Post by John Chanin on Apr 17, 2020 14:28:10 GMT
Hampstead has a reputation as the epicentre of the liberal intelligentsia. Many of the Jewish refugees from Hitler settled here, including Sigmund Freud. However this isn’t really true these days. Many of those that fit that description have died or moved on. What is true is that Hampstead is the home of the rich. There are many foreigners in the centre of Hampstead - the “other white” census category accounts for over a quarter of the population. And there are very many well paid professionals, often working in finance in the city. In Hampstead Town over three-quarters of people fall into the managerial and professional category. Rich people come to live here because it is a good place to live. Hampstead Heath is one of London’s largest open spaces - not a manicured park, but a piece of country that never got built on. The mansion of Kenwood House, with its art gallery sits just off Spaniards Road - the semi-rural road that connects Hampstead with Highgate along the ridge line. The centre of Hampstead has Georgian property as well as gated mansions, but down the hill in Belsize Park there are just huge stuccoed Victorian houses, mostly divided into flats. The Royal Free Hospital sits at South End Green, with the Miliband family home nearby. Many famous people have lived, and still live here. In the far south of the area there is though a large tower block estate to provide some variety. On the west side of the A41 Finchley Road is West Hampstead, with smaller houses, which is simply very well off, although some of the very highest private rented figures in the country are found here - over 40% of households.
Hampstead itself may well be the best educated area with the highest managerial jobs in the country. However Kilburn is very different. It is split between Camden and Brent, but is fairly similar on both sides of the High Road. Kilburn ward in Camden has significant amounts of council housing (including the award winning and listed Alexandra Road Estate, which backs onto one of the railway lines coming out of Euston). Both Kilburn wards have nearly half social housing, with less than a quarter owner-occupation. There is a high black population, and twice the number of people in routine jobs compared to Hampstead. The once large Irish population has disappeared. Further west the seat includes two other wards from Brent - its share of Queens Park (half of which is in Westminster), and Brondesbury. These are more ordinary areas of London - higher levels of social housing, lower levels of managerial jobs, and higher ethnic minority population than Hampstead. But these are still very pleasant places to live with a thoroughly middle-class population.
Historically Hampstead was a generally Conservative seat, which Labour could win in a very good year as the liberal attitudes of many inhabitants partly offset the wealth. Labour won here narrowly in 1992, with actress Glenda Jackson defeating the new Conservative candidate Oliver Letwin, and she had little difficulty in defending the seat thereafter, with the Conservative and Liberal Democrat vote evenly split. In 2010 Highgate was removed, and three wards added from Brent. In normal circumstances this ought to have made the seat safer, but there was a complication. The abolished Brent East seat had been won by the Liberal Democrats at a by-election. Sitting MP Sarah Teather chose to follow the majority of her seat into Brent Central, and perhaps this made a difference. In a poor year for Labour this was the closest 3-party result in England, with Jackson scraping home by just 42 votes. Jackson stood down in 2015, and the current MP is Tulip Siddiq , best known as being the niece of the Prime Minister of Bangladesh, although she has lived all her life in Britain.
This is still not a safe seat. The Conservatives regularly win the Hampstead & Belsize Park wards, and the Liberal Democrats have traditional strength in West Hampstead. Often Labour have won just Kilburn ward at Camden Council elections. However the 3 Brent wards switched from the Liberal Democrats in 2010, and are currently safely Labour, and Labour also won the Camden wards of West and South Hampstead at the last council elections.
Camden is the right size for two seats, but the Boundary Commission has had difficulties in north London. The current seat is oversized, and the original proposals moved two wards (including Hampstead town) into a curious cross-borough constituency with Westminster, while adding Harlesdon from Brent into a renamed West Hampstead & Kilburn seat. This received little support during consultation, and there has been a rethink. The Brent wards have been removed entirely, Primrose Hill and Highgate moved in from St Pancras (Camden South), along with the north side of Kentish Town, and the Highgate ward of Haringey brought in. This makes the seat similar to the Hampstead & Highgate seat that existed from 1997 to 2010, and indeed it has so been renamed. Despite the orphan ward it does make sense to reunite Highgate, which is split between two boroughs. Since the areas added are as up market as Hampstead, the new seat may well turn out to be the best educated in the country, and rivalling Westminster , Chelsea and Richmond for the highest proportion in managerial jobs. As such there is clearly still a potentially large non-Labour vote here, and the revised seat cannot be considered safe for Labour.
Census data: owner-occupied 39% (548/573 in England & Wales), private rented 36% (6th), social rented 23% (108th).
:White 66%, Black 10%, Sth Asian 7%, Mixed 6%, Other 12%
: Managerial & professional 60% (7th), Routine & Semi-routine 15% (567th)
: Degree 54% (5th), Minimal qualifications 18% (566th)
: Students 7% (115th), Over 65: 11% (514th)
Hampstead itself may well be the best educated area with the highest managerial jobs in the country. However Kilburn is very different. It is split between Camden and Brent, but is fairly similar on both sides of the High Road. Kilburn ward in Camden has significant amounts of council housing (including the award winning and listed Alexandra Road Estate, which backs onto one of the railway lines coming out of Euston). Both Kilburn wards have nearly half social housing, with less than a quarter owner-occupation. There is a high black population, and twice the number of people in routine jobs compared to Hampstead. The once large Irish population has disappeared. Further west the seat includes two other wards from Brent - its share of Queens Park (half of which is in Westminster), and Brondesbury. These are more ordinary areas of London - higher levels of social housing, lower levels of managerial jobs, and higher ethnic minority population than Hampstead. But these are still very pleasant places to live with a thoroughly middle-class population.
Historically Hampstead was a generally Conservative seat, which Labour could win in a very good year as the liberal attitudes of many inhabitants partly offset the wealth. Labour won here narrowly in 1992, with actress Glenda Jackson defeating the new Conservative candidate Oliver Letwin, and she had little difficulty in defending the seat thereafter, with the Conservative and Liberal Democrat vote evenly split. In 2010 Highgate was removed, and three wards added from Brent. In normal circumstances this ought to have made the seat safer, but there was a complication. The abolished Brent East seat had been won by the Liberal Democrats at a by-election. Sitting MP Sarah Teather chose to follow the majority of her seat into Brent Central, and perhaps this made a difference. In a poor year for Labour this was the closest 3-party result in England, with Jackson scraping home by just 42 votes. Jackson stood down in 2015, and the current MP is Tulip Siddiq , best known as being the niece of the Prime Minister of Bangladesh, although she has lived all her life in Britain.
This is still not a safe seat. The Conservatives regularly win the Hampstead & Belsize Park wards, and the Liberal Democrats have traditional strength in West Hampstead. Often Labour have won just Kilburn ward at Camden Council elections. However the 3 Brent wards switched from the Liberal Democrats in 2010, and are currently safely Labour, and Labour also won the Camden wards of West and South Hampstead at the last council elections.
Camden is the right size for two seats, but the Boundary Commission has had difficulties in north London. The current seat is oversized, and the original proposals moved two wards (including Hampstead town) into a curious cross-borough constituency with Westminster, while adding Harlesdon from Brent into a renamed West Hampstead & Kilburn seat. This received little support during consultation, and there has been a rethink. The Brent wards have been removed entirely, Primrose Hill and Highgate moved in from St Pancras (Camden South), along with the north side of Kentish Town, and the Highgate ward of Haringey brought in. This makes the seat similar to the Hampstead & Highgate seat that existed from 1997 to 2010, and indeed it has so been renamed. Despite the orphan ward it does make sense to reunite Highgate, which is split between two boroughs. Since the areas added are as up market as Hampstead, the new seat may well turn out to be the best educated in the country, and rivalling Westminster , Chelsea and Richmond for the highest proportion in managerial jobs. As such there is clearly still a potentially large non-Labour vote here, and the revised seat cannot be considered safe for Labour.
Census data: owner-occupied 39% (548/573 in England & Wales), private rented 36% (6th), social rented 23% (108th).
:White 66%, Black 10%, Sth Asian 7%, Mixed 6%, Other 12%
: Managerial & professional 60% (7th), Routine & Semi-routine 15% (567th)
: Degree 54% (5th), Minimal qualifications 18% (566th)
: Students 7% (115th), Over 65: 11% (514th)
2010 | % | 2015 | % | 2017 | % | 2019 | % | |
Labour | 17,332 | 32.8% | 23,977 | 44.4% | 34,464 | 59.0% | 28,080 | 48.9% |
Conservative | 17,290 | 32.7% | 22,839 | 42.3% | 18,904 | 32.4% | 13,892 | 24.2% |
Liberal Democrat | 16,491 | 31.2% | 3,039 | 5.6% | 4,100 | 7.0% | 13,121 | 22.9% |
UKIP/Brexit | 408 | 0.8% | 1,532 | 2.8% | 684 | 1.2% | ||
Green | 759 | 1.4% | 2,387 | 4.4% | 742 | 1.3% | 1,608 | 2.8% |
Others | 542 | 1.0% | 190 | 0.4% | 197 | 0.3% | ||
Majority | 42 | 0.1% | 1,138 | 2.1% | 15,560 | 26.6% | 14,188 | 24.7% |
