Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 9, 2020 19:29:41 GMT
Hitchin & Harpenden
This constituency was a new creation ahead of the 1997 election with around half the electorate coming from North Hertfordshire district (around Hitchin) and half from St Albans (around Harpenden).
Another way to look at this is that about a third of the electorate live in Hitchin, a third in Harpenden and a third in the more or less rural areas around and between the two towns.
All of the North Herts section of the seat was formerly in the North Hertfordshire constituency (previously called Hitchin) but the larger part of that constituency survives in the form of NE Hertfordshire.
Harpenden, Redbourn and Sandridge were previously in the St Albans constituency while Wheathampstead had been part of Welwyn Hatfield constituency from 1983 to 1997.
This really does have the look of a seat which was made up of the leftover bits after other seats had been drawn and where Herts needed an 11th seat. There is really no connection between the two named towns, certainly no direct road links, though both are somewhat within the orbit of Luton.
Peter Lilley followed Harpenden, the most Conservative part of his old St Albans seat, to this constituency in 1997, ensuring another 20 years in his long and distinguished parliamentary career before being replaced in 2017 by Bim Afolami (much admired by Devil Wincarnate )
Hitchin is slightly the largest town in this constituency – an old market town which gave it’s name to a constituency between 1885 and 1983 but this covered a much larger area of North Herts and Labour was competitive due to the inclusion of other towns such as Letchworth and Stevenage.
Hitchin generally provided more of a Conservative counterweight back then but unusually for Hertfordshire this is a town that has trended away from the Tories in recent years and will clearly be the major source of Labour support in this constituency. The strongest Labour area is Oughton ward in the NW of the town which is dominated by the quite deprived Westmill estate. Oughton has always been a safe Labour ward even being comfortably Labour in poor years like 2008.
Bearton in the NE is almost as strong for Labour now though this has not always been the case. This is a part of Hitchin that has trended strongly in Labour’s favour and this is likely connected with the quite substantial Asian population (including, unusually for Herts, a large Sikh community). Walsworth to the East appears to be following a similar trajectory. Another factor in the leftward drift in Hitchin is the increasing popularity of the town with commuters not only to London but also to Cambridge (and also there is some Luton influence here).
The Southern end of Hitchin is generally whiter, more middle-class and more Conservative but the only real Tory stronghold here is Priory ward covering the very affluent South West of the town. Even here they were run fairly close by the Lib Dems the last time the ward went to the polls in 2018. Highbury, which is a little more mixed and includes the town centre, had been a Conservative Lib Dem marginal for many years, always closely fought. The Conservatives had gained all three seats from the Lib Dems between 2012 and 2015 and in the subsequent three elections the Lib Dems regained all three seats. On the last occasion in May 2019 though the Lib Dems outpolled the Conservatives by more than three to one. This ward is also the base of Sam Collins who was the Lib Dem candidate for this constituency in 2019 and performed so strongly. Clearly, he would have been ahead in this ward then – in fact, given the consistent and considerable non-Conservative majority in the town (there is a sizeable Green vote in local elections as well) and that Labour were squeezed down so effectively, it’s quite plausible that the Lib Dems won a plurality of votes in Hitchin as a whole in December.
There are pockets of local Lib Dem support elsewhere in the North Herts section of the seat. Chesfield, between Hitchin and Stevenage has consistently split its representation between the Conservatives and Lib Dems in recent years, though the Conservatives won comfortably here in their otherwise dire elections in May last year. This ward is not primarily rural as it is dominated by the newish housing estates of Great Ashby on the outskirts of Stevenage. In those elections the Lib Dems did gain the Cadwell ward which mostly comprises the village of Ickleford, just North of Hitchin. This had always previously been a very safe Conservative ward and its likely that local issues were the major factor here and that this ward would have returned to its usual allegiance in December.
The other rural areas are as solidly Conservative as would be expected. The HItchwood, Offa & Hoo ward covers a vast area between Hitchin, Stevenage and Luton and includes numerous hamlets and villages such as Whitwell, St Ippolyts, Great Offley and the appropriately named Lilley. There had been some pockets of a rural Labour vote here in the distant past, but this has been an overwhelmingly Conservative ward for many years. Even more so is Kimpton on the border with St Albans district.
The St Albans district half of the seat is far less heterogeneous socially and politically. There is no Labour support to speak of here and the Lib Dems currently have no councillors in the area with the only opposition to the Conservatives being provided by a couple of Independents in Redbourn.
Harpenden indeed is one of the wealthiest and most middle-class towns in the country. There is extreme wealth in parts of the town, such as around the commons – the West Common area is home to serious mansions, though there is the annoying American habit of people buying beautiful 1920s houses, knocking them down and building modern monstrosities in their place.
Most of the rest of the town is merely very affluent. There are of course pockets of relatively downmarket housing, principally in the rather working-class suburb of Batford, across the Lea from Harpenden proper in Harpenden East ward. There is a council estate in Westfield up in the North of the town (North ward) and the slightly grotty area of Southdown, which is er.. down in the South but split between the South and West wards where it is swamped by upmarket terrain.
The South and West wards of Harpenden are massive Tory strongholds which have seen only a modest weakening in post-referendum local elections. North and (especially) East have historically been a bit more competitive with the Lib Dems often winning in the 1990s and up until a decade ago when the Conservatives established dominance. The Lib Dems did come fairly close in May 2019 in these two wards though. Here we have the paradox as in much of Hertfordshire, that Lib Dem local support is traditionally strongest in more socially downmarket areas but that these were also the strongest Leave voting areas. The Lib Dem advance at the recent general election was mainly due to the issue of Brexit, in a constituency which voted heavily Remain, so it’s difficult to say how this played out in the individual wards. As likely as not the surge to the Lib Dems was stronger in the more safely Conservative (and more strongly Remain) South and West wards. Nevertheless, it’s likely the Conservatives won a majority of votes still in Harpenden.
The remaining wards in St Albans district are not so different in their social and political make-up to Harpenden. Redbourn and Wheathamsptead are large commuter villages which dominate the wards which bear their names though there are other small communities such as Kinsbourne Green and Childiwickbury in Redbourn and Gustard Wood and Aldwickbury in Wheathampstead.
Sandridge ward includes the village of that name but is actually dominated by the large, newish private housing estate of Jersey Farm on the edge of St Albans.
Notwithstanding occasional Independent victories in Redbourn in local elections, all these wards are fairly solidly Conservative though all have some history of marginality – when the Lib Dems previously had a majority on St Albans council they were able to win seats in these wards and having fallen back badly in the last decade, they did become competitive again in Wheathampstead last May. Undoubtedly these wards will have played their part in the Lib Dem surge at the general election, but as in Harpenden, the Conservatives will surely at least have maintained a healthy plurality.
The Lib Dem advance here in 2019 was quite phenomenal and the Conservative majority is now lower in percentage terms than it has ever been. Still the Conservative vote is not far shy of 50% and the remaining Labour vote may prove harder to squeeze than it was in St Albans. Presumably this will now count as a Lib Dem target seat but it seems more likely that some recovery by both Labour and the Conservatives will see this return to relative safety, even if the 20k majority achieved in 2015 may not be repeated any time soon.
Map shows the results of the May 2019 local elections (or 2018 where that was the most recent result)
2019 General election
2017 General election
2015 General election
2016 EU Referendum
This constituency was a new creation ahead of the 1997 election with around half the electorate coming from North Hertfordshire district (around Hitchin) and half from St Albans (around Harpenden).
Another way to look at this is that about a third of the electorate live in Hitchin, a third in Harpenden and a third in the more or less rural areas around and between the two towns.
All of the North Herts section of the seat was formerly in the North Hertfordshire constituency (previously called Hitchin) but the larger part of that constituency survives in the form of NE Hertfordshire.
Harpenden, Redbourn and Sandridge were previously in the St Albans constituency while Wheathampstead had been part of Welwyn Hatfield constituency from 1983 to 1997.
This really does have the look of a seat which was made up of the leftover bits after other seats had been drawn and where Herts needed an 11th seat. There is really no connection between the two named towns, certainly no direct road links, though both are somewhat within the orbit of Luton.
Peter Lilley followed Harpenden, the most Conservative part of his old St Albans seat, to this constituency in 1997, ensuring another 20 years in his long and distinguished parliamentary career before being replaced in 2017 by Bim Afolami (much admired by Devil Wincarnate )
Hitchin is slightly the largest town in this constituency – an old market town which gave it’s name to a constituency between 1885 and 1983 but this covered a much larger area of North Herts and Labour was competitive due to the inclusion of other towns such as Letchworth and Stevenage.
Hitchin generally provided more of a Conservative counterweight back then but unusually for Hertfordshire this is a town that has trended away from the Tories in recent years and will clearly be the major source of Labour support in this constituency. The strongest Labour area is Oughton ward in the NW of the town which is dominated by the quite deprived Westmill estate. Oughton has always been a safe Labour ward even being comfortably Labour in poor years like 2008.
Bearton in the NE is almost as strong for Labour now though this has not always been the case. This is a part of Hitchin that has trended strongly in Labour’s favour and this is likely connected with the quite substantial Asian population (including, unusually for Herts, a large Sikh community). Walsworth to the East appears to be following a similar trajectory. Another factor in the leftward drift in Hitchin is the increasing popularity of the town with commuters not only to London but also to Cambridge (and also there is some Luton influence here).
The Southern end of Hitchin is generally whiter, more middle-class and more Conservative but the only real Tory stronghold here is Priory ward covering the very affluent South West of the town. Even here they were run fairly close by the Lib Dems the last time the ward went to the polls in 2018. Highbury, which is a little more mixed and includes the town centre, had been a Conservative Lib Dem marginal for many years, always closely fought. The Conservatives had gained all three seats from the Lib Dems between 2012 and 2015 and in the subsequent three elections the Lib Dems regained all three seats. On the last occasion in May 2019 though the Lib Dems outpolled the Conservatives by more than three to one. This ward is also the base of Sam Collins who was the Lib Dem candidate for this constituency in 2019 and performed so strongly. Clearly, he would have been ahead in this ward then – in fact, given the consistent and considerable non-Conservative majority in the town (there is a sizeable Green vote in local elections as well) and that Labour were squeezed down so effectively, it’s quite plausible that the Lib Dems won a plurality of votes in Hitchin as a whole in December.
There are pockets of local Lib Dem support elsewhere in the North Herts section of the seat. Chesfield, between Hitchin and Stevenage has consistently split its representation between the Conservatives and Lib Dems in recent years, though the Conservatives won comfortably here in their otherwise dire elections in May last year. This ward is not primarily rural as it is dominated by the newish housing estates of Great Ashby on the outskirts of Stevenage. In those elections the Lib Dems did gain the Cadwell ward which mostly comprises the village of Ickleford, just North of Hitchin. This had always previously been a very safe Conservative ward and its likely that local issues were the major factor here and that this ward would have returned to its usual allegiance in December.
The other rural areas are as solidly Conservative as would be expected. The HItchwood, Offa & Hoo ward covers a vast area between Hitchin, Stevenage and Luton and includes numerous hamlets and villages such as Whitwell, St Ippolyts, Great Offley and the appropriately named Lilley. There had been some pockets of a rural Labour vote here in the distant past, but this has been an overwhelmingly Conservative ward for many years. Even more so is Kimpton on the border with St Albans district.
The St Albans district half of the seat is far less heterogeneous socially and politically. There is no Labour support to speak of here and the Lib Dems currently have no councillors in the area with the only opposition to the Conservatives being provided by a couple of Independents in Redbourn.
Harpenden indeed is one of the wealthiest and most middle-class towns in the country. There is extreme wealth in parts of the town, such as around the commons – the West Common area is home to serious mansions, though there is the annoying American habit of people buying beautiful 1920s houses, knocking them down and building modern monstrosities in their place.
Most of the rest of the town is merely very affluent. There are of course pockets of relatively downmarket housing, principally in the rather working-class suburb of Batford, across the Lea from Harpenden proper in Harpenden East ward. There is a council estate in Westfield up in the North of the town (North ward) and the slightly grotty area of Southdown, which is er.. down in the South but split between the South and West wards where it is swamped by upmarket terrain.
The South and West wards of Harpenden are massive Tory strongholds which have seen only a modest weakening in post-referendum local elections. North and (especially) East have historically been a bit more competitive with the Lib Dems often winning in the 1990s and up until a decade ago when the Conservatives established dominance. The Lib Dems did come fairly close in May 2019 in these two wards though. Here we have the paradox as in much of Hertfordshire, that Lib Dem local support is traditionally strongest in more socially downmarket areas but that these were also the strongest Leave voting areas. The Lib Dem advance at the recent general election was mainly due to the issue of Brexit, in a constituency which voted heavily Remain, so it’s difficult to say how this played out in the individual wards. As likely as not the surge to the Lib Dems was stronger in the more safely Conservative (and more strongly Remain) South and West wards. Nevertheless, it’s likely the Conservatives won a majority of votes still in Harpenden.
The remaining wards in St Albans district are not so different in their social and political make-up to Harpenden. Redbourn and Wheathamsptead are large commuter villages which dominate the wards which bear their names though there are other small communities such as Kinsbourne Green and Childiwickbury in Redbourn and Gustard Wood and Aldwickbury in Wheathampstead.
Sandridge ward includes the village of that name but is actually dominated by the large, newish private housing estate of Jersey Farm on the edge of St Albans.
Notwithstanding occasional Independent victories in Redbourn in local elections, all these wards are fairly solidly Conservative though all have some history of marginality – when the Lib Dems previously had a majority on St Albans council they were able to win seats in these wards and having fallen back badly in the last decade, they did become competitive again in Wheathampstead last May. Undoubtedly these wards will have played their part in the Lib Dem surge at the general election, but as in Harpenden, the Conservatives will surely at least have maintained a healthy plurality.
The Lib Dem advance here in 2019 was quite phenomenal and the Conservative majority is now lower in percentage terms than it has ever been. Still the Conservative vote is not far shy of 50% and the remaining Labour vote may prove harder to squeeze than it was in St Albans. Presumably this will now count as a Lib Dem target seat but it seems more likely that some recovery by both Labour and the Conservatives will see this return to relative safety, even if the 20k majority achieved in 2015 may not be repeated any time soon.
Map shows the results of the May 2019 local elections (or 2018 where that was the most recent result)
| 1. Hitchin Oughton | 6. Cadwell | 10. Wheathampstead | 13. Harpenden East |
| 2. Hitchin Bearton | 7. Chesfield | 11. Sandridge | 14. Harpenden North |
| 3. Hitchin Walsworth | 8. Hitchwood, Offa & Hoo | 12. Redbourn | 15. Harpenden South |
| 4. Hitchin Highbury | 9.Kimpton | 16. Harpenden West | |
| 5. Hitchin Priory |
2019 General election
| Con | 27,719 | 47.1% |
| LD | 20,824 | 35.4% |
| Lab | 9,959 | 16.9% |
| CPA | 268 | 0.5% |
| Adv | 101 | 0.2% |
| Majority | 6,895 | 11.7% |
2017 General election
| Con | 31,189 | 53.1% |
| Lab | 19,158 | 32.6% |
| LD | 6,236 | 10.6% |
| Grn | 1,329 | 2.3% |
| Ind | 629 | 1.1% |
| CPA | 242 | 0.4% |
| Majority | 12,031 | 20.5% |
2015 General election
| Con | 31,488 | 56.9% |
| Lab | 11,433 | 20.6% |
| UKIP | 4,917 | 8.9% |
| LD | 4,484 | 8.1% |
| Grn | 3,053 | 5.5% |
| Majority | 20,055 | 36.2% |
2016 EU Referendum
| Remain | 60.2% | |
| Leave | 39.8% |
% | Rank | % | Rank | % | Rank | % | Rank | ||||
| Owner Occupied | 71.9 | 150 | White | 90.4 | 354 | Christian | 60.1 | 325 | Graduates | 43.1 | 29 |
| Social Rented | 13.1 | 373 | Asian | 4.7 | 231 | Muslim | 1.4 | 269 | No Qualifications | 14.0 | 545 |
| Private Rented | 13.2 | 358 | Black | 1.8 | 178 | Hindu | 1.0 | 178 | |||
| Mixed | 2.6 | 146 | Sikh | 1.2 | 74 | Students | 6.6 | 312 | |||
| Other | 0.5 | 231 | Jewish | 0.4 | 86 | ||||||
| None | 27.8 | 183 | Prof/Man | 51.5 | |||||||
| Routine/ | 16.3 | ||||||||||
| Semi Routine |
