Enfield North
Apr 20, 2020 12:16:56 GMT
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Post by John Chanin on Apr 20, 2020 12:16:56 GMT
This very varied seat on the border of Greater London is based on the town of Enfield proper. On the east of the seat, alongside the river Lea as far north as the M25, is the old industrial area of Enfield Lock and Highway. This is essentially a continuation of Ponders End to the south and Waltham Cross to the north - an area developed very early alongside the Lea navigation canal, and the railway to Liverpool Street. This eastern part of Enfield is only half owner-occupied, with substantial council housing, and is much more working class, with a high black population similar to Edmonton and Tottenham to the south. Enfield Island Village is a large new development on the site of the famous old Enfield Small Arms factory (source of the Enfield rifle), sitting between the Lea Navigation and the river proper, just to the north of the reservoirs. Curiously this area was in Epping Forest district prior to the development, although its communications are all to the west. Inland between the two main roads (A10 and A1010) is another railway line, and very similar demographics. This working class area was historically Labour (there was a separate Enfield East seat prior to 1974) but became much more marginal in modern times. All 4 wards were won by the Conservatives in 2002, and they held 2 of them in 2006, but all wards have been Labour since then. One major trend here has been a rise in homeless families relocated from inner London, as this remains one of the cheapest areas of London.
To the west of the A10 is Enfield town - a decidedly more up market district where there is little council housing, three quarters of households are owner-occupiers, there is a high proportion of managerial jobs, and nearly 80% of the population is still white. Enfield is an old market town with the 18th century New River flowing through it, but there isn’t much of this left. Mostly this is inter-war suburban semi-detached housing, and the town centre is new. To the north, between Enfield and the M25 is Enfield Chase. This is basically open country, whose absorption into Greater London in 1965 was due to it being part of the old Middlesex district of Enfield. The three wards covering the town and Chase are normally Conservative, and transitional Southbury ward is marginal.
The creation of Enfield North in 1974 brought the middle class west and the working class east together into a seat that has been highly marginal and has changed hands several times. Labour’s Joan Ryan won it from the Conservatives in 1997, but was defeated in 2010, only to regain the seat in 2015. Ryan fell out with her constituency party, as a vocal critic of Jeremy Corbyn, and was one of the MPs who defected to the Independent Group for Change in 2019. She did not try and retain the seat and the new MP is Feryal Clark (nee Demirci), former Hackney councillor, who is the first MP of Kurdish origin. The seat remains marginal, although it has been trending Labour like many outer London seats.
Enfield North is slightly undersized. As well as realignment to the new ward boundaries, the Boundary Commission is proposing to add the Grange Park ward to the south of the town, which covers the north side of Winchmore Hill, and has similar demographics and voting behaviour to the other wards on the west of the seat. This will leave 4 Labour wards fighting 4 Conservative wards with 1 marginal, and should Conservative fortunes revive in London, the seat could revert to its traditional position as a key marginal.
Census data: owner-occupied 61% (424/573 in England & Wales), private rented 19% (132nd), social rented 19% (201st).
:White 68%, Black 15%, Sth Asian 4%, Mixed 6%, Other 8%
: Managerial & professional 36% (264th), Routine & Semi-routine 27% (345th)
: Degree 26% (287th), Minimal qualifications 39% (211th)
: Students 6% (141st), Over 65: 12% (493rd)
To the west of the A10 is Enfield town - a decidedly more up market district where there is little council housing, three quarters of households are owner-occupiers, there is a high proportion of managerial jobs, and nearly 80% of the population is still white. Enfield is an old market town with the 18th century New River flowing through it, but there isn’t much of this left. Mostly this is inter-war suburban semi-detached housing, and the town centre is new. To the north, between Enfield and the M25 is Enfield Chase. This is basically open country, whose absorption into Greater London in 1965 was due to it being part of the old Middlesex district of Enfield. The three wards covering the town and Chase are normally Conservative, and transitional Southbury ward is marginal.
The creation of Enfield North in 1974 brought the middle class west and the working class east together into a seat that has been highly marginal and has changed hands several times. Labour’s Joan Ryan won it from the Conservatives in 1997, but was defeated in 2010, only to regain the seat in 2015. Ryan fell out with her constituency party, as a vocal critic of Jeremy Corbyn, and was one of the MPs who defected to the Independent Group for Change in 2019. She did not try and retain the seat and the new MP is Feryal Clark (nee Demirci), former Hackney councillor, who is the first MP of Kurdish origin. The seat remains marginal, although it has been trending Labour like many outer London seats.
Enfield North is slightly undersized. As well as realignment to the new ward boundaries, the Boundary Commission is proposing to add the Grange Park ward to the south of the town, which covers the north side of Winchmore Hill, and has similar demographics and voting behaviour to the other wards on the west of the seat. This will leave 4 Labour wards fighting 4 Conservative wards with 1 marginal, and should Conservative fortunes revive in London, the seat could revert to its traditional position as a key marginal.
Census data: owner-occupied 61% (424/573 in England & Wales), private rented 19% (132nd), social rented 19% (201st).
:White 68%, Black 15%, Sth Asian 4%, Mixed 6%, Other 8%
: Managerial & professional 36% (264th), Routine & Semi-routine 27% (345th)
: Degree 26% (287th), Minimal qualifications 39% (211th)
: Students 6% (141st), Over 65: 12% (493rd)
2010 | % | 2015 | % | 2017 | % | 2019 | % | |
Labour | 17,112 | 38.5% | 20,172 | 43.7% | 28,177 | 58.0% | 23,340 | 51.8% |
Conservative | 18,804 | 42.3% | 19,086 | 41.4% | 17,930 | 36.9% | 16,848 | 37.4% |
Liberal Democrat | 5,403 | 12.2% | 1,059 | 2.3% | 1,036 | 2.1% | 2,950 | 6.5% |
UKIP/Brexit | 938 | 2.1% | 4,133 | 9.0% | 848 | 1.7% | 797 | 1.8% |
Green | 489 | 1.1% | 1,303 | 2.8% | 574 | 1.2% | 1,115 | 2.5% |
Others | 1,707 | 3.9% | 384 | 0.8% | ||||
Majority | -1,692 | -3.8% | 1,086 | 2.4% | 10,247 | 21.1% | 6,492 | 14.4% |
