Brecon & Radnorshire

[greenhert]

Brecon & Radnorshire was created in 1918 from the constituencies of Breconshire and Radnorshire respectively. It underwent a major boundary change in 1983 when Brynmawr (and the nearby parish of Llanelly, not to be confused with Llanelli in Carmarthenshire) was moved to Blaenau Gwent as a result of restructuring of Welsh local government, with two parishes, Penderyn and Vaynor, being moved to what is now Rhondda Cynon Taf in Mid Glamorgan.

Brecon, or Brecknockshire, is a mainly agricultural county on the Welsh borders which is also known for its international book festival in the town of Hay-on-Wye. Radnorshire is more mountainous than Brecknockshire and includes the old spa town of Llandrindod Wells, although like its neighbour agriculture and tourism are still significant employers. Not a single town in this constituency exceeds 10,000 people; the former industrial town of Ystradgynlais near the border with Glamorgan is the largest town with 9,000 people. Brecon & Radnorshire is geographically the largest constituency in Wales and in terms of British parliamentary constituencies is only exceeded by a few Scottish constituencies in terms of land acreage.

For a rural constituency, Brecon & Radnorshire has a fascinating and changing political history. It started off as a Liberal seat, but the Conservatives won it in 1923 before losing it to Labour in 1929 in what is still one of the closest-ever three-way contests in British parliamentary history (the third placed Liberals missed out by only 369 votes). The Conservatives captured it in 1931, lost it to a National Government-endorsed Ivor Guest in 1935 (the Conservatives did not stand); Labour retook it in 1939 and held it until 1979 when Tom Hooson, cousin of Liberal MP Emlyn Hooson (defeated in Montgomeryshire the same year) won it for the Conservatives. Despite the major boundary change of 1983 Labour still finished second, ahead of the Liberals' Richard Livsey. Tom Hooson died in 1985 and Mr Livsey captured it for the Liberals by 559 votes over Labour in the resulting by-election; the Conservatives' Chris Butler (MP for Warrington South from 1987-92) finished third. Mr Livsey held on by just 56 votes in 1987 but lost it to Jonathan Evans (Conservative MP for Cardiff North from 2010-15) by 130 votes in 1992. Labour were still competitive at this point and it was a target seat in 1997, but Mr Livsey recaptured it with ease. He retired in 2001 and the size of his personal vote became evident when Roger Williams only held on by 751 votes. Mr Williams was defeated by Christopher Davies in 2015, who four years later pleaded guilty to false accounting which resulted in him being recalled by his constituents. Mr Davies was reselected by Brecon & Radnorshire Conservative Association in spite of this but the Conservatives rued their mistake when Jane Dodds won the by-election on a 12% swing, although arguably an intervention by the Brexit Party was also responsible for Mr Davies' defeat. Fay Jones, daughter of Gwilym Jones who was Conservative MP for Cardiff North from 1983-97, recaptured the seat from Mrs Dodds for the Conservatives just four months later at the 2019 general election. This is one of only five Welsh constituencies where Plaid Cymru have never saved their deposit.

[Pete Whitehead]

Builth Wells is in Breconshire isn't it?

[Richard Allen]

Apr 19, 2020 20:10:22 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Builth Wells is in Breconshire isn't it?

Yes it is.

Of course such errors are to be expected when articles are mostly based on the author reading a few wikipedia articles rather than any understanding of the seat in question.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Aside from the few mining villages left, I think Labour does best in Brecon town.

My impression of Hay-on-Wye is that the town centre doesn't actually have that much residential property. Most of the population lives in the west of the town (which is where the single polling station is). And the local economy is not primarily dependent on secondhand book sales, but on agriculture - which is still strongly linked with Conservative voting.

[AdminSTB]

Rather like Portsmouth South, Labour would undoubtedly have won Brecon and Radnor in 1997 had it not been for a by-election held well over a decade earlier.

[Lord Twaddleford]

Apr 19, 2020 21:27:58 GMT AdminSTB said:

Rather like Portsmouth South, Labour would undoubtedly have won Brecon and Radnor in 1997 had it not been for a by-election held well over a decade earlier.

Could've probably held it in 2001 before losing it in 2005, I'd wager.

[Richard Allen]

Apr 19, 2020 21:27:58 GMT AdminSTB said:

Rather like Portsmouth South, Labour would undoubtedly have won Brecon and Radnor in 1997 had it not been for a by-election held well over a decade earlier.

I my not so humble opinion there is plenty of doubt about it. The Liberal party had pretty much achieved parity with Labour here in 1983 and there is every chance that even without the by election they would have emerged as the primary challengers to the Conservatives and taken the seat in 1997.

[AdminSTB]

Apr 19, 2020 22:00:58 GMT Richard Allen said:

Apr 19, 2020 21:27:58 GMT AdminSTB said:

Rather like Portsmouth South, Labour would undoubtedly have won Brecon and Radnor in 1997 had it not been for a by-election held well over a decade earlier.

I my not so humble opinion there is plenty of doubt about it. The Liberal party had pretty much achieved parity with Labour here in 1983 and there is every chance that even without the by election they would have emerged as the primary challengers to the Conservatives and taken the seat in 1997.

I suppose that is a possibility, but frankly it seems unlikely.  There were very few seats in which Labour came second in 1983 and third in 1987 behind the Lib-SDP Alliance (there were many more where the reverse was the case).   
One exception was South East Staffordshire (in fact, were there any others?), which IIRC may have been a result of an unforgiveable error in the vote counting.

[Richard Allen]

Apr 19, 2020 22:25:05 GMT AdminSTB said:

Apr 19, 2020 22:00:58 GMT Richard Allen said:

I my not so humble opinion there is plenty of doubt about it. The Liberal party had pretty much achieved parity with Labour here in 1983 and there is every chance that even without the by election they would have emerged as the primary challengers to the Conservatives and taken the seat in 1997.

I suppose that is a possibility, but frankly it seems unlikely.  There were very few seats in which Labour came second in 1983 and third in 1987 behind the Lib-SDP Alliance (there were many more where the reverse was the case).   
One exception was South East Staffordshire (in fact, were there any others?), which IIRC may have been a result of an unforgiveable error in the vote counting.

That is a fair point but I think this seat was clearly trending away from Labour and while they might have maintained second spot in 1987 I think they would have likely lost it in 1992.

[Deleted]

According to Chris Hanretty's analysis, this was the closest constituency to the country at the referendum.

[Pete Whitehead]

What this profile does require is more discussion about the areas of relative strength for the Conservatives and Lib Dems. This is surely the main point of the exercise, to educate those who may not have that familiarity (and I'd include myself in that). I think most people are aware of the areas of Labour strength in Ystradgynlais and Brecon, but this seat has seen many close battles between Conservatives and Lib Dems over the last few decades and how the various parts of the seat break in those contests is what would be useful to know.
Before the merger in 1918, Radnorshire was one of the most Conservative seats in Wales - not safely so, but often one of only a handful of seats in the principality while Breconshire was solidly Liberal. This was connected to the strong Anglican tradition in Radnorshire. I wonder if similar patterns still apply today?

[Richard Allen]

Apr 20, 2020 11:55:32 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

What this profile does require is more discussion about the areas of relative strength for the Conservatives and Lib Dems. This is surely the main point of the exercise, to educate those who may not have that familiarity (and I'd include myself in that). I think most people are aware of the areas of Labour strength in Ystradgynlais and Brecon, but this seat has seen many close battles between Conservatives and Lib Dems over the last few decades and how the various parts of the seat break in those contests is what would be useful to know.
Before the merger in 1918, Radnorshire was one of the most Conservative seats in Wales - not safely so, but often one of only a handful of seats in the principality while Breconshire was solidly Liberal. This was connected to the strong Anglican tradition in Radnorshire. I wonder if similar patterns still apply today?

Obviously local elections don't us all that much apart from pointing to obvious Lib Dem strength in eastern Breconshire. I wonder if there is something of a divide between areas that are more reliant on tourism and those that are primarily agricultural.

[bjornhattan]

Apr 20, 2020 11:55:32 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

What this profile does require is more discussion about the areas of relative strength for the Conservatives and Lib Dems. This is surely the main point of the exercise, to educate those who may not have that familiarity (and I'd include myself in that). I think most people are aware of the areas of Labour strength in Ystradgynlais and Brecon, but this seat has seen many close battles between Conservatives and Lib Dems over the last few decades and how the various parts of the seat break in those contests is what would be useful to know.
Before the merger in 1918, Radnorshire was one of the most Conservative seats in Wales - not safely so, but often one of only a handful of seats in the principality while Breconshire was solidly Liberal. This was connected to the strong Anglican tradition in Radnorshire. I wonder if similar patterns still apply today?

The difficulty is that local elections around here are a poor guide to general election performance - there are a huge number of independent candidates, and local factors are much more important than national politics in deciding who gets elected. The main areas of Lib Dem strength seem to be around Crickhowell and the surrounding areas, which is relatively affluent for the area, and will have been fairly strong for Remain. Conservatives get stronger the further north you go, especially around Llandrindod, but most of Radnorshire is an independent stronghold. I would imagine the Independent vote mainly falls behind the Conservatives, since the Lib Dem vote is stronger than the Conservatives locally, but this is reversed at a general election, and so it's likely there's still a split between Breconshire and Radnorshire.

But really it's seats like this where only those with local knowledge will have an accurate guide to how the different parts of the constituency behave - the rest of us can only guess.

[Pete Whitehead]

Apr 20, 2020 12:16:44 GMT Richard Allen said:

Apr 20, 2020 11:55:32 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

What this profile does require is more discussion about the areas of relative strength for the Conservatives and Lib Dems. This is surely the main point of the exercise, to educate those who may not have that familiarity (and I'd include myself in that). I think most people are aware of the areas of Labour strength in Ystradgynlais and Brecon, but this seat has seen many close battles between Conservatives and Lib Dems over the last few decades and how the various parts of the seat break in those contests is what would be useful to know.
Before the merger in 1918, Radnorshire was one of the most Conservative seats in Wales - not safely so, but often one of only a handful of seats in the principality while Breconshire was solidly Liberal. This was connected to the strong Anglican tradition in Radnorshire. I wonder if similar patterns still apply today?

Obviously local elections don't us all that much apart from pointing to obvious Lib Dem strength in eastern Breconshire. I wonder if there is something of a divide between areas that are more reliant on tourism and those that are primarily agricultural.

Indeed they don't which is why it would be best, particularly in cases like this, if profiles were put together by people who have some kind of local knowledge. There are a number of people on this forum who will have campaigned in the recent by-election here (possibly the general election too) and they would have a good idea about this.

[andrewp]

Apr 20, 2020 12:23:51 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Apr 20, 2020 12:16:44 GMT Richard Allen said:

Obviously local elections don't us all that much apart from pointing to obvious Lib Dem strength in eastern Breconshire. I wonder if there is something of a divide between areas that are more reliant on tourism and those that are primarily agricultural.

Indeed they don't which is why it would be best, particularly in cases like this, if profiles were put together by people who have some kind of local knowledge. There are a number of people on this forum who will have campaigned in the recent by-election here (possibly the general election too) and they would have a good idea about this.

Not only does the presence of Independents make extrapolating local election results more difficult, but this is the type of area where any party can win almost any ward with the right candidate. In the 2017 locals, Hay on Wye voted 71% Lib Dem, 29% Conservative, but I share David Boothroyds view that the Conservatives would have carried it at the GE.

I would think the Lib Dem’s are stronger in the South. Richard Livsey’s base was in Talgarth and that is an area of Lib Dem strength.

[LDCaerdydd]

Apr 19, 2020 21:00:51 GMT @barnabymarder said:

This is the only seat which was designated a target seat by Labour in 1997 and was not actually won.

The Labour Candidate here in May 1997 was Chris Mann who beat future AMs Carwyn Jones, Peter Law and Jeff Cuthburt for the nomination.

In the 1997 BBC election coverage Peter Snow included Ceredigion and Bermondsey in there swingomiter as two seats that escaped the Labour wave.

I know that Hag Harries who was the labour candidate in Ceredigion was active in campaigning and was attending away day style training and mentoring for candidates so certainly put more effort and thought into his campaign than some of the labour candidates who followed him.

[Sibboleth]

Apr 19, 2020 21:08:57 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Aside from the few mining villages left, I think Labour does best in Brecon town.

In local elections very much so. Of course, the Labour vote in both the Upper Swansea Valley and Brecon town happens to be very heavy on the sort of people whose response to Late Period Corbyn Labour was 'vomit'.

[Sibboleth]

Apart from Rhayader, Radnorsheer is very Conservative, most of the time. Tudor Watkins was known to have a solid vote there, but that was a personal thing and also over fifty years ago.

[cibwr]

Of course Vaynor went into Merthyr rather than RCT...

[Penddu]

On a point of order...no parishes were transferred. Wards or Communities maybe but there have been no civil parishes in Wales since 1974.