Post by Robert Waller on Apr 19, 2020 15:50:03 GMT
At least in its current administrative form, the county of Surrey has not been known for a plethora of critical marginal electoral contests. As in 2019, it has usually returned a complete slate of Conservative MPs. However Guildford does to some extent buck this trend. It has had a Liberal Democrat MP in recent memory, and figured high on that party’s target list last year. Further spice was added by the candidature of the incumbent Tory MP Anne Milton as an ‘anti-Brexit’ independent. As elsewhere in Surrey at Esher & Walton, the outcome was in doubt until the declaration on election night; though in Guildford too, the result did eventually contribute to Boris Johnson’s overall majority of 80 to ‘get Brexit done’, despite its Remain vote of around 56% back in 2016.
Guildford vies with Woking to be classed as the largest town in the county, with a population of around 77,000 in 2011. Town, note, not city, despite the presence of an Anglican cathedral and the name of the local (rather unsuccessful) non-league football team. It is also the home of Surrey University, and includes a wide range of housing neighbourhoods. There are large ex-council estates to the south west (such as Park Barn) and the north west, where Labour front bencher Emily Thornberry spent part of her youth, along with smaller social developments elsewhere, such as in Merrow to the south east. Overall, though, only 13.7% of housing was in the social rented sector at the last census – exactly the average for the South East of England. Rather more typical of the town are the middle class and owner occupied sections like Burpham to the north east and rising up the slopes of the Downs south of the town centre. The constituency boundaries also include villages outside Guildford itself like Worplesdon. The seat does not comprehend the whole of Guildford borough, as parts such as the Horsleys and the Clandons are in Mole Valley, and the area around Ash is in Surrey Heath, but it does stretch into a segment of Waverley, most notably around Cranleigh.
There were already signs that the Conservatives might face a tough challenge in the May 2019 local elections, when they made a net loss of no fewer than 26 seats on Guildford borough council, dropping from 35 councillors to nine. The Liberal Democrats made eight net gains, but the Residents for Guildford and Villages did even more damage, taking 15 council seats. It was unclear how this might translate into General Election support, but things became even more complicated for the Tories when the sitting MP since 2005, Anne Milton, had the whip removed on 3 September 2019 and subsequently announced she would try to retain Guildford as an Independent.
In the event, it is arguable whether the 4,356 (7.3%) votes Anne Milton polled can be regarded as safeguarding the 3,337 majority achieved by her successor as official Conservative candidate, Angela Richardson, because it split the ‘Remain’ share, or whether Milton actually split the Tory vote itself. Probably it was a mixture of the two and therefore this did not determine the outcome of the contest. The Tories undoubtedly suffered such a large drop in majority because of Guildford’s pro-Remain tendencies, but perhaps held on because this was narrowly trumped by this affluent seat’s fear of a Corbyn Prime Ministership. Guildford is in the top 40 seats for both higher managerial and higher professional occupations. As in Esher & Walton, the ‘Brexit election’ of 2019 may well prove to be the Liberal Democrats’ best chance for a while of gaining Guildford, but it might also be recalled that in this case they did hold the seat from 2001 to 2005, when Sue Doughty was the MP, and also they have a solid base on both Guildford and Waverley councils. At the least, even without the Milton factor, this seat should still be considered a plausible potential Liberal Democrat target going into the next election.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 15.7% 404/650
Owner-occupied 66.7% 337/650
Private rented 16.7% 202/650
Social rented 13.7% 413/650
White 89.8% 442/650
Black 1.2% 242/650
Asian 5.6% 200/650
Managerial & professional 41.8%
Routine & Semi-routine 15.1%
Degree level 40.6% 43/650
No qualifications 13.6% 630/650
Students 16.1% 55/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 65.0% 309/573
Private rented 21.4% 172/573
Social rented 13.6% 355/573
White 85.4%
Black 1.5%
Asian 7.6%
Managerial & professional 41.1% 93/573
Routine & Semi-routine 14.1% 543/573
Degree level 45.3% 59/573
No qualifications 11.0% 556/573
General Election 2019: Guildford
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Angela Richardson 26,317 44.9 -9.7
Liberal Democrats Zöe Franklin 22,980 39.2 +15.3
Labour Anne Rouse 4,515 7.7 -11.3
Independent Anne Milton 4,356 7.4 N/A
Peace John Morris 483 0.8 +0.5
C Majority 3,337 5.7 -25.0
Turnout 58,651 75.5 +1.7
Registered electors 77,729
Conservative hold
Swing 12.5 C to LD
Guildford vies with Woking to be classed as the largest town in the county, with a population of around 77,000 in 2011. Town, note, not city, despite the presence of an Anglican cathedral and the name of the local (rather unsuccessful) non-league football team. It is also the home of Surrey University, and includes a wide range of housing neighbourhoods. There are large ex-council estates to the south west (such as Park Barn) and the north west, where Labour front bencher Emily Thornberry spent part of her youth, along with smaller social developments elsewhere, such as in Merrow to the south east. Overall, though, only 13.7% of housing was in the social rented sector at the last census – exactly the average for the South East of England. Rather more typical of the town are the middle class and owner occupied sections like Burpham to the north east and rising up the slopes of the Downs south of the town centre. The constituency boundaries also include villages outside Guildford itself like Worplesdon. The seat does not comprehend the whole of Guildford borough, as parts such as the Horsleys and the Clandons are in Mole Valley, and the area around Ash is in Surrey Heath, but it does stretch into a segment of Waverley, most notably around Cranleigh.
There were already signs that the Conservatives might face a tough challenge in the May 2019 local elections, when they made a net loss of no fewer than 26 seats on Guildford borough council, dropping from 35 councillors to nine. The Liberal Democrats made eight net gains, but the Residents for Guildford and Villages did even more damage, taking 15 council seats. It was unclear how this might translate into General Election support, but things became even more complicated for the Tories when the sitting MP since 2005, Anne Milton, had the whip removed on 3 September 2019 and subsequently announced she would try to retain Guildford as an Independent.
In the event, it is arguable whether the 4,356 (7.3%) votes Anne Milton polled can be regarded as safeguarding the 3,337 majority achieved by her successor as official Conservative candidate, Angela Richardson, because it split the ‘Remain’ share, or whether Milton actually split the Tory vote itself. Probably it was a mixture of the two and therefore this did not determine the outcome of the contest. The Tories undoubtedly suffered such a large drop in majority because of Guildford’s pro-Remain tendencies, but perhaps held on because this was narrowly trumped by this affluent seat’s fear of a Corbyn Prime Ministership. Guildford is in the top 40 seats for both higher managerial and higher professional occupations. As in Esher & Walton, the ‘Brexit election’ of 2019 may well prove to be the Liberal Democrats’ best chance for a while of gaining Guildford, but it might also be recalled that in this case they did hold the seat from 2001 to 2005, when Sue Doughty was the MP, and also they have a solid base on both Guildford and Waverley councils. At the least, even without the Milton factor, this seat should still be considered a plausible potential Liberal Democrat target going into the next election.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 15.7% 404/650
Owner-occupied 66.7% 337/650
Private rented 16.7% 202/650
Social rented 13.7% 413/650
White 89.8% 442/650
Black 1.2% 242/650
Asian 5.6% 200/650
Managerial & professional 41.8%
Routine & Semi-routine 15.1%
Degree level 40.6% 43/650
No qualifications 13.6% 630/650
Students 16.1% 55/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 65.0% 309/573
Private rented 21.4% 172/573
Social rented 13.6% 355/573
White 85.4%
Black 1.5%
Asian 7.6%
Managerial & professional 41.1% 93/573
Routine & Semi-routine 14.1% 543/573
Degree level 45.3% 59/573
No qualifications 11.0% 556/573
General Election 2019: Guildford
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Angela Richardson 26,317 44.9 -9.7
Liberal Democrats Zöe Franklin 22,980 39.2 +15.3
Labour Anne Rouse 4,515 7.7 -11.3
Independent Anne Milton 4,356 7.4 N/A
Peace John Morris 483 0.8 +0.5
C Majority 3,337 5.7 -25.0
Turnout 58,651 75.5 +1.7
Registered electors 77,729
Conservative hold
Swing 12.5 C to LD
