Fylde

[greenhert]

Another reason the predecessor South Fylde constituency obtained a Conservative majority of 32,247 was because it was oversized; it had 94,885 electors in 1979.

[Deleted]

@barnabymarder, I was intending to do Fylde and Chorley and then leave East Lancs to the experts. I'll add my own version of Fylde and try to get Chorley done tonight as well.

[Deleted]

Amongst the 650 constituencies of the UK Parliament, there are those which have their time in the sun, and those which appear to carry on for hundreds of years without setting anything on fire. The modern re-creation of Fylde, fought in 1983, has had just three MPs, all Conservative, and all without household name notoriety. Incidentally, and whether this is important truly is your call, Fylde has yet to return a female MP. 

The Fylde peninsula is a square, rural, and flat area of Lancashire which stops Preston from falling into the sea and Blackpool from floating away to crash into the Isle of Man. As a whole the Fylde area contains everything west of the M6, including the entire coastline from Fleetwood to Freckleton. The constituency is much smaller in size, taking a compact slab of land and incorporating the main population centre of Kirkham, alongside Wesham, Warton, Lytham/St Annes, and Weeton. Some of these places have national significance even if the constituency is somewhat overlooked. Warton is home to BAe (British Aerospace as was) and has a significant economic impact on the area and beyond, including Preston. Weeton Barracks was set up during the First World War and has been the base of the Duke of Lancaster's for many years. Golf enthusiasts will know Fairhaven and the the Royal Lytham course, used for Open Championships for many years, often reached by special shuttle trains from Preston and Blackpool: and yes, these shuttles were once Pacers, and long before any refurbishment. At Salwick, by the by, is the BNFL site currently known by the name "Springfields", so as proven by The Simpsons, there truly is a Springfield Nuclear Plant. 

It can't be overstated; Fylde is not particularly young nor ethnically mixed. Over 97% of the population told the 2011 Census that they were White British, and barely 5% of the constituency overall are born outside the UK. This picture is underscored by how many people reported having English as a first language - 97.8% - and how three-quarters own their own home. This is small- and large- letter c conservative territory where a quarter of the overall population is of pensionable age. If you want to know where Lancashire folk go to retire, you would do worse than make your way to the genteel seaside towns of Lytham/St Annes and look around you: cosy, comfortable, moneyed, and settled down.

How do the Conservatives fare at Parliamentary level? Current MP Mark Menzies reached a personal best of 61% vote share, and a 35.6% majority, in December's general election. This may seem moderate rather than comfortable. Fylde tends to attract larger than normal ballot papers for these parts, so votes do get spread about. UKIP took 12% here in 2015, and the Referendum Party only just lost its deposit. Labour are the main challengers, with their vote concentrated in the more mixed and urban Kirkham. Unlike neighbouring boroughs, independents and localist parties win seats at council level, including Ratepayers Associations, making direct comparison with Parliamentary results slightly trickier,. The entire southern coast was a Conservative clean-sweep at the 2017 County elections, although the LibDems sprang a shock gain of St Annes in recent memory, while independents took the eastern wards covering Kirkham, and the borderlands where the borough meets Wyre and Preston.  As with Ribble Valley, the borough of Fylde doesn't quite have enough electors to form a seat of its own. The current solution is adding (what was) an electoral ward from Preston covering Lea and Cottam; local government boundary changes in Preston has split this ward in half, so while *technically speaking* the Fylde seat covers Lea and Cottam, the upcoming Parliamentary review will have to decide how to tidy up and reconcile the eastern border, Lea was once a competitive Tory/LD marginal, very much true blue Tory in its later years, and is now represented by 3 Labour councillors for the first time in living memory in its new guise as "Lea and Larches". Cottam now forms part of a 3x LibDem ward "Ingol and Cottam". These little alternatives to Conservative dominance mean little in the grand scheme of things, given the electoral history of the seat, and how the Conservatives rise above divided ballot papers to always secure victory. What might not be headline stealing remains, at least, psephologist-pleasing.  

[Deleted]

Apr 20, 2020 21:00:56 GMT @barnabymarder said:

Apr 20, 2020 19:48:35 GMT @pr1berske said:

@barnabymarder , I was intending to do Fylde and Chorley and then leave East Lancs to the experts. I'll add my own version of Fylde and try to get Chorley done tonight as well.

I wasn't planning to do other constituencies in Lancashire except perhaps the Blackpool ones, but they've already been done. My grandparents lived in St Annes-on-Sea, until my grandmother ended her days moving back to Manchester to be nearer to her family; they lived yards from Squires Gate station, which I did use once or twice, and only about 150 yards from the tram terminus, but it was officially St Annes, hence my recollection of Pontins & the dunes. They did have family members over the borough boundary into Blackpool too, one of whom was particularly Orthodox - he wouldn't even answer the phone on Shabbat. In between, after my grandfather died in 1977, she lived in a converted flat much closer to the centre of St Annes. So, basically, I have close knowledge of this constituency, and pretty good knowledge of Blackpool South (I last visited the town for Labour Party Conference in 2002), but much less of the rest of the county, but that's closer to your neck of the woods anyway.

 Cheers BM. There is no harm in adding your own submissions even if they've been "claimed". Each one can be put together and merged/shuffled around until a perfect compromise is created. 

[Deleted]

Apr 20, 2020 20:45:43 GMT @pr1berske said:

Amongst the 650 constituencies of the UK Parliament, there are those which have their time in the sun, and those which appear to carry on for hundreds of years without setting anything on fire. The modern re-creation of Fylde, fought in 1983, has had just three MPs, all Conservative, and all without household name notoriety. Incidentally, and whether this is important truly is your call, Fylde has yet to return a female MP. 

The Fylde peninsula is a square, rural, and flat area of Lancashire which stops Preston from falling into the sea and Blackpool from floating away to crash into the Isle of Man. As a whole the Fylde area contains everything west of the M6, including the entire coastline from Fleetwood to Freckleton. The constituency is much smaller in size, taking a compact slab of land and incorporating the main population centre of Kirkham, alongside Wesham, Warton, Lytham/St Annes, and Weeton. Some of these places have national significance even if the constituency is somewhat overlooked. Warton is home to BAe (British Aerospace as was) and has a significant economic impact on the area and beyond, including Preston. Weeton Barracks was set up during the First World War and has been the base of the Duke of Lancaster's for many years. Golf enthusiasts will know Fairhaven and the the Royal Lytham course, used for Open Championships for many years, often reached by special shuttle trains from Preston and Blackpool: and yes, these shuttles were once Pacers, and long before any refurbishment. At Salwick, by the by, is the BNFL site currently known by the name "Springfields", so as proven by The Simpsons, there truly is a Springfield Nuclear Plant. 

It can't be overstated; Fylde is not particularly young nor ethnically mixed. Over 97% of the population told the 2011 Census that they were White British, and barely 5% of the constituency overall are born outside the UK. This picture is underscored by how many people reported having English as a first language - 97.8% - and how three-quarters own their own home. This is small- and large- letter c conservative territory where a quarter of the overall population is of pensionable age. If you want to know where Lancashire folk go to retire, you would do worse than make your way to the genteel seaside towns of Lytham/St Annes and look around you: cosy, comfortable, moneyed, and settled down.

How do the Conservatives fare at Parliamentary level? Current MP Mark Menzies reached a personal best of 61% vote share, and a 35.6% majority, in December's general election. This may seem moderate rather than comfortable. Fylde tends to attract larger than normal ballot papers for these parts, so votes do get spread about. UKIP took 12% here in 2015, and the Referendum Party only just lost its deposit. Labour are the main challengers, with their vote concentrated in the more mixed and urban Kirkham. Unlike neighbouring boroughs, independents and localist parties win seats at council level, including Ratepayers Associations, making direct comparison with Parliamentary results slightly trickier,. The entire southern coast was a Conservative clean-sweep at the 2017 County elections, although the LibDems sprang a shock gain of St Annes in recent memory, while independents took the eastern wards covering Kirkham, and the borderlands where the borough meets Wyre and Preston.  As with Ribble Valley, the borough of Fylde doesn't quite have enough electors to form a seat of its own. The current solution is adding (what was) an electoral ward from Preston covering Lea and Cottam; local government boundary changes in Preston has split this ward in half, so while *technically speaking* the Fylde seat covers Lea and Cottam, the upcoming Parliamentary review will have to decide how to tidy up and reconcile the eastern border, Lea was once a competitive Tory/LD marginal, very much true blue Tory in its later years, and is now represented by 3 Labour councillors for the first time in living memory in its new guise as "Lea and Larches". Cottam now forms part of a 3x LibDem ward "Ingol and Cottam". These little alternatives to Conservative dominance mean little in the grand scheme of things, given the electoral history of the seat, and how the Conservatives rise above divided ballot papers to always secure victory. What might not be headline stealing remains, at least, psephologist-pleasing.  

FAO AdminSTB 

[Robert Waller]

2011 Census

Age 65+ 23.3% 32/650
Owner-occupied 73.8% 94/650
Private rented 16.7% 207/650
Social rented 7.8% 633/650
White 97.3% 198/650
Black 0.2% 507/650
Asian 1.3% 455/650
Managerial & professional 37.3%
Routine & Semi-routine 21.1%
Degree level 30.0% 184/650
No qualifications 20.8% 426/650
Students 6.0% 477/650


2021 Census

Owner occupied 72.9% 93/573
Private rented 18.5% 262/573
Social rented 8.6% 548/573
White 95.9%
Black 0.5%
Asian 1.7%
Managerial & professional 38.2% 144/573
Routine & Semi-routine 20.0% 423/573
Degree level 34.8% 207/573
No qualifications 15.8% 393/573


General Election 2019: Fylde

Party Candidate Votes % ±%

Conservative Mark Menzies 28,432 60.9 +2.2
Labour Martin Mitchell 11,821 25.3 -8.0
Liberal Democrats Mark Jewell 3,748 8.0 +3.0
Green Gina Dowding 1,731 3.7 +1.0
Independent Andy Higgins 927 2.0

C Majority 16,611 35.6 +10.2

Turnout 46,659 69.8 -0.9

Conservative hold

Swing 5.1 Lab to C

[Pete Whitehead]

Boundary changes remove the part of Preston included (Lea) and instead add part of Wyre district in the form of most of Poulton-le-Fylde

2019 Notional result

Con	31746	61.5%
Lab	13291	25.7%
LD	3844	7.4%
Grn	1864	3.6%
Oth	911	1.8%
Majority	18455	35.7%