Poplar & Limehouse
Apr 13, 2020 10:43:29 GMT
londonseal80 and Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells like this
Post by John Chanin on Apr 13, 2020 10:43:29 GMT
This is a very exceptional and unique seat. Physically this seat stretches along the Thames from the Tower of London in the west through Wapping and Limehouse to the great bend that encompasses the Isle of Dogs. Historically this was the port of London, with wharves, warehouses and docks lining the river, but the docks never really recovered from world war bombing, and closed in the 1960s. It also stretches north along the west bank of the river Lea to include Mile End and Bromley - much more traditional working class areas.
It shares a number of characteristics with other inner east London boroughs (see demographic statistics below). Owner-occupation is the 4th lowest in the country and both private and social renting are in the top 20. Managerial jobs are in the top 100 and there are very high educational qualifications, partly due to the lowest proportion of over 65s in the whole country. And it is a “majority minority seat”. Tower Hamlets is the heart of the Bangladeshi community in Britain - this seat has the second highest proportion after neighbouring Bethnal Green, and at the 2011 census was exactly equal with the white British proportion. This however gives the lie to the lazy assumption that politics here is determined solely by factions and divisions in the Bangladeshi community.
The seat is also very polarized, with a lot of people working in financial services in the City, and Canary Wharf, which is in this seat. Whether renting or owned they live in very expensive modern flats, which litter the Thameside. A comparison between St Katharines & Wapping and Bromley by Bow wards tells the story (these are old wards - Tower Hamlets has been rewarded since the census). St Katharines 62% white and 21% Bangladeshi, 67% managerial and just 12% routine, 40% owner-occupied and 20% social rented. Bromley 30% white and 45% Bangladeshi (with a significant black population too, much of it Somali), 34% managerial and 33% routine, 15% owner-occupied and 56% social rented. These huge social and racial differences play out in local politics. There is a substantial Conservative vote along the riverside. The Conservatives have won in Wapping and Blackwall consistently, and in 2014 won 4 of the 5 riverside wards, excluding only Island Gardens at the tip of the Isle of Dogs, with its isolated council estates, once a National Front stronghold. Limehouse historically was known for its Chinese community, and there is still a concentration here - this constituency has the second highest Chinese population in the country (after Manchester Central), albeit only 4.5%.
However Tower Hamlets is best known for the Lutfur Rahman phenomenon. Formerly a Labour Party politician - indeed leader of the council - he ran as an independent for mayor in 2010 winning re-election in 2014 by a narrow margin, and Tower Hamlets got a reputation for incompetence and patronage at best, leading to his eventual disqualification by the courts. After election as mayor he set up his own Tower Hamlets First party which won all the seats in the heavily Bangladeshi wards (including 3 in this constituency). There was plenty of prehistory to this as well. George Galloway famously won the neighbouring Bethnal Green seat at the 2005 General Election for the Respect Party, but stood in Poplar & Limehouse instead at the 2010 election, finishing a strong third. Some Respect councillors were elected in 2006, and a number of Labour councillors defected to Respect before the 2010 election. With the end of his disqualification Rahman has made a comeback, winning the election for mayor in 2022, and seeing his new Aspire party take a majority on the council (with solely male Bangladeshi councillors). Politics has been personal and bitter here for well over a decade. The current MP here, following the retirement of anti-EU former fireman Jim Fitzpatrick in 2019, is Apsana Begum, a local activist who is not popular in the Bangladeshi community, and is heading for deselection. Another unusual and interesting contest may well take place here at the next parliamentary election.
The Boundary Commission has not been consistent in this area. The present seat is similar to the Stepney & Poplar seat that existed in the 1970s, but in 1983 they switched the division to east-west, linking Poplar with Bow, and Stepney with Bethnal Green. In 1997 they reverted to the previous north-south arrangement although the seat, then considered undersized, lost Stepney and gained Canning Town across the Lea in Newham. In 2010 the rapid growth in population, both from all the new development alongside the Thames and on the Island, and increasing overcrowding in the rented sector, led to the present division. This seat now has a population of over 90,000 and the Boundary Commission are proposing considerable changes accordingly. Apart from realignment two wards are being removed: Shadwell just inland from the docks, to Bethnal Green, and Bromley North, alongside the Lea, to the new seat of Stratford & Bow. These two wards have among the highest Bangladeshi proportions in the borough - just under 50% at the 2011 census and no doubt over 50% now - which will reduce the Bangladeshi influence somewhat. Higher turnout among non-Bangladeshis at general elections means that the constituency should stay Labour, regardless of the candidate.
Census data: owner-occupied 27% (570/573 in England & Wales), private rented 34% (11th), social rented 37% (15th).
:White 43%, Black 8%, Sth Asian 35%, Mixed 4%, Other 9%
: Managerial & professional 52% (28th), Routine & Semi-routine 21% (497th)
: Degree 42% (32nd), Minimal qualifications 29% (409th)
: Students 10% (65th), Over 65: 5% (573rd)
: Muslim 32% (9th)
It shares a number of characteristics with other inner east London boroughs (see demographic statistics below). Owner-occupation is the 4th lowest in the country and both private and social renting are in the top 20. Managerial jobs are in the top 100 and there are very high educational qualifications, partly due to the lowest proportion of over 65s in the whole country. And it is a “majority minority seat”. Tower Hamlets is the heart of the Bangladeshi community in Britain - this seat has the second highest proportion after neighbouring Bethnal Green, and at the 2011 census was exactly equal with the white British proportion. This however gives the lie to the lazy assumption that politics here is determined solely by factions and divisions in the Bangladeshi community.
The seat is also very polarized, with a lot of people working in financial services in the City, and Canary Wharf, which is in this seat. Whether renting or owned they live in very expensive modern flats, which litter the Thameside. A comparison between St Katharines & Wapping and Bromley by Bow wards tells the story (these are old wards - Tower Hamlets has been rewarded since the census). St Katharines 62% white and 21% Bangladeshi, 67% managerial and just 12% routine, 40% owner-occupied and 20% social rented. Bromley 30% white and 45% Bangladeshi (with a significant black population too, much of it Somali), 34% managerial and 33% routine, 15% owner-occupied and 56% social rented. These huge social and racial differences play out in local politics. There is a substantial Conservative vote along the riverside. The Conservatives have won in Wapping and Blackwall consistently, and in 2014 won 4 of the 5 riverside wards, excluding only Island Gardens at the tip of the Isle of Dogs, with its isolated council estates, once a National Front stronghold. Limehouse historically was known for its Chinese community, and there is still a concentration here - this constituency has the second highest Chinese population in the country (after Manchester Central), albeit only 4.5%.
However Tower Hamlets is best known for the Lutfur Rahman phenomenon. Formerly a Labour Party politician - indeed leader of the council - he ran as an independent for mayor in 2010 winning re-election in 2014 by a narrow margin, and Tower Hamlets got a reputation for incompetence and patronage at best, leading to his eventual disqualification by the courts. After election as mayor he set up his own Tower Hamlets First party which won all the seats in the heavily Bangladeshi wards (including 3 in this constituency). There was plenty of prehistory to this as well. George Galloway famously won the neighbouring Bethnal Green seat at the 2005 General Election for the Respect Party, but stood in Poplar & Limehouse instead at the 2010 election, finishing a strong third. Some Respect councillors were elected in 2006, and a number of Labour councillors defected to Respect before the 2010 election. With the end of his disqualification Rahman has made a comeback, winning the election for mayor in 2022, and seeing his new Aspire party take a majority on the council (with solely male Bangladeshi councillors). Politics has been personal and bitter here for well over a decade. The current MP here, following the retirement of anti-EU former fireman Jim Fitzpatrick in 2019, is Apsana Begum, a local activist who is not popular in the Bangladeshi community, and is heading for deselection. Another unusual and interesting contest may well take place here at the next parliamentary election.
The Boundary Commission has not been consistent in this area. The present seat is similar to the Stepney & Poplar seat that existed in the 1970s, but in 1983 they switched the division to east-west, linking Poplar with Bow, and Stepney with Bethnal Green. In 1997 they reverted to the previous north-south arrangement although the seat, then considered undersized, lost Stepney and gained Canning Town across the Lea in Newham. In 2010 the rapid growth in population, both from all the new development alongside the Thames and on the Island, and increasing overcrowding in the rented sector, led to the present division. This seat now has a population of over 90,000 and the Boundary Commission are proposing considerable changes accordingly. Apart from realignment two wards are being removed: Shadwell just inland from the docks, to Bethnal Green, and Bromley North, alongside the Lea, to the new seat of Stratford & Bow. These two wards have among the highest Bangladeshi proportions in the borough - just under 50% at the 2011 census and no doubt over 50% now - which will reduce the Bangladeshi influence somewhat. Higher turnout among non-Bangladeshis at general elections means that the constituency should stay Labour, regardless of the candidate.
Census data: owner-occupied 27% (570/573 in England & Wales), private rented 34% (11th), social rented 37% (15th).
:White 43%, Black 8%, Sth Asian 35%, Mixed 4%, Other 9%
: Managerial & professional 52% (28th), Routine & Semi-routine 21% (497th)
: Degree 42% (32nd), Minimal qualifications 29% (409th)
: Students 10% (65th), Over 65: 5% (573rd)
: Muslim 32% (9th)
2010 | % | 2015 | % | 2017 | % | 2019 | % | |
Labour | 18,679 | 40.0% | 29,886 | 58.5% | 39,558 | 67.3% | 38,660 | 63.1% |
Conservative | 12,649 | 27.1% | 12,962 | 25.4% | 11,846 | 20.1% | 9,756 | 15.9% |
Liberal Democrat | 5,209 | 11.2% | 2,149 | 4.2% | 3,959 | 6.7% | 8,832 | 14.4% |
UKIP/Brexit | 565 | 1.2% | 3,128 | 6.1% | 849 | 1.4% | 1,493 | 2.4% |
Green | 449 | 1.0% | 2,463 | 4.8% | 989 | 1.7% | 2,159 | 3.5% |
| Respect | 8,160 | 17.5% | ||||||
Others | 989 | 2.1% | 456 | 0.9% | 1,613 | 2.7% | 376 | 0.6% |
Majority | 6,030 | 12.9% | 16,924 | 33.2% | 27,712 | 47.1% | 28,904 | 47.2% |
