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Post by BossMan on Apr 20, 2020 22:29:10 GMT
BATLEY AND SPEN
The West Yorkshire constituency of Batley and Spen received national attention of a tragic kind in June 2016, when its 41 year old Labour MP Jo Cox, who had been first elected only a year before, was brutally murdered by a man associated with far right organisations, in a street in the village of Birstall – where Mrs Cox had been due to hold a constituency surgery. Her successor as Labour candidate was television actress Tracy Brabin, who faced opposition only from minor parties in the subsequent by-election when the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats took the unprecedented decision to stand aside as a mark of respect – and she won with 86% of the vote.
Since its creation in 1983, this West Yorkshire constituency has seemed to have an aversion to, and distrust of, change. The first MP was the active, feisty and independently minded Conservative, Elizabeth Peacock, a magistrate and former county councillor. In 1983 she ousted, with a majority of just 862, Labour’s Ken Woolmer, who had represented the abolished Batley and Morley seat. There was a rematch between the pair in 1987, but Mrs Peacock, benefitting from an incumbency of her own, increased her majority to 1,365. In November 1990 she rather memorably stood up to ask John Major a question at his first PMQs, with Margaret Thatcher now sitting beside her on the backbenches. Most astonishingly of all, in 1992, there was virtually no swing in Batley and Spen, and Mrs Peacock became something of an electoral heroine by holding on by 1,408. It wasn’t until the Tory landslide defeat of 1997 that her luck ran out. Labour’s Mike Wood won by 6,141, but even then, the swing of 7.7% was well below the national average.
By 2001, Wood was already benefitting from his seat’s seeming unwillingness to move against incumbents. Elizabeth Peacock stood again, but as in 1992, there was virtually no change (other than a drop in turnout). Since then, Labour have held onto the seat in every general election fairly comfortably in this low swing seat. Their best result other than the by-election was in 2017, when Tracy Brabin won by 8,961, possibly in large part due to the sympathy over the murder of her predecessor. In 2019, Tracy Brabin managed to hold on by 3,525 votes notwithstanding the backlash over the Labour leadership of Jeremy Corbyn and the “Get Brexit Done” campaign of the Conservatives. This seat had voted nearly 60% to leave the European Union in the 2016 referendum. It is worth noting also the presence of a Heavy Woollen District Independent candidate, whose 12% of the vote almost matched the decline of the Labour vote.
Things are just as unlikely to change at a local level within this predominantly working class seat. There are six wards in this constituency, all within the Kirklees borough, which seem very reliable for the parties that win them. The town of Batley is decidedly Labour. Its eastern ward is has a very significant Asian community, and the western side is comprised of extensive council housing. Labour were helped in the 2010 boundary changes by the introduction of Heckmondwike, from Dewsbury – although that ward did return BNP councillors in the mid 2000s. The Conservatives fight back in two very good wards for them: the semi-rural communities Birstall & Birkenshaw, and Liversedge & Gomersal. The Liberal Democrats have also been able to count on one ward, Cleckheaton, for many years. All these wards have stuck loyally to their respective parties since 2007. One thing that has changed over the decades is the growing Asian population - mostly of Gujurati Indian origin rather than Pakistani - particularly in the Batley wards. The upshot seems to be three solid Labour wards and two solid Tory wards, leading to a fairly reliable Labour constituency overall.
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Post by BossMan on Apr 21, 2020 5:34:56 GMT
Are the Gujurati Indians here predominantly Muslim? I'm not sure, in all honesty. In Gujurat itself, the population is predominantly Hindu, but there is a significant Muslim minority also. Elizabeth Peacock is still around, aged 82. Only a year ago she appeared on the local Sunday Politics show and voiced her support for Brexit. I've seen her book as well, A Yorkshire Lass at the Court of Thatcher.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 21, 2020 6:26:50 GMT
Are the Gujurati Indians here predominantly Muslim? Yes virtually all Muslim - there are hardly any Hindus here. There is also a large number of almost entirely muslim ethnic Indians in Dewsbury. Also in Blackburn and Bolton
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Post by Merseymike on Apr 21, 2020 6:29:50 GMT
The answer is yes. I used to work in a housing advice centre with an office in Huddersfield, and Batley - then Dewsbury. We appointed a Gujerati-speaking trainee advisor to reach out to the community which was and to my knowledge remains quite insular and very religiously conservative.
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Post by hullenedge on Apr 21, 2020 8:59:01 GMT
It was a pleasant surprise when Elizabeth Peacock won the constituency in 1983. She was the underdog especially after a poor set of local election results the month before. The Conservatives were 4/5,000 votes behind but then locals may not be the best guide around here. (I'm still not convinced about the 1979 notionals for B&S, Calder Valley & Halifax...votes have gone astray).
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Post by BossMan on Apr 21, 2020 11:08:08 GMT
It's not that long since Labour won Liversedge & Gomersal in a council by-election, although I know that is unusual. Granted, admittedly I've not paid much attention to council by-election results when examining the wards in these profiles - I've been focusing on the annual May contests.
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Post by jacoblamsden on Apr 21, 2020 18:34:37 GMT
Can it really be described as a fairly reliable Labour constituency? Had it not been for the Heavy Woollen candidate who took over 6,000 votes (overwhelmingly from Brexiteers), I'd have thought this seat would have gone Conservative, probably with a majority similar to that in Dewsbury. Brabin was certainly very lucky to hold on in 2019.
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Post by greenhert on Apr 21, 2020 19:27:38 GMT
It is almost certain, if narrowly so, that the Conservatives would have taken the seat if the Heavy Woollen District Independents had not stood, given where their votes were coming from. Take a look at Ashfield for comparison; the Conservatives did gain that seat but it was one of only two Conservative gains where the Conservative vote fell.
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Post by edgbaston on Apr 21, 2020 19:59:41 GMT
The answer is yes. I used to work in a housing advice centre with an office in Huddersfield, and Batley - then Dewsbury. We appointed a Gujerati-speaking trainee advisor to reach out to the community which was and to my knowledge remains quite insular and very religiously conservative. But you might be pleased to know Mike - that they flew the pride flag from Batley town hall last year, an initiative promoted by a Muslim Cllr and supported by the Muslim leader of the council.
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Post by edgbaston on Apr 21, 2020 20:07:12 GMT
It is almost certain, if narrowly so, that the Conservatives would have taken the seat if the Heavy Woollen District Independents had not stood, given where their votes were coming from. Take a look at Ashfield for comparison; the Conservatives did gain that seat but it was one of only two Conservative gains where the Conservative vote fell. Can it really be described as a fairly reliable Labour constituency? Had it not been for the Heavy Woollen candidate who took over 6,000 votes (overwhelmingly from Brexiteers), I'd have thought this seat would have gone Conservative, probably with a majority similar to that in Dewsbury. Brabin was certainly very lucky to hold on in 2019. Yes and this was obvious on the table when you looked at where the votes were coming in from. I find Swan’s entry very good and interesting in the pre 1997 part of the profile. The post 1997 bit seems a bit off to me and overstates characteristics somewhat. I’m not sure I agree that this is an especially low swing area either. I think there’s also somewhat of an oversimplification in terms of the local politics. For example I would no longer consider Batley west a complete banker and I know this needs stating again and again to the sitting Cllrs so we aren’t caught short.
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Post by Merseymike on Apr 21, 2020 20:24:07 GMT
The answer is yes. I used to work in a housing advice centre with an office in Huddersfield, and Batley - then Dewsbury. We appointed a Gujerati-speaking trainee advisor to reach out to the community which was and to my knowledge remains quite insular and very religiously conservative. But you might be pleased to know Mike - that they flew the pride flag from Batley town hall last year, an initiative promoted by a Muslim Cllr and supported by the Muslim leader of the council. I am, but to be fair our Gujarati adviser was perfectly happy to have a gay man and two lesbians among her work colleagues and I never had any problems at all from my Muslim neighbours in Huddersfield. I always got a bowl of lamb masala and Asian sweets for Eid.
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Post by Robert Waller on Feb 15, 2021 20:35:18 GMT
2011 Census
Age 65+ 14.7% 480/650 Owner-occupied 67.1% 320/650 Private rented 14.4% 314/650 Social rented 16.4% 308/650 White 77.8% 537/650 Black 0.4% 401/650 Asian 20.2% 45/650 Managerial & professional 24.8% Routine & Semi-routine 30.4% Degree level 19.2% 543/650 No qualifications 28.6% 131/650 Students 6.7% 340/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 64.8% 314/573 Private rented 19.4% 225/573 Social rented 15.9% 256/573 White 72.3% Black 0.8% Asian 23.9% Managerial & professional 27.1% 438/573 Routine & Semi-routine 27.6% 160/573 Degree level 25.3% 479/573 No qualifications 23.1% 89/573
General Election 2019: Batley and Spen
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Co-op Tracy Brabin 22,594 42.7 -12.8 Conservative Mark Brooks 19,069 36.0 -2.8 Heavy Woollen District Independents Paul Halloran 6,432 12.2 Liberal Democrats John Lawson 2,462 4.7 +2.4 Brexit Party Clive Minihan 1,678 3.2 Green Ty Akram 692 1.3 ±0.0
Lab Majority 3,525 6.7 -10.0
Turnout 52,927 66.5 -0.6
Labour Co-op hold Swing 5.0 Lab to C
By-election 1 July 2021: Batley and Spen
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Kim Leadbeater 13,296 35.3 ―7.4 Conservative Ryan Stephenson 12,973 34.4 ―1.6 Workers Party George Galloway 8,264 21.9 N/A Liberal Democrats Tom Gordon 1,254 3.3 ―1.3 Yorkshire Corey Robinson 816 2.2 N/A English Democrat Thérèse Hirst 207 0.55 N/A UKIP Jack Thomson 151 0.4 N/A Monster Raving Loony Howling Laud Hope 107 0.3 N/A Alliance for Green Socialism Mike Davies 104 0.3 N/A CPA Paul Bickerdike 102 0.3 N/A Freedom Alliance Jonathon Tilt 100 0.3 N/A For Britain Anne Marie Waters 97 0.3 N/A Rejoin EU Andrew Smith 75 0.2 N/A SDP Ollie Purser 66 0.1 N/A Independent Jayda Fransen 50 0.1 N/A Heritage Susan Laird 33 0.1 N/A
Lab Majority 323 0.9 ―5.8
Turnout 37,695 47.5 ―19.0
Labour hold
Swing 2.9 Lab to C
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,876
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Post by YL on Nov 21, 2022 21:49:45 GMT
From 1885 until 1950, there was a constituency called Spen Valley, and the changes now proposed by the Boundary Commission transform this constituency into a constituency with very similar boundaries to the boundaries of that constituency from 1918; appropriately the name Spen Valley is proposed to be revived. The two Batley wards are transferred to Dewsbury (renamed Dewsbury & Batley) while Mirfield ward comes the other way, and the area of Kirkheaton, which is part of Dalton ward, comes in from Huddersfield; all of these were indeed part of the 1918-50 Spen Valley.
The loss of Batley and the addition of the reliably Conservative Mirfield moves this seat towards the Tories, and there can be little doubt that it would have voted fairly comfortably for them in 2019. However there is still a strong Labour base in some areas, especially in Heckmondwike, and notional results calculated so far suggest that the new Spen Valley will be a key marginal, with a notional Conservative majority of a few thousand.
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bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
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Post by bsjmcr on Nov 24, 2022 20:25:10 GMT
From 1885 until 1950, there was a constituency called Spen Valley, and the changes now proposed by the Boundary Commission transform this constituency into a constituency with very similar boundaries to the boundaries of that constituency from 1918; appropriately the name Spen Valley is proposed to be revived. The two Batley wards are transferred to Dewsbury (renamed Dewsbury & Batley) while Mirfield ward comes the other way, and the area of Kirkheaton, which is part of Dalton ward, comes in from Huddersfield; all of these were indeed part of the 1918-50 Spen Valley. The loss of Batley and the addition of the reliably Conservative Mirfield moves this seat towards the Tories, and there can be little doubt that it would have voted fairly comfortably for them in 2019. However there is still a strong Labour base in some areas, especially in Heckmondwike, and notional results calculated so far suggest that the new Spen Valley will be a key marginal, with a notional Conservative majority of a few thousand.Cleckheaton is a rare examples of a safe LD ward in that part of the world - probably due to popular incumbents including a member of the House of Lords - but how do you think it votes at a GE? Are these liberal suburban types that would lean Labour at a GE or are they anti-Labour votes going for LDs as they are best placed to keep Labour out? Where Cleck’s LD votes go could make all the difference if the Tory votes are too ingrained and hard to shift in places like Mirfield or B&B.
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Post by bjornhattan on Nov 24, 2022 22:28:00 GMT
From 1885 until 1950, there was a constituency called Spen Valley, and the changes now proposed by the Boundary Commission transform this constituency into a constituency with very similar boundaries to the boundaries of that constituency from 1918; appropriately the name Spen Valley is proposed to be revived. The two Batley wards are transferred to Dewsbury (renamed Dewsbury & Batley) while Mirfield ward comes the other way, and the area of Kirkheaton, which is part of Dalton ward, comes in from Huddersfield; all of these were indeed part of the 1918-50 Spen Valley. The loss of Batley and the addition of the reliably Conservative Mirfield moves this seat towards the Tories, and there can be little doubt that it would have voted fairly comfortably for them in 2019. However there is still a strong Labour base in some areas, especially in Heckmondwike, and notional results calculated so far suggest that the new Spen Valley will be a key marginal, with a notional Conservative majority of a few thousand.Cleckheaton is a rare examples of a safe LD ward in that part of the world - probably due to popular incumbents including a member of the House of Lords - but how do you think it votes at a GE? Are these liberal suburban types that would lean Labour at a GE or are they anti-Labour votes going for LDs as they are best placed to keep Labour out? Where Cleck’s LD votes go could make all the difference if the Tory votes are too ingrained and hard to shift in places like Mirfield or B&B. The demographics in Cleckheaton are pretty close to the national average in most regards. There's nothing to suggest a particularly liberal bent to politics as you would see in the Calder Valley, but also it isn't really natural Conservative territory in the way somewhere like Mirfield is. Probably the biggest factor (particularly relative to somewhere like Batley) is that almost 96% of residents were white in 2011, and this figure is unlikely to have changed much; when I visited last year that seemed broadly accurate still. This probably means parties like UKIP and the Heavy Woollen Independents did reasonably well here in 2015 and 2019 respectively, but other than that it votes roughly in line with the country as a whole. My own estimates for the last four general elections in Cleck are as follows: in 2019 the Conservatives won by 9% (43-34); in 2017 Labour won by 0.6% (47.3-46.7); in 2015 the Conservatives won by 1.5% (37.2-35.7); in 2010 the Conservatives won by 0.1% (37.7-37.6). So almost certainly Conservative in 2019 but too close to call in the other years. It was also believed to have voted reasonably strongly for the Conservatives at the 2021 by-election, but I don't have exact figures (nor my own estimates) for that.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Nov 25, 2022 8:02:55 GMT
The demographics in Cleckheaton are pretty close to the national average in most regards. There's nothing to suggest a particularly liberal bent to politics as you would see in the Calder Valley, but also it isn't really natural Conservative territory in the way somewhere like Mirfield is. Probably the biggest factor (particularly relative to somewhere like Batley) is that almost 96% of residents were white in 2011, and this figure is unlikely to have changed much; when I visited last year that seemed broadly accurate still. This probably means parties like UKIP and the Heavy Woollen Independents did reasonably well here in 2015 and 2019 respectively, but other than that it votes roughly in line with the country as a whole. My own estimates for the last four general elections in Cleck are as follows: in 2019 the Conservatives won by 9% (43-34); in 2017 Labour won by 0.6% (47.3-46.7); in 2015 the Conservatives won by 1.5% (37.2-35.7); in 2010 the Conservatives won by 0.1% (37.7-37.6). So almost certainly Conservative in 2019 but too close to call in the other years. It was also believed to have voted reasonably strongly for the Conservatives at the 2021 by-election, but I don't have exact figures (nor my own estimates) for that. What do you have for the other wards? I got the impression that it was thought that Kim Leadbeater did quite well in the west of the existing constituency in the 2021 by-election, making up for the loss of votes to George Galloway in the Batley wards and Heckmondwike.
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Post by bjornhattan on Nov 25, 2022 12:42:07 GMT
The demographics in Cleckheaton are pretty close to the national average in most regards. There's nothing to suggest a particularly liberal bent to politics as you would see in the Calder Valley, but also it isn't really natural Conservative territory in the way somewhere like Mirfield is. Probably the biggest factor (particularly relative to somewhere like Batley) is that almost 96% of residents were white in 2011, and this figure is unlikely to have changed much; when I visited last year that seemed broadly accurate still. This probably means parties like UKIP and the Heavy Woollen Independents did reasonably well here in 2015 and 2019 respectively, but other than that it votes roughly in line with the country as a whole. My own estimates for the last four general elections in Cleck are as follows: in 2019 the Conservatives won by 9% (43-34); in 2017 Labour won by 0.6% (47.3-46.7); in 2015 the Conservatives won by 1.5% (37.2-35.7); in 2010 the Conservatives won by 0.1% (37.7-37.6). So almost certainly Conservative in 2019 but too close to call in the other years. It was also believed to have voted reasonably strongly for the Conservatives at the 2021 by-election, but I don't have exact figures (nor my own estimates) for that. What do you have for the other wards? I got the impression that it was thought that Kim Leadbeater did quite well in the west of the existing constituency in the 2021 by-election, making up for the loss of votes to George Galloway in the Batley wards and Heckmondwike. I should stress that this is a demographic model - this means some of the results aren't in line with local elections (which outwith Cleckheaton will be a much more reliable guide to support). In particular, my model seems to underestimate Labour slightly in Batley and Heckmondwike and overestimate Labour in Birstall and particularly Liversedge. These errors are worst in 2010, where presumably the Conservatives winning in Dewsbury (demographically similar to the eastern wards) has had a significant influence on the estimates - obviously Labour did better in Heckmondwike than Liversedge that year even if my estimates say otherwise.
Ward | 2019 | 2017
| 2015
| 2010
| Batley East
| Lab 55-25
| Lab 67-27
| Lab 54-23
| Lab 49-28
| Batley West
| Lab 52-28
| Lab 64-31
| Lab 51-25
| Lab 48-28
| Birstall and Birkenshaw
| Con 43-34
| Con 48-45
| Con 39-34
| Con 40-35
| Cleckheaton
| Con 43-34
| Lab 47-47
| Con 37-36
| Con 38-38
| Heckmondwike
| Lab 40-40
| Lab 53-42
| Lab 41-34
| Lab 40-36
| Liversedge and Gomersal
| Con 40-38
| Lab 51-43
| Lab 40-32
| Lab 41-34
| Batley and Spen
| Lab 43-36
| Lab 55-39
| Lab 43-31
| Lab 42-33
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Regarding the by-election, I remember reading that Leadbeter won Heckmondwike, Galloway the two Batley wards, and Ryan Stephenson the three western wards, but that George Galloway's dismal performance in the west and Ryan Stephenson's in the east meant that Leadbeter was able to come through the middle and win. However, I can't find any reference to this, certainly not on here anyhow.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,631
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 25, 2022 12:54:33 GMT
There were suggestions that Labour won the by-election without carrying any wards at all - which is far from impossible when you think about it.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 19, 2022 21:09:54 GMT
2019 Notional results on new boundaries - Spen Valley Con | 22788 | 47.6% | Lab | 15727 | 32.8% | Oth | 4401 | 9.2% | LD | 2478 | 5.2% | BxP | 1727 | 3.6% | Grn | 772 | 1.6% | | | | Majority | 7061 | 14.7% |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Dec 19, 2022 21:20:16 GMT
That's a little worse for Labour than the other figures I've seen: Electoral Calculus has a majority of 5950 and bjornhattan's model only 4088.
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