Post by John Chanin on Apr 20, 2020 10:45:39 GMT
Southgate is one of those constituencies that has moved sharply away from the Conservatives over the last 25 years as a result both of demographic and political change. The only boundary changes since 1983 have been realignment to new ward boundaries. The seat forms the south-west corner of the borough of Enfield, stretching all the way from the North Circular Road to open country on the Hertfordshire border. In fact it actually extends south of the North Circular Road where Bowes Park, really a part of Wood Green, with demographics to match, is the only traditional Labour area in the seat. To the north are the suburbs of Palmers Green, Winchmore Hill, and Southgate proper, all full of inter-war semi-detached houses, all traditionally owner-occupied, and with very little social housing. There are some fine Victorian & Georgian mansions at Southgate Green, the old village before the suburbs crawled across the country separating it from London. These days a quarter of households rent privately - part of the change mentioned above - except for Grange ward in the north-east corner which extends across Bush Hill Park and Golf Course, and the New River (originally dug in the 1600s to bring fresh water into central London), to the southern part of Enfield town, which remains whiter and more up market. As part of the Green Lanes corridor, there is a large other white contingent, mainly Cypriot, population here, of around 20% (6th highest in the country), but these are families made good, who in the normal way have moved out towards better quality housing and environment. There is a sizeable Asian population these days (mostly of Indian descent) in the suburban wards, but a low black population. Cockfosters at the northern end of the seat, west of Enfield town on the other side of the huge Trent Park, and the terminus of the Piccadilly line, is more closely linked to Barnet than Enfield. Demographically it is little different to the suburban areas of Barnet and Southgate though. The Hadley Wood area is outside the built up area of London, and it is a historic anomaly that it is included in Greater London. The seat is solidly middle-class, with managerial occupations and degrees both being in the top 100.
Historically the Conservatives won all the wards here except Bowes, and this was considered a safe seat with Michael Portillo having a majority of over 15,000 in 1992, and more than twice the vote of Labour. However like neighbouring suburban seats there was an enormous swing of over 17% here in 1997 to give Labour an unexpected victory. The Conservatives regained the seat in 2005, but it did not revert to safe status. At local level Labour started winning Palmers Green ward in the south, as younger more liberal and less white households started moving into the suburbs in significant numbers. The big change politically is however more recent, with the 10% swing linked to EU membership occurring in 2017, and returning the seat to Labour. The current MP is Bambos Charalambous, from the local Cypriot community. Since 2018 Labour have also started winning at council elections in the Southgate wards. Unlike many other seats there was no swing back to the Conservatives in 2019. Although still a well-off middle-class seat it does not look easy for the Conservatives with their present profile to come back here - a sign of how much ground they have lost in London among the educated middle classes.
Enfield borough has too few voters to sustain three seats, while neighbouring Barnet and Haringey both have surpluses. At least one cross-borough seat is therefore inevitable. The Boundary Commission’s initial proposals sought to solve the problems in north London by carving Barnet into 5 pieces. The two easternmost wards of Chipping Barnet were to be added to the undersized Southgate in exchange for the Bowes and Highfield wards in the south-east of the seat. This would have made the seat even more middle-class but would not have affected the political balance, both Barnet wards voting Labour. Following consultation there has been a complete rethink, with Enfield being linked with Haringey rather than Barnet. Now the seat is to lose the Winchmore Hill wards - one to Enfield North and one to Edmonton. Bowes has been restored, and the three Wood Green wards from Haringey come in, along with White Hart Lane from Tottenham. This will create a strange long thin constituency, following the Piccadilly line all the way from inner city Turnpike Lane to the Greater London boundary at Cockfosters and Hadley Wood. The new seat, renamed Southgate & Wood Green, will also be safely Labour, dashing any hopes the Conservatives might have had for a comeback here.
Census data: owner-occupied 66% (331/573 in England & Wales), private rented 24% (73rd), social rented 9% (542nd).
:White 70%, Black 7%, Sth Asian 8%, Mixed 5%, Other 10%
: Managerial & professional 47% (72nd), Routine & Semi-routine 18% (540th)
: Degree 38% (59th), Minimal qualifications 27% (516th)
: Students 7% (119th), Over 65: 15% (394th)
Historically the Conservatives won all the wards here except Bowes, and this was considered a safe seat with Michael Portillo having a majority of over 15,000 in 1992, and more than twice the vote of Labour. However like neighbouring suburban seats there was an enormous swing of over 17% here in 1997 to give Labour an unexpected victory. The Conservatives regained the seat in 2005, but it did not revert to safe status. At local level Labour started winning Palmers Green ward in the south, as younger more liberal and less white households started moving into the suburbs in significant numbers. The big change politically is however more recent, with the 10% swing linked to EU membership occurring in 2017, and returning the seat to Labour. The current MP is Bambos Charalambous, from the local Cypriot community. Since 2018 Labour have also started winning at council elections in the Southgate wards. Unlike many other seats there was no swing back to the Conservatives in 2019. Although still a well-off middle-class seat it does not look easy for the Conservatives with their present profile to come back here - a sign of how much ground they have lost in London among the educated middle classes.
Enfield borough has too few voters to sustain three seats, while neighbouring Barnet and Haringey both have surpluses. At least one cross-borough seat is therefore inevitable. The Boundary Commission’s initial proposals sought to solve the problems in north London by carving Barnet into 5 pieces. The two easternmost wards of Chipping Barnet were to be added to the undersized Southgate in exchange for the Bowes and Highfield wards in the south-east of the seat. This would have made the seat even more middle-class but would not have affected the political balance, both Barnet wards voting Labour. Following consultation there has been a complete rethink, with Enfield being linked with Haringey rather than Barnet. Now the seat is to lose the Winchmore Hill wards - one to Enfield North and one to Edmonton. Bowes has been restored, and the three Wood Green wards from Haringey come in, along with White Hart Lane from Tottenham. This will create a strange long thin constituency, following the Piccadilly line all the way from inner city Turnpike Lane to the Greater London boundary at Cockfosters and Hadley Wood. The new seat, renamed Southgate & Wood Green, will also be safely Labour, dashing any hopes the Conservatives might have had for a comeback here.
Census data: owner-occupied 66% (331/573 in England & Wales), private rented 24% (73rd), social rented 9% (542nd).
:White 70%, Black 7%, Sth Asian 8%, Mixed 5%, Other 10%
: Managerial & professional 47% (72nd), Routine & Semi-routine 18% (540th)
: Degree 38% (59th), Minimal qualifications 27% (516th)
: Students 7% (119th), Over 65: 15% (394th)
2010 | % | 2015 | % | 2017 | % | 2019 | % | |
Labour | 14,302 | 32.2% | 17,871 | 39.0% | 24,989 | 51.7% | 22,923 | 48.5% |
Conservative | 21,928 | 49.4% | 22,624 | 49.4% | 20,634 | 42.7% | 18,473 | 39.1% |
Liberal Democrat | 6,124 | 13.8% | 1,518 | 3.3% | 1,925 | 4.0% | 4,344 | 9.2% |
UKIP/Brexit | 505 | 1.1% | 2,109 | 4.6% | 494 | 1.0% | ||
Green | 632 | 1.4% | 1,690 | 3.7% | 780 | 1.6% | 1,042 | 2.2% |
Others | 861 | 1.9% | ||||||
Majority | -7626 | -17.2% | -4793 | -10.4% | 4,355 | 9.0% | 4,450 | 9.4% |
)
