Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 11, 2020 9:25:53 GMT
This constituency name dates back only to 1997 but this seat is recognisably the successor to the North Hertfordshire seat which existed from 1983-1997 (and in similar form as Hitchin from 1974 – the pre-74 Hitchin seat included Stevenage so is less comparable).
Relative to North Hertfordshire this seat lost the area around Hitchin in the West and picked up a swathe of rural territory from East Hertfordshire district, previously contained with the Hertford & Stortford and Stevenage constituencies. This exchange had important electoral consequences as the Conservatives held on by just over 3,000 votes in 1997 – on the old boundaries, North Hertfordshire would most likely have fallen to Labour then.
This constituency, by Hertfordshire standards, covers a vast area, touching the county’s boundaries with Bedfordshire, Cambridgeshire and Essex and stretching far to the South to within a few miles of Greater London. Much of the territory is genuinely and deeply rural and agricultural, again atypical of Hertfordshire. However, a majority of the electorate still live in towns and a third of the total live in Letchworth.
Letchworth is a classically marginal town which will have voted strongly for Labour in 1997 and 2001 but fairly comfortably Conservative in the last four elections. Letchworth was founded by Quakers as the first of the Garden Cities at the beginning of the last century and attracted a ‘progressive’ population.
There has been considerable post-war development including in the form of London overspill estates such as the Grange to the North of the town and the Jackmans estate in the South East. This has contributed to the electoral volatility that typifies New Towns elsewhere in Hertfordshire (and nationally).
The strongest Labour wards here are in Letchworh East and Wilbury which contain a mix of pre- and post-war social housing. East ward has a substantial Asian population which, as in Hitchin, is predominantly Sikh.
The South end of Letchworth tends to be more middle class and Conservative. South West ward contains some fine residential areas, around the Broadway of Garden City vintage, and further out post-war middle-class housing. This had usually been the one reliable Conservative ward in the town but in May last year they lost to the Lib Dems on the drawing of lots.
Letchworth South East combines more middle-class suburban housing and the very affluent village of Willan with the quite deprived Jackmans estate. This ward had appeared to move from marginal to fairly safe Conservative in recent years but in 2018 they lost by 8 votes to Labour and the following year lost a second seat by 13 votes. At the same time as they were losing their strongholds in the South of the town, they won the deprived Grange ward quite easily, though Labour hold the other two seats in that ward.
The other, smaller towns in North Hertfordshire are much more Conservative than Letchworth but not without some electoral variety.
Baldock has an attractive town centre but a good proportion of the housing is council built. Baldock was a Labour leaning marginal in the past but has trended strongly to the Conservatives over the last couple of decades. Baldock East is a newish ward comprising the modern private housing estate of Clothall Common and has also trended Conservative having started life as a Lib Dem ward.
Royston is predominantly Conservative too but has a Labour vote in its Northern ward (Palace) and some history of Lib Dem strength which reappeared recently as they took both seats in the Heath ward in the West of the town.
There is political variety in the rural section of North Herts too. Ermine ward is a typically safe rural ward, but Weston & Sandon has been a very longstanding Lib Dem ward and their councillor achieved nearly 80% of the vote in a four-way contest in May 2019. It’s unlikely that this is replicated in general elections, but that kind of support must carry over a bit. The Lib Dems also gained the previously safe Tory ward of Arbury last year. All this terrain is strongly influenced by Cambridge and appears to have a similar political culture to neighbouring South Cambridgeshire.
There is no electoral diversity to speak of in the East Hertfordshire section of the seat, which accounts for almost a third of the electorate. This area was expanded further in 2010 when it picked up Walkern from Stevenage and a couple more rural parishes from Hertford & Stortford. It comprises dozens of small rural parishes with the only settlements of any size being Buntingford and Standon on the A10 and the commuter village of Watton-at-Stone between Hertford and Stevenage. All of the wards here have been very safely Conservative, often being uncontested. Their total dominance was broken recently though when the Lib Dems gained Watton-at Stone on a huge swing in a by-election and confirmed that gain in the May 2019 elections. As ever local issues and personalities would have been the major factor here and no doubt this ward along with all the others will have voted heavily Conservative in the general election later that year.
The East Hertfordshire section, together with the rural and small town parts of North Herts ensured the Conservatives could withstand the Labour threat posed by Letchworth even in 1997 and 2001 and that in subsequent years this has the character of a fairly standard, safe Home counties Conservative seat.
Most recent local election results (2018/19)
2019 General Election
2017 General Election
2015 General Election
2016 EU referendum (Hanratty estimate)
Relative to North Hertfordshire this seat lost the area around Hitchin in the West and picked up a swathe of rural territory from East Hertfordshire district, previously contained with the Hertford & Stortford and Stevenage constituencies. This exchange had important electoral consequences as the Conservatives held on by just over 3,000 votes in 1997 – on the old boundaries, North Hertfordshire would most likely have fallen to Labour then.
This constituency, by Hertfordshire standards, covers a vast area, touching the county’s boundaries with Bedfordshire, Cambridgeshire and Essex and stretching far to the South to within a few miles of Greater London. Much of the territory is genuinely and deeply rural and agricultural, again atypical of Hertfordshire. However, a majority of the electorate still live in towns and a third of the total live in Letchworth.
Letchworth is a classically marginal town which will have voted strongly for Labour in 1997 and 2001 but fairly comfortably Conservative in the last four elections. Letchworth was founded by Quakers as the first of the Garden Cities at the beginning of the last century and attracted a ‘progressive’ population.
There has been considerable post-war development including in the form of London overspill estates such as the Grange to the North of the town and the Jackmans estate in the South East. This has contributed to the electoral volatility that typifies New Towns elsewhere in Hertfordshire (and nationally).
The strongest Labour wards here are in Letchworh East and Wilbury which contain a mix of pre- and post-war social housing. East ward has a substantial Asian population which, as in Hitchin, is predominantly Sikh.
The South end of Letchworth tends to be more middle class and Conservative. South West ward contains some fine residential areas, around the Broadway of Garden City vintage, and further out post-war middle-class housing. This had usually been the one reliable Conservative ward in the town but in May last year they lost to the Lib Dems on the drawing of lots.
Letchworth South East combines more middle-class suburban housing and the very affluent village of Willan with the quite deprived Jackmans estate. This ward had appeared to move from marginal to fairly safe Conservative in recent years but in 2018 they lost by 8 votes to Labour and the following year lost a second seat by 13 votes. At the same time as they were losing their strongholds in the South of the town, they won the deprived Grange ward quite easily, though Labour hold the other two seats in that ward.
The other, smaller towns in North Hertfordshire are much more Conservative than Letchworth but not without some electoral variety.
Baldock has an attractive town centre but a good proportion of the housing is council built. Baldock was a Labour leaning marginal in the past but has trended strongly to the Conservatives over the last couple of decades. Baldock East is a newish ward comprising the modern private housing estate of Clothall Common and has also trended Conservative having started life as a Lib Dem ward.
Royston is predominantly Conservative too but has a Labour vote in its Northern ward (Palace) and some history of Lib Dem strength which reappeared recently as they took both seats in the Heath ward in the West of the town.
There is political variety in the rural section of North Herts too. Ermine ward is a typically safe rural ward, but Weston & Sandon has been a very longstanding Lib Dem ward and their councillor achieved nearly 80% of the vote in a four-way contest in May 2019. It’s unlikely that this is replicated in general elections, but that kind of support must carry over a bit. The Lib Dems also gained the previously safe Tory ward of Arbury last year. All this terrain is strongly influenced by Cambridge and appears to have a similar political culture to neighbouring South Cambridgeshire.
There is no electoral diversity to speak of in the East Hertfordshire section of the seat, which accounts for almost a third of the electorate. This area was expanded further in 2010 when it picked up Walkern from Stevenage and a couple more rural parishes from Hertford & Stortford. It comprises dozens of small rural parishes with the only settlements of any size being Buntingford and Standon on the A10 and the commuter village of Watton-at-Stone between Hertford and Stevenage. All of the wards here have been very safely Conservative, often being uncontested. Their total dominance was broken recently though when the Lib Dems gained Watton-at Stone on a huge swing in a by-election and confirmed that gain in the May 2019 elections. As ever local issues and personalities would have been the major factor here and no doubt this ward along with all the others will have voted heavily Conservative in the general election later that year.
The East Hertfordshire section, together with the rural and small town parts of North Herts ensured the Conservatives could withstand the Labour threat posed by Letchworth even in 1997 and 2001 and that in subsequent years this has the character of a fairly standard, safe Home counties Conservative seat.
Most recent local election results (2018/19)
| 1. Letchworth Grange | 6. Baldock | 10. Ermine | 14. Buntingford | 19. Mundens & Cottered |
| 2. Letchworth Wilbury | 7. Baldock East | 11. Royston Heath | 15. Braughing | 20. Walkern |
| 3. Letchworth East | 8. Arbury | 12. Royston Palace | 16. Little Hadham | 21. Watton-at-Stone |
| 4. Letchworth South East | 9. Weston & Sandon | 13. Royston Meridian | 17. Thundridge & Standon | 22. Hertford Rural North |
| 5. Letchworth South West | 18. Puckeridge | 23. Hertford Rural South |
2019 General Election
| Con | 31,293 | 56.6% |
| Lab | 13,104 | 23.7% |
| LD | 8,563 | 15.5% |
| Grn | 2,367 | 4.3% |
| Majority | 18,189 | 32.9% |
2017 General Election
| Con | 32,587 | 58.6% |
| Lab | 15,752 | 28.3% |
| LD | 4,276 | 7.7% |
| Grn | 2,965 | 5.3% |
| Majority | 16,835 | 30.3% |
2015 General Election
| Con | 28,949 | 55.4% |
| Lab | 9,869 | 18.9% |
| UKIP | 6,728 | 12.9% |
| LD | 3,952 | 7.6% |
| Grn | 2,789 | 5.2% |
| Majority | 19,080 | 36.5% |
2016 EU referendum (Hanratty estimate)
| Leave | 51.4% | |
| Remain | 48.6% |
% | Rank | % | Rank | % | Rank | % | Rank | ||||
| Owner Occupied | 67.5 | 285 | White | 92.6 | 315 | Christian | 60.0 | 327 | Graduates | 31.2 | 141 |
| Social Rented | 19.5 | 188 | Asian | 3.8 | 265 | Muslim | 0.6 | 364 | No Qualifications | 19.3 | 417 |
| Private Rented | 11.1 | 476 | Black | 1.2 | 224 | Hindu | 0.9 | 237 | |||
| Mixed | 2.0 | 200 | Sikh | 1.4 | 63 | Students | 6.3 | 368 | |||
| Other | 0.4 | 268 | Jewish | 0.3 | 117 | ||||||
| None | 28.9 | 134 | Prof/Man | 41.1 | |||||||
| Routine/ | 22.7 | ||||||||||
| Semi Routine |
