Orpington

[greenhert]

The Orpington constituency was created in 1945 from parts of Chislehurst and Dartford, and was technically in Kent until its unwilling incorporation into Greater London in 1965. Its boundaries have changed often during that period but it has always been the eastern constituency of the London Borough of Bromley. The most crucial boundary changes came in 1997 when Biggin Hill and Darwin were added from the abolished Ravensbourne constituency.

Orpington is one of the least urbanised constituencies in the Greater London area. As well as the eponymous town on the border with Kent of which it was once part, it also contains the villages of Biggin Hill (one of the smallest places to have an airport), Darwin, St Mary Cray, Farnborough (not to be confused with the one in Hampshire), and Chelsfield. Orpington mainly consists of stereotypical Outer London suburbia-desirable detached and semi-detached houses. With an owner occupation rate of nearly 80%, Orpington has one of the highest levels of owner occupation amongst UK Parliament constituencies and its proportion of private renters and social renters are both less than half the Greater London average. Its profile resembles more that of a constituency in Kent than in London; on 2011 census statistics, level 1 and 2 qualification levels are higher than average and the proportion of graduates is considerably lower than the Greater London average, its population is 90% white, and almost half the population is over the age of 45.

Psephologically, Orpington is most famous for the 1962 by-election won by Eric Lubbock, which started an important revival for the Liberals. Eric Lubbock held the seat for the next 8 years until his defeat in 1970 by the Conservatives' Ivor Stanbrook; he quoted that "in 1962, the wise, far-seeking people of Orpington elected me as their Member; in 1970 the fools threw me out". The following year, upon the death of his cousin Mr Lubbock (as he was then) became the 4th Baron Avebury, and thus Lord Avebury from that point on until his death in 2016. In February 1974 it was unsurprisingly a top Liberal target but in the end it was one of only two seats where the Liberal vote actually fell. Lord Avebury's wife fared no better in trying to capture the seat in October that year. Mr Stanbrook retired in 1992 and was succeeded by John Horam, who unusually had been a Labour then SDP MP for Gateshead West from 1970-83. Liberal Democrat attempts to unseat him throughout the Blair years were valiant but ultimately unsuccessful; the closest they came was in 2001 when Chris Maines missed out by only 269 votes. In 2010, Jo Johnson, brother of then Mayor of London and now Prime Minister Boris Johnson was elected and managed a 12.2% swing against the Liberal Democrats; that year Mr Maines, a well-known councillor in the area, did not contest the seat. The Liberal Democrats subsequently lost all their council seats in this constituency and endured a collapse to a humiliating 4th place in 2015. They made some recovery in 2019 when this constituency's current MP, Gareth Bacon, first stood but they still finished third behind Labour. This is now the safest Conservative seat in Greater London.

[sdoerr]

Is there a village of Darwin, or do you mean Downe, where Charles Darwin lived?

[iang]

Darwin is the name of the ward. Down House, where Darwin lived, is an English Heritage property, and well worth visiting

[thisguy]

Apr 18, 2020 11:32:07 GMT sdoerr said:

Is there a village of Darwin, or do you mean Downe, where Charles Darwin lived?

In modern times, this is also the home of a certain Nigel Farage.

[where2travel]

If you're listing villages in the constituency, it's a shame not to include Pratt's Bottom.

[Pete Whitehead]

No part of Dartford went into the new Orpington constituency in 1945

[greenhert]

Apr 18, 2020 16:34:47 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

No part of Dartford went into the new Orpington constituency in 1945

I was talking about the constituency of Dartford, not the town. The 1945-74 boundaries of Orpington included "part of the rural district of Dartford".

[Pete Whitehead]

Apr 18, 2020 17:01:44 GMT greenhert said:

Apr 18, 2020 16:34:47 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

No part of Dartford went into the new Orpington constituency in 1945

I was talking about the constituency of Dartford, not the town. The 1945-74 boundaries of Orpington included "part of the rural district of Dartford".

It was obvious you were referring to the constituencies of Chislehurst and Dartford in your opening statement and I gave no indication that I believed you to be referring to the town of Dartford.
To be clear then, no part of Dartford constituency went into the new Orpington constituency in 1945. The 1950-55 boundaries of Orpington included part of Dartford RD but that part had previously been in Chislehurst

[timrollpickering]

Is there a reason why the Lib Dems had such a poor result in 2010 - their worst since 1959?

[froome]

Apr 18, 2020 13:59:00 GMT iang said:

Darwin is the name of the ward. Down House, where Darwin lived, is an English Heritage property, and well worth visiting

But the village's name is Downe, and if listing the places that constitute the constituency, this should be mentioned rather than Darwin. If wards are going to be listed instead, then it should explicitly say so.

[froome]

Jun 25, 2020 0:19:26 GMT timrollpickering said:

Is there a reason why the Lib Dems had such a poor result in 2010 - their worst since 1959?

I don't know anything about 2010, but the subsequent voting patterns in this constituency following the famous by-election win do make this perhaps the most unlikely of Liberal wins. The constituency is deeply conservative with both a small and large C, and always has been, but to quote a song that was popular at the time, there was definitely 'something in the air' at the time of the by-election. I remember an extraordinary frisson of excitement at my school, which included some children from here, in the week before the by-election, and even more so just after it.

[No Offence Alan]

Jun 25, 2020 0:19:26 GMT timrollpickering said:

Is there a reason why the Lib Dems had such a poor result in 2010 - their worst since 1959?

Chris Maines was no longer the Lib Dem candidate and it was "de-targetted".

[timrollpickering]

The results over decades show more to the Lib Dem result than just one candidate - was the party consistently targeting it for nearly 40 years after losing Lubbock in 1970?

[finsobruce]

Jun 25, 2020 3:51:16 GMT froome said:

Jun 25, 2020 0:19:26 GMT timrollpickering said:

Is there a reason why the Lib Dems had such a poor result in 2010 - their worst since 1959?

I don't know anything about 2010, but the subsequent voting patterns in this constituency following the famous by-election win do make this perhaps the most unlikely of Liberal wins. The constituency is deeply conservative with both a small and large C, and always has been, but to quote a song that was popular at the time, there was definitely 'something in the air' at the time of the by-election. I remember an extraordinary frisson of excitement at my school, which included some children from here, in the week before the by-election, and even more so just after it.

By election was 1962, "Something in the Air" was 1969.

There was of course a previous by election in 1955, where the Liberals hadn't even stood and Margaret Thatcher had been narrowly beaten to the Conservative nomination. The Labour candidate (as in 1951 and the 1955 general) was R David Vaughan Williams a cousin of the composer.

[The Bishop]

Jun 25, 2020 3:51:16 GMT froome said:

Jun 25, 2020 0:19:26 GMT timrollpickering said:

Is there a reason why the Lib Dems had such a poor result in 2010 - their worst since 1959?

I don't know anything about 2010, but the subsequent voting patterns in this constituency following the famous by-election win do make this perhaps the most unlikely of Liberal wins. The constituency is deeply conservative with both a small and large C, and always has been, but to quote a song that was popular at the time, there was definitely 'something in the air' at the time of the by-election. I remember an extraordinary frisson of excitement at my school, which included some children from here, in the week before the by-election, and even more so just after it.

Very loose definition there, said song was a hit in 1969 - seven years after the byelection.

[froome]

Jun 25, 2020 10:40:51 GMT The Bishop said:

Jun 25, 2020 3:51:16 GMT froome said:

I don't know anything about 2010, but the subsequent voting patterns in this constituency following the famous by-election win do make this perhaps the most unlikely of Liberal wins. The constituency is deeply conservative with both a small and large C, and always has been, but to quote a song that was popular at the time, there was definitely 'something in the air' at the time of the by-election. I remember an extraordinary frisson of excitement at my school, which included some children from here, in the week before the by-election, and even more so just after it.

Very loose definition there, said song was a hit in 1969 - seven years after the byelection.

Yup, but both were in the 60s, which was close enough for me.

The point, though, was that it definitely felt like 'something was in the air' at the time.

[Robert Waller]

2011 Census

Owner-occupied 79.7% 14/650
Private rented 7.9% 637/650
Social rented 10.7% 552/650
White 90.0% 439/650
Black 3.1% 136/650
Asian 4.2% 259/650
Managerial & professional 38.2%
Routine & Semi-routine 17.4%
Degree level 28.4% 226/650
No qualifications 20.0% 457/650
Students 6.6% 356/650
Age 65+ 19.6% 153/650

2021 Census

Owner occupied 78.4% 16/573
Private rented 11.4% 560/573
Social rented 10.3% 507/573
White 80.4%
Black 5.0%
Asian 9.6%
Managerial & professional 42.4% 66/573
Routine & Semi-routine 15.5% 514/573
Degree level 37.2% 150/573
No qualifications 15.4% 414/573




General Election 2019: Orpington

Party Candidate Votes % ±%

Conservative Gareth Bacon 30,882 63.4 +0.5
Labour Simon Jeal 8,504 17.5 -6.9
Liberal Democrats Allan Tweddle 7,552 15.5 +8.9
Green Karen Wheller 1,783 3.7 +1.6

C Majority 22,378 45.9 +7.4

Turnout 48,721 70.7 -3.6

Registered electors 68,884

Conservative hold

Swing 3.7 Lab to C

[greenhert]

Feb 8, 2021 19:30:25 GMT Robert Waller said:

2011 Census

Owner-occupied 79.7% 14/650
Private rented 7.9% 637/650
Social rented 10.7% 552/650
White 90.0% 439/650
Black 3.1% 136/650
Asian 4.2% 259/650
Managerial & professional 38.2%
Routine & Semi-routine 17.4%
Degree level 28.4% 226/650
No qualifications 20.0% 457/650
Students 6.6% 356/650
Age 65+ 19.6% 153/650


General Election 2019: Orpington

Party Candidate Votes % ±%

Conservative Gareth Bacon 30,882 63.4 +0.5
Labour Simon Jeal 8,504 17.5 -6.9
Liberal Democrats Allan Tweddle 7,552 15.5 +8.9
Green Karen Wheller 1,783 3.7 +1.6

C Majority 22,378 45.9 +7.4

Turnout 48,721 70.7 -3.6

Registered electors 68,884

Conservative hold

Swing 3.7 Lab to C

I did say it was the safest Conservative seat in Greater London-and this is why.

[where2travel]

I've just seen some data (from 2013) which shows the London wards by population, area and then population density. Darwin ward has the smallest population and the largest area, and its population density is just 181 people per square kilometer.

The next lowest but with a big gap is Harefield (500), and there are only four more less than 1,000 (Heathrow Villages, Upminster, Rainham & Wennington and Chase). Not surprisingly all of them are on the outer border of Greater London.

Three other Orpington wards also make the list of ten least densely populated London wards: Chelsfield & Pratt's Bottom (8th), Cray Valley East (9th) and Biggin Hill (10th).

[londonseal80]

Feb 8, 2021 21:29:16 GMT greenhert said:

Feb 8, 2021 19:30:25 GMT Robert Waller said:

2011 Census

Owner-occupied 79.7% 14/650
Private rented 7.9% 637/650
Social rented 10.7% 552/650
White 90.0% 439/650
Black 3.1% 136/650
Asian 4.2% 259/650
Managerial & professional 38.2%
Routine & Semi-routine 17.4%
Degree level 28.4% 226/650
No qualifications 20.0% 457/650
Students 6.6% 356/650
Age 65+ 19.6% 153/650


General Election 2019: Orpington

Party Candidate Votes % ±%

Conservative Gareth Bacon 30,882 63.4 +0.5
Labour Simon Jeal 8,504 17.5 -6.9
Liberal Democrats Allan Tweddle 7,552 15.5 +8.9
Green Karen Wheller 1,783 3.7 +1.6

C Majority 22,378 45.9 +7.4

Turnout 48,721 70.7 -3.6

Registered electors 68,884

Conservative hold

Swing 3.7 Lab to C

I did say it was the safest Conservative seat in Greater London-and this is why.

Yes indeed it has more in common with areas like Epsom and Chigwell than most of London, some bits of Hillingdon and Sutton are quite similar I suppose but not a very London seat that’s for sure.