Post by European Lefty on Apr 17, 2020 22:28:33 GMT
Luton North
Luton North covers the area of the Bedfordshire town of Luton that lies north of the town centre, and several suburban areas. The diagram below illustrates the utter insanity of these boundaries, as a small patch of built up area is not only outside the constituency, but inexplicably outside the Borough of Luton and in the largely rural unitary authority of Mid Bedfordshire.
Luton has been inhabited since the Palaeolithic era, although the town as it is today is actually not as old as neighbouring Dunstable. The industrial heritage of the town goes back a long way, and in the middle ages there were at least six water mills within Luton. Luton, like most of Bedfordshire, was strongly parliamentarian during the English Civil War and was attacked by royalist forces twice. The hatmaking industry arrived in the town in the 17th century. Within 100 years, the industry had become synonymous with the town: the local football club are still nicknamed The Hatters and the industry still continues, albeit on a smaller scale. Between 1800 and 1900, population of the town grew from 3,095 to around 39,000, driven by the hatmaking industry and rail links to London and nearby towns like Tring and Hitchin. In 1905, Vauxhall Motors opened what was then the largest car plant in the country in Luton and in 1914 it was joined by an aircraft manufacturing plant in the suburb of Leagrave. In addition, there was manufacturing industry in nearby Dunstable, and in and around Houghton Regis a little way to the North and West of Luton. The car plant closed in 2002 and like much of Britain most of the industry in the town and the surrounding area has disappeared. Post war slum clearance led to the building of a lot of new council housing in the town, much of it in Luton North in the Leagrave, Marsh Farm and Limbury areas. Leagrave and Northwell wards (the latter containing the Marsh Farm area) still have very high rates of households renting from the council or equivalent, although the highest rate is in Lewsey ward, neighbouring Leagrave.
Luton North is less deprived than its southern neighbour, and is the 207th most deprived constituency in England, putting it closer to Bedford than either the Luton average or the other Luton seat. Again, the overall figure is only part of the stories: it ranks as the 71st most deprived on the barriers to housing and services metric and it contains LSOAs in all but the richest decile in England, although there are fewer LSOAs at the extremes than there are in Luton South; most are in the middle three deciles. The workforce profile is quite working-class, although less so than that of Luton South. Managerial, professional and technical occupations employ 36.4% of the workforce compared to 47.4% nationally and manual work employs 29.7% in the constituency compared to just 16.4% nationally. Education and Human Health and Social Work are massively over-represented in this constituency, employing 17.3% compared to 8.9% nationally and 30.8% to a national average of 13.2% respectively. Accommodation, wholesale and retail and administrative services are the most significantly under-represented industries. This suggests a high proportion of public sector workers, which might go some way to explaining the political profile of the seat. Finally, unemployment is roughly inline with the national average at 3.9% and people with no qualifications make up 12.4% of the population in Luton North compared 7.8% nationally.
There is also a sizeable ethnic minority population in the ward. British Asians make up a plurality (44%) in Challney and a majority (62%) in Saints ward, the closest to the town centre. People born in Britain also make up just 73% of the constituency compared to 89% of the population nationally. Overall, the constituency is 55% white, 29% Asian and 11% Black African/Caribbean/British. The town has a reputation for having a far-right presence. Although it would be unfair to say that the far-right were popular in the town, they are more so here than in many other places, although thankfully genuinely far-right groups remain very unpopular nationwide. The far-right English Defence League were founded in the town.
Politically, there is something of a mystery here. Both Luton seats have high minority populations, high deprivation and a working-class profile. However, despite Luton South being more deprived, having a more working-class labour profile, a lower proportion of people born in the UK and a larger ethnic minority population, Luton North has been the safer seat for Labour since 2005. This phenomenon is not the result of an anti-Labour trend amongst working-class voters, as both are historically bellwether seats that have trended to the left and become safe Labour seats. The best explanation would seem to be that education and social work are both heavily over-represented in North and under-represented in South which implies a higher number of pubic-sector workers in Luton North.
Politically, both this seats predecessors of Luton West and Luton East, and their predecessor of Luton were bellwether seats: the only blips were a National Liberal win in 1950 a Labour gain in Luton at a 1963 by-election. It is worth mentioning, however, that until 1997, the seat stretched almost exactly halfway to Bedford, including several rural areas from Central Bedfordshire as far north as the village of Flitwick. These areas which are no longer in the constituency area are very heavily Conservative, and without them it is entirely possible that Labour would have won the seat back in 1992, albeit very narrowly. In 1997, Kelvin Hopkins took the seat for Labour on a 17.2% Conservative to Labour swing, although this would have been exacerbated by pro-Labour boundary changes. The LibDem strength that nearly saw them take the council in 2003 never manifested itself here. Not only did the Luton North wards keep Labour the largest party on the council as they lost control, but the LibDems best result ever here was just 15.5% in 2005.
Kelvin Hopkins was one of the few Labour MPs to support a leave vote at the 2016 referendum and is also a supporter of homeopathy. He had the Labour whip withdrawn in 2017 and the party were forced to find a new candidate for the 2019 election. Sarah Owen held the seat with 55.2% of the vote, and in doing so became the UK’s first female British-Chinese MP and Labour’s first MP of East Asian descent. Hopkins’ daughter Rachel replaced Gavin Shuker as MP for Luton South at the same election.
The only Tory councillors in Luton represent wards within this constituency, the suburban wards of Bramingham and Icknield in the seats north eastern corner. The LibDems are comparatively weak, although they do control Sundon Park and Barnfield wards. Icknield, Barnfield and Bramingham are the only wards conceivably not carried by Labour at the last couple of general elections. Social housing virtually non-existent in the latter two and both have very middle-class occupation profiles, quite unlike the rest of the seat, while Icknield is much closer to the seat at large.
Overall, this is a formerly marginal bellwether that has moved quite a considerable difference to the left. Although it’s probably premature to rule the Tories out entirely, it’s certainly difficult to imagine anyone beating Labour in the near future.
Luton North covers the area of the Bedfordshire town of Luton that lies north of the town centre, and several suburban areas. The diagram below illustrates the utter insanity of these boundaries, as a small patch of built up area is not only outside the constituency, but inexplicably outside the Borough of Luton and in the largely rural unitary authority of Mid Bedfordshire.
Luton has been inhabited since the Palaeolithic era, although the town as it is today is actually not as old as neighbouring Dunstable. The industrial heritage of the town goes back a long way, and in the middle ages there were at least six water mills within Luton. Luton, like most of Bedfordshire, was strongly parliamentarian during the English Civil War and was attacked by royalist forces twice. The hatmaking industry arrived in the town in the 17th century. Within 100 years, the industry had become synonymous with the town: the local football club are still nicknamed The Hatters and the industry still continues, albeit on a smaller scale. Between 1800 and 1900, population of the town grew from 3,095 to around 39,000, driven by the hatmaking industry and rail links to London and nearby towns like Tring and Hitchin. In 1905, Vauxhall Motors opened what was then the largest car plant in the country in Luton and in 1914 it was joined by an aircraft manufacturing plant in the suburb of Leagrave. In addition, there was manufacturing industry in nearby Dunstable, and in and around Houghton Regis a little way to the North and West of Luton. The car plant closed in 2002 and like much of Britain most of the industry in the town and the surrounding area has disappeared. Post war slum clearance led to the building of a lot of new council housing in the town, much of it in Luton North in the Leagrave, Marsh Farm and Limbury areas. Leagrave and Northwell wards (the latter containing the Marsh Farm area) still have very high rates of households renting from the council or equivalent, although the highest rate is in Lewsey ward, neighbouring Leagrave.
Luton North is less deprived than its southern neighbour, and is the 207th most deprived constituency in England, putting it closer to Bedford than either the Luton average or the other Luton seat. Again, the overall figure is only part of the stories: it ranks as the 71st most deprived on the barriers to housing and services metric and it contains LSOAs in all but the richest decile in England, although there are fewer LSOAs at the extremes than there are in Luton South; most are in the middle three deciles. The workforce profile is quite working-class, although less so than that of Luton South. Managerial, professional and technical occupations employ 36.4% of the workforce compared to 47.4% nationally and manual work employs 29.7% in the constituency compared to just 16.4% nationally. Education and Human Health and Social Work are massively over-represented in this constituency, employing 17.3% compared to 8.9% nationally and 30.8% to a national average of 13.2% respectively. Accommodation, wholesale and retail and administrative services are the most significantly under-represented industries. This suggests a high proportion of public sector workers, which might go some way to explaining the political profile of the seat. Finally, unemployment is roughly inline with the national average at 3.9% and people with no qualifications make up 12.4% of the population in Luton North compared 7.8% nationally.
There is also a sizeable ethnic minority population in the ward. British Asians make up a plurality (44%) in Challney and a majority (62%) in Saints ward, the closest to the town centre. People born in Britain also make up just 73% of the constituency compared to 89% of the population nationally. Overall, the constituency is 55% white, 29% Asian and 11% Black African/Caribbean/British. The town has a reputation for having a far-right presence. Although it would be unfair to say that the far-right were popular in the town, they are more so here than in many other places, although thankfully genuinely far-right groups remain very unpopular nationwide. The far-right English Defence League were founded in the town.
Politically, there is something of a mystery here. Both Luton seats have high minority populations, high deprivation and a working-class profile. However, despite Luton South being more deprived, having a more working-class labour profile, a lower proportion of people born in the UK and a larger ethnic minority population, Luton North has been the safer seat for Labour since 2005. This phenomenon is not the result of an anti-Labour trend amongst working-class voters, as both are historically bellwether seats that have trended to the left and become safe Labour seats. The best explanation would seem to be that education and social work are both heavily over-represented in North and under-represented in South which implies a higher number of pubic-sector workers in Luton North.
Politically, both this seats predecessors of Luton West and Luton East, and their predecessor of Luton were bellwether seats: the only blips were a National Liberal win in 1950 a Labour gain in Luton at a 1963 by-election. It is worth mentioning, however, that until 1997, the seat stretched almost exactly halfway to Bedford, including several rural areas from Central Bedfordshire as far north as the village of Flitwick. These areas which are no longer in the constituency area are very heavily Conservative, and without them it is entirely possible that Labour would have won the seat back in 1992, albeit very narrowly. In 1997, Kelvin Hopkins took the seat for Labour on a 17.2% Conservative to Labour swing, although this would have been exacerbated by pro-Labour boundary changes. The LibDem strength that nearly saw them take the council in 2003 never manifested itself here. Not only did the Luton North wards keep Labour the largest party on the council as they lost control, but the LibDems best result ever here was just 15.5% in 2005.
Kelvin Hopkins was one of the few Labour MPs to support a leave vote at the 2016 referendum and is also a supporter of homeopathy. He had the Labour whip withdrawn in 2017 and the party were forced to find a new candidate for the 2019 election. Sarah Owen held the seat with 55.2% of the vote, and in doing so became the UK’s first female British-Chinese MP and Labour’s first MP of East Asian descent. Hopkins’ daughter Rachel replaced Gavin Shuker as MP for Luton South at the same election.
The only Tory councillors in Luton represent wards within this constituency, the suburban wards of Bramingham and Icknield in the seats north eastern corner. The LibDems are comparatively weak, although they do control Sundon Park and Barnfield wards. Icknield, Barnfield and Bramingham are the only wards conceivably not carried by Labour at the last couple of general elections. Social housing virtually non-existent in the latter two and both have very middle-class occupation profiles, quite unlike the rest of the seat, while Icknield is much closer to the seat at large.
Overall, this is a formerly marginal bellwether that has moved quite a considerable difference to the left. Although it’s probably premature to rule the Tories out entirely, it’s certainly difficult to imagine anyone beating Labour in the near future.
