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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 19, 2022 21:30:30 GMT
That's a little worse for Labour than the other figures I've seen: Electoral Calculus has a majority of 5950 and bjornhattan's model only 4088. I have a lead of 4,000 in Mirfield alone! That does seem a lot, but my assumption is that Dewbury and Batley would have been pretty overwhelmingly Labour and the other areas of their respective constituecies correspondingly strong for the Conservatives (except Heckmondwike which is the only ward I have Labour carrying in this constituency)
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Post by bjornhattan on Dec 19, 2022 21:37:09 GMT
That's a little worse for Labour than the other figures I've seen: Electoral Calculus has a majority of 5950 and bjornhattan's model only 4088. As I said earlier on in this thread, my model seems to think Batley has a decent Conservative vote when in truth it is likely pretty hopeless. This in turn means the Spen Valley ends up being stronger for Labour in my model than in reality. Oddly, in most places, my model has the opposite issue - constituencies end up too polarised. There are quite a few places where Labour win one or two neighbourhoods in safe Tory seats or vice versa that raise eyebrows, or places where the Lib Dems manage an unlikely win (I have one or two Lib Dem voting LSOAs in Canary Wharf and Blackheath, for instance). The fact that this constituency bucks the trend so much probably says something about how starkly divided it is.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,876
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Post by YL on Dec 19, 2022 21:40:57 GMT
I do suspect that in this case the reality is towards the higher end of the range, mainly because of how Tory Mirfield is.
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