Winchester

[Devil Wincarnate]

I'm going to have a go at this unless tonyhill would prefer to run with this.  I'll throw down some thoughts anyway.

[Devil Wincarnate]

As befits an ancient capital of England, Winchester has been represented since the Model Parliament, even if its boundaries have changed quite significantly during that time. Until 1885, it was a borough constituency, and covered a large section of Hampshire. Winchester is the county town, even if the shire itself was once known as the County of Southampton. In earlier times, the constituency was held by several notable figures. Thomas Fleming was one of the judges of Guy Fawkes. Sir John Lisle represented the seat during the English Civil War, and was a regicide of Charles I, being later murdered in Lausanne by royalist agents. It was also briefly held by Henry Temple, better known as the father of the later prime minister Lord Palmerston.

Since the emergence of the modern party system, the seat has broadly been a Conservative-Liberal battleground, a trend that was interrupted in the middle part of the twentieth century but has re-emerged and continued well into the twenty-first century. In the mid-to-late nineteenth century and early twentieth, the names Bonham-Carter and Baring crop up repeatedly. John Bonham-Carter was the Whig and then Liberal MP for the seat, who married into the Barings. Francis Baring briefly represented the seat for the Liberals alongside several Tories. The last of this axis was Guy Baring, a Conservative this time, who held the seat between 1906 and his death at the Somme in 1916. Ironically, another Bonham-Carter (Arthur) also fell at the Somme.

Conservative dominance remained until 1945, when the Attlee landslide carried the venerable cathedral city with it. The losing Tory member, Gerald Palmer, never returned to politics but instead became a renowned scholar and translator of Greek Orthodox philosophy and Modern Greek poetry. His replacement was George Jeger, brother-in-law of the formidable Lena Jeger. Jeger lasted one term, having arranged a chicken-run to Goole, and the seat reverted to the Conservatives.   Labour were not helped by the removal of Eastleigh to form its own seat- the railway town had been a key source of Labour votes, and indeed the new Eastleigh seat would be a Tory-Labour marginal for several subsequent elections.  The constituency was represented by a succession of interesting characters. Peter Smithers, a former diplomat alleged to be an inspiration for James Bond, served until 1964. He was succeeded by the remarkable Rear-Admiral Morgan Morgan-Giles, a decorated war hero whom even Tito considered a bit of a hard man, and who later helped save HMS Belfast. The Liberals re-emerged as regular contenders for the race for a distant second place around this time.

After the retirement of Morgan-Giles, the Conservative position began to degenerate. His successor, John Browne, served from 1979 until his de-selection in 1992, at which point he made the first of two failed bids to return as an independent. During his tenure, the Social Democrats emerged as the major challengers, setting the base for heavy Lib Dem challenges in the Nineties. At this point, Winchester's hitherto rather dull political scene burst on to the national stage. In 1997, having lost the seat to the Lib Dems by 2 votes, the Tory incumbent Gerald Malone launched an electoral petition and a by-election was called. His Lib Dem replacement, a former SDP councillor from Watford named Mark Oaten, turned a 2 vote majority into one of over 21,000. Labour were annihilated and scored less than 2% of the vote. The two Winchester contests also led indirectly to the Registration of Political Parties Act of 1998, after one Richard Huggett carried out two more of his efforts of running as a "Literal Democrat" and similar- indeed, he had initially attempted to run under the name "Gerald Maclone".

Oaten was a high-profile MP, helped no doubt by being part of the largest third-party caucus in Parliament for decades. After two more successes in Winchester, he made an aborted attempt to become Lib Dem leader in 2006, but withdrew due to lack of support. Shortly afterwards, however, lurid stories about his private life emerged in the press, and he announced he would not stand at the next election. By this point, the city council elections were showing a great deal of volatility between Conservatives and Lib Dems, and the stage was set for the most competitive contest in many years.

In 2010, the seat looked very different, and now consisted of the City of Winchester wards plus four relatively Conservative-leaning, affluent wards in the Chandlers Ford area of Eastleigh. The redrawn constituency was won with a 3,048 majority by the Conservative Steve Brine, who was re-elected with larger majorities in 2015 and 2017. However, the seat became unexpectedly dramatic. In a constituency that voted 58.1% Remain in 2016 and featuring a heavy Lib Dem presence, it was inevitable that this would prove difficult for a pro-Leave MP. However, Brine also found himself temporarily expelled from the party for voting for a bill aimed at preventing a no-deal outcome. Re-admitted, Brine's majority was reduced to just 985 in December 2019.

The seat is relatively affluent, and is considered a Conservative-Lib Dem marginal, a status that shows little sign of changing imminently. Labour strength has dissipated and is these days most associated with the Winnall area to the north-east of the city proper. The last ward held by Labour here, St. Johns and All Saints, was lost to the Conservatives in 2015, and Labour trailed the Greens in their city-wide vote tally in 2019.

[tonyhill]

Much better than I would have managed! I will try to add a few things when I have finished my year end accounts.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Apr 11, 2020 6:16:29 GMT tonyhill said:

Much better than I would have managed! I will try to add a few things when I have finished my year end accounts.

Thank you! What would be really helpful would be if you were able to provide some colour around the re-emergence of the Liberals and the rise of the SDP etc, as my narrative loses a bit of continuity and explanation there I think.

[The Bishop]

Might be worth a mention that the sole Labour win in 1945 came when the seat included Eastleigh, which might not make much difference now but certainly did then.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Apr 11, 2020 11:59:41 GMT The Bishop said:

Might be worth a mention that the sole Labour win in 1945 came when the seat included Eastleigh, which might not make much difference now but certainly did then.

Good point, thanks for that- added.

[tonyhill]

Winchester's boundaries have, since the removal of Eastleigh in 1955, been rather akin to a clock centred on the City itself, firstly taking in Romsey between 1955 and 1970, and then for the two elections of 1974, and 1979 dumping Romsey and taking in Andover. For the 1983, 1987 and 1992 elections Andover was replaced by Alton. In 1997, 2001 and 2005 the Constituency boundary was co-terminous with the City Council boundary, but this changed again in 2010 when the Meon Valley seat took out the southern and eastern parishes and replaced them with Chandler's Ford, the remaining foothold for the Conservatives in Eastleigh Borough.

[Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells]

Stats update:
Owner-occupied - 68.6%, 265/650
Private rented - 13.7%, 351/650
Social rented - 15.1%, 348/650
White - 94.4%, 335/650
Black - 0.5%, 381/650
Asian - 3.2%, 300/650
Managerial & professional - 43.8%
Routine & Semi-routine - 16.3%
Degree level - 41.0%, 39/650
No qualifications - 13.8%, 626/650
Students - 12.5%, 93/650
Age 65+ - 19.3%,165/650

[Robert Waller]

2021 Census

Owner occupied 67.7% 240/573
Private rented 17.3% 333/573
Social rented 15.0% 299/573
White 91.4%
Black 0.8%
Asian 4.5%
Managerial & professional 45.1% 37/573
Routine & Semi-routine 15.1% 524/573
Degree level 45.9% 56/573
No qualifications 10.5% 559/573

[Pete Whitehead]

The proposed boundary changes return the Chandlers Ford area to Eastleigh and replace it with Bishops Waltham, Droxford and the Meon Valley from Meon Valley. This brings the boundaries of the constituency closer to those of the district and to the pre-2010 boundaries and will be mildly helpful to the Conservatives.

2019 Notional Result

Con	30553	51.5%
LD	24544	41.4%
Lab	3426	5.8%
Grn	547	0.9%
Oth	227	0.4%
Majority	6009	10.1%

[Robert Waller]

I notice that no one including myself put up the 2019 election results

Compared with Pete's notionals, the boundary changes look to me a little more than mildly helpful to the Conservatives in this marginal seat


General Election 2019: Winchester

Party Candidate Votes % ±%

Conservative Steve Brine 28,430 48.3 –3.7
Liberal Democrats Paula Ferguson 27,445 46.6 +12.1
Labour George Baker 2,723 4.6 –5.9
Justice & Anti-Corruption Teresa Skelton 292 0.5 +0.2

C Majority 985 1.7 –15.8

2019 electorate 75,582

Turnout 58,890 77.9 –1.1

Conservative hold

Swing 7.9 C to LD

[batman]

Well obviously it's a notable increase in the majority. But the seat is still extremely vulnerable even with the boundary change. Perhaps that's what Pete's choice of words means

[Pete Whitehead]

Dec 14, 2022 8:46:42 GMT batman said:

Well obviously it's a notable increase in the majority. But the seat is still extremely vulnerable even with the boundary change. Perhaps that's what Pete's choice of words means

To a point yes thats what I meant, also that the areas incoming from Meon Valley probably have a bit more Lib Dem potential than might have been realised when they were in Meon Valley and weren't worked so much. To be honest though I usually glance at the 2019 result that Robert or someone else has posted on the thread and as there wasn't I misremembered how close it was here. I thought the Conservatvies were ahead by about 5%..

[batman]

Meon Valley was thought to be a Lib Dem prospect in 2010, but (in a very similar fashion to the very different seat of Central Devon) just never behaved as some thought it might do, and both seats have been completely safe for the Tories since they were formed in the event

[Pete Whitehead]

The notional results in both seats for 2005 were quite close - almost certainly correctly, but misleadingly, because they were based largely on the personal vote of sitting Lib Dem MPs (in Teignbridge, Winchester etc) which weren't going to be available in the new seats. In the case of Meon Vally, 42% of the electorate came from Winchester which was still quite safely Lib Dem in 2005. The area coming in also included some very strong Lib Dem areas in Whiteley and Wickham. These areas are not amongst those being returned to Winchester

[tonyhill]

Not surprisingly the LibDems are working Bishops Waltham and Droxford hard, and Meon Valley was an easy Green gain from Conservative this. Although Chandler's Ford looks solidly LibDem from the local elections it is the area that gave Steve Brine his majority in 2010 and 2019.