Post by John Chanin on Apr 23, 2020 9:50:34 GMT
This is Birmingham’s city centre seat, and like most city centres it is cosmopolitan. Unlike most present day cities and large towns, Birmingham was not an important mediaeval town. It grew from a small settlement by a ford over the river Rea with the coming of the industrial revolution. The core of the town spread up the steep hill from the river Rea, to the ridge where the 18th century St Philip’s cathedral, the Town Hall, and the Council House now stand. Halfway up the hill was the market known as the Bull Ring - now there is a huge shopping centre of regional importance there, opened in 2003. Birmingham became a major centre of metalworking and light industry, and a ring of factories and warehouses grew up round the commercial centre. However the postwar decline of industry led to this becoming a ring of dereliction, reinforced by the building of the elevated concrete inner ring road, cutting the city centre off from its hinterland. Meanwhile the rookeries and slums of central Birmingham were cleared in the 1950s and 1960s and the inhabitants rehoused in a string of peripheral estates built on the borders of the city. The original Ladywood parliamentary seat, roughly the size of the current Ladywood ward had declined to an electorate of less than 20,000 by 1970. By the 1980s the city was sadly rundown and very empty. Times have changed. Over the last 25 years there has been a revival. The inner ring road has been largely demolished, the canals that riddle the area have been opened up, the warehouses cleared, and dozens of modern flat blocks built. To the west of the shopping centre is the large complex containing the new Central Library, the Rep theatre, the Symphony Hall, the ICC Conference centre which hosts political party conferences amongst other things, and set back a little, the National Indoor Arena. Broad Street on Friday and Saturday nights is full of scantily dressed young women, and is the same sort of unsophisticated entertainment centre found in all provincial cities. Meanwhile the ring of dereliction is slowly being redeveloped, although there is still some way to go. The Jewellery Quarter to the north has become a very smart residential area, with multiple bars and restaurants. To the east is the campus of Aston University and the new headquarters of Birmingham City University, and much student housing is being built here. To the south, next to the Chinese quarter is the gay village, and the Southside residential development, and to the west is more new private development. As well as the new private flats, quite a lot of which are rented, following purchase by speculators, rather than owner-occupied as the developers no doubt hoped, the city centre contains an incongrous council tower block estate right in the centre next to the NIA. There are two other residential areas. To the south is Lee Bank, with its blocks of ex-council flats, now managed by the Optima co-op. The other residential area is Ladywood proper, on both sides of the western ring road, where the housing is modern low-rise council development, with a few older terraces to the east of the reservoir.
The constituency spreads out more widely into the inner city. South of the centre is Highgate. There are a few old Georgian houses surviving but this is mostly council estate, with a number of tower blocks alongside the Belgrave Middleway (the southern ring road), and the Birmingham Central Mosque. To the east and outside the ring road is Bordesley which climbs up the steep slopes of the Rea Valley through the modern low-rise St Andrews council estate to the Birmingham City football ground perched on top of the hill. At Garrison Circus on the ring road is the real Peaky Blinders pub, the Garrison (now closed). North-east is Nechells, sandwiched between the Aston Expressway (the M6 spur into the city centre) and the river Rea whose valley is lined with industrial estates, and alongside which the main railway line to the East Midlands runs. The centre of Nechells is mainly modern low-rise council housing, with older post-war blocks, including brick towers, closer to the centre at Vauxhall, and concrete point tower blocks overlooking Spaghetti Junction at the north end of the ward which is bounded by the M6. North is Newtown, running from the inner city at St Chads cathedral, across the ring road alongside which there are a series of council tower blocks. North again is an area of modern low-rise council housing, and then Aston, famous for the Villa Park football ground at the north end of the seat. Opposite is the wonderful Jacobean mansion of Aston Hall. The streets of private housing to the west and south west of the football ground consist of old and inter-war terraced houses - this is a solidly Asian Muslim area. North-west is Winson Green, with its well-known prison and the City Hospital, and further out Soho. Mostly this area consists of small terraced housing built for the working classes around 1900. Soho House, the mansion of Matthew Boulton, the famous engineer celebrated on the £50 note, is here, just south of Soho Road. Lastly to the west is the Rotton Park area around Edgbaston reservoir - more small terraced housing interspersed with council estate, and a large new development alongside Icknield Port - a loop on the Birmingham canal.
The whole of this area is solidly Labour, although Aston had Liberal Democrat and Respect councillors, like other asian areas, in the aftermath of the Iraq war, and they are still competitive here. Owner-occupation and the percentage of white residents are the lowest outside London. There is a large black population - long settled and mostly of Caribbean descent, rather than the Africans who predominate in London, particularly in the Winson Green/Soho area. The seat has the 7th highest Caribbean, the 8th highest Chinese, the 11th highest Pakistani, and the 20th highest Sikh population in the country. It has the highest percentage of social housing outside London - there has been little right to buy in the central city, where the property is mostly flats, very different from the peripheral estates. There are many students from all over the world, and the city centre flats are very cosmopolitan. Managerial occupations are high as you would expect in the city centre, but the rest of the seat is very working class. Nationally, despite changes in boundaries over the years, particularly in 1997, it has remained safe for Labour. At the 2019 election it was the 7th safest Labour seat in the country. The current MP is Shabana Mahmood, first elected in 2010 in succession to Clare Short, a lawyer and one of three Birmingham MPs of Kashmiri descent.
Birmingham has new wards. Despite this the Boundary Commission has been keen to minimise changes, although not to the extent of splitting wards as they have done in south Birmingham. However this will be one of the most changed seats. Aston is to be moved out to the Perry Barr seat, and realignment to new ward boundaries loses 7000 voters in the Rotton Park and Winson Green areas, and a further 3000 on the edges of Handsworth. In total some 22,000 voters will be moved out of the seat. In exchange it will gain territory to the east on the other side of the Rea valley . 17,500 solidly muslim electors in Saltley, Washwood Heath and Alum Rock come in from the Hodge Hill seat, plus 7000 more predominantly muslim voters in the west side of Balsall Heath from the Hall Green seat. Although Aston is also predominantly muslim, these changes will make this close to a muslim majority seat. This will not affect its ultra-safe Labour status, unless there is a reaction among muslim voters like that following the Iraq war.
Census data: Owner-occupied 30% (563/573 in England & Wales), private rented 30% (37th), social rented 38% (10th).
:White 27%, Black 23%, Sth Asian 33%, Mixed 6%, Other 11%
: Managerial & professional 32% (366th), Routine & Semi-routine 38% (83rd)
: Degree 25% (314th), Minimal qualifications 38% (226th)
: Students 19% (17th), Over 65: 7% (567th)
: Muslim 31% (10th), Sikh 5% (20th)
The constituency spreads out more widely into the inner city. South of the centre is Highgate. There are a few old Georgian houses surviving but this is mostly council estate, with a number of tower blocks alongside the Belgrave Middleway (the southern ring road), and the Birmingham Central Mosque. To the east and outside the ring road is Bordesley which climbs up the steep slopes of the Rea Valley through the modern low-rise St Andrews council estate to the Birmingham City football ground perched on top of the hill. At Garrison Circus on the ring road is the real Peaky Blinders pub, the Garrison (now closed). North-east is Nechells, sandwiched between the Aston Expressway (the M6 spur into the city centre) and the river Rea whose valley is lined with industrial estates, and alongside which the main railway line to the East Midlands runs. The centre of Nechells is mainly modern low-rise council housing, with older post-war blocks, including brick towers, closer to the centre at Vauxhall, and concrete point tower blocks overlooking Spaghetti Junction at the north end of the ward which is bounded by the M6. North is Newtown, running from the inner city at St Chads cathedral, across the ring road alongside which there are a series of council tower blocks. North again is an area of modern low-rise council housing, and then Aston, famous for the Villa Park football ground at the north end of the seat. Opposite is the wonderful Jacobean mansion of Aston Hall. The streets of private housing to the west and south west of the football ground consist of old and inter-war terraced houses - this is a solidly Asian Muslim area. North-west is Winson Green, with its well-known prison and the City Hospital, and further out Soho. Mostly this area consists of small terraced housing built for the working classes around 1900. Soho House, the mansion of Matthew Boulton, the famous engineer celebrated on the £50 note, is here, just south of Soho Road. Lastly to the west is the Rotton Park area around Edgbaston reservoir - more small terraced housing interspersed with council estate, and a large new development alongside Icknield Port - a loop on the Birmingham canal.
The whole of this area is solidly Labour, although Aston had Liberal Democrat and Respect councillors, like other asian areas, in the aftermath of the Iraq war, and they are still competitive here. Owner-occupation and the percentage of white residents are the lowest outside London. There is a large black population - long settled and mostly of Caribbean descent, rather than the Africans who predominate in London, particularly in the Winson Green/Soho area. The seat has the 7th highest Caribbean, the 8th highest Chinese, the 11th highest Pakistani, and the 20th highest Sikh population in the country. It has the highest percentage of social housing outside London - there has been little right to buy in the central city, where the property is mostly flats, very different from the peripheral estates. There are many students from all over the world, and the city centre flats are very cosmopolitan. Managerial occupations are high as you would expect in the city centre, but the rest of the seat is very working class. Nationally, despite changes in boundaries over the years, particularly in 1997, it has remained safe for Labour. At the 2019 election it was the 7th safest Labour seat in the country. The current MP is Shabana Mahmood, first elected in 2010 in succession to Clare Short, a lawyer and one of three Birmingham MPs of Kashmiri descent.
Birmingham has new wards. Despite this the Boundary Commission has been keen to minimise changes, although not to the extent of splitting wards as they have done in south Birmingham. However this will be one of the most changed seats. Aston is to be moved out to the Perry Barr seat, and realignment to new ward boundaries loses 7000 voters in the Rotton Park and Winson Green areas, and a further 3000 on the edges of Handsworth. In total some 22,000 voters will be moved out of the seat. In exchange it will gain territory to the east on the other side of the Rea valley . 17,500 solidly muslim electors in Saltley, Washwood Heath and Alum Rock come in from the Hodge Hill seat, plus 7000 more predominantly muslim voters in the west side of Balsall Heath from the Hall Green seat. Although Aston is also predominantly muslim, these changes will make this close to a muslim majority seat. This will not affect its ultra-safe Labour status, unless there is a reaction among muslim voters like that following the Iraq war.
Census data: Owner-occupied 30% (563/573 in England & Wales), private rented 30% (37th), social rented 38% (10th).
:White 27%, Black 23%, Sth Asian 33%, Mixed 6%, Other 11%
: Managerial & professional 32% (366th), Routine & Semi-routine 38% (83rd)
: Degree 25% (314th), Minimal qualifications 38% (226th)
: Students 19% (17th), Over 65: 7% (567th)
: Muslim 31% (10th), Sikh 5% (20th)
2010 | % | 2015 | % | 2017 | % | 2019 | % | |
Labour | 19,950 | 55.7% | 26,444 | 73.6% | 34,166 | 82.7% | 33,355 | 79.2% |
Conservative | 4,277 | 11.9% | 4,576 | 12.7% | 5,452 | 13.2% | 4,773 | 11.3% |
Liberal Democrat | 9,845 | 27.5% | 1,374 | 3.8% | 1,156 | 2.8% | 2,228 | 5.3% |
UKIP/Brexit | 902 | 2.5% | 1,805 | 5.0% | 831 | 2.0% | ||
Green | 859 | 2.4% | 1,501 | 4.2% | 533 | 1.3% | 931 | 2.2% |
Others | 216 | 0.6% | ||||||
Majority | 10,105 | 28.2% | 21,868 | 60.9% | 28,714 | 69.5% | 28,582 | 67.9% |
. In my case the crucial "big" swing at the end was finding a bundle of opposition votes with one of mine on the top. I guess something similar must have happened here.
