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Post by greenhert on Apr 19, 2020 19:40:31 GMT
The constituency of Montgomeryshire ("Sir Drefaldwyn" in Welsh) was created in 1542 and comprises only the county of the same name. It was officially known as Montgomery until 1997.
Montgomeryshire, the northern part of the larger Welsh county of Powys, is almost wholly mountainous and sparsely populated. Newtown is the only town in Montgomeryshire whose population exceeds 10,000 people (on 2011 census figures). Notable landmarks in Montgomeryshire include Offa's Dyke, designed primarily to define the border between England and Wales, Montgomery Castle, and Powis Castle. Agriculture and tourism are the key sources of employment although the Centre for Alternative Technology is also located here.
Montgomeryshire was once a Liberal stronghold even during the Liberals' nadir (Clement Davies, who was MP for this seat from 1929-62, was Liberal leader from 1945-56) but is now a safe Conservative seat like so many rural seats. From 1880 to 1979 it continuously elected Liberal MPs (discounting Clement Davies' brief time in the National Liberals) with Delwyn Williams' Conservative interruption lasting only 4 years; he was unseated by Alex Carlile in 1983 despite actually increasing his vote share by 0.8% on 1979. Mr Carlile retired in 1997 (he left the Liberal Democrats in 2017 long after he became Baron Carlile) and was succeeded by Lembit Opik, notable for his television appearances during his time in Parliament and an affair with Cheeky Girls star Gabriela Irimia. After being embroiled in the expenses scandal, Mr Opik lost the seat on a 12.5% swing to a local farmer, (Edward) Glyn Davies. Jane Dodds, who briefly served as Liberal Democrat MP for Brecon & Radnorshire in 2019, failed badly to win back this seat in 2015 and 2017. Despite being backed by Plaid Cymru and Wales Green Party, the Liberal Democrats fell back a further 2.2% partly because their candidate was not resident anywhere in Wales, let alone Montgomeryshire (he lived in Boris Johnson's constituency, in London!), even though Glyn Davies retired that year. This seat's current MP is Craig Williams, who was Conservative MP for Cardiff North from 2015-17. This is the only constituency in Wales to have never had a Labour MP at any time; Labour have not even finished second here since 1955 and in 1983 it was the only Welsh constituency to record a lost Labour deposit. In 2010, Labour finished fourth behind Plaid Cymru, whose support is relatively limited here.
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,813
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Post by iang on Apr 20, 2020 9:31:06 GMT
It has always struck me that the 2010 result was a relatively rare example of a negative Personal Vote of such proportions.
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,813
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Post by iang on Apr 20, 2020 9:31:30 GMT
some proportion, sorry - mistyped
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Apr 20, 2020 13:36:13 GMT
greenhert You bastard!  I've just finished a 2,000 word version for this seat. I'll proof check it later and post anyway.
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Post by bjornhattan on Apr 20, 2020 13:50:43 GMT
greenhert You bastard! I've just finished a 2,000 word version for this seat. I'll proof check it later and post anyway. The more profiles the merrier! |
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Post by John Chanin on Apr 20, 2020 14:12:18 GMT
Sir Drefaldwyn sounds like a villain out of Cadfael.
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Post by đ´ââ ď¸ Neath West đ´ââ ď¸ on Apr 20, 2020 19:46:14 GMT
Sir Drefaldwyn sounds like a villain out of Cadfael. It also sounds very laboured. The county's called Maldwyn. Sir Faldwyn if you must. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Apr 20, 2020 20:06:17 GMT
Sir Drefaldwyn sounds like a villain out of Cadfael. It also sounds very laboured. The county's called Maldwyn. Sir Faldwyn if you must. I've always known it as Sir Drefaldwyn. But I believe the constituency name is Maldwyn. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Apr 20, 2020 20:10:36 GMT
The constituency of Montgomeryshire ("Sir Drefaldwyn" in Welsh) was created in 1542 and comprises only the county of the same name. It was officially known as Montgomery until 1997. Montgomeryshire, the northern part of the larger Welsh county of Powys, is almost wholly mountainous and sparsely populated. Newtown is the only town in Montgomeryshire whose population exceeds 10,000 people (on 2011 census figures). Notable landmarks in Montgomeryshire include Offa's Dyke, designed primarily to define the border between England and Wales, Montgomery Castle, and Powis Castle. Agriculture and tourism are the key sources of employment although the Centre for Alternative Technology is also located here. Montgomeryshire was once a Liberal stronghold even during the Liberals' nadir (Clement Davies, who was MP for this seat from 1929-62, was Liberal leader from 1945-56) but is now a safe Conservative seat like so many rural seats. From 1880 to 1979 it continuously elected Liberal MPs (discounting Clement Davies' brief time in the National Liberals) with Delwyn Williams' Conservative interruption lasting only 4 years; he was unseated by Alex Carlile in 1983 despite actually increasing his vote share by 0.8% on 1979. Mr Carlile retired in 1997 (he left the Liberal Democrats in 2017 long after he became Baron Carlile) and was succeeded by Lembit Opik, notable for his television appearances during his time in Parliament and an affair with Cheeky Girls star Gabriela Irimia. After being embroiled in the expenses scandal, Mr Opik lost the seat on a 12.5% swing to a local farmer, (Edward) Glyn Davies. Jane Dodds, who briefly served as Liberal Democrat MP for Brecon & Radnorshire in 2019, failed badly to win back this seat in 2015 and 2017. Despite being backed by Plaid Cymru and Wales Green Party, the Liberal Democrats fell back a further 2.2% partly because their candidate was not resident anywhere in Wales, let alone Montgomeryshire (he lived in Boris Johnson's constituency, in London!), even though Glyn Davies retired that year. This seat's current MP is Craig Williams, who was Conservative MP for Cardiff North from 2015-17. This is the only constituency in Wales to have never had a Labour MP at any time; Labour have not even finished second here since 1955 and in 1983 it was the only Welsh constituency to record a lost Labour deposit. In 2010, Labour finished fourth behind Plaid Cymru, whose support is relatively limited here. Is it an "affair" if the participants are single? |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Apr 20, 2020 21:31:42 GMT
The current outermost boundaries of the current seat of Montgomeryshire have remained largely unchanged (bar a few small tweaks) since 1542 and follow the historic boundaries of the old shire county of Montgomeryshire.
As used to be commonplace the principle towns of the area - Llanfyllin, Llanidloes, Machynlleth, Montgomery, Newtown and Welshpool - were part of the Borough seat of Montgomery Boroughs, which existed until 1918 when it was absorbed into the seat we recognise today as Montgomeryshire. The Borough seat flipped numerous times between Tory/Conservatives and the Whigs/Liberals. In 1847 the Borough Seat saw a perfect 50:50 tie between two competing candidates.
The largest settlements in the seat today are Newtown, Welshpool, Machynlleth and Llanidloes. The seat contains natural beauty points of Lake Vyrnwy along with the historical castles of Montgomery and Welshpool, and is home to the seat of Owain Glyndwrâs Parliament building. The seat stretches from the Dyfi Estuary to Offers Dyke and the River Severn runs west to east across most of seat, being spectacularly dammed at Llyn Clywedog. Heavy industry is rare and agriculture is commonplace, and today tourism is a vital part of the areaâs economy.
Machynlleth, on the western most edge of the seat, was the home of Owain Glyndwrâs Parliament and many locals refer to it as the ancient capital of Wales. In 1955 Machynlleth unsuccessfully bid to become the capital of Wales. The town also unsuccessfully bid to become a City in 2002 and 2012. In the 1920s Beatrix Potter visited the town and complained about the âFour hours it took to travel sixty miles between Shrewsbury and Machynllethâ by train, and described the town âwretchedâ where hardly a single person could speak English. She was also irritated that the hotel she had been recommended had been closed for two years. In the 1960s the Centre for Alternative Technology (CAT) was founded in the town and with it came hippies and eccentrics who wanted to escape the fast pace of life and technological changes which were occurring in the 1970s. Regrettably Machynlleth is probably more widely know today due to the disappearance and murder in 2012 of 5 year old April Jones.
Newtown is the seatâs largest town and holds three claims to fame: firstly, as the birth and death place of Robert Owen, who pioneered the co-operative movement; secondly as the location of the worldâs first mail order catalogue business; and most recently as the home for several consecutive years of the worldâs largest Santa run, a 4 mile fun run around the town and itâs nearby estates. Several local pubs sought to take advantage of having thousands of people run past their premises early on a Sunday morning, and the fun run developed a dedicated following of stag like behaviour, with some participants completing the run whilst visiting four local pubs en route. In 2004, Police broke up a brawl which broke out at a town centre pub several hours after the event and arrested five Santas, much to the amusement of the international press.
Montgomeryshire was largely untouched from World War 2 and struggled to benefit from the social fabric improvements which followed. In 1948 only 20% of homes had mains electricity, which had risen to 80% by 1960, while only half of homes had access to their own toilet. Housing improvements were slow and the area didnât benefit from the massive post war housing boom, although an area near Caersws was considered for the construction of a 50,000-strong new town, but that never came to fruition.
In the 1960s the designer Laura Ashely founded her upmarket chain, and a factory remained locally in Carno until the firmâs liquidation in 2020. One of the few large high tech employers in the area today is Control Techniques in Newtown, who opened a factory in the town in the 1980s.
The large geographic spread of the seat made it unusual in not being home to a Sainsburyâs until 2008 and a Tesco until around 2010. The seat must be almost unique in not having a single mile of duael carriageway across its 2000+ sq km.
Today the seat has minimal professional jobs, along with no universities, meaning many local young people leave to seek employment elsewhere. Along with minimal migration into the seat, this has seen population fall over the last 20 years and its age profile sharply rise.
The old county had the distinction of being the only county in England and Wales to have recoded a lower population in the 1951 census than it did in the 1801 census.
The area has minimal international immigration and its population is virtually all White British. Montgomeryshire is estimated to have voted Leave by 56% in the 2016 referendum and the area has been strongly Eurosceptic for some time. UKIP polled strongly here in the 2007 Assembly election finishing 4th with 10% to Labourâs 6%, but the local party had problems and they became disorganised. In 2009 they narrowly beat the Lib Dems and finished second (Con 26.8%, UKIP 18.9%, LD 17.4%). In 2014 the EU results were counted by county and UKIP won across Powys with 27.7% to the Conservatives 27% and LDs 12.9%. In the 2015 general election, on a pro-Farage wave UKIP won a respectable 11.2% finishing third (to Labourâs 4th place with 5.6%,) in 2019âs EU election, The Brexit Party won 35.3% of the vote across Powys, with UKIP picking up a further 3.3%.
And a few words on the constituencyâs MPs...
Montgomeryshire is often mentioned as a former safe seat for the Liberals/Lib Dems, however this is not strictly true. The Liberals first won the seat following the 1890 GE when Stuart Rendel (G-G-Uncle of David Rendel, MP for Newbury (1993-2005)) gained the seat by 191 votes (4.4% of the vote) in a straight two horse fight.
Rendel held the seat in the next three elections wining by 8, 8 and 12% until his retirement 14 years later when he was created 1st Baron Rendel.
The 1894 by-election saw Arthur Humphreys-Owen of the Liberals hold the seat by 225 votes (3.4%). He then held the seat by 27 votes (0.4%) in the 1895 GE and by 264 votes (4%) in the 1900 GE.
Humphreys-Owen died in December 1905 a few weeks before the first 1906 GE when David Davies was returned unopposed. Davies would go on to stand and be returned in the following six elections over the next 22 years being returned unopposed on four occasions and winning by 1,672 votes (23.6%) in 1910 and by 10,558 votes (54.6%) in 1924 (both contests only saw two candidates stand).
1924 was the first election in this seat in which the Labour Party stood and in the absence of the Conservatives directly challenged Davies, who by this point was 44 years old and well known locally having served as Parliamentary Secretary to Lloyd George. He was also a prominent promotor of the League of Nations as well as being a wealthy philanthropist who founded a department in the nearby College of Wales, contributed the equivalent of ÂŁ15million (in 2020 prices) to the King Edward VII Welsh National Memorial (with the aim of eradicating tuberculosis in Wales) as well as serving as president of the National Library of Wales. Davies also paid for and renovated Owain Glywndyrâs former Parliament building in Machynlleth and allowed it to be used by the local community centre.
At the 1929 election Montgomery saw its first ever election contested by three parties and the election of the 34-year-old Kingâs Council Clement Davies by a fairly comfortable majority of 2,128 votes (7.8%). Davies would hold the seat for the next 32 years, which would include his eleven year stint as Liberal Leader. He held the seat until his death in 1962. Davies was returned unopposed twice and in his five contested re-elections he saw his majority fluctuate from 10% to 37%.
Davies long anticipated retirement was announced in December 1960 and saw the selection of local QC Emlyn Hooson in April 1961 who at the time was the youngest QC in the Country and son-in-law of a former constituency chairman Sir George Hamer. Hooson saw off stiff competition for the nomination including from Clement Daviesâ son Stanley and the son of David Davies (Clementâs predecessor) Edward Davies.
Clement Daviesâ death in 1962 caused a by-election. Whilst Davies was nearing the end in hospital papers were drawn up to award him a peerage, although he died before this could be enacted.
The 1962 by-election was won by Emlyn Hooson with a sizable majority of 7,549 (29.4%) of the vote (the highest majority in the seat until 2017). This was a substantial high water mark for both the Liberals and Emlyn Hooson who saw his majority half to 15.6% come the 1966 election, decrease further in 1966 and further still in 1970 before picking up to 16.9% and 14.7% in the two elections of 1974.
If Hooson thought he was safe, he was wrong. Hooson lost the seat in 1979 to Delwyn Williams of the Conservatives by 1,593 votes (5.4%). Williams then increased his vote in the 1983 election but was ousted by new Liberal candidate Alex Carlile by 668 votes. Carlile was a barrister (spot a trend here?) who had previously been appointed a QC at the age of 36.
The Liberal loss in 1979 after 99 years and 9 months of Liberal/semi Liberal control has often been put down to complacency (which was undoubtedly true) and a pro-Conservative UK wide swing (also true). However, Hoosonâs heavy support for devolution in the referendum eight weeks earlier, which saw Powys reject devolution by 4 votes to 1, clearly played a major factor in his defeat too.
Alex Carlile would go on to hold the seat in 1987 and 1992 with little resistance until he unexpectedly announced he would stand down in 1997 at the relatively young age of 49 due to family health issues. Lembit Opik, a Newcastle City Councillor, was the surprising choice of the local party who at short notice was asked to draw up a short list of three by Lib Dem HQ consisting of a minimum of one woman. Opik did not make the original cut, but was included in the final short list after another candidate withdrew. In the first round of voting Opik tied with local farmer and councillor Mick Bates, but Opik pulled far ahead in the second round.
Opik would easily hold the seat in 1997 and then further increase his majority in 2001 and 2005 in line with Lib Dem performance across the country. After the 1997 election he moved to the area and established himself as a credible and high profile MP. He became a media personality, appearing on both serious political shows as well performing well on shows such as HIGNFY. Opik also dated and proposed marriage to âlocalâ TV Weather Girl Sian Lloyd. Their engagement didnât last and ended publicly in the autumn of 2006. The ending of his relationship in 2006, his demotion to (English) Housing spokesperson by Clegg in 2007 and his drubbing by Ros Scott in the 2008 Presedential election clearly all took itâs toll. His behaviour and perception in the later years of his political career which would have been an asset in seats like metropolitan and student heavy Cardiff Central or Sheffield Hallam, proved very damaging in conservative (with a small c) Montgomeryshire.
The biggest factor was the selection of former Conservative AM Glyn Davies to challenge Opik. Davies was selected by open primary in the summer of 2007, and at the age of 63 essentially become a full time campaigner. Coupled with his image as a local farmer, happily married and well known as a former councillor and AM, Davies proved to be the most capable Conservative candidate to ever have contested the seat. It was also probably the first time the Conservatives properly fought the seat, evidenced by a visit from David Cameron on the eve of poll as he toured the four nations of the UK in 24 hours.
It's worth noting at this point whilst Davies' secured the biggest LD>Con swing of 2010, he won by fewer votes and a smaller majority that Delwyn Williams 30 years earlier.
Davies had also been boosted by the improved showing of the Conservative Party in Powys in 2008 where they saw their first Conservative Councillor elected, and the Wales and UK wide pro-Tory swing. In 2015, the Conservatives consolidated their hold on Montgomeryshire largely in line with the Conservativeâs UK wide strength, the Liberal Democratsâ collapse and the largely continued irrelevance locally of Labour.
Davies retired after nine years as an MP in 2019 and successfully handed the seat over to Welshpool-born Craig Williams, who won 59% of the vote â a figure not seen in contested elections in the seat since the then Liberal Leader Clement Davies beat Labour 68% to 32% in 1955.
In the post-2010 boundary revision the proposals to split the seat three ways were widely opposed. What the future for the seat is, is anyoneâs guess, the seat is large and heavily underpopulated by both Welsh and UK standards, the seat will need to expand, being bound to the east by England and touching the Cambrian Coast on the west gives the Boundary Commission limited options.
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Post by timrollpickering on Apr 20, 2020 23:23:14 GMT
Worth noting that Labour's second place in 1955 (and 1951 and 1924) was only because the Conservatives didn't contest the seat that year; they have never come even second in a three or more way contest.
It was historically rare for the winner to have more than 50% in a multi candidate contest - it only happened in 1950 (by 10 votes), the 1962 by-election, 2005, 2017 and 2019.
Clement Davies is not always categorised as a Liberal in the 1931-1942 period - for example in Roy Douglas's 1970 history of the party he considered Montgomery had the longest continuous Liberal representation of any of the seats then held but only since 1939 (when Davies left the Liberal Nationals), perhaps reflecting Douglas's political animosity (he was both a candidate and held various national posts in the Liberals in the 1950s & 1960s when there was much frustration with the National Liberals' continued existence). However the local Liberal Association supported Davies throughout
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Post by Robert Waller on Feb 20, 2021 23:32:14 GMT
2011 Census
Age 65+ 21.4% 78/650
Owner-occupied 67.8% 289/650
Private rented 14.9% 285/650
Social rented 14.9% 356/650
White 98.9% 19/650
Black 0.1% 628/650
Asian 0.4% 647/650
Managerial & professional 27.4%
Routine & Semi-routine 27.7%
Small employers and own account workers 18.5% 1/650
Self employed 17.3% 2/650
Agriculture, forestry and fishing 8.7% 2/650
Skilled trades occupations 21.2% 2/650
Degree level 24.7% 358/650
No qualifications 25.2% 247/650
Students 5.6 % 572/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 66.7% 270/573
Private rented 18.2% 271/573
Social rented 15.1% 290/573
White 98.3%
Black 0.1%
Asian 0.6%
Managerial & professional 28.9% 375/573
Routine & Semi-routine 25.9% 218/573
Degree level 30.2% 326/573
No qualifications 19.4% 221/573
General Election 2019: Montgomeryshire
Party Candidate Votes % Âą%
Conservative Craig Williams 20,020 58.5 +6.7
Liberal Democrats Kishan Devani 7,882 23.0 â2.2
Labour Kait Duerden 5,585 16.3 +0.4
Gwlad Gwlad Gwyn Evans 727 2.1
C Majority 12,138 35.5 +8.9
Turnout 34,214 69.8 â0.3
Registered electors 48,997
Conservative hold
Swing 4.4 LD to C
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Post by where2travel on Feb 21, 2021 11:31:03 GMT
Constituencies which lack dual carriageways There are probably quite a few more if you include some of the smaller urban ones too. For example, I'm struggling to think of one in my home seat, Beckenham. |
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