Post by bungle on Apr 18, 2020 9:15:54 GMT
This now completes the constituencies in the southern end of Derbyshire. I see there is still a way to go elsewhere in the East Midlands....
Mid Derbyshire
When the Boundary Commission reaches for the designation ‘Mid‘ you can be sure that what is proposed is going to be a constituency lacking in a strong identity whose chief reason for existence is to make all the other bits fit together. Certainly looking at Mid Bedfordshire this is arguable and the old Mid Staffordshire proves the latter point when it was split four-ways once abolished in 1997. But here in Mid Derbyshire those charges would be somewhat unfair; it is in fact a far more compact and sensible seat than its name or shape suggests.
This is very much a new constituency created in 2010 – the 11th Derbyshire seat. The challenge in the Fifth Periodical Review was that the level of housing growth across Derby and Derbyshire had finally tipped the scales in favour of creating an 11th constituency. The simple challenge was how to divide the map to avoid too much disruption. As was noted in the Derby North profile, the City of Derby is eligible for around 2.4/2.5 seats so has long been reconciled to parts of the city being placed elsewhere. The original recommendation was to take the north east wards of Derby (Oakwood, Spondon and Chaddesden) and couple them with territory from Erewash while heading north east up the A608 and ending up in Heanor. This would have resulted in changes to Amber Valley (becoming Belper & Ripley) and an odd West/South division in Derby.
At the resulting enquiry there was virtual unanimity across the usual suspects that this proposal did not accord with local communications, services and organisations. The link between Derby and Heanor is reasonably weak, whereas the links up the A6 through the Derwent Valley to Belper are far stronger. This gave birth to the counter proposal of a Mid Derbyshire to include a different set of three Derby wards (Allestree instead of Chaddesden), the Derwent Valley and some rural and commuter territory from Erewash and Amber Valley CCs was strongly supported on the ground. There was much obsession with the shape – and it does look like a rabbit sitting on two eggs – but when one considers the sprawling oddness of the old Belper CC constituency, this was hardly something unusual for this part of Derbyshire. The Commission gave in and Mid Derbyshire was born.
From the start, this was always going to be reasonably reliable Conservative seat with a notional majority of around 5,000 based on the 2005 GE. There was plenty here for Labour to be thrilled about. The three Derby wards which came into the consistency were all previously in Derby North – a key marginal. By the late 2000s the three wards concerned – Allestree, Oakwood and Spondon – were the most reliable Conservative wards in the city and their removal from Derby North made all the difference for Labour in 2010. Allestree (11,000 electors) has a huge Tory pedigree; in the 1970s/80s it regularly voted 70-80% Conservative in local elections and in the 1996 all-outs it was the only ward in Derby to elect a full complement of Conservative councillors. Named after Allestree Park (one of a few local stately homes that got incorporated into the city) it is a large suburban estate of 1960s/70s private family sized homes built on land between the Kedleston and Duffield Roads beyond the A38. This means its age profile is a bit older than the rest of Derby – many families have now been here 40 – 50 years – but they are very reliable Conservative voters.
Oakwood and Spondon (both 10,000 electors) are not connected to Allestree but are on the north-eastern side of Derby. Oakwood used to form part of the Breadsall ward but the latter had grown from some 9,000 elections in the 1970s to 16,000 in the late 90s so needed to be slimmed down. The growth here was another large private, family-sized housing estate which became designated as Oakwood. Those with good wages seeking family homes during that 1980s/90s period were likely to arrive somewhere like here or Mickleover and brought attitudes sympathetic but not loyal to the Conservative Party. Since 2002 the ward has solely focused on the Oakwood estate which has allowed the Conservatives to reasonably strengthen their grip. There was a brief flirtation with the Lib Dems in 2008 (poor candidate choice by the Tories) but the local ‘character’ who was victorious merely used the Lib Dems as a one night stand when he promptly defected to the Conservatives. Labour came close in 2011 and 2012 but haven’t mounted a credible challenge since. Spondon is different to both Allestree and Oakwood; it is very much a village within Derby and still maintains a parochial mentality despite its size. What it does have in common is a default Tory setting; however, during the 1980s/90s, Labour were very competitive here with some strong local campaigning candidates. Candidate choice matters – if you aren’t from Spondon you won’t get the votes. One look at the 1996 local election results here will clearly indicate which Labour candidate wasn’t from the area.
To the north of Allestree going up the A6 the constituency contains the Amber Valley wards of Duffield and Belper North, Central, East and South. This was all territory that arrived from West Derbyshire CC. Duffield is a very comfortable commuter village which was natural Tory territory, even during the 1990s. That said, the Greens have worked the ward hard and finally got rewarded with a gain here in 2019 but this is unlikely to make more than a ripple at parliamentary level. Belper is a town based around the River Derwent which brought its early prosperity through the establishment of several textile mills. The railway which bisects the middle of the town through a deep cutting also brought stronger communications for industry and business but subsequently its proximity to Derby means it is a commuter town for Derby and beyond. The local economy has adjusted to its post-industrial existence mainly through retail, services and local SMEs. There is a good mixture of housing types here - some tight knit terraced housing in the centre and some small/cheaper build private housing in areas like Far Laund. Belper is famous for giving its name to a constituency in existence until 1983 (which from 1945-1970 had George Brown as its MP). However, this nomenclature is somewhat misleading as Belper town was the northern outpost of that seat which was from 1950 focused on the area south of Derby.
Belper is very sensitive to political trends and can be seen as classic marginal territory. Its results often deliver a cliff-hanger. At a county level the division has been won by Labour by 41 votes in 1993, 29 votes in 1997 and 28 votes in 2005. The county division is now focused solely on the Central and East wards but it still delivers good contests: in 2013 Labour by 180; in 2017 Conservative by 124. In recent years (post 2015) there has been a distinct trend of a better than expected performance by Labour in local elections in Belper compared to the prevailing local and national trends. Labour now hold all 8 of the Belper seats at district level which is key to their rather surprising current control of Amber Valley DC. The 2017 county result for the Tories in Belper was also pretty underwhelming given their strong performance in Derbyshire and elsewhere that year. Is Belper changing demographics? Should Jeremy Corbyn move here being a place that simply saw the way, truth and the light? We need to see some further trend data emerge and the next census will help pinpoint what is shifting. But there is something happening here which is very much counter to that of nearby places like Heanor and Ripley.
The remaining territory that makes up Mid Derbyshire is on its eastern side and largely came in from Erewash CC. The Erewash district wards of West Hallam & Dale Abbey, Ockbrook & Borrowash and Little Eaton & Stanley are all comfortable and reasonably affluent commuter areas either for Derby or Nottingham. These are largely overgrown villages with private housing estates but some of this territory is still distinctly rural with villages that have protected themselves from such growth. This is solid Conservative territory at the local level. Removing these wards from Erewash CC gave Labour a good boost there but it wasn’t enough in 2010 to repel the Conservative charge.
Since 2010 Mid Derbyshire has been represented throughout by Pauline Latham. She is a long standing resident in Mid Derbyshire based in the village of Little Eaton but for her political activity she always focused on the city of Derby (where her husband is a prominent architect). She cut her political teeth in a campaign to stop Derbyshire County Council closing the 6th form at a school in Duffield and got elected to the County Council for Breadsall in a by-election in 1987. Her strident tone didn’t endear her to many opposition activists and they delighted when she was toppled from the county division in 1993. She had by then become a City Councillor for Breadsall in 1992 but lost re-election in 1996. Returning to the council in 1998 she started to focus on higher targets, contesting the marginal Broxtowe CC in 2001 and then being placed on the 2004 Euro list for the East Midlands in a position where it was expected she would be elected. Therefore it was little surprise to see her comfortably selected as candidate for the new Mid Derbyshire seat. By 2024 it is likely she will retire (she will be 76) so unless the Boundary Commission intervene again there is a reasonably safe birth here for another Conservative. However, this sort of seat could throw up a surprise result at some point in the future, especially if there is a combination of propitious national trends, demographic shifts and local campaigning.
Mid Derbyshire
When the Boundary Commission reaches for the designation ‘Mid‘ you can be sure that what is proposed is going to be a constituency lacking in a strong identity whose chief reason for existence is to make all the other bits fit together. Certainly looking at Mid Bedfordshire this is arguable and the old Mid Staffordshire proves the latter point when it was split four-ways once abolished in 1997. But here in Mid Derbyshire those charges would be somewhat unfair; it is in fact a far more compact and sensible seat than its name or shape suggests.
This is very much a new constituency created in 2010 – the 11th Derbyshire seat. The challenge in the Fifth Periodical Review was that the level of housing growth across Derby and Derbyshire had finally tipped the scales in favour of creating an 11th constituency. The simple challenge was how to divide the map to avoid too much disruption. As was noted in the Derby North profile, the City of Derby is eligible for around 2.4/2.5 seats so has long been reconciled to parts of the city being placed elsewhere. The original recommendation was to take the north east wards of Derby (Oakwood, Spondon and Chaddesden) and couple them with territory from Erewash while heading north east up the A608 and ending up in Heanor. This would have resulted in changes to Amber Valley (becoming Belper & Ripley) and an odd West/South division in Derby.
At the resulting enquiry there was virtual unanimity across the usual suspects that this proposal did not accord with local communications, services and organisations. The link between Derby and Heanor is reasonably weak, whereas the links up the A6 through the Derwent Valley to Belper are far stronger. This gave birth to the counter proposal of a Mid Derbyshire to include a different set of three Derby wards (Allestree instead of Chaddesden), the Derwent Valley and some rural and commuter territory from Erewash and Amber Valley CCs was strongly supported on the ground. There was much obsession with the shape – and it does look like a rabbit sitting on two eggs – but when one considers the sprawling oddness of the old Belper CC constituency, this was hardly something unusual for this part of Derbyshire. The Commission gave in and Mid Derbyshire was born.
From the start, this was always going to be reasonably reliable Conservative seat with a notional majority of around 5,000 based on the 2005 GE. There was plenty here for Labour to be thrilled about. The three Derby wards which came into the consistency were all previously in Derby North – a key marginal. By the late 2000s the three wards concerned – Allestree, Oakwood and Spondon – were the most reliable Conservative wards in the city and their removal from Derby North made all the difference for Labour in 2010. Allestree (11,000 electors) has a huge Tory pedigree; in the 1970s/80s it regularly voted 70-80% Conservative in local elections and in the 1996 all-outs it was the only ward in Derby to elect a full complement of Conservative councillors. Named after Allestree Park (one of a few local stately homes that got incorporated into the city) it is a large suburban estate of 1960s/70s private family sized homes built on land between the Kedleston and Duffield Roads beyond the A38. This means its age profile is a bit older than the rest of Derby – many families have now been here 40 – 50 years – but they are very reliable Conservative voters.
Oakwood and Spondon (both 10,000 electors) are not connected to Allestree but are on the north-eastern side of Derby. Oakwood used to form part of the Breadsall ward but the latter had grown from some 9,000 elections in the 1970s to 16,000 in the late 90s so needed to be slimmed down. The growth here was another large private, family-sized housing estate which became designated as Oakwood. Those with good wages seeking family homes during that 1980s/90s period were likely to arrive somewhere like here or Mickleover and brought attitudes sympathetic but not loyal to the Conservative Party. Since 2002 the ward has solely focused on the Oakwood estate which has allowed the Conservatives to reasonably strengthen their grip. There was a brief flirtation with the Lib Dems in 2008 (poor candidate choice by the Tories) but the local ‘character’ who was victorious merely used the Lib Dems as a one night stand when he promptly defected to the Conservatives. Labour came close in 2011 and 2012 but haven’t mounted a credible challenge since. Spondon is different to both Allestree and Oakwood; it is very much a village within Derby and still maintains a parochial mentality despite its size. What it does have in common is a default Tory setting; however, during the 1980s/90s, Labour were very competitive here with some strong local campaigning candidates. Candidate choice matters – if you aren’t from Spondon you won’t get the votes. One look at the 1996 local election results here will clearly indicate which Labour candidate wasn’t from the area.
To the north of Allestree going up the A6 the constituency contains the Amber Valley wards of Duffield and Belper North, Central, East and South. This was all territory that arrived from West Derbyshire CC. Duffield is a very comfortable commuter village which was natural Tory territory, even during the 1990s. That said, the Greens have worked the ward hard and finally got rewarded with a gain here in 2019 but this is unlikely to make more than a ripple at parliamentary level. Belper is a town based around the River Derwent which brought its early prosperity through the establishment of several textile mills. The railway which bisects the middle of the town through a deep cutting also brought stronger communications for industry and business but subsequently its proximity to Derby means it is a commuter town for Derby and beyond. The local economy has adjusted to its post-industrial existence mainly through retail, services and local SMEs. There is a good mixture of housing types here - some tight knit terraced housing in the centre and some small/cheaper build private housing in areas like Far Laund. Belper is famous for giving its name to a constituency in existence until 1983 (which from 1945-1970 had George Brown as its MP). However, this nomenclature is somewhat misleading as Belper town was the northern outpost of that seat which was from 1950 focused on the area south of Derby.
Belper is very sensitive to political trends and can be seen as classic marginal territory. Its results often deliver a cliff-hanger. At a county level the division has been won by Labour by 41 votes in 1993, 29 votes in 1997 and 28 votes in 2005. The county division is now focused solely on the Central and East wards but it still delivers good contests: in 2013 Labour by 180; in 2017 Conservative by 124. In recent years (post 2015) there has been a distinct trend of a better than expected performance by Labour in local elections in Belper compared to the prevailing local and national trends. Labour now hold all 8 of the Belper seats at district level which is key to their rather surprising current control of Amber Valley DC. The 2017 county result for the Tories in Belper was also pretty underwhelming given their strong performance in Derbyshire and elsewhere that year. Is Belper changing demographics? Should Jeremy Corbyn move here being a place that simply saw the way, truth and the light? We need to see some further trend data emerge and the next census will help pinpoint what is shifting. But there is something happening here which is very much counter to that of nearby places like Heanor and Ripley.
The remaining territory that makes up Mid Derbyshire is on its eastern side and largely came in from Erewash CC. The Erewash district wards of West Hallam & Dale Abbey, Ockbrook & Borrowash and Little Eaton & Stanley are all comfortable and reasonably affluent commuter areas either for Derby or Nottingham. These are largely overgrown villages with private housing estates but some of this territory is still distinctly rural with villages that have protected themselves from such growth. This is solid Conservative territory at the local level. Removing these wards from Erewash CC gave Labour a good boost there but it wasn’t enough in 2010 to repel the Conservative charge.
Since 2010 Mid Derbyshire has been represented throughout by Pauline Latham. She is a long standing resident in Mid Derbyshire based in the village of Little Eaton but for her political activity she always focused on the city of Derby (where her husband is a prominent architect). She cut her political teeth in a campaign to stop Derbyshire County Council closing the 6th form at a school in Duffield and got elected to the County Council for Breadsall in a by-election in 1987. Her strident tone didn’t endear her to many opposition activists and they delighted when she was toppled from the county division in 1993. She had by then become a City Councillor for Breadsall in 1992 but lost re-election in 1996. Returning to the council in 1998 she started to focus on higher targets, contesting the marginal Broxtowe CC in 2001 and then being placed on the 2004 Euro list for the East Midlands in a position where it was expected she would be elected. Therefore it was little surprise to see her comfortably selected as candidate for the new Mid Derbyshire seat. By 2024 it is likely she will retire (she will be 76) so unless the Boundary Commission intervene again there is a reasonably safe birth here for another Conservative. However, this sort of seat could throw up a surprise result at some point in the future, especially if there is a combination of propitious national trends, demographic shifts and local campaigning.
