Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2020 15:40:02 GMT
Bristol North West
Bristol North West is afantastic piece of trolling by the boundary commission parliamentary constituency covering a band across the northern portion of the city and the arm that stretches from the north west of the city proper out to the mouth of the Avon. This seat covers the communities of Avonmouth, Shirehampton and Lawrence Weston out by the coast; Henbury, Southmead and Lockleaze along the border with South Gloucestershire; Horfield, henleaze and Stapleton farther in towards the centre; and Stoke Bishop and Westbury-on-Trym on the southern edge of the “arm”. It also stretches into the Severn Estuary as far as, but not including, Flat Holm (in Cardiff South & Penarth) and Steep Holm (in Weston-Super-Mare). On the surface, these seem to be very disparate communities with little if anything in common, but it’s surprising how strong a unifying force “at least we’re not Filton” can be.
The city’s position on the mouth of the river Avon allowed it to become a major port and industrial centre. Bristol was already a major shipbuilding and manufacturing hub by the 14th century, and by the Tudor era it was the country’s second most important port, trading with Ireland, Iceland and Gascony. In 1497, John Cabot sailed west from Bristol hoping to reach Asia but instead landing in North America, probably in Newfoundland although the exact location is uncertain. In the 17th and 18th centuries overseas trade grew in importance and Bristol, along with Liverpool, became a major hub in the triangular Atlantic slave trade. In the nineteenth century, the railway came to Bristol thanks to engineer Isambard Kingdom Brunel who built the Great Western Railway linking the West Country to London. His Bristol-Built steamships, the SS Great Britain and Great Western, the former of which is now back in Bristol harbour and open to the public as a museum which is well worth a visit if you’re ever in the area, brought the New World much closer and helped increase Bristol’s importance as a port.
Bristol also has a long history of liberal and non-conformist thought. Not only did its status as a port open it to trade and immigration from all over Europe, but John Wesley opened the first Methodist chapel in the city in 1739. In 1831, the people of Bristol rioted in Queen's Square in protest at the House of Lords' rejection of the reform act at its second reading. In 1963, the Bristol Omnibus company was refusing to hire black or Asian bus crews and discrimination in many areas, including employment and housing, was sadly commonplace in the UK at the time. Led by youth worker Paul Stephenson and the West Indian Development Council, residents boycotted Bristol buses for four months. The boycott drew national attention and was endorsed by several prominent politicians including the High Commissioner of Trinidad and Tobago. The boycott was successful not only in persuading the company to drop it discriminatory policies but was also likely instrumental in passing the Race Relations acts of 1965 and 68. Little wonder then, with its history of liberalism, protest and progressivism that this city is such a stronghold for the left in UK politics.
The 2019 report on deprivation in England’s constituencies tells us that this is the 186th most deprived seat in England, but it doesn’t tell the whole story. The wards of Avonmouth & Lawrence Weston, Henbury & Brentry, Southmead and Lockleaze all contain LSOAs in the poorest 10% in England while every LSOA in Westbury-on-Trym & Henleaze ward is in the least deprived 30% and all but 4 are in the richest decile; neighbouring Stoke Bishop ward is in almost the same situation except for a few areas around Sea Mills. Much of this deprivation exists as a remnant of the city’s diverse industrial past. The coastal communities have suffered in much the same way as coastal communities all over the country. The village of Severn Beach, just over the border in the Filton & Bradley Stoke constituency, was once the holiday spot of choice for working-class people in this area of the West Country, but the tourists have now completely disappeared and the amenities with them: not even the local pub remains. Seaside areas of Bristol, such as Avonmouth and Sea Mills, have suffered similarly alongside the loss of nearly all of their industry. Some of these places are the epitome of Britain’s “left behind communities”. This stands in sharp contrast to the genuinely wealthy and eye-wateringly posh communities just a few miles away, and the “just about managing” communities in the east of the constituency.
Politically, this has been a right-leaning marginal throughout much of its history, voting Tory in the Labour wins of 1964 and February 1974 but otherwise going with the national winner. However, prior to 2010 the boundaries were very different, excluding the southern wards and instead including the neighbouring towns of Filton, Bradley Stoke, Stoke Gifford and parts of Patchway. The Tory nature of these places would have balanced the Labour-inclined industrial and coastal areas, with the seat likely being won or lost in Lockleaze, Brentry and Horfield.
Today, its political profile is similar yet somehow very different. It is a relatively liberal seat – this is Bristol, after all – and is estimated to have voted 61% remain, although some of the traditional working-class areas and some areas with an older population are perhaps less so. Labour strength in Avonmouth has declined in line with similar coastal areas all over the country. The Tory areas of South Gloucestershire have been replaced by the even more Tory wards formerly in West Bristol, while Henbury and Brentry still vote Tory and Lockleaze and Southmead provide strong results for Labour: Avonmouth & Lawrence Weston and Horfield are the only genuine Labour-Conservative marginals in the seat. There is LibDems strength in the richer areas at local level, but it almost entirely evaporates at parliamentary level. In 2010 and 15 it went Tory, but a brexit-inspired shift amongst these voters helped Labour capture the seat on a 9-point swing in 2017. In 2019, this was one of the very few seats that saw a Con-to-Lab two-party swing, although both parties lost vote share to the LibDems and Greens. Like similar areas in Bristol West, there is a certain element of the liberal outlook in some places becoming a more overtly left-wing one, although the Tories haven’t capitulated in the same way.
Overall, this former marginal seat is trending seemingly unstoppably towards Labour at a rate of knots. Although still marginal for now and the foreseeable future, there is a real possibility that we’ll be talking about it as a safe Labour seat by the late 2030s, assuming it survives in a recognisable form. If that does happen, the number of Labour activists freed up in Bristol may allow the party to take the challenge to the Tories in the neighbouring seats of Kingswood and Filton & Bradley Stoke.
Bristol North West is a
The city’s position on the mouth of the river Avon allowed it to become a major port and industrial centre. Bristol was already a major shipbuilding and manufacturing hub by the 14th century, and by the Tudor era it was the country’s second most important port, trading with Ireland, Iceland and Gascony. In 1497, John Cabot sailed west from Bristol hoping to reach Asia but instead landing in North America, probably in Newfoundland although the exact location is uncertain. In the 17th and 18th centuries overseas trade grew in importance and Bristol, along with Liverpool, became a major hub in the triangular Atlantic slave trade. In the nineteenth century, the railway came to Bristol thanks to engineer Isambard Kingdom Brunel who built the Great Western Railway linking the West Country to London. His Bristol-Built steamships, the SS Great Britain and Great Western, the former of which is now back in Bristol harbour and open to the public as a museum which is well worth a visit if you’re ever in the area, brought the New World much closer and helped increase Bristol’s importance as a port.
Bristol also has a long history of liberal and non-conformist thought. Not only did its status as a port open it to trade and immigration from all over Europe, but John Wesley opened the first Methodist chapel in the city in 1739. In 1831, the people of Bristol rioted in Queen's Square in protest at the House of Lords' rejection of the reform act at its second reading. In 1963, the Bristol Omnibus company was refusing to hire black or Asian bus crews and discrimination in many areas, including employment and housing, was sadly commonplace in the UK at the time. Led by youth worker Paul Stephenson and the West Indian Development Council, residents boycotted Bristol buses for four months. The boycott drew national attention and was endorsed by several prominent politicians including the High Commissioner of Trinidad and Tobago. The boycott was successful not only in persuading the company to drop it discriminatory policies but was also likely instrumental in passing the Race Relations acts of 1965 and 68. Little wonder then, with its history of liberalism, protest and progressivism that this city is such a stronghold for the left in UK politics.
The 2019 report on deprivation in England’s constituencies tells us that this is the 186th most deprived seat in England, but it doesn’t tell the whole story. The wards of Avonmouth & Lawrence Weston, Henbury & Brentry, Southmead and Lockleaze all contain LSOAs in the poorest 10% in England while every LSOA in Westbury-on-Trym & Henleaze ward is in the least deprived 30% and all but 4 are in the richest decile; neighbouring Stoke Bishop ward is in almost the same situation except for a few areas around Sea Mills. Much of this deprivation exists as a remnant of the city’s diverse industrial past. The coastal communities have suffered in much the same way as coastal communities all over the country. The village of Severn Beach, just over the border in the Filton & Bradley Stoke constituency, was once the holiday spot of choice for working-class people in this area of the West Country, but the tourists have now completely disappeared and the amenities with them: not even the local pub remains. Seaside areas of Bristol, such as Avonmouth and Sea Mills, have suffered similarly alongside the loss of nearly all of their industry. Some of these places are the epitome of Britain’s “left behind communities”. This stands in sharp contrast to the genuinely wealthy and eye-wateringly posh communities just a few miles away, and the “just about managing” communities in the east of the constituency.
Politically, this has been a right-leaning marginal throughout much of its history, voting Tory in the Labour wins of 1964 and February 1974 but otherwise going with the national winner. However, prior to 2010 the boundaries were very different, excluding the southern wards and instead including the neighbouring towns of Filton, Bradley Stoke, Stoke Gifford and parts of Patchway. The Tory nature of these places would have balanced the Labour-inclined industrial and coastal areas, with the seat likely being won or lost in Lockleaze, Brentry and Horfield.
Today, its political profile is similar yet somehow very different. It is a relatively liberal seat – this is Bristol, after all – and is estimated to have voted 61% remain, although some of the traditional working-class areas and some areas with an older population are perhaps less so. Labour strength in Avonmouth has declined in line with similar coastal areas all over the country. The Tory areas of South Gloucestershire have been replaced by the even more Tory wards formerly in West Bristol, while Henbury and Brentry still vote Tory and Lockleaze and Southmead provide strong results for Labour: Avonmouth & Lawrence Weston and Horfield are the only genuine Labour-Conservative marginals in the seat. There is LibDems strength in the richer areas at local level, but it almost entirely evaporates at parliamentary level. In 2010 and 15 it went Tory, but a brexit-inspired shift amongst these voters helped Labour capture the seat on a 9-point swing in 2017. In 2019, this was one of the very few seats that saw a Con-to-Lab two-party swing, although both parties lost vote share to the LibDems and Greens. Like similar areas in Bristol West, there is a certain element of the liberal outlook in some places becoming a more overtly left-wing one, although the Tories haven’t capitulated in the same way.
Overall, this former marginal seat is trending seemingly unstoppably towards Labour at a rate of knots. Although still marginal for now and the foreseeable future, there is a real possibility that we’ll be talking about it as a safe Labour seat by the late 2030s, assuming it survives in a recognisable form. If that does happen, the number of Labour activists freed up in Bristol may allow the party to take the challenge to the Tories in the neighbouring seats of Kingswood and Filton & Bradley Stoke.
