1 and railway line. That would suit your party well - Morpeth is a fairly middle class market town with plenty of commuters, which elected mostly Lib Dem councillors until fairly recently.

On the other hand, a recent review proposed a "Berwick and Ashington" constituency. The addition of Ashington would give Labour a clear second place here (though probably no more than that), and so would end any hopes of a liberal revival. I don't think that configuration is likely though - particularly since there is no reduction in the number of MPs and thus constituencies don't have to become quite so large this time.

[jamie]

Jun 5, 2021 11:49:00 GMT bjornhattan said:

Jun 5, 2021 11:28:28 GMT andrew111 said:

It might be won again by the Lib Dems in a by-election, but I think my Party looks a bit metropolitan these days to be gaining seats like this in a General Election.

Westmoreland and Lonsdale is different in that the Lib Dems have a stranglehold on the local council. Now Farron has gone back to being a constituency MP he should be able to hold it, but whether it could be passed on I don't know.

Boundary changes here will be important - this constituency is undersized and needs to gain quite a significant number of electors. The most likely place for these to come from is Morpeth - which has good links to Berwick and Alnwick along the A1 and railway line. That would suit your party well - Morpeth is a fairly middle class market town with plenty of commuters, which elected mostly Lib Dem councillors until fairly recently.

On the other hand, a recent review proposed a "Berwick and Ashington" constituency. The addition of Ashington would give Labour a clear second place here (though probably no more than that), and so would end any hopes of a liberal revival. I don't think that configuration is likely though - particularly since there is no reduction in the number of MPs and thus constituencies don't have to become quite so large this time.

Morpeth would probably benefit the Lib Dems, but worth noting that their local machine has collapsed there and in 2021 they couldn't even nominate a full slate of candidates in wards they came 1st in at the town council elections in 2017. More broadly, the Lib Dem organisation across the constituency has deteriorated so much that I don't think they'd have much chance in a by-election these days. Case in point, they couldn't even beat Labour in the 2021 council elections within the constituency which says a lot given the complete irrelevance of Labour in most of the constituency.

Berwick and Ashington may well have voted Labour in 2017, though as you infer it would be pretty safely Conservative at the last election and would likely be too big for the current review. 

[michaelarden]

Jan 28, 2021 14:23:26 GMT matureleft said:

There is a history of Liberal sympathy in the seat. My family (strongly Tory and particularly mistrustful of Liberals "He wears his hat like a Liberal" was one saying!) lived up there. A Liberal gain in 1935.

And it was won in a by-election in 1945 by a certain William Beveridge.

[Pete Whitehead]

2019 Notional results on new boundaries - Berwick & Morpeth

Con	28407	55.3%
Lab	12121	23.6%
LD	8307	16.2%
Grn	1729	3.4%
BxP	726	1.4%
Oth	46	0.1%
Majority	16286	31.7%