Newbury

[greenhert]

The Newbury constituency was created in 1885 from West Berkshire; it has continuously existed since then but its boundaries have changed a few times.

Newbury consists of the eponymous town itself, Hungerford, the village of Bradfield, and the majority of the unitary authority of West Berkshire, the most rural of the Berkshire council areas. It is home to the former house of the Duchess of Cambridge, the prestigious Bradfield College, and was once home to the Greenham Common Airbase, which became the focus of anti-nuclear protests during the 1980s. It has a high proportion of detached and semi-detached housing, a key indicator of middle-class populations, and a low proportion of social housing. Like many seats in the Home Counties it has a high proportion of graduates and a high proportion of people in managerial and professional occupations.

Newbury is a safe Conservative seat but the Liberal Democrats can win it in a very good year for them. Almost every MP for this seat had at least one relative who was an MP before them and/or after them and every single MP for this seat has been privately educated, usually at Eton. William Mount (MP from 1905-06 and 1910-22) was the great-grandfather of former PM David Cameron, Howard Clifton Brown (MP from 1922-23 and 24-45) was the great-great-uncle of current Conservative MP Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, Anthony Hurd (MP from 1945-64) was the son of Percy Hurd, the father of Douglas Hurd and the paternal grandfather of Nick Hurd. John Astor (MP from 1964-74) was from the famous Astor family and his relative Nancy Astor was the first ever woman MP to take her seat in the House of Commons. Michael McNair-Wilson (MP from 1974-92) was the brother of Patrick McNair-Wilson, who sat alongside him in Parliament for 18 years. Sybil Chaplin, who served for only 316 days before dying during a heart operation, was once married to Robert Walpole, a direct descendant of the very first British PM, Sir Robert Walpole himself. The 1993 by-election was won by David Rendel on a monumental 28.4% swing, making him the first non-Conservative MP for Newbury since 1923. Even then he had his own "Establishment" connections; he was educated at Eton and his great-great-uncle, Stuart Rendel, was Liberal MP for Montgomeryshire from 1880-94. David Rendel was defeated in 2005 by Richard Benyon, son of former Conservative MP Sir William Benyon. He was one of 21 Conservative MPs to lose the whip over voting for a no-deal Brexit in 2019; the whip was subsequently restored but he retired from Parliament anyway. The current MP is Laura Farris, who is the daughter of the late Michael McNair-Wilson. The Liberals retained second place in 2015 (they have either been first or second continuously since 1974, when Dane Clouston came close to winning this seat) despite their national collapse and the fact they lost this seat as early as 2005; they have made a slow recovery since but it would still take another set of extraordinary circumstances for them to win this seat, despite their local strength in Newbury itself. This is also one of the weakest seats for Labour in the country; it consistently featured their lowest vote throughout the Blair years because of heavy tactical voting for the Liberal Democrats and in 2010 it was one of the five constituencies where they lost their deposit.

[arnieg]

A couple of points (I grew up here):

1 There has been a huge growth in population of Thatcham (1951 5,000: now 25,000), very much changing its character from small market town to characterless suburbia

2 Dane Clouston came very close to winning it for the Liberals in both 1974 elections. He went on to have a very eccentric career in fringe politics

[heslingtonian]

On the whole relations point, is Dane Clouston related to William Clouston, current SDP Leader?

[heslingtonian]

Also do people think the Lib Dems would have won Newbury in 1997 if the 1993 by-election hadn’t happened? I see some parallels with Winchester which is close to Newbury and has similar politics. Also both had Conservative MPs first elected for that constituency in 1992 although had she lived I’d suggest Judith Chaplin may well have been a more popular incumbent than Gerry Malone. Overall I would say it would have been on a knife edge.

[finsobruce]

Apr 17, 2020 6:57:49 GMT arnieg said:

A couple of points (I grew up here):

1 There has been a huge growth in population of Thatcham (1951 5,000: now 25,000), very much changing its character from small market town to characterless suburbia

2 Dane Clouston came very close to winning it for the Liberals in both 1974 elections. He went on to have a very eccentric career in fringe politics

*The Campaign for Universal Inheritance still has a page up on t'internet, proudly proclaiming the policy's adoption by the Liberal party.

[andrewp]

Apr 17, 2020 8:54:51 GMT heslingtonian said:

Also do people think the Lib Dems would have won Newbury in 1997 if the 1993 by-election hadn’t happened? I see some parallels with Winchester which is close to Newbury and has similar politics. Also both had Conservative MPs first elected for that constituency in 1992 although had she lived I’d suggest Judith Chaplin may well have been a more popular incumbent than Gerry Malone. Overall I would say it would have been on a knife edge.

I think it probably would have been a narrow Conservative hold. Would probably have had a number of close Conservative/ Lib Dem contests.

[nobodyimportant]

Apr 17, 2020 2:10:41 GMT @barnabymarder said:

Good profile but a little analysis of the areas where the Lib Dems at least used to do well, even if they don't  so much now, wouldn't be bad. 

It's worth bearing in mind that the area removed from the constituency before the 2010 election was a relatively strong one for the Lib Dems.

Aside from that, locally the pattern in the constituency probably wasn't that different in 2019 to in 2003* (most of the areas the Lib Dems have dropped are ones where they were never overly strong and in these areas it is the Greens, rather than the Conservatives, who have gained), and I'd imagine that were the Lib Dems to have had an incumbent candidate in 2019 as they did in 2005 the GE result would have been relatively similar too.

*If anything there were more places where the Tories did worse in 2019 than where the Lib Dems did.

[clyde1998]

Apr 17, 2020 8:54:51 GMT heslingtonian said:

Also do people think the Lib Dems would have won Newbury in 1997 if the 1993 by-election hadn’t happened? I see some parallels with Winchester which is close to Newbury and has similar politics. Also both had Conservative MPs first elected for that constituency in 1992 although had she lived I’d suggest Judith Chaplin may well have been a more popular incumbent than Gerry Malone. Overall I would say it would have been on a knife edge.

That's an interesting question, because it's hard to tell how much attention the Lib Dems would've given to Newbury had the by-election not happened.

Found this on an Opinium blog before the most recent general election:


Newbury would've probably been too far down the list for them to target otherwise and that graphic doesn't look the Labour/Plaid-held seven seats the Lib Dems had on their target list. However, the actual swing in Newbury was about twice what was actually required to gain the seat.

All the gains on the list (larger than the average swing) did have a bigger Labour vote to squeeze. Lewes is probably the most similar and only just had a big enough swing to be gained by the Lib Dems, but the minor parties (the Referendum Party) made some an impact and Labour's vote share increase - neither were true for Newbury.

It probably would've been very close, as you say.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Thatcham has an ice sports training centre, but curiously has no ice rink.

[Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells]

Apr 17, 2020 2:10:41 GMT @barnabymarder said:

Sybil Chaplin was known by her middle name of Judith. I can't think of any other MPs called Sybil now I come to think of it. Judith yes.

Good profile but a little analysis of the areas where the Lib Dems at least used to do well, even if they don't  so much now, wouldn't be bad. Also worth mentioning how weak a seat this is for Labour, and consistently so for decades. Even in the 1993 by-election when Labour were going into a commanding national lead the party did very badly.

Didn't know that about Laura Farris at all and very interesting about all the MPs related to other ones.

I can answer that question. Thatcham used to be a big area of strength for them and now they are recovering to some extent. I would say Aldermaston as well with AWE being close and so a highly educated and middle class part of the seat. You are right about Burghfield(Common) and Mortimer which are middle class and highly educated,Theale is another out of this constituency also in West Berks which is unusual politically because it is a village that usually votes Lib Dem locally despite the Benyons owning quite a lot of land nearby through the Englefield Estate which employs quite a lot of locals too and more importantly it's a very working class probably Leave-voting village. Pangbourne is probably another source of Lib Dem votes outside of the village with its middle class,London/Reading commuter belt Remain-voting character.

[Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells]

Apr 18, 2020 22:57:28 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Thatcham has an ice sports training centre, but curiously has no ice rink.

And there's none nearby either. The nearest is Basingstoke which isn't that far by car but a long indirect route by public transport. Then Bracknell the other side of Reading and finally Oxford. Neither which are particularly easy to get to whatever mode of transport you use from Thatcham.

[greatkingrat]

Surely you have to mention that this constituency is where the Patriotic Socialist Party was founded?

[arnieg]

May 9, 2020 0:08:45 GMT Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells said:

Apr 17, 2020 2:10:41 GMT @barnabymarder said:

Sybil Chaplin was known by her middle name of Judith. I can't think of any other MPs called Sybil now I come to think of it. Judith yes.

Good profile but a little analysis of the areas where the Lib Dems at least used to do well, even if they don't  so much now, wouldn't be bad. Also worth mentioning how weak a seat this is for Labour, and consistently so for decades. Even in the 1993 by-election when Labour were going into a commanding national lead the party did very badly.

Didn't know that about Laura Farris at all and very interesting about all the MPs related to other ones.

I can answer that question. Thatcham used to be a big area of strength for them and now they are recovering to some extent. I would say Aldermaston as well with AWE being close and so a highly educated and middle class part of the seat. You are right about Burghfield(Common) and Mortimer which are middle class and highly educated,Theale is another out of this constituency also in West Berks which is unusual politically because it is a village that usually votes Lib Dem locally despite the Benyons owning quite a lot of land nearby through the Englefield Estate which employs quite a lot of locals too and more importantly it's a very working class probably Leave-voting village. Pangbourne is probably another source of Lib Dem votes outside of the village with its middle class,London/Reading commuter belt Remain-voting character.

I always sensed a fair bit of resentment towards the Benyons in my schooldays at Theale Green. The folklore was that they objected to the building of our school; it was eventually built but with two instead of three storeys and in return they got a house named after them (the others were named after people notable for what they had done rather than being a rich local landowners.

[bjornhattan]

May 9, 2020 0:14:49 GMT Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells said:

Apr 18, 2020 22:57:28 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Thatcham has an ice sports training centre, but curiously has no ice rink.

And there's none nearby either. The nearest is Basingstoke which isn't that far by car but a long indirect route by public transport. Then Bracknell the other side of Reading and finally Oxford. Neither which are particularly easy to get to whatever mode of transport you use from Thatcham.

Not if you use the bus and change in Newbury, though that option disappears fairly early in the evening.

[Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells]

May 9, 2020 9:16:56 GMT bjornhattan said:

May 9, 2020 0:14:49 GMT Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells said:

And there's none nearby either. The nearest is Basingstoke which isn't that far by car but a long indirect route by public transport. Then Bracknell the other side of Reading and finally Oxford. Neither which are particularly easy to get to whatever mode of transport you use from Thatcham.

Not if you use the bus and change in Newbury, though that option disappears fairly early in the evening.

You could yes use the train or bus from Thatcham to Newbury but the Link (bus from Newbury to Basingstoke) is very slow. So it's gonna be an hour if you took the train then bus,longer if bus only.

[Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells]

May 9, 2020 8:00:31 GMT arnieg said:

May 9, 2020 0:08:45 GMT Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells said:

I can answer that question. Thatcham used to be a big area of strength for them and now they are recovering to some extent. I would say Aldermaston as well with AWE being close and so a highly educated and middle class part of the seat. You are right about Burghfield(Common) and Mortimer which are middle class and highly educated,Theale is another out of this constituency also in West Berks which is unusual politically because it is a village that usually votes Lib Dem locally despite the Benyons owning quite a lot of land nearby through the Englefield Estate which employs quite a lot of locals too and more importantly it's a very working class probably Leave-voting village. Pangbourne is probably another source of Lib Dem votes outside of the village with its middle class,London/Reading commuter belt Remain-voting character.

I always sensed a fair bit of resentment towards the Benyons in my schooldays at Theale Green. The folklore was that they objected to the building of our school; it was eventually built but with two instead of three storeys and in return they got a house named after them (the others were named after people notable for what they had done rather than being a rich local landowners.

Ah, whereabouts in West Berks did you grow up? I know Theale very well, I worked in a farm shop opposite Englefield House's main gate on their land for a bit and I'm a Cadet First Aider in the Theale unit of St John Ambulance,so I know a lot of people who went to Theale Green very well. It takes quite a lot of pupils from Calcot and Southcote in Reading nowadays because they're only just opening a new secondary school for a large swathe of West Reading which was previously poorly served(it's called the WREN.)

[arnieg]

May 9, 2020 14:14:41 GMT Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells said:

May 9, 2020 8:00:31 GMT arnieg said:

I always sensed a fair bit of resentment towards the Benyons in my schooldays at Theale Green. The folklore was that they objected to the building of our school; it was eventually built but with two instead of three storeys and in return they got a house named after them (the others were named after people notable for what they had done rather than being a rich local landowners.

Ah, whereabouts in West Berks did you grow up? I know Theale very well, I worked in a farm shop opposite Englefield House's main gate on their land for a bit and I'm a Cadet First Aider in the Theale unit of St John Ambulance,so I know a lot of people who went to Theale Green very well. It takes quite a lot of pupils from Calcot and Southcote in Reading nowadays because they're only just opening a new secondary school for a large swathe of West Reading which was previously poorly served(it's called the WREN.)

Upper Basildon. 

Eastern boundary of catchment area in my day was somewhere around Langley Hill/Kentwood. Western periphery took in Buckleberry and Yattendon.

[Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells]

May 9, 2020 14:46:57 GMT arnieg said:

May 9, 2020 14:14:41 GMT Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells said:

Ah, whereabouts in West Berks did you grow up? I know Theale very well, I worked in a farm shop opposite Englefield House's main gate on their land for a bit and I'm a Cadet First Aider in the Theale unit of St John Ambulance,so I know a lot of people who went to Theale Green very well. It takes quite a lot of pupils from Calcot and Southcote in Reading nowadays because they're only just opening a new secondary school for a large swathe of West Reading which was previously poorly served(it's called the WREN.)

Upper Basildon. 

Eastern boundary of catchment area in my day was somewhere around Langley Hill/Kentwood. Western periphery took in Buckleberry and Yattendon.

Ah OK, you'd probably have gone to Denefield if you'd grown up in the last decade or perhaps the Downs in Compton.The western catchment is still roughly the same I think,with everyone west of that going to the Kennet in Thatcham. But Theale Green is now run by Bradfield College after a few rough spots with a few stabbings and it's the overspill school for a lot of the new suburbs south of the Bath Road from Coley to Calcot. North of the Bath Road including the Langley Hill and Pincents Lane areas would go to Little Heath nowadays despite that area being much closer to Theale Green than Southcote.

[Robert Waller]

2011 Census

Age 65+ 15.2% 437/650
Owner-occupied 66.7% 333/650
Private rented 15.0% 279/650
Social rented 15.2% 342/650
White 95.6% 303/650
Black 0.6% 331/650
Asian 2.2% 352/650
Managerial & professional 40.1%
Routine & Semi-routine 21.6%
Employed in information and communication 11.2% 5/650
Degree level 32.5% 129/650
No qualifications 17.4% 555/650
Students 5.6% 559/650

2021 Census

Owner occupied 66.1% 283/573
Private rented 18.7% 257/573
Social rented 15.3% 284/573
White 93.1%
Black 0.9%
Asian 3.3%
Managerial & professional 41.1% 90/573
Routine & Semi-routine 20.3% 410/573
Degree level 37.3% 148/573
No qualifications 14.3% 462/573



General Election 2019: Newbury

Party Candidate Votes % ±%

Conservative Laura Farris 34,431 57.4 -4.1
Liberal Democrats Lee Dillon 18,384 30.6 +9.2
Labour James Wilder 4,404 7.3 -6.8
Green Stephen Masters 2,454 4.1 +1.6
Independent Ben Holden-Crowther 325 0.5

C Majority 16,047 26.8 -13.3

Turnout 59,998 71.9 -1.5

Conservative hold

Swing 6.7 C to LD

[Pete Whitehead]

Berkshire is entitled to nine seats and a new seat is created in the centre of the county, in the Reading suburbs. Most of the remaining constituencies remain more or less intact but with varying degrees of changes to accomodate the new seat.
Newbury being at one end of the county is less affected than some others but is well over quota currently and around 12,000 voters in the rural East of the constituency are lost to the 'new' Mid Berkdshire seat (actually a heavily redrawn and renamed Reading West). These voters in Aldermaston, Basildon, Bradfield, Bucklebury and Compton are more Conservative than average for this constituency, with Lib Dem strength being greatest in Newbury and Thatcham.
Consequently the Conservative majority is reduced quite substantially

Notional result 2019 on the proposed new boundaries

Con	28123	55.7%
LD	16164	32.0%
Lab	3810	7.5%
Grn	2107	4.2%
Oth	273	0.5%
Majority	11959	23.7%