Post by John Chanin on Apr 20, 2020 11:31:25 GMT
Edmonton stretches up the west bank of the River Lea to the north of Tottenham. South of the North Circular Road, it blends indistinguishably into Tottenham. The Edmonton wards proper are over a third black, and this constituency as a whole has the 4th highest black percentage in the country, fairly evenly split between those of African and Caribbean descent. Inland Haselbury ward is a little up market, but not much. This area is unusual for London in having a much higher percentage in routine rather than managerial occupations. There is a large development site where industry once stood alongside the Lea to the south of the North Circular Road, which will substantially increase the population here in due course.
The other 2 sections of the constituency are rather different. To the west Bush Hill Park on the far side of the A10 is part of the suburban area of Enfield bordering Winchmore Hill, and has very different demographics, with over three-quarters owner-occupied and white, and only half as many routine workers as in Edmonton. This is the only ward to vote Conservative. To the north is Ponders End where another of the infrequent crossings of the Lea happens. This area alongside the Lea was developed much earlier than other suburbs, as the railway was extended from Liverpool Street, and once had substantial industry associated with the Lea Navigation canal. This has a slightly higher white population, but still below 50% and a higher asian population. There is quite a lot of council housing here, and most of this area was only added to the constituency in 2010.
Overall this is a very working class and little known residential area of London, down market even from neighbouring Tottenham, and nearly as cosmopolitan. and has been solidly Labour in recent years. Surprisingly it was held by the Conservatives from 1983 to 1997, who did very well in London in the 1980s, and unexpectedly held on by a 3 figure margin in 1992. Demographic change has been a major factor in changing it from a marginal. The MP here since 2015 is Kate Osamor, who was a shadow minister before running into trouble over her son’s drug convictions.
Enfield borough has too few voters to sustain three seats, while neighbouring Barnet and Haringey both have surpluses. At least one cross-borough seat is therefore inevitable. Edmonton is currently undersized, and the original proposals added Bowes ward south of the North Circular (really part of Wood Green) and Highfield ward (the east side of Palmers Green), both mostly in the present Southgate constituency. New ward boundaries meanwhile moved 3500 voters into Enfield North. Following consultation and as a result of changes elsewhere, Bowes has been swapped for Winchmore Hill, also currently in the Southgate constituency where it belongs. This does not improve this seat, whatever the advantages elsewhere. The two wards added are decidedly middle-class - Winchmore Hill has the highest proportion of managerial workers and people with degrees in the borough, and is safely Conservative, and Highfield is marginal, with negligible social housing and a white majority in both. While this will improve the Conservative position, it will not do enough to counteract working class Edmonton proper, and the Conservatives are unlikely to regain this seat.
Census data: owner-occupied 50% (511/573 in England & Wales), private rented 24% (76th), social rented 25% (89th).
:White 47%, Black 27%, Sth Asian 7%, Mixed 6%, Other 12%
: Managerial & professional 29% (443rd), Routine & Semi-routine 34% (182nd)
: Degree 22% (378th), Minimal qualifications 41% (155th)
: Students 8% (91st), Over 65: 10% (524th)
The other 2 sections of the constituency are rather different. To the west Bush Hill Park on the far side of the A10 is part of the suburban area of Enfield bordering Winchmore Hill, and has very different demographics, with over three-quarters owner-occupied and white, and only half as many routine workers as in Edmonton. This is the only ward to vote Conservative. To the north is Ponders End where another of the infrequent crossings of the Lea happens. This area alongside the Lea was developed much earlier than other suburbs, as the railway was extended from Liverpool Street, and once had substantial industry associated with the Lea Navigation canal. This has a slightly higher white population, but still below 50% and a higher asian population. There is quite a lot of council housing here, and most of this area was only added to the constituency in 2010.
Overall this is a very working class and little known residential area of London, down market even from neighbouring Tottenham, and nearly as cosmopolitan. and has been solidly Labour in recent years. Surprisingly it was held by the Conservatives from 1983 to 1997, who did very well in London in the 1980s, and unexpectedly held on by a 3 figure margin in 1992. Demographic change has been a major factor in changing it from a marginal. The MP here since 2015 is Kate Osamor, who was a shadow minister before running into trouble over her son’s drug convictions.
Enfield borough has too few voters to sustain three seats, while neighbouring Barnet and Haringey both have surpluses. At least one cross-borough seat is therefore inevitable. Edmonton is currently undersized, and the original proposals added Bowes ward south of the North Circular (really part of Wood Green) and Highfield ward (the east side of Palmers Green), both mostly in the present Southgate constituency. New ward boundaries meanwhile moved 3500 voters into Enfield North. Following consultation and as a result of changes elsewhere, Bowes has been swapped for Winchmore Hill, also currently in the Southgate constituency where it belongs. This does not improve this seat, whatever the advantages elsewhere. The two wards added are decidedly middle-class - Winchmore Hill has the highest proportion of managerial workers and people with degrees in the borough, and is safely Conservative, and Highfield is marginal, with negligible social housing and a white majority in both. While this will improve the Conservative position, it will not do enough to counteract working class Edmonton proper, and the Conservatives are unlikely to regain this seat.
Census data: owner-occupied 50% (511/573 in England & Wales), private rented 24% (76th), social rented 25% (89th).
:White 47%, Black 27%, Sth Asian 7%, Mixed 6%, Other 12%
: Managerial & professional 29% (443rd), Routine & Semi-routine 34% (182nd)
: Degree 22% (378th), Minimal qualifications 41% (155th)
: Students 8% (91st), Over 65: 10% (524th)
2010 | % | 2015 | % | 2017 | % | 2019 | % | |
Labour | 21,665 | 53.7% | 25,388 | 61.4% | 31,211 | 71.5% | 26,217 | 65.0% |
Conservative | 12,052 | 29.8% | 9,969 | 24.1% | 10,106 | 23.1% | 10,202 | 25.3% |
Liberal Democrat | 4,252 | 10.5% | 897 | 2.2% | 858 | 2.0% | 2,145 | 5.3% |
UKIP/Brexit | 1,036 | 2.6% | 3,366 | 8.1% | 860 | 2.0% | 840 | 2.1% |
Green | 516 | 1.3% | 1,358 | 3.3% | 633 | 1.4% | 862 | 2.1% |
Others | 856 | 2.1% | 360 | 0.9% | 75 | 0.2% | ||
Majority | 9,613 | 23.8% | 15,419 | 37.3% | 21,105 | 48.3% | 16,015 | 39.7% |
