Filton and Bradley Stoke
Apr 23, 2020 20:41:35 GMT
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Post by loderingo on Apr 23, 2020 20:41:35 GMT
Filton and Bradley Stoke was created in 2010 as the 11th seat in CUBA (the county that used to be Avon). Like many new seats it somewhat gives the impression of being a group of wards leftover from other seats with parts coming from Bristol North West, Kingswood and Northavon (renamed to Thornbury and Yate). Nevertheless all of the seat's wards are within the South Gloucestershire UA.
While the seat may lack some coherence it is certainly not short of transport links with 4 motorways within its boundaries (M4, M5, M32, M49), with the M48 just outside, as well as the Bristol ring road and the busy A38. It also has a major train junction where the lines to Bristol, London and South Wales meet the local Henbury loop line in a 4 way junction and is also the site of the former Filton airport (more on that later).
We can divide the seat's wards into 3 distinct groups.
The first part consists of wards that could (and should) be in Bristol. Like many cities, Bristol constantly expanded its boundaries but then stopped during the 20th Century leaving many suburbs on the north and east sides within South Gloucestershire. Starting in the east, Staple Hill is a somewhat down-at-heal Labour voting suburb, which would be a better fit for the Kingswood seat. Moving north, Downend is a pleasant Tory voting suburb with large houses. Heading west, Frenchay is a smaller suburb, well known for the former hospital, which has now been re-developed. Crossing the M32 we reach the campus of the University of the West England, Bristol's second university and consistently one of the stronger performers out of those universities created in the 1990s. Next to the campus somewhat incongruously is Filton Abbey Wood the headquarters of the Ministry of Defence. Finally across the railway line we reach Filton, a suburb that has seen better days and is Labour voting.
The core of the seat is the large triangle of land bounded by the M5 in the north west the M4 in the north east and the railway (Great Western mainline and then Henbury loop line) to the south. This area has seen and is still seeing a huge amount of development. It is not an understatement that if someone from 40 years ago was taken to this area in say 10 years time, they would struggle to recognise much of it. In the north, Bradley Stoke is the largest settlement in the constituency. The town was built at the end of the 80s/90s housing boom, and this meant that many of the new purchasers ended up in negative equity and the town came to be dubbed "Sadly Broke". Fortunately, the town is now prospering again and votes Tory (but not overwhelmingly so). Stoke Gifford to the south is an older suburb but and is very strongly Conservative. Patchway is an older suburb to the west and votes Labour. To the west of Patchway is the Mall at Cribbs Causeway shopping centre, which is ideally placed near the M4 Almondsbury interchange. Cribbs Causeway is actually the name of a road and the closest hamlet is called Catbrain. For some reason the developers decided against the Mall at Catbrain...
To the south of Patchway, a huge amount of new development is taking place. Already being developed is a large estate at Charlton Hayes. To the south of this lies, Filton airport. This private airport was owned by BAE and was the scene of the maiden flight of Concorde. Unfortunately the airport is now surplus to requirements and has been sold off for development. Plans have been put in place for a massive new suburb along the length of the runway to be called Brabazon. This includes plans for a Concorde museum. Separate development plans have been put in place for the land to the south of the runway meaning that within the next 10 years we can expect all the land within "the triangle" to be developed.
The third part of the seat consists of areas to the north of the motorways. In the north east, Winterbourne is a strongly Tory voting village that has ties to Frampton Cotterill in the Thornbury seat. In the West, Almondsbury is a bit more rural but is still a busy village with part of it lying on the A38.
Finally Severn Beach and Pilning are somewhat detached from the rest of the constituency. Severn Beach was a seaside resort but is now hemmed in by the motorways.
Electorally, like many new constituencies, FABS took a while to settle down. Bristol NW and Kingswood were Con-Lab contests, while Northavon was Con-LD. This led to an initial result in 2010 of Con 41%, Lab 26%, LD 25%. In 2015, the LDs collapsed with the main beneficiaries being Con and UKIP giving a result of Con 47%, Lab 27%, UKIP 15%, LD 7%. In 2017, it was UKIP's turn to collapse with the main beneficiaries being Labour giving a result of Con 50%, Lab 42%, LD 6%. In 2019, both main parties fell back only slightly giving the Cons a slightly increased majority of 5,646.
The MP since 2010 has been Jack Lopresti who is married to fellow Tory MP Andrea Jenkyns. This is Labour target seat 59 making it the sort of place Labour have to win to have any chance of governing with other parties. Like neighbouring Thornbury and Yate this seat is estimated to have voted 50/50 in the Brexit referendum.
It is hard to know whether all the extra electorate by 2024 will help the Tories or Labour.
While the seat may lack some coherence it is certainly not short of transport links with 4 motorways within its boundaries (M4, M5, M32, M49), with the M48 just outside, as well as the Bristol ring road and the busy A38. It also has a major train junction where the lines to Bristol, London and South Wales meet the local Henbury loop line in a 4 way junction and is also the site of the former Filton airport (more on that later).
We can divide the seat's wards into 3 distinct groups.
The first part consists of wards that could (and should) be in Bristol. Like many cities, Bristol constantly expanded its boundaries but then stopped during the 20th Century leaving many suburbs on the north and east sides within South Gloucestershire. Starting in the east, Staple Hill is a somewhat down-at-heal Labour voting suburb, which would be a better fit for the Kingswood seat. Moving north, Downend is a pleasant Tory voting suburb with large houses. Heading west, Frenchay is a smaller suburb, well known for the former hospital, which has now been re-developed. Crossing the M32 we reach the campus of the University of the West England, Bristol's second university and consistently one of the stronger performers out of those universities created in the 1990s. Next to the campus somewhat incongruously is Filton Abbey Wood the headquarters of the Ministry of Defence. Finally across the railway line we reach Filton, a suburb that has seen better days and is Labour voting.
The core of the seat is the large triangle of land bounded by the M5 in the north west the M4 in the north east and the railway (Great Western mainline and then Henbury loop line) to the south. This area has seen and is still seeing a huge amount of development. It is not an understatement that if someone from 40 years ago was taken to this area in say 10 years time, they would struggle to recognise much of it. In the north, Bradley Stoke is the largest settlement in the constituency. The town was built at the end of the 80s/90s housing boom, and this meant that many of the new purchasers ended up in negative equity and the town came to be dubbed "Sadly Broke". Fortunately, the town is now prospering again and votes Tory (but not overwhelmingly so). Stoke Gifford to the south is an older suburb but and is very strongly Conservative. Patchway is an older suburb to the west and votes Labour. To the west of Patchway is the Mall at Cribbs Causeway shopping centre, which is ideally placed near the M4 Almondsbury interchange. Cribbs Causeway is actually the name of a road and the closest hamlet is called Catbrain. For some reason the developers decided against the Mall at Catbrain...
To the south of Patchway, a huge amount of new development is taking place. Already being developed is a large estate at Charlton Hayes. To the south of this lies, Filton airport. This private airport was owned by BAE and was the scene of the maiden flight of Concorde. Unfortunately the airport is now surplus to requirements and has been sold off for development. Plans have been put in place for a massive new suburb along the length of the runway to be called Brabazon. This includes plans for a Concorde museum. Separate development plans have been put in place for the land to the south of the runway meaning that within the next 10 years we can expect all the land within "the triangle" to be developed.
The third part of the seat consists of areas to the north of the motorways. In the north east, Winterbourne is a strongly Tory voting village that has ties to Frampton Cotterill in the Thornbury seat. In the West, Almondsbury is a bit more rural but is still a busy village with part of it lying on the A38.
Finally Severn Beach and Pilning are somewhat detached from the rest of the constituency. Severn Beach was a seaside resort but is now hemmed in by the motorways.
Electorally, like many new constituencies, FABS took a while to settle down. Bristol NW and Kingswood were Con-Lab contests, while Northavon was Con-LD. This led to an initial result in 2010 of Con 41%, Lab 26%, LD 25%. In 2015, the LDs collapsed with the main beneficiaries being Con and UKIP giving a result of Con 47%, Lab 27%, UKIP 15%, LD 7%. In 2017, it was UKIP's turn to collapse with the main beneficiaries being Labour giving a result of Con 50%, Lab 42%, LD 6%. In 2019, both main parties fell back only slightly giving the Cons a slightly increased majority of 5,646.
The MP since 2010 has been Jack Lopresti who is married to fellow Tory MP Andrea Jenkyns. This is Labour target seat 59 making it the sort of place Labour have to win to have any chance of governing with other parties. Like neighbouring Thornbury and Yate this seat is estimated to have voted 50/50 in the Brexit referendum.
It is hard to know whether all the extra electorate by 2024 will help the Tories or Labour.
