Post by Richard Allen on Apr 22, 2020 12:59:28 GMT
Introduction
Birmingham Yardley is a largely unremarkable suburban constituency in the south east of the city, albeit one with an interesting history of political twists. Much of the constituency is made up of inter war and post war low rise housing, predominately semi-detached, but with significant areas of terraced housing, some of it quite a bit older. It is a predominately working class area but with a fairly large numbers of skilled or semi skilled workers and numerous reasonably well off retirees it is a little more prosperous than some of the statistics suggest. It is has a comfortable White British majority but with a growing Asian (mostly Muslim) population.
A constituency carrying the name Birmingham Yardley first came into being in 1918 but it bore little resemblance to the seat that exists today and covered areas including Small Heath, Saltley and Hodge Hill, as well as Yardley itself. The 1950 boundary changes reflected the substantial inter and post war population shifts in the city and the vastly altered Birmingham Yardley constituency took on a form that remains broadly similar to this day; containing the wards of Acocks Green, Sheldon and Yardley. In 2010 a fourth ward was added and somewhat confusingly the new ward was called Acocks Green, The old Acocks Green ward had been been renamed South Yardley in 2004 as a result of boundary change. At the same time Yardley ward was renamed Stechford and Yardley North.
Political History
For much of the later half of the 20th century it was a classic bellwether seat picking the same winner as the country in every election from 1959 to 1987 and alternating between largely unknown backbench MPs, normally with fairly narrow majorities. During this time all three wards were marginal at local level with Acocks Green and Yardley slightly favouring the Conservatives while Sheldon favoured Labour, largely on the basis of areas removed from the ward in 1982. The constituency would have likely remained a typical marginal, albeit with a Labour lean, for considerably longer but for the decision by the Liberal / SDP alliance in early to mid 1980's to focus resources on this constituency (the 1982 ward boundary changes had cost them their undersized inner city strongholds). The 1983 election saw the Alliance achieve nearly 20% and while they stagnated in the 1987 they were quietly making progress at local level. In 1984 Yardley was the first to fall and by 1987 all three of the Ward's councillors were Liberals. 1987 also saw Paul Tilsley, former a councillor for Aston (1968-1982) narrowly miss out on taking Sheldon but a year later he romped home with a near 2,000 majority and the other two seats easily followed in 1990 and 1991. Acocks Green was a tougher nut to crack but in 1990 John Hemming narrowly won, a by election two months later added a second seat and the third was secured in 1992. The Lib Dems would not face a serious challenge at local level for the next 20 years.
By the time of the 1992 general election the Lib Dem's commanding position at local level had turned the constituency into a genuine three way marginal. In the end Labour's Estelle Morris took the seat from incumbent Tory MP David Bevan by just 162 votes with John Hemming around 2,000 votes behind for the Lib Dems. Local Lib Dem folklore insists that a dodgy opinion poll in the local paper (The Evening Mail) had cost Hemming victory. With Labour surging under Tony Blair it was no surprise that Morris was comfortably re-elected in 1997 with a majority of over 5,000 and also no surprise Hemming secured a comfortable second place for the Lib Dems. For the Conservative's the loss of their MP on top of their council base led to the total collapse of party organisation in the constituency. With the Lib Dems now the clear challengers Hemming was able to squeeze the Tory vote in 2001 cutting Morris' margin in half. By now Morris had completed 4 years a junior minister in the department of Education where she was considered to have been a solid but unspectacular minister. To widespread surprise, and in what would prove to be spectacular misjudgement, she was promoted to the cabinet as Education Secretary. Morris disliked the limelight and resigned after 18 months saying she didn't feel up to the job. She would later return to the government as Minister of State for the Arts but her experience in the cabinet left her scarred and facing an uphill fight for re-election in 2005 chose retirement instead. The loss of Morris made an awkward Labour defence all the more difficult and to no one's surprise Hemming finally prevailed. 20 year's of work by the Lib Dems and their predecessors finally paid off with a modest but comfortable enough majority of 2,672. The 2010 boundary changes were moderately favourable for Labour but with the unpopularity of Gordon Brown's government Labour were strictly on the defensive and Hemming comfortably won again with a majority of just over 3,000. In parliament Hemming quickly established himself a maverick who championed many causes that most MPs were happy to avoid. He was prolific in taking on case work for his constituents but never developed the “local champion” image that many of his fellow Lib Dem MPs did.
All other things being equal the constituency would have probably continued to lean Lib Dem for years to come but the decision to enter a coalition government with the Tories would prove as disastrous for the Yardley Lib Dems as it would for their party nationally. Unlike in many areas the Yardley Lib Dems enthusiastically championed the coalition viewing it similarly to the joint Con / Lib Dem administration which had run Birmingham City Council for the previous 6 years. They were soon to discover that the voters took a very different view. At the 2011 local elections Acocks Green and South Yardley were both lost to Labour, the former by nearly 1,000 votes and their margin in Stechford and Yardley North was slashed to 400 (on the back of a minimal Labour campaign). 2012 saw something of a Lib Dem rally and in Stechford and Yardley North long standing councillor Neil Eustace, facing much more substantially Labour campaign than 12 months earlier, comfortably held with a majority of nearly 900. Acocks Green and South Yardley were against lost to Labour, although the former was much closer this time. The 2014 local elections saw the Lib fightback reach is zenith as they held all 4 wards. This gave the Lib Dems some belief that they could hold off the national tide and retain the Parliamentary seat in 2015 but as with so many other seats this optimism was misplaced. The national anti-Lib Dem tide swept Hemming away and Longbridge Councillor Jess Phillips took the seat for Labour with a majority of over 6,500. Hemming stood again in 2017 but any notion that the Lib Dems would be competitive here anytime soon was dashed by the result. Phillips had been a polarising figure in parliament and the wider political world but her willingness to speak freely and plainly had enhanced her profile locally. This combined with a surge of support for Corbybn in the more inner city parts of the constituency propelled Phillips to a staggering majority of 16,574, more than double any other majority in the seat since the 1950 boundary changes. To rub salt in the wound Hemming finished third behind a Conservative Party paper candidate with Brexit clearly costing him a lot of former Tory tactical votes. The constituency is now clearly very safe for Labour and even in the 2019 Brexit dominated election Phillips vote held up very well in what is a strongly leave area. Unsurprisingly The Lib Dems suffered badly as their position on Brexit went down very badly horrendously with many of their traditional supporters. Combined with them now being unable to attract tactical Tory votes their new candidate, Acocks Green councillor Roger Harmer, slumped to just 8.8%. With the Conservative Party achieving nearly 30%, their best showing since 1992, Phillips saw her majority cut to 10,659. While the Lib Dems retain strength at local level they have no hopes of challenging here any time soon and the Conservatives have no organisation to speak off. Barring yet another shock twist the constituency will be safe for Labour for a very long time.
Ward Breakdown
NB: For the purpose of this article I will be referring to the wards that existed prior to the radical changes made in 2018
At the southern end of the constituency is Acocks Green which contains one of the better suburban shopping areas in the city and some nice housing in the central part of the ward. To the north are some pretty grim terraced houses and a fair amount of social housing. Fox Hollies in the southern half of the ward is a little more down market from the centre of Acocks Green but better than the northern part. The western part of the ward stretches into Tyseley and is fairly similar to Acocks Green itself. Politically the Lib Dems have never been as strong here as elsewhere in the constituency but were comfortable at local level in the pre-coalition years. Since then it has been tight battle between them and Labour with the latter aided by the growing Asian (mostly Muslim) population that is moving down the Warwick Rd (A41) from Sparkbrook and Sparkhill. At general election level it is fairly solid for Labour.
In the middle of the constituency we come to South Yardley (named Acocks Green prior to 2004) which is a bit of mess of a ward made up of areas with little in common. South Yardley itself in the eastern part of the ward contains largely semi detached housing south of the Coventry Rd (A45) and a smaller area of slightly grim terraced housing to its north. To the north the ward stretches into the western part of Yardley proper which is predominantly made up of fairly reasonably terraced housing. In the centre of the ward Hay Mills lies between the outer ring road and the River Cole. It is an area that has a strange feel of not quite being suburb but not inner city either. It has a mix of housing styles and quality and a significant but far from dominant Asian population. Finally we come to the western part of the ward which was controversially added in 2004 and includes a significant chunk of Small Heath and the small area of Greet. These are clearly part of Muslim inner city East Birmingham, mostly consist of much older terraced housing, and feel completely out of place in the ward. This is now Labour's best ward in the constituency as the western and central parts give them a very strong base and although South Yardley proper is close to as good for the Lib Dems as anywhere in the constituency it isn't enough. Locally it would still competitive but in a general election it is always likely to be Labour.
At the northern end of the constituency is Stechford and Yardley North which as the name suggests is divided between two areas. The southern half of the ward takes in the central and eastern parts of Yardley proper and parts of Garrets Green to the east. Once again the area is dominated by semi-detached housing with some decent quality terraces as well although parts of Garrets Green are a bit more down market. Politically this is the home patch of Neil Eustace who has been on the council since 1986 and is one of the driving forces behind the Yardley Lib Dems and so unsurprisingly they are utterly dominant in this half of the ward. The northern half of the ward is more mixed. The south eastern part of Stechford and Lea Hall to its east have some similarities to Yardley but also contain a number of flats. The western part of Stechford which is over the outer ring road contains a lot of older housing, has a substantial Asian population and unsurprisingly votes Labour. Finally the large part of Stechford that is north of the West Coast mainline has a significant amount of council housing and makes up a big chunk of Labour's vote in the ward. Overall at local level the Lib Dem margin in Yardley is enough to overcome the Labour margin in Stechford. At general election level Labour could be vulnerable here if the opposition once again coalesced around one party.
Finally we move to the eastern part of the constituency and the ward of Sheldon which contains the area from which it takes its name and part of Garretts Green in the north of the ward. Sheldon itself is overwhelmingly owner occupied semi-detached housing while Garretts Green has some terraced housing and some poor quality social housing. Overall the ward is little more up market and a fair bit whiter than the rest of the constituency. Politically it is an impregnable Lib Dem fortress at local level, at least while its popular incumbent councillors remain. Even on the same day as the 2015 general election Paul Tilsley was still cruising to victory here with a majority of 1,700. If any party ever comes close to challenging Labour for the parliamentary seat they will be winning very well here.
Birmingham Yardley is a largely unremarkable suburban constituency in the south east of the city, albeit one with an interesting history of political twists. Much of the constituency is made up of inter war and post war low rise housing, predominately semi-detached, but with significant areas of terraced housing, some of it quite a bit older. It is a predominately working class area but with a fairly large numbers of skilled or semi skilled workers and numerous reasonably well off retirees it is a little more prosperous than some of the statistics suggest. It is has a comfortable White British majority but with a growing Asian (mostly Muslim) population.
A constituency carrying the name Birmingham Yardley first came into being in 1918 but it bore little resemblance to the seat that exists today and covered areas including Small Heath, Saltley and Hodge Hill, as well as Yardley itself. The 1950 boundary changes reflected the substantial inter and post war population shifts in the city and the vastly altered Birmingham Yardley constituency took on a form that remains broadly similar to this day; containing the wards of Acocks Green, Sheldon and Yardley. In 2010 a fourth ward was added and somewhat confusingly the new ward was called Acocks Green, The old Acocks Green ward had been been renamed South Yardley in 2004 as a result of boundary change. At the same time Yardley ward was renamed Stechford and Yardley North.
Political History
For much of the later half of the 20th century it was a classic bellwether seat picking the same winner as the country in every election from 1959 to 1987 and alternating between largely unknown backbench MPs, normally with fairly narrow majorities. During this time all three wards were marginal at local level with Acocks Green and Yardley slightly favouring the Conservatives while Sheldon favoured Labour, largely on the basis of areas removed from the ward in 1982. The constituency would have likely remained a typical marginal, albeit with a Labour lean, for considerably longer but for the decision by the Liberal / SDP alliance in early to mid 1980's to focus resources on this constituency (the 1982 ward boundary changes had cost them their undersized inner city strongholds). The 1983 election saw the Alliance achieve nearly 20% and while they stagnated in the 1987 they were quietly making progress at local level. In 1984 Yardley was the first to fall and by 1987 all three of the Ward's councillors were Liberals. 1987 also saw Paul Tilsley, former a councillor for Aston (1968-1982) narrowly miss out on taking Sheldon but a year later he romped home with a near 2,000 majority and the other two seats easily followed in 1990 and 1991. Acocks Green was a tougher nut to crack but in 1990 John Hemming narrowly won, a by election two months later added a second seat and the third was secured in 1992. The Lib Dems would not face a serious challenge at local level for the next 20 years.
By the time of the 1992 general election the Lib Dem's commanding position at local level had turned the constituency into a genuine three way marginal. In the end Labour's Estelle Morris took the seat from incumbent Tory MP David Bevan by just 162 votes with John Hemming around 2,000 votes behind for the Lib Dems. Local Lib Dem folklore insists that a dodgy opinion poll in the local paper (The Evening Mail) had cost Hemming victory. With Labour surging under Tony Blair it was no surprise that Morris was comfortably re-elected in 1997 with a majority of over 5,000 and also no surprise Hemming secured a comfortable second place for the Lib Dems. For the Conservative's the loss of their MP on top of their council base led to the total collapse of party organisation in the constituency. With the Lib Dems now the clear challengers Hemming was able to squeeze the Tory vote in 2001 cutting Morris' margin in half. By now Morris had completed 4 years a junior minister in the department of Education where she was considered to have been a solid but unspectacular minister. To widespread surprise, and in what would prove to be spectacular misjudgement, she was promoted to the cabinet as Education Secretary. Morris disliked the limelight and resigned after 18 months saying she didn't feel up to the job. She would later return to the government as Minister of State for the Arts but her experience in the cabinet left her scarred and facing an uphill fight for re-election in 2005 chose retirement instead. The loss of Morris made an awkward Labour defence all the more difficult and to no one's surprise Hemming finally prevailed. 20 year's of work by the Lib Dems and their predecessors finally paid off with a modest but comfortable enough majority of 2,672. The 2010 boundary changes were moderately favourable for Labour but with the unpopularity of Gordon Brown's government Labour were strictly on the defensive and Hemming comfortably won again with a majority of just over 3,000. In parliament Hemming quickly established himself a maverick who championed many causes that most MPs were happy to avoid. He was prolific in taking on case work for his constituents but never developed the “local champion” image that many of his fellow Lib Dem MPs did.
All other things being equal the constituency would have probably continued to lean Lib Dem for years to come but the decision to enter a coalition government with the Tories would prove as disastrous for the Yardley Lib Dems as it would for their party nationally. Unlike in many areas the Yardley Lib Dems enthusiastically championed the coalition viewing it similarly to the joint Con / Lib Dem administration which had run Birmingham City Council for the previous 6 years. They were soon to discover that the voters took a very different view. At the 2011 local elections Acocks Green and South Yardley were both lost to Labour, the former by nearly 1,000 votes and their margin in Stechford and Yardley North was slashed to 400 (on the back of a minimal Labour campaign). 2012 saw something of a Lib Dem rally and in Stechford and Yardley North long standing councillor Neil Eustace, facing much more substantially Labour campaign than 12 months earlier, comfortably held with a majority of nearly 900. Acocks Green and South Yardley were against lost to Labour, although the former was much closer this time. The 2014 local elections saw the Lib fightback reach is zenith as they held all 4 wards. This gave the Lib Dems some belief that they could hold off the national tide and retain the Parliamentary seat in 2015 but as with so many other seats this optimism was misplaced. The national anti-Lib Dem tide swept Hemming away and Longbridge Councillor Jess Phillips took the seat for Labour with a majority of over 6,500. Hemming stood again in 2017 but any notion that the Lib Dems would be competitive here anytime soon was dashed by the result. Phillips had been a polarising figure in parliament and the wider political world but her willingness to speak freely and plainly had enhanced her profile locally. This combined with a surge of support for Corbybn in the more inner city parts of the constituency propelled Phillips to a staggering majority of 16,574, more than double any other majority in the seat since the 1950 boundary changes. To rub salt in the wound Hemming finished third behind a Conservative Party paper candidate with Brexit clearly costing him a lot of former Tory tactical votes. The constituency is now clearly very safe for Labour and even in the 2019 Brexit dominated election Phillips vote held up very well in what is a strongly leave area. Unsurprisingly The Lib Dems suffered badly as their position on Brexit went down very badly horrendously with many of their traditional supporters. Combined with them now being unable to attract tactical Tory votes their new candidate, Acocks Green councillor Roger Harmer, slumped to just 8.8%. With the Conservative Party achieving nearly 30%, their best showing since 1992, Phillips saw her majority cut to 10,659. While the Lib Dems retain strength at local level they have no hopes of challenging here any time soon and the Conservatives have no organisation to speak off. Barring yet another shock twist the constituency will be safe for Labour for a very long time.
Ward Breakdown
NB: For the purpose of this article I will be referring to the wards that existed prior to the radical changes made in 2018
At the southern end of the constituency is Acocks Green which contains one of the better suburban shopping areas in the city and some nice housing in the central part of the ward. To the north are some pretty grim terraced houses and a fair amount of social housing. Fox Hollies in the southern half of the ward is a little more down market from the centre of Acocks Green but better than the northern part. The western part of the ward stretches into Tyseley and is fairly similar to Acocks Green itself. Politically the Lib Dems have never been as strong here as elsewhere in the constituency but were comfortable at local level in the pre-coalition years. Since then it has been tight battle between them and Labour with the latter aided by the growing Asian (mostly Muslim) population that is moving down the Warwick Rd (A41) from Sparkbrook and Sparkhill. At general election level it is fairly solid for Labour.
In the middle of the constituency we come to South Yardley (named Acocks Green prior to 2004) which is a bit of mess of a ward made up of areas with little in common. South Yardley itself in the eastern part of the ward contains largely semi detached housing south of the Coventry Rd (A45) and a smaller area of slightly grim terraced housing to its north. To the north the ward stretches into the western part of Yardley proper which is predominantly made up of fairly reasonably terraced housing. In the centre of the ward Hay Mills lies between the outer ring road and the River Cole. It is an area that has a strange feel of not quite being suburb but not inner city either. It has a mix of housing styles and quality and a significant but far from dominant Asian population. Finally we come to the western part of the ward which was controversially added in 2004 and includes a significant chunk of Small Heath and the small area of Greet. These are clearly part of Muslim inner city East Birmingham, mostly consist of much older terraced housing, and feel completely out of place in the ward. This is now Labour's best ward in the constituency as the western and central parts give them a very strong base and although South Yardley proper is close to as good for the Lib Dems as anywhere in the constituency it isn't enough. Locally it would still competitive but in a general election it is always likely to be Labour.
At the northern end of the constituency is Stechford and Yardley North which as the name suggests is divided between two areas. The southern half of the ward takes in the central and eastern parts of Yardley proper and parts of Garrets Green to the east. Once again the area is dominated by semi-detached housing with some decent quality terraces as well although parts of Garrets Green are a bit more down market. Politically this is the home patch of Neil Eustace who has been on the council since 1986 and is one of the driving forces behind the Yardley Lib Dems and so unsurprisingly they are utterly dominant in this half of the ward. The northern half of the ward is more mixed. The south eastern part of Stechford and Lea Hall to its east have some similarities to Yardley but also contain a number of flats. The western part of Stechford which is over the outer ring road contains a lot of older housing, has a substantial Asian population and unsurprisingly votes Labour. Finally the large part of Stechford that is north of the West Coast mainline has a significant amount of council housing and makes up a big chunk of Labour's vote in the ward. Overall at local level the Lib Dem margin in Yardley is enough to overcome the Labour margin in Stechford. At general election level Labour could be vulnerable here if the opposition once again coalesced around one party.
Finally we move to the eastern part of the constituency and the ward of Sheldon which contains the area from which it takes its name and part of Garretts Green in the north of the ward. Sheldon itself is overwhelmingly owner occupied semi-detached housing while Garretts Green has some terraced housing and some poor quality social housing. Overall the ward is little more up market and a fair bit whiter than the rest of the constituency. Politically it is an impregnable Lib Dem fortress at local level, at least while its popular incumbent councillors remain. Even on the same day as the 2015 general election Paul Tilsley was still cruising to victory here with a majority of 1,700. If any party ever comes close to challenging Labour for the parliamentary seat they will be winning very well here.
