Esher and Walton

[Robert Waller]

As this is now the seat I reside in, if no one has 'bagged it', I shall try to do a profile over the weekend, probably gradually building it ...

[Robert Waller]

Apr 11, 2020 10:43:37 GMT @barnabymarder said:

If you are short of time I'm happy to do it. I used to work in Esher, just before I knew you.

Thanks, but I've started, Barnaby.
It's not shortage of time - like most people I've plenty of that at the moment! - but I have to ration my typing-on-a-computer sessions so as not to do my back in ..

[Robert Waller]

Whoever would have thought that Esher and Walton might be a marginal in the 2019 general election? The Conservative majority just two years before had been 23,298 – over Labour, with the Liberal Democrats in third place. Consisting largely of parts of the extremely affluent Surrey ‘stockbroker belt’, no part of the seat had ever elected anything other than a Conservative to Parliament under the universal franchise. Yet in 2019 the Liberal Democrats advanced from a share of 17% to 45%, and cut the Tory majority to a fragile 2,743 – their ninth ‘closest miss’, requiring a further swing of only 2.2% for a most unlikely victory. What caused this transformation?

The Lib Dems clearly undertook a massive targeting operation in Esher & Walton, deluging the leafy avenues with supportive stakeboards and posters, along with over half a dozen separate mailshots, and two visits from party leader Jo Swinson. The motivation for this optimism was twofold. One concerned the key issue of the 2019 campaign, Brexit. The thinking here was that this highly educated constituency had voted in the 2016 referendum by around 58% to remain in the EU – so, unlike the leader of the Conservative party, a majority might not want ‘to get Brexit done’. The second element had a touch of the ‘decapitation strategy’ about it, as the MP here since 2010 has been Dominic Raab, the Foreign Secretary and Brexiteer. During the most recent campaign, Raab was subjected to personal attacks, including over the case of the young man killed in a hit and run accident by the wife of an American diplomat.

Raab had far less easy a ride than ever before, but he did win in the end. The local election ward results are not such a good guide to the distribution of party strength within the seat as often they can be, as the local Elmbridge Council sees a hard fought contest for control between the Conservatives and a concatenation of local residents groups such as the Walton Society and the Molesey Residents Association. The Liberal Democrats traditionally have had strength only in the villagy Claygate and Long Ditton and parts of Weybridge, which is in Runnymede & Weybridge constituency and not included in this seat despite it being in the Elmbridge council area. Some evidence from those observing the count suggested that they also excelled in the general election in Thames Ditton and East Molesey, which are just across the river from their Twickenham stronghold, and along it from their Kingston & Surbiton stronghold - and also have a very high proportion of university graduates. This would fit with the tendency of the Remain vote to be correlated with a high terminal education age. The Tory vote may actually have held up better in the somewhat more ‘down-market’ parts of the constituency this time, such as West Molesey and Hersham, which include both industrial estates and social housing estates; and according to the age profile relating to Brexit they would certainly do very well in the retirement community of Whiteley Village. Labour have on occasion managed to win the odd ward at council level, but the last times they did were in 1999 when they took Walton North (which then included the Fieldcommon estate) and Molesey South (which no longer exists) and in 2000 (Hersham North). Labour were very heavily squeezed in the 2019 general election, from 19.7% all the way down to a deposit losing 4.5% - which actually accounts for more of the Liberal Democrat surge than the 9 point drop in Raab’s share.

This constituency is prime commuting territory. It ranks 6th out of 650 seats for 'managers, directors and senior officials' in the most recent Census. It is entirely contained within Elmbridge council, whose Weybridge wards are paired with Runnymede. The largest communities are the rather diverse Walton on Thames and Molesey, which both contain a remarkable variety of housing types: in Walton for example the range is from the exclusive Ashley Park to the down-market if small St John’s social housing estate; East Molesey is regarded as much more desirable than West Molesey, with the modern development of Hurst Park (named after a former racecourse) in between. Hersham is also mixed, with a history of Labour against ‘Village Society’ – if not necessarily ‘village people’ - in its northern ward, but another gated private estate at Burwood Park in Hersham South. Esher, further east, has more of a posh-village feel as its sloping High Steet, once the A3, rises past Sandown Park racecourse although even Esher has a little known council estate at Lower Green, just on the other side of the railway tracks. All these areas see Conservative v. residents group contests at municipal level. More solidly Conservative (historically) are the very desirable Oxshott (with its Crown Estate, whose residents include Sir Andy Murray), Stoke d’Abernon (location of the Chelsea FC training ground) and, the largest of these, Cobham, which has something of an international flavour with its American School. As mentioned, the Liberal Democrats outperformed Raab in 2019 in the north eastern corner of the borough where it bordered Greater London – the Dittons and Claygate.

Will 2019 prove an aberrant one-off in Esher and Walton? There must be a good chance of it, as Brexit is likely to be ‘sorted’, and indeed ‘done’, by the next election. Perhaps the message is that even given the combination of political issue circumstances and the hyper-energetic LD campaign, the basic Tory vote here is so strong that they still won. Perhaps Jo Swinson would have been better off spending a couple of days in her own seat north of the border than here. It will probably be ‘back to business as usual’ next time, and significant boundary changes are unlikely. But on the other hand, the close run thing in 2019 does show that British elections no longer are necessarily simplistically and closely related to the variables of class, income and housing value – in short, to wealth. Issues matter, both the known ones such as the European Union and those as yet unpredictable. And that offers a wealth of possibilities, and much more interesting contests, around our varied and complex land.

General election 2019: Esher and Walton

Party Candidate Votes % ±%

Conservative Dominic Raab 31,132 49.4 -9.2
Liberal Democrats Monica Harding 28,389 45.0 +27.7
Labour Peter Ashurst 2,838 4.5 -15.2
Independent Kylie Keens 347 0.6 N/A
Monster Raving Loony Baron Badger 326 0.5 0.0
Advance Kyle Taylor 32 0.1 N/A

C Majority 2,743 4.4 -34.5

Turnout 63,084 77.7 +3.8

Conservative hold

Swing 18.5 C to LD


2011 Census

Age 65+ 16.4% 348/650
Owner-occupied 73.7% 96/650
Private rented 13.7% 349/650
Social rented 10.6% 560/650
White 90.5% 421/650
Black 0.8% 303/650
Asian 5.3% 215/650
Managerial & professional 48.7%
Routine & Semi-routine 13.4%
Degree level 42.8% 32/650
No qualifications 13.9% 624/650
Students 6.7% 349/650


2021 Census

Owner occupied 73.1% 87/573
Private rented 16.1% 384/573
Social rented 10.8% 481/573
White 86.3%
Black 1.2%
Asian 6.5%
Managerial & professional 49.9% 8/573
Routine & Semi-routine 12.5% 563/573
Degree level 51.4% 31/573
No qualifications 11.2% 554/573

[bjornhattan]

Apr 11, 2020 12:37:49 GMT Robert Waller said:

Whoever would have thought that Esher and Walton might be a marginal in the 2019 general election? The Conservative majority just two years before had been 23,298 – over Labour, with the Liberal Democrats in third place. Consisting largely of parts of the extremely affluent Surrey ‘stockbroker belt’, no part of the seat had ever elected anything other than a Conservative to Parliament under the universal franchise. Yet in 2019 the Liberal Democrats advanced from a share of 17% to 45%, and cut the Tory majority to a fragile 2,743 – their ninth ‘closest miss’, requiring a further swing of only 2.2% for a most unlikely victory. What caused this transformation?
The Lib Dems clearly undertook a massive targeting operation in Esher & Walton, deluging the leafy avenues with supportive stakeboards and posters, along with over half a dozen separate mailshots, and two visits from party leader Jo Swinson. The motivation for this optimism was twofold. One concerned the key issue of the 2019 campaign, Brexit. The thinking here was that this highly educated constituency had voted in the 2016 referendum by around 58% to remain in the EU – so, unlike the leader of the Conservative party, a majority might not want ‘to get Brexit done’. The second element had a touch of the ‘decapitation strategy’ about it, as the MP here since 2010 has been Dominic Raab, the Foreign Secretary and Brexiteer. During the most recent campaign, Raab was subjected to personal attacks, including over the case of the young man killed in a hit and run accident by the wife of an American diplomat.
Raab had far less easy a ride than ever before, but he did win in the end. The local election ward results are not such a good guide to the distribution of party strength within the seat as ofthen they can be, as the local Elmbridge Council sees a hard fought contest for control between the Conservatives and a concatenation of local residents groups such as the Walton Society and the Molesey Residents Association. The Liberal Democrats traditionally have had strength only in the villagy Claygate and Long Ditton and parts of Weybridge, which is included in this seat although in Runnymede Council. Some evidence from those observing the count suggested that they also excelled in the general election in Thames Ditton and East Molesey, which are just across the river from their Twickenham stronghold, and also have a very high proportion of university graduates. This would fit with the tendency of the Remain vote to be correlated with a high terminal education age. The Tory vote may actually have held up better in the somewhat more ‘down-market’ parts of the constituency this time, such as West Molesey and Hersham, which include both industrial estates and social housing estates; and according to the age profile relating to Brexit they would certainly do very well in the retirement community of Whiteley Village. Labour have on occasion managed to win a ward at council level, but the last time they did was in 1999 when they took Walton North (which then included the Fieldcommon estate) and Molesey South (which no longer exists). Labour were very heavily squeezed in the 2019 general election, from 19.7% all the way down to a deposit losing 4.5% - which actually accounts for more of the Liberal Democrat surge than the 9 point drop in Raab’s share.
Will 2019 prove an aberrant one-off in Esher and Walton? There must be a good chance of it, as Brexit is likely to be ‘sorted’, and indeed ‘done’, by the next election. Perhaps the message is that even given the combination of political issue circumstances and the hyper-energetic LD campaign, the basic Tory vote here is so strong that they still won. Perhaps Jo Swinson would have been better off spending a couple of days in her own seat north of the border than here. It will probably be ‘back to business as usual’ next time, and significant boundary changes are unlikely. But on the other hand, the close run thing in 2019 does show that British elections no longer are necessarily simplistically and closely related to the variables of class, income and housing value – in short, to wealth. Issues matter, both the known ones such as the European Union and those as yet unpredictable. And that offers a wealth of possibilities, and much more interesting contests, around our varied and complex land.

On the point about Thames Ditton and East Molesey, I'd suggest proximity to Kingston and Surbiton is just as important as proximity to Twickenham. I recently walked from Kingston town centre to Hampton Court station along the river, and it was impossible to tell where Surbiton ended and the Dittons began. There may also be some demographic change - the age profile of places like Thames Ditton could well be more like its eastern neighbours now, since the last proper data we have is from 2011.

[Deleted]

It's worth noting that Richmond Park also had a 25% swing to the Lib Dems from 2015-19.

Why shouldn't this seat start to vote like Kingston, Richmond and Twickenham?

[yellowperil]

An interesting one, too- raises all sorts of questions about the perceived certainties of "safe seats", which could have a wider applicability in another time, another place. One minor issue:"deluging the leafy avenues with.. stakebords",etc. You can't deluge an area with stakebords in an area where the work has not already been done at depth, not only so you know where your supporters are and they will feel comfortable with stakeboards because the know they will be joined by lots of others. In other words stakeboards going up is a sign of a campaign that is already well established rather than one just getting started up. This was not a one-off campaign starting from nowhere in 2019 when the election was called, the roots of it go back at least to the previous election. There were other Lib Dem campaigns in 2019 with high profile candidates and a lot of attention which did not have such established roots (you know the ones I mean)and when the going got rough they came unstuck. This one didn't make it but came much nearer. On the other hand it did not have quite the deep foundations as, say, the StAlbans campaign which was ultimately successful. Of course the other factor is the fundamental weakness of decapitation as a strategy- the Conservative Party has such depths of resources and experience that when somebody as important to them as Raab is under threat there is very little limit to the scale of the response.

[Pete Whitehead]

An excellent summary as we would expect from this author, but this is clearly the wrong way around

Apr 11, 2020 12:37:49 GMT Robert Waller said:

parts of Weybridge, which is included in this seat although in Runnymede Council.

Weybridge is covered by Elmbridge council but obviously included in the Runnymede & Weybridge seat

[Robert Waller]

Yes, thank you, some excellent responses. I have altered my wording in a couple of places to reflect this.

I do appreciate the way this is all a collaborative exercise. I'm sure I could have done with this kind of help when I was doing the paper versions - would have saved a lot of mistakes!

[Sibboleth]

Apr 11, 2020 13:15:35 GMT yellowperil said:

An interesting one, too- raises all sorts of questions about the perceived certainties of "safe seats", which could have a wider applicability in another time, another place.

When a majority of the electorate has no loyalty or firm allegiance to any party, then there are no safe seats in the classic sense. Everything is conditional, and, as we know, both circumstances and the images of the various parties are now subject to frequent, rapid change.

[neilm]

Were Arts for Labour as annoying as they sound?

[Davıd Boothroyd]

If you're thinking about Arts for Labour as some sort of Red Wedge for the middle class, that's not what they were (or indeed are).

[Deleted]

We shouldn't be surprised by the swing against the Conservatives here. Wasn't Boris the one who said F business?

[Devil Wincarnate]

Apr 11, 2020 21:38:31 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

If you're thinking about Arts for Labour as some sort of Red Wedge for the middle class, that's not what they were (or indeed are).

My understanding was that it is a bit like a democratic version of the cultural commissions you used to get in continental Communist parties.  Trying to bring intellectuals and artists on board with the party agenda.  Is that fair?

[nick10]

Apr 11, 2020 15:27:22 GMT @barnabymarder said:

I'm sure that Hersham North was the last ward with a Labour councillor. That councillor was Irene Hamilton, who used to be employed by the Richmond-upon-Thames Council Labour Group when it had 4 councillors from 1998-2002. Her seat came up in the thirds election and I went to help her, but it was gained by the Conservatives (IIRC) and since then Labour has completely dropped out of contention there and in other wards with something of a Labour history. That was after Irene's job disappeared with the group, which was wiped out, (I think it was after that time anyway) but not sure which year it was.

I also worked (I was working in Esher at the time) in the Walton-on-Thames electoral division in the Surrey County Council elections, which was expected to be close by the local paper's reporter, who was a customer in the music shop where I worked. The Labour Party activists referred to the Hersham Village Society, which held council seats in the area, as the "village idiots", but I have no idea whether Labour activists, if there are indeed any of them remaining in the area, still call them that. The division was indeed won by Labour, whose candidate I had already known slightly from Arts for Labour, but lost in 1989, and never won since.

Labour’s last win in Elmbridge was indeed Irene Hamilton. She won the second seat in Hersham North in the 2000 all out elections. The Hersham Village Society unseated her in 2003. She died two years ago. Labour were 88 votes from winning a seat in Walton North in the 2016 all outs, but fell back at the next election.

Labour held the Walton on Thames county division from 1981 to 1997 when much to everyone’s surprise they lost it to the Conservatives.

[heslingtonian]

Apr 11, 2020 21:03:37 GMT neilm said:

Were Arts for Labour as annoying as they sound?

Surely pretty much everyone in the Arts was “for Labour” especially in 1989?!

[londonseal80]

Apr 12, 2020 9:58:30 GMT heslingtonian said:

Apr 11, 2020 21:03:37 GMT neilm said:

Were Arts for Labour as annoying as they sound?

Surely pretty much everyone in the Arts was “for Labour” especially in 1989?!

if not for the Liberal dominance, would Labour have started doing well in Richmond in the 1990s. It’s a very left leaning middle class place, Livingstone did win the popular vote in both here and Kingston in 2004, as opposed to in Sutton where like in Bromley and Havering, Norris thrashed Livingstone.

[Pete Whitehead]

Apr 12, 2020 11:00:04 GMT londonseal80 said:

Apr 12, 2020 9:58:30 GMT heslingtonian said:

Surely pretty much everyone in the Arts was “for Labour” especially in 1989?!

if not for the Liberal dominance, would Labour have started doing well in Richmond in the 1990s. It’s a very left leaning middle class place, Livingstone did win the popular vote in both here and Kingston in 2004, as opposed to in Sutton where like in Bromley and Havering, Norris thrashed Livingstone.

Harry Perkins also won in Kingston and Richmond IIRC

[Robert Waller]

Thank you to all those who have suggested corrections and improvements to Esher & Walton, some of which I have tried to satisfy/incorporate.
I have also added another paragraph on the internal elements of the seat.

[londonseal80]

Apr 12, 2020 15:52:21 GMT @barnabymarder said:

Apr 11, 2020 23:13:17 GMT nick10 said:

Labour’s last win in Elmbridge was indeed Irene Hamilton. She won the second seat in Hersham North in the 2000 all out elections. The Hersham Village Society unseated her in 2003. She died two years ago. Labour were 88 votes from winning a seat in Walton North in the 2016 all outs, but fell back at the next election.

Labour held the Walton on Thames county division from 1981 to 1997 when much to everyone’s surprise they lost it to the Conservatives.

thanks for the correction, I was unaware of the closeness in Walton N in 2016 and had forgotten that Walton-on-Thames remained Labour as long as it did. I seem to recall Chertsey holding out a bit longer though in recent years the party has only managed to win Stanwell (on both of the last 2 occasions with help from me, partly because I am friendly with Robert Evans).

Labour did get rather close to winning both Woking North and Epsom West recently, neither of which Labour managed to win a seat of either borough the 1990s.

[heslingtonian]

Apr 12, 2020 15:47:28 GMT @barnabymarder said:

Arts for Labour no longer exists. It was a sort of pressure group, primarily to campaign for a greater attention for a coherent arts policy. It certainly wasn't Red Wedge though it did sometimes put on artistic events & concerts. Inevitably some of the members were slebs. When I was membership secretary the members included Ken Loach, Dame Peggy Ashcroft, Glenda Jackson, Sir Michael Tippett, David Yip and a few more. The committee included Miriam Karlin and Prunella Scales although for some reason her husband Timothy West wasn't a member. It was chaired by Bill Owen, whose politics were a great deal to the left of the other main characters in Last Of The Summer Wine who were Tory voters. The member of the organisation who won Walton-on-Thames was called Daphne Plaskow.

I hadn't heard that Irene had passed away, that's sad news.

Assume you mean the actors in Last of the Summer Wine rather than characters. I believe Frank Thornton was a Conservative but he was a late addition. Michael Aldridge was supposed to be the main Right winger in the cast. Peter Sallis basically said he wasn’t committed to any party and I don’t recall Brian Wilde saying anything political. I wouldn’t want to hazard a guess how Dame Thora voted.