Post by bungle on Apr 11, 2020 10:18:56 GMT
Amber Valley
If any psephologist had fallen into a coma in the 1990s and woken up at some point in the last few months, the result of the 2019 GE in Amber Valley would be one where words like ‘incredible, ludicrous and astonishing’ would be appropriate (possibly alongside Labour both winning and holding Canterbury). Such outrageous results are sent by the 'Electoral God' to keep us on our toes. The fact that Amber Valley is now a stronger Tory seat in both vote share % and majority than, say, Huntingdon requires an analysis with more depth than merely 'it was all about Brexit'.
As conceived by the boundary commissioners in 1983, Amber Valley CC was comprised of most of the territory of its eponymous local government district which lies to the north and north east of Derby. The latter was always too large for one constituency so various parts to the west of the district around Belper were shaved off into West Derbyshire and have remained divorced from Amber Valley CC to this very day. The constituency instead focused on three medium sized towns: Alfreton, Ripley and Heanor, plus a swathe of villages (some pretty, some gritty) in between. Prior to 1983 these three urban conurbations were all grouped together in the Ilkeston parliamentary constituency which, along with its eponymous town, created a safe Labour constituency. Various villages in the south and west of the new Amber Valley constituency (such as Smalley and Kilburn) and a bit in the north (South Wingfield, Pentrich) came in from the sprawling and over-sized Belper CC which provided some counter-balance both in terms of geography and demographics.
Given that the three towns made up a comfortable majority of the new seat it was, rightly, assumed to be notionally Labour. But in 1983 the Conservatives won the seat with a majority of 3,000 over Labour, with the Liberal/Alliance taking 20%. In 1987 Labour had high hopes of overturning what was seen as a particularly freak result, but instead the Conservatives scored a positive swing of 5% and a majority of 9,500. One clue to all of this is how the nature of employment within the main towns had evolved over the previous 20 years. The coal mining and heavy industry was largely abandoned by the end of the 1960s, along with its unionised workforce. In its place came light industry, warehouses for distribution and service jobs. Alfreton is adjacent to J28 on the M1 and so empty land outside the town around Somercotes was quickly converted into vast distribution and industrial parks such as at Cotes Park. Thorntons Chocolate are also a large local employer here. For most of the constituency there is now easier access to Nottingham and to the north via the M1 and quick access to Derby via the 1970s dual extension of the A38 from Derby to the M1. Many of the jobs which were either provided locally or could be accessed by car were in those sectors where the Thatcher dream proved intoxicating but, once the poll tax and recession hit in the early 90s, some strong disillusionment had crept in. In 1992 Amber Valley saw an 8% swing to Labour, very little of which could really be explained by the unwinding of the NUM/UDM issue like in nearby Mansfield.
In terms of gleaning an understanding about this seat from local elections, helpfully Amber Valley has some well-defined patterns which often reflect the wider political context. This is assisted by the borough council still electing by thirds. Overall as a council it frequently switches control – Labour currently have the upper hand surprisingly but are probably grateful not to be fighting seats this year. Alfreton town itself and its environs such as Somercotes are reliably Labour but are likely to be voters for whom Brexit is an issue (estimates suggest the constituency was 65% leave); this is still an area of largely artisan terraces and pre-war corporation housing. In the villages immediately to the south and west such as Wingfield and Swanwick can be found safe and more conventional Conservative voters. Ironville & Riddings is marginal and the winner can often depend on the candidate. However, the Ripley urban area is highly marginal regardless of who stands – both at county and district level. This reflects that there is a strong mix of housing types and voters and there hasn’t been much change to that (unlike in Belper, for example). As Ripley goes, so will go the country - to paraphrase former Belper MP George Brown - and undoubtedly it went strongly for the Conservatives in 2019. There are other wards around here which are also highly marginal such as Heage & Ambergate just to the north of Belper which help to give Amber Valley its bellwether status. Heanor itself is a somewhat unprepossessing ex-industrial town close to the Nottinghamshire border where Labour can usually rely on the wards - but somewhat uneasily. The BNP made inroads here in the 2000s and won both seats in 2008. Heanor then flirted heavily with UKIP in the early 2010s so it was no shock to find that Labour’s “Corbyn + Remain” platform absolutely bombed here. In 2018 the Conservatives won both Heanor seats at a regular election for the first time since 1988 and they will have romped home here in the 2019 GE.
The sensitivity and exposure of many residents of Amber Valley to prevailing economic trends (or perceived causes of it) can help explain its politics. Occasionally there are other drivers. The Labour candidate in 1983 and 1987 was the firebrand left-wing Leader of Derbyshire County Council, David Bookbinder, who delighted in using the council's resources in a myriad of ways to oppose the Thatcher government. Just the mention of his name caused Derbyshire Tory ladies to clutch pearls and demand smelling salts but they were never going to vote Labour in any case. But his pugnacious manner will have put off some moderate voters for whom the Alliance was probably a happier berth; without his name on the ballot paper Labour successfully squeezed the Lib Dem vote in 1992 to below 9%. His Conservative opponent was a young man who delighted in taking up the cudgels against Bookbinder and the County Council throughout the 1980s/early 90s. Philip Oppenheim was a somewhat callow-looking 27 year old when he first won the seat in 1983. He is the son of Sally Oppenheim, MP for Gloucester and Thatcher minister, with whom he overlapped in the House of Commons. Ultimately he didn’t really amount to much in terms of ministerial preferment, with one Tory diarist offering a character appraisal thus: "he’s self-assured, self absorbed, self-indulgent and apparently fearless. He’s charming…I imagine he is clever too, so he can afford to be lazy". To be fair, the said diarist did say "I rather like him".
But in 1997 the voters very much did not, so they told him to focus instead on his wine bar and Cuban cocktail business. Labour’s Judy Mallaber won the seat by 11,600 on a swing of nearly 12%. Mallaber came from a typical Labour stable of NUPE and local government but also never made ministerial office. In 2010, unlike quite a few of the 1997 Labour intake in Derbyshire, Mallaber decided to fight again and went down by an agonising 536 votes to local Conservative councillor Nigel Mills. Mills retains the distinction of ensuring the MP for Amber Valley and ministerial office remain strangers and that probably wasn’t helped by the rumpus around his being caught playing Candy Crush in a select committee hearing. However, those tactical insights he has clearly learned from computer games must be of value as he continued to strengthen the grip of the Conservatives on this seat at the last three General Elections.
So could Labour get back here? A lot would have to fall right. Brexit will need to unwind and it will require a mid 90s type situation - some deep unpopularity for the Conservatives and a credible Labour platform. These are voters who will look to their pockets rather than being culturally engrained Conservatives but equally a metropolitan pitch by Labour won't chime here at all. Boundary changes could also impact – Belper is shifting leftwards and if it was brought within the seat and some villages removed then who knows? But on current boundaries this is now a long shot for Labour and there are better targets to be had nearby such as Derby North and Erewash.
If any psephologist had fallen into a coma in the 1990s and woken up at some point in the last few months, the result of the 2019 GE in Amber Valley would be one where words like ‘incredible, ludicrous and astonishing’ would be appropriate (possibly alongside Labour both winning and holding Canterbury). Such outrageous results are sent by the 'Electoral God' to keep us on our toes. The fact that Amber Valley is now a stronger Tory seat in both vote share % and majority than, say, Huntingdon requires an analysis with more depth than merely 'it was all about Brexit'.
As conceived by the boundary commissioners in 1983, Amber Valley CC was comprised of most of the territory of its eponymous local government district which lies to the north and north east of Derby. The latter was always too large for one constituency so various parts to the west of the district around Belper were shaved off into West Derbyshire and have remained divorced from Amber Valley CC to this very day. The constituency instead focused on three medium sized towns: Alfreton, Ripley and Heanor, plus a swathe of villages (some pretty, some gritty) in between. Prior to 1983 these three urban conurbations were all grouped together in the Ilkeston parliamentary constituency which, along with its eponymous town, created a safe Labour constituency. Various villages in the south and west of the new Amber Valley constituency (such as Smalley and Kilburn) and a bit in the north (South Wingfield, Pentrich) came in from the sprawling and over-sized Belper CC which provided some counter-balance both in terms of geography and demographics.
Given that the three towns made up a comfortable majority of the new seat it was, rightly, assumed to be notionally Labour. But in 1983 the Conservatives won the seat with a majority of 3,000 over Labour, with the Liberal/Alliance taking 20%. In 1987 Labour had high hopes of overturning what was seen as a particularly freak result, but instead the Conservatives scored a positive swing of 5% and a majority of 9,500. One clue to all of this is how the nature of employment within the main towns had evolved over the previous 20 years. The coal mining and heavy industry was largely abandoned by the end of the 1960s, along with its unionised workforce. In its place came light industry, warehouses for distribution and service jobs. Alfreton is adjacent to J28 on the M1 and so empty land outside the town around Somercotes was quickly converted into vast distribution and industrial parks such as at Cotes Park. Thorntons Chocolate are also a large local employer here. For most of the constituency there is now easier access to Nottingham and to the north via the M1 and quick access to Derby via the 1970s dual extension of the A38 from Derby to the M1. Many of the jobs which were either provided locally or could be accessed by car were in those sectors where the Thatcher dream proved intoxicating but, once the poll tax and recession hit in the early 90s, some strong disillusionment had crept in. In 1992 Amber Valley saw an 8% swing to Labour, very little of which could really be explained by the unwinding of the NUM/UDM issue like in nearby Mansfield.
In terms of gleaning an understanding about this seat from local elections, helpfully Amber Valley has some well-defined patterns which often reflect the wider political context. This is assisted by the borough council still electing by thirds. Overall as a council it frequently switches control – Labour currently have the upper hand surprisingly but are probably grateful not to be fighting seats this year. Alfreton town itself and its environs such as Somercotes are reliably Labour but are likely to be voters for whom Brexit is an issue (estimates suggest the constituency was 65% leave); this is still an area of largely artisan terraces and pre-war corporation housing. In the villages immediately to the south and west such as Wingfield and Swanwick can be found safe and more conventional Conservative voters. Ironville & Riddings is marginal and the winner can often depend on the candidate. However, the Ripley urban area is highly marginal regardless of who stands – both at county and district level. This reflects that there is a strong mix of housing types and voters and there hasn’t been much change to that (unlike in Belper, for example). As Ripley goes, so will go the country - to paraphrase former Belper MP George Brown - and undoubtedly it went strongly for the Conservatives in 2019. There are other wards around here which are also highly marginal such as Heage & Ambergate just to the north of Belper which help to give Amber Valley its bellwether status. Heanor itself is a somewhat unprepossessing ex-industrial town close to the Nottinghamshire border where Labour can usually rely on the wards - but somewhat uneasily. The BNP made inroads here in the 2000s and won both seats in 2008. Heanor then flirted heavily with UKIP in the early 2010s so it was no shock to find that Labour’s “Corbyn + Remain” platform absolutely bombed here. In 2018 the Conservatives won both Heanor seats at a regular election for the first time since 1988 and they will have romped home here in the 2019 GE.
The sensitivity and exposure of many residents of Amber Valley to prevailing economic trends (or perceived causes of it) can help explain its politics. Occasionally there are other drivers. The Labour candidate in 1983 and 1987 was the firebrand left-wing Leader of Derbyshire County Council, David Bookbinder, who delighted in using the council's resources in a myriad of ways to oppose the Thatcher government. Just the mention of his name caused Derbyshire Tory ladies to clutch pearls and demand smelling salts but they were never going to vote Labour in any case. But his pugnacious manner will have put off some moderate voters for whom the Alliance was probably a happier berth; without his name on the ballot paper Labour successfully squeezed the Lib Dem vote in 1992 to below 9%. His Conservative opponent was a young man who delighted in taking up the cudgels against Bookbinder and the County Council throughout the 1980s/early 90s. Philip Oppenheim was a somewhat callow-looking 27 year old when he first won the seat in 1983. He is the son of Sally Oppenheim, MP for Gloucester and Thatcher minister, with whom he overlapped in the House of Commons. Ultimately he didn’t really amount to much in terms of ministerial preferment, with one Tory diarist offering a character appraisal thus: "he’s self-assured, self absorbed, self-indulgent and apparently fearless. He’s charming…I imagine he is clever too, so he can afford to be lazy". To be fair, the said diarist did say "I rather like him".
But in 1997 the voters very much did not, so they told him to focus instead on his wine bar and Cuban cocktail business. Labour’s Judy Mallaber won the seat by 11,600 on a swing of nearly 12%. Mallaber came from a typical Labour stable of NUPE and local government but also never made ministerial office. In 2010, unlike quite a few of the 1997 Labour intake in Derbyshire, Mallaber decided to fight again and went down by an agonising 536 votes to local Conservative councillor Nigel Mills. Mills retains the distinction of ensuring the MP for Amber Valley and ministerial office remain strangers and that probably wasn’t helped by the rumpus around his being caught playing Candy Crush in a select committee hearing. However, those tactical insights he has clearly learned from computer games must be of value as he continued to strengthen the grip of the Conservatives on this seat at the last three General Elections.
So could Labour get back here? A lot would have to fall right. Brexit will need to unwind and it will require a mid 90s type situation - some deep unpopularity for the Conservatives and a credible Labour platform. These are voters who will look to their pockets rather than being culturally engrained Conservatives but equally a metropolitan pitch by Labour won't chime here at all. Boundary changes could also impact – Belper is shifting leftwards and if it was brought within the seat and some villages removed then who knows? But on current boundaries this is now a long shot for Labour and there are better targets to be had nearby such as Derby North and Erewash.
